Ben Burns
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
I successfully played against the Braves the last time that Minor pitched. I won that game primarily due to a strong pitching performance from my pitcher (Johnson of the Marlins) and NOT because of a bad effort from Minor. The fact is that Minor was very sharp, as he has been for some time. He's back on the mound this evening and this time I feel that it should be a good spot to play ON the Braves.
After allowing two runs through seven innings in his last start, Minor now has a superb 2.33 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in his last three starts. In his last home start, he allowed one run through six innings.
While the Phillies aren't that familiar with Minor (he made one start against them in 2010) the Braves know all about Blanton, He's made 12 starts against Altanta, going 2-5 with a 4.68 ERA. Earlier this month, the Braves roughed him up to the tune of six runs (five earned) in 6 1/3 innings. Altanta won that 7/7 matchup by a score of 6-3.
Minor will face a Philadelphia squad which is only 12-20 (-12.6) against southpaws and which is an even worse 12-22 (-14.2) in afternoon games. Consider Atlanta
Matt Fargo
Philadelphia vs. Atlanta
Pick: Atlanta
The Braves won their third straight game and coupled with the Washington loss, they are now four games back in the National League East. They have actually played much better on the road than they have at home but they are 5-2 over their last seven games to get back to over .500 and they average record is keeping the prices very reasonable. Atlanta has allowed only seven runs in its last four games and it is now on a 10-2 run over its last 12 games following a win.
Philadelphia had its four-game winning streak snapped as the come-from-behind string was finally snapped. The Phillies pitching has been just the opposite to that of the Braves as they have allowed six runs in each of their last four games and the starting pitching ERA is a whopping 6.03 over the last five games. The offense has been just as bad over a longer stretch as Philadelphia is hitting .219 over its last 10 games including .205 against lefties. The Phillies are 0-8 in their last eight games as road underdogs.
The Braves send Mike Minor to the hill and he is pitching at his best right now. He has run off three straight quality starts, posting a 2.33 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in the process. The start to the season was not good but this is the time Atlanta needs him to pick things up similar to last season when he posted a 3.83 ERA after the All-Star break. He has a 2.92 ERA over his last four starts at home and the Braves are 8-3 in Minor's last 11 starts after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
Joe Blanton has also been pitching well of late as he has tossed two consecutive quality starts but his inconsistency continues to haunt him. He has 10 quality start on the season but he also allowed five runs or more in seven other starts so it is always questionable which Blanton decides to show up. A deciding factor tonight is the fact that he has struggled against the Braves, going 2-5 with a 4.87 ERA. The Phillies are 1-5 in his last six starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.
Dave Price
LA Angels -169
The Halos have the edge at home, where they have won 40 of their last 55 against the Rays, with Wilson on the hill. The Angels are 9-3 in the southpaw's last 12 starts, and he has a 2.89 ERA on the season. The Rays are just 1-6 in Moore's 7 road starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.36. The Rays are only 1-5 in their last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter while the Angels are 12-2 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter. Expect Wilson to win this battle of lefties. Take the Angels.
Jack Jones
Cincinnati Reds -146
The Cincinnati Reds (59-40) are simply rolling right now. They have won eight straight with no signs of slowing down. Now, they send ace Johnny Cueto to the mound, and he'll have little trouble shutting down the lowly Colorado Rockies (37-61).
Cueto is 12-5 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.170 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA in his last three. He'll be up against Colorado's Christian Friedrich, who is 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.557 WHIP in 15 starts, including 2-4 with an 8.23 ERA and 1.914 WHIP in seven home starts.
The Reds are 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Cincinnati is 7-0 in its last 7 games as a road favorite. The Reds are 14-3 in Cueto's last 17 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is 22-6 in Cueto's last 28 starts as a favorite. The Rockies are 1-8 in Friedrich's last 9 starts. Bet the Reds Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 -108
The Astros have lost 11 in a row with 9 of those losses coming by at least 2 runs. They have also dropped 24 of their last 26 with 18 of those defeats coming by 2 runs or more. The Pirates, meanwhile, have won 8 of their last 10 with with 5 of those wins coming by 2-plus runs. They have also won 19 of their last 26 with 14 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. Plus, former Astro Wandy Rodriguez will be pitching in a park he's very familiar with. He unquestionably has better stuff than Houston scheduled starter Armando Galarraga. We'll take Pittsburgh on the run line.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Yankees -1.5 +108
Boston's Lester has struggled most of the season, and he has especially been roughed up lately. The southpaw is 0-3 with an ERA of 15.33 over his last 3 starts. It is worth noting that those 3 defeats came by 2 runs or more.
