Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, July 31,2010

Cajun Sports

Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Florida Marlins

The Florida Marlins have dominated the Padres on the West Coast going 6-1 their last seven trips to San Diego. The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco to the bump knowing he is 8-2 on the highway this season with an ERA of 3.92 over that span. Ricky Nolasco is 11-4 in road games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent the last 3 seasons, 12-5 in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last 2 seasons, 13-2 in road games versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game the last 3 seasons, 9-1 in road games against NL West opponents the last 3 seasons and 8-0 in road games versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons. The Padres will send Kevin Correia to the hill with his 4-4 home record and ERA of 4.52 on the season. We will back the visitor here as a small underdog as the Marlins ride Nolasco to another victory on the West Coast on Saturday.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Florida Marlins 4 San Diego Padres 3

Steve Merril

Orioles vs. Royals
Play: Over 8

It has been a rough few starts for Kansas City’s Zack Greinke as he makes his fourth straight start at home against the Orioles on Saturday night. His last time out, he gave up eight runs and eight hits in four innings of work against the Twins. Overall, he's 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts giving up 15 runs and 18 hits in his last 18 innings pitched. The righty took a no-decision against the Orioles back in May as Nick Markakis (4-13), Julio Lugo (5-12), Brian Roberts (5-10), Adam Jones (3-8), and Luke Scott (2-4) all hit Greinke well. Greinke is backed by a Kansas City bullpen that has an ERA close to 5.00 at home. Baltimore’s Brad Bergesen continues to make starts despite being pretty bad this season. The righty is 3-9 with a 7.12 ERA in 16 starts. He's only averaging 5.3 innings per outing meaning a Baltimore bullpen that is already taxed should be involved tonight. The righty has given up 17 runs and 28 hits in his last 16.3 innings pitched. Bergesen lost to the Royals in Baltimore back in May after giving up four runs and 10 hits in 6.7 innings of work. Yuniesky Betancourt (3-9), Billy Butler (3-8), Jose Guillen (1-3), Chris Getz (1-3), and Alex Gordon (1-1) have good numbers against the Orioles starter. The Royals have gone Over the total in six straight games mostly due to bad pitching. The Orioles bullpen has an ERA near 4.40 on the road which has helped them go Over the total in five of their last six games. We expect another high-scoring game between the Orioles and Royals tonight.

Frank Jordan

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

Kevin Slowey has been great for Minnesota winning 9 games so far 5 of which have come at home where he is starting on Saturday against Seattle. Slowey has faced Seattle once this season going 7 strong innings allowing just 1 run and getting the win. This one won't be as easy as he is going up against King Felix who is 7-7 on the year but with an era under 3. Hernandez has faced the Twins once and went 8 strong innings allowing just one run and picking up the victory. Look for another great pitchers duel with Minnesota edging out a win in the end. Play Minnesota

JIM FEIST

CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs OAKLAND ATHLETICS
PICK: CHICAGO WHITE SOX

The Oakland A's seem to be the only team that have been able to cool the red hot White Sox. The A's took two of three from Chicago last week up in the Bay Area. However, change of venue means different circumstances here on Saturday. The White Sox are a MLB best 33-11 since June 11 and almost unbeatable at home. Times had been tough for A's starter Dallas Braden. Braden pitched a perfect game back on May 9th and hadn't won a game since until his last time out on July 25th, a 6-4 win at home over these White Sox. In fact, the win snapped a five game losing streak for Braden. John Danks will start for the Sox, he's 11-7 this year with a 3.23 ERA. Danks has put together four very good starts in his last five chances. If you toss out the game against Minnesota back on 7/15, Danks has allowed just three earned runs in the other 30 2/3 innings. The White Sox are just too hot for me to pass on them here Saturday. The fact that Braden and the A's are here makes the line reasonable to lay. Take the White Sox on Saturday.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -121

The Philadelphia Phillies are red hot having won eight out of nine games and I expect them to get back to their winning ways after dropping last night's game. The Phillies starting pitcher Joe Blanton coughed up two first inning runs in his last start against the Rockies but settled down from there and picked up his first win since beating Cleveland on June 24th. I look for another solid outing by Blanton in this game and I expect the Phillies offense to provide him with plenty of run support as Washington sends Ross Detwiler to the mound for this start. Detwiler was unimpressive in first start of the season as he allowed five runs, on three hits in his 3 2/3 innings of work on Sunday against the Brewers. Detwiler faced 19 batters, walking three and striking out four in the 8-3 loss. Detwiler was called up from Double-A Harrisburg to make the start as Washington put SP J.D. Martin on the 15-day disabled list with a lower back strain and it looked like he went to the mound with Double-A stuff. I expect Philadelphia to hit Detwiler hard who has a career 1-7 record with a 4.71 ERA. Play on the Phillies.

Stephen Nover

I am 46-29-1 on my last 76 free selections. I'm going with Houston for my Saturday complementary selection.

The Brewers couldn't touch southpaw J.A. Happ on Friday night. Now they're facing even a better left-hander in Wandy Rodriguez.

Rodriguez has a strong history of pitching well at home for Houston. He began the season 3-10 with a 6.09 ERA. Since then, however, Rodriguez has turned his year around going 5-1 in his last six starts with a 2.30 ERA.

Rodriguez has been especially sharp lately at Minute Maid Park. He's allowed only four earned runs and 13 hits during his past four home starts spanning 26 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 26-to-7 during these starts.

Milwaukee is going with David Bush, who is 2-4 on the road this season with a 4.41 ERA.

Bush last pitched on the road against Pittsburgh on July 20. The weak-hitting Pirates got to him for 10 runs (five of which were earned) on nine hits and two walks with two home runs in just four innings. Bush still threw 83 pitches despite not reaching the fifth inning.

2♦ HOUSTON

Karl Garrett

Last night the G-Man gave you a free play winner on underdog Washington +155 to make it 6 straight comp play winners.

For Saturday afternoon, take the Braves to keep their season series record perfect against the Reds.

Last night Atlanta won a thriller in 10 innings to make it 3-0 in the season series against Cincinnati.

Today it will be Jair Jurrjens versus Bronson Arroyo, and Arroyo has been struggling of late, allowing 10 runs to score in his last 14 innings of work for an 0-2 mark.

Jurrjens has yet to win on the road at 0-3 with an ERA