Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday July, 28

Vegas Experts

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees

The Boston Red Sox will hand the ball to Jon Lester on Saturday afternoon as they try to upend A.L. East leading Yankees. Good Luck with that, Lester has been anything but sharp for the Red Sox lately going 0-3 with a 15.32 ERA his last three on the hill. If that were not enough to consider a 'Play-Against' Boston, the Red Sox have dropped four straight vs Yankees with their left-hander. With New York Yankees' southpaw C.C. Sabathia on the mark in two starts since coming off the disabled list allowing just three runs over 13 innings of work striking out 12 while walking just 2 batters got to stick with Yankees here. Keep in mind, these lefty vs lefty starter situations at the Stadium have been a terrific spot for Yankee backers as Bombers have nailed visitors with solid left-hooks winning 9-of-11 including 6-1 this season. Look for Yankees to move to 7-1 vs Red Sox this season.

Scott Rickenbach

Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Play: Over 9.5

Detroit takes on the Blue Jays in Toronto in Game Two of this three game weekend series. Toronto is scoring 5.1 runs per game at home this year, 5.7 runs per game their past seven games overall and 5.7 runs per game in day games this year. Toronto is allowing 6.3 runs per game their past seven games overall. Henderson Alvarez is 1-1 with a 7.41 ERA his last 3 starts. Sanchez is 0-1 with a 16.22 ERA in his one starts vs Toronto in his career. The Over is 4-0-2 last 6 games overall for Toronto. The Over is 6-0-1 last 7 games when Toronto is a home underdog. The Over is 5-1 last 6 games overall when Alvarez starts. The Over is 5-1-1 last 7 meetings between these two in Toronto. We'll have plenty of scoring this afternoon.

Rob Vinciletti

St Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: St Louis Cardinals

The Cards fit a tight system here tonight that plays on road favorites off a road favored win by 2 or more runs while scoring 5 or more runs and had no errors in the game, vs an opponent off a home dog loss by 2 or more runs and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits with no more than 1 error committed. These two teams are headed in opposite directions as St. Louis is scoring 6.5 runs per game the past week, while the Cubs are scoring 2.5 and hitting around .200 in that same time span. The Cubs have lost 13 of 16 on Saturday, while the Cardinals are 8-3 of late vs losing teams. In the pitching matchup the Cubs have J. Samardzija going and he has a 5.40 era vs the Cardinals and has allowed 13 earned runs in 16 innings against them. The Cards counter with Kelly and he has a solid 2.78 era this season. Look for St. Louis to take another from the Cubs in early action.

Jesse Schule

Tampa Bay vs. LA Angels
Pick: Under

The Devil Rays come into LA having lost three of their last five games, four of those five saw the total go under the listed number. They will send highly touted Matt Moore to the mound today, coming off an excellent outing. He is 2-2 in his last five starts, and four of those games saw the total come up short of the number.

Moore (6-7, 4.23 ERA) has been good in his last two starts, although he is coming off a tough loss. He allowed two runs on five hits over eight innings in a 2-1 loss to Seattle. Prior to that, he gave up a pair of runs on just three hits, over five innings, winning by a score of 4-2 over the Tribe. He hasn't allowed any home runs in any of his last four starts. The kid should do alright in a pitcher friendly park in LA, despite facing a tough Angels team tonight.

The Angels will counter with C.J. Wilson, who got a win in his last start. Wilson (9-6, 2.89 ERA) allowed three runs on nine hits over six innings in a 6-3 home victory over the Royals his last time out.

Wilson has had success against the Devil Rays in the past, and BJ Upton has gone 0 for 14 against the left-hander in his career. Luke Scott and Ben Zobrist haven't hit him well either, Scott is 1 for 5, and Zobrist is 4 for 19. As a team, Tampa is hitting just .156 against Wilson.

I smell a pitcher's duel brewing in LA on Saturday night.