Lester has also had his share of issues against the Yankees. Boston has lost his last 4 starts against them. He's been hit hard in the last 2, and the last 3 losses have come by at least 2 runs.
Sabathia is, somewhat quietly, having a terrific season. He's 10-3 with an ERA of 3.30 and enters in top form (1-0 with 1.93 ERA L3 starts). The Yankees are 8-2 in his last 10 home starts with all 8 of those wins coming by 2-plus runs.
The Red Sox are 0-6 in Lester's starts versus good teams with a winning percentage between 54%-62% this season, losing those starts by an average score of 6.0 to 3.7. Take the Yankees on the run line.
GoodFella
LA Dodgers -102
I am once again FADING Zito here and quite simply think the wrong team is favored here, as this LAD club is riding high right now & have all their pieces back, plus the addition of Hanley who makes this lineup SO much "deeper". SF missing a key piece to the middle of their order in Pablo & the bottom half of that SF lineup is very weak. LAD sit just 2 games behind SF in the NL West and I like them to get it done again here behind Billingsley who pitched great his last start vs the Cards (which was his 1st game back from the DL) & I definitely expect him to out pitch Zito here (LAD seeing Zito for 3rd time this season today) and hand the ball over to the LAD best arms in their bully & I have the LAD taking another game from SF here this afternoon.
WUNDERDOG
Cleveland at Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota +115
The Cleveland Indians have opened some eyes, as they started on the fast track last year and duplicated the feat this year. The problem is that they don't have the depth to maintain the winning ways and carry it through a long season. They have demonstrated that early, and they have faded once again. The Indians have fallen to the .500 mark with a 24-32 run in their last 56 where they simply have not been good. Last night they were listless in an 11-0 white-washing by the Twins, who unlike the Tribe have been a .500 team over their last 52 games at 26-26. The Indians' offense is off a game where they scored 2 or less, and have followed by going 3-11 in their last 14. Masterson has just one win in 11 career starts vs. the Twins who have done a good job against him. We have a live dog in this one, so play on Minnesota.
SPORTS WAGERS
SEATTLE +100 over Kansas City
The Royals have been outscored 10-2 in the first two games of this series. Against two very mediocre pitchers in Jason Vargas (3.76 ERA) and Blake Beavan (5.20 ERA), K.C.’s bats went completely silent. They do not like hitting at this park and they’ve also lost three in a row and five of their past six. Now they’re favored with Bruce Chen on the hill?
In four of his past eight starts, Chen has given up six runs. He has allowed four runs or more in less than six innings in four of his past five starts. He’s also been taken yard 10 times in his past six games. This is a tired 35-year-old arm with a 5.54 ERA and a BAA of .287.
Kevin Millwood is certainly no worse than Chen. He has a much better groundball rate than his counterpart in addition to his 80 K’s in 109 innings. Still, we’re not going to try and sell anyone on Millwood. He’s an average pitcher at best. This one is all about fading a cold Royals team, a limited Bruce Chen and not having to spot anything to do so. Wrong side favored.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Detroit -125 over TORONTO: The Tigers have struggled on this trip, going just 1-3 so far, but I feel they will pick up a big win today. Anibal Sanchez will be making his first start for the Tigers after spending his first 6+ seasons in Florida/ Miami. Anibal hasn't had a great year with a 5-7 mark, but he does have a 3.94 ERA on the year. He has pitched really well of late as he has a 2.70 ERA in his last 3 starts, despite a 1-2 record. He was also like some payback on the Jays as they knocked him around earlier in the year. I feel that moving to a direct contender will really push Anibal to amp up his game a bit and he does have the advantage of pitching against what may be a depleted Jays team. Bautista and Arencibia are both out and Escobar and Lind both missed last night and are questionable for this one. This lineup did tag Porcello for 5 runs last night,. but I feel that Sanchez is a better starter and that he will shut them down in this one. The Jays will be sending out a struggling Henderson Alvarez today, who is 1-1 with a 7.14 ERA in his last 3 starts. At home he is just 2-6 with a 4.74 ERA, and the Jays have gone just 2-8 in his 10 home starts. The Tigers offense has been sputtering on this trip, but the should get back to hitting vs a weak pitcher today. Look for Anibal to pitch well for his new team, while his new team looks to give him plenty of run support. Detroit should bounce back today.