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati vs. Colorado
Play: Cincinnati

When the Reds send Johnny Cueto to the mound against Christian Friedrich and the Rockies at Coors Field Saturday night Cincinnati will take the filed knowing the Rockies' rookie has been roughed up of late, losing 8 of his last 9 team starts. Friedrich has also struggled in this park where his home ERA (8.23) is nearly 4.5 runs worse than his road ERA (3.77) this season. With that look for the Rockies to fall to 6-27 on weekends this season here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cincinnati.

Dave Cokin

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Washington Nationals

Jordan Zimmermann continues to be a quality start machine for Washington, while Randy Wolf is far less reliable for the Brewers. If it's still close late, massive edge for the road team's bullpen. The Nationals are today's free play.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves have one of the two Wild Card spot as of today, tied with Pittsburgh and 1 1/2 games ahead of the Cardinals. Can't say the same for the Phillies, which are now 10 1/2 back after losing to the Braves on Friday, 6-1. The Braves hadn't done well against Philadelphia at home before Friday, losing five of the previous six in Atlanta. Philly also hasn't done well against the NL East this year, posting a 11-23 mark. The Phillies also haven't done too well against lefthanded starters, going 12-20 this season and averaging just 3.4 runs/game. Joe Blanton is 8-8 for Philadelphia with a 4.70 ERA. He will face Mike Minor of the Braves, who is 5-7 with a 5.49 ERA. Minor has pitched well of late, posting a 2.33 ERA in his last three starts with a 0.828 WHIP. For all intents and purposes, Philadelphia is out of the race this year, but the Braves need these games to keep the Cardinals and Dodgers back in the Wild Card. Take the Braves.

Scott Spreitzer

Washington -122

The Nats look to bounce back following last night's 6-0 shutout loss in Milwaukee. Bouncing back has been their style, going 8-2 the last 10 times off a loss. Sending Jordan Zimmerman to the hill is a great start to getting back in the win column. The righthander has made 10 straight quality starts and he owns a 2.08 ERA & 1.09 WHIP in 10 road starts this season. His team is on a 6-0 run on the road when Zimmerman faces a team with a losing record. They're also on a 6-1 run when he throws on just four days rest. Milwaukee got the win last night, but they have not been lighting it up against righties, losing six straight against RH starters. The Brewers are on a 7-23 slide as a home dog priced from +1.10 to +1.50 and they're 0-6 when Randy Wolf takes the hill with the same line range. After a rare loss last night by Washington, I'm betting they'll make it 9-2 in their last 11 off a loss.

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Calgary -2

We are backing the home side Stampeders, who have rallied around Kevin Glenn following the news that newly appointed franchise quarterback Drew Tate would be finished for the season. Glenn exploded last week, in a stunning 41-38 comeback victory over the Rough Riders, throwing for over 380 yards and four touchdowns. Following two heartbreaking weeks of blown leads and losses to Toronto and Montreal on the road, Calgary was able to respond with an incredible home win in front of their fans. They will continue to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers Nik Lewis, and RB Jon Cornish and if they can, the plays will come and they will move to 3-0 on home field.

The Lions have been struggling to score in recent weeks, BC only managed 20 points in Saskatchewan in their lone road game this season in a 23-20 loss, and followed that up with a 14 pt stinker in the 27-14 loss at home to Edmonton. With a full injured list including half their secondary and the ugly, ugly suspension of DT Khalif Mitchell, BC is reeling, losing two straight and we don't see a trip to Calgary where they are 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 head to head meetings, will be able to fix everything wrong with this team. Take the Stamps with the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +106 over SAN FRANCISCO

Barry Zito is 8-6 with an ERA of 3.75. What that confirms is that luck plays a big role in the surface stats of numerous pitchers. When you look under the hood, the truth about these pitchers is revealed and eventually they all get exposed.

Zito has issued 50 walks and struck out 66 in 113 innings for an awful BB/K ratio and just as awful strikeout rate. He has a slight fly-ball bias profile to go along with an xERA of 4.91. Zito has four quality starts in his past five games and it simply cannot last. This is not a rejuvenated pitcher, it’s an extremely lucky one with an 82% strand rate and that has seen balls being hit right at people all season long with men on base.

The Dodgers took the opener last night, 5-3. They’ve seen Zito twice already this year and they’re much more dangerous now with Hanley Ramirez in the lineup. Pitchers now have to deal with a 3-4-5 of Matt Kemp, Andre Either and Ramirez. Chad Billingsley picked up right where he left off since missing two weeks with elbow inflammation, throwing a gem against a difficult opponent in St. Louis He's posted xERA's under 4.00 every month except for May, and he’s displayed a resurgent strikeout rate this year with 104 K’s in 111 innings. Barry Zito should not be favored over Chad Billingsley.

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is the Cincinnati Reds on the Run Line over the Colorado Rockies.

Cincy won their 8th in a row last night, blanking Colorado 3-0, as the Reds have gone 9-2 now without MLP candidate Joey Votto in their lineup.

Look for the Colorado bats to stay silent again tonight, as Cincinnati hurler Johnny Cueto has been dealing to a tune of just 3 earned runs allowed his last 18-plus frames of work.

Cueto has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 8 starts, so it becomes easy to imagine the Rockies bats swinging and missing tonight at plenty of Cueto's nasty offerings.

Christian Friedrich will oppose, and his 8.23 ERA this season at Coors Field is certainly inviting for the Cincinnati hitters.

Reds continue to roll, as the last place in the N.L. West Rockies absorb another lopsided loss.

4* CINCINNATI -1.5

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s look at the San Francisco Giants to bounce back and get a win against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Barry Zito starts for the Giants and he’s had a decent season, going 8-6 with a 3.75 ERA. In his last three starts, he is 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA. In 19 innings, he has given up only seven runs.

His last time out against the Dodgers was June 25 and he gave up no runs in seven innings as the Giants won at home, 8-0. Look for a similar game today.

For the Dodgers, Chad Billingsley starts and he has been inconsistent this season. He is 1-2 in his last three starts. The last time he faced the Giants, he lost, 3-0 as he pitched six innings and gave up three runs.

The extra-inning win Friday night snapped a three-game losing streak for the Dodgers. Look for the Dodgers to have a tough time against Zito on the road.

Take the Giants.

3* GIANTS

MATT RIVERS

Your free play winner for Saturday is to look for the runs to (once again) add up in the Red Sox-Yankees contest.

Last night the teams combined for 13 runs and yet another Over in their season series rivalry. 7 games now played between the clubs, 5 of those 7 have landed Over the total.

No reason to think this afternoon's affair is suddenly going to turn into a pitcher's duel, even though CC Sabathia sports an under 2 ERA for his last 3 starts. In fact, 2 of Sabathia's last 3 starts have ended up playing Over the total.

For the season, 11 of CC's 17 starts have ended up playing Over the total.

Then there is woeful Jon Lester. Lester has an over 15 ERA for his last 3 starts, with each of those 3 playing Over the total, and 4 of his last 5 starts overall landing Over the total.

Just cannot trust Lester to right his ship this afternoon against the Yankees who did hit 3 home runs among their 10 hits on Friday night.

Another Red Sox-Yankees game, another Over.

3* OVER

CRAIG DAVIS

As for today's free play, I"m taking the Yankees over Boston in another game I don't expect to be close.

After last night's 10-3 blowout, there's no reason why that same type of game can't happen again.

New York batted .319 and finished with 49 runs in winning five of the first six against Boston this season, and last night continued their hitting domination in a 10-3 home win over the Red Sox on Friday.

Curtis Granderson had three hits. Even Ichiro got into the act, going 1 for 4 with two runs scored.

Folks, I've seen two teams heading in complete opposite directions. The Red Sox are done. Sorry Red Sox fans. but this pitching staff is horrendous while New York's bats are simply too good and continue to make Boston pitching look really bad.

Granderson, mentioned earlier, is 10 for 25 against the Red Sox this season.

Boston starter Jon Lester (5-8, 5.46 ERA), has allowed 22 runs, 25 hits, five homers and 10 walks in THREE consecutive losses.

Enough said.

Take the Yankees on the run line as your free play of the day.

2* N.Y. YANKEES -1.5