Chicago/ Texas Under 10: Google News Play. Philip Humber has really struggled this year with a 6.25 ERA overall and a 5.59 ERA on the road, but he seems to be giving up all the runs as the Sox as a team have allowed just 3.9 rpg in his road starts. His road starts have averaged 9 rpg and he will be taking on a Texas offense that has been sputtering. The Rangers have still scored 4.7 rpg in their last 10 games, and they do score 5.4 rpg at home, but when Matt Harrison is on the mound, at home, they don't seem to score as well. Matt has 8 home starts on the year and he has a 3.02 ERA in those starts, with his mates scoring just 3.5 rpg for him. Matt has really excelled at night with a 1.89 ERA in 11 starts and a 1.19 WHIP. Ranger home games have averaged 9.8 rpg (which is way below the norm), while their night games have averaged 9.4 rpg, but when Matt has been on the mound their home games have averaged just 6.5 rpg, while their night games have averaged just 6.45 rpg. This one should finish around 7.
Miami/ San Diego Under 9: Poor Nathan Eovaldi. He spent the first half of the year with the Dodgers and was granted just 1.9 rpg of support overall and just 1 rpg of support in his home starts. Now he heads to another big park in Miami and may not get much run support here as the Fish have averaged just 3.8 rpg in this park and they have really been scuffling offensively of late as they have averaged just 1.7 rpg in their last 9 overall putting up 3 runs or less in each of those games. Ross Ohlendorf has just 2 road starts on the year and while he has a 7.20 ERA in those starts, i Just don't see him giving up much vs the Fish tonight. Nathan has not pitched that bad this year and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 8 of his 10 starts this year, with an average of just 5.1 rpg being scored in his starts. At night he has a 3.95 ERA and his 7 night starts have averaged just 4.3 rpg. The Padres do score 4.1 rpg on the road, compared to under 3 rpg at home, but they have never seen Eovaldi and that gives him an edge here. I see both offenses struggling in this one.
Cincinnati/ Colorado Under 10: I see that this game just went to 9.5 at most spots but i did play it when it was at 10. Without Bruce or Votto the Reds offense is not as potent and last night it showed as they put up just 3 runs in this hitters park. Overall the Reds do average less than 4 rpg on the road, and they have scored just 3.6 rp/9 innings off of lefties away from home. Christian Friedrich has struggled in this park with an 8.23 ERA, but in his last 3 home starts he has a 4.02 ERA. The Colorado offense has really sputtered of late, hitting just .237 and scoring 3.7 rpg in their last 10 games. That offense will not get much better tonight vs Johnny Cueto, who has been dazzling this year. Johnny has a 2.23 ERA on the year and he has allowed more than 3 ER's just twice in his 20 starts this year. His starts this year have averaged 5.7 rpg with the Under going 15-4-1 in his starts, while on the road his starts have averaged 5.2 rpg, with his road starts going 8-2 to the Under. Here's a stat for you. In his 20 starts this year the most runs scored in a game have been 9 and that happened just twice in his 20 starts. THis game should really struggle to hit 7 runs.
POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (11-2 RUN) (20-10 +7.31 UNITS)
Since 2004 the Rockies are 0-15 as a dog in game 2 of a series vs a NL opponent that has won at least 4 games in a row. Play on Cincinnati -149 over Colorado
Since 2010 the Over is 31-13 if the Astros are dogs of 145+ vs a divisional foe if they have won less than 47% of their games and allowed less than 14 runs in their last game. Play Houston/ Pitt Over 8
Tony George
Seattle -106
Seattle has held KC to 2 runs in 2 games and look to win the third game in this series behind Millwood today. Bruce Chen on the hill for KC who puts runners in scoring position like crazy and has over a 7 ERA in his last 3 starts. KC should get some runs today, just not as many as Seattle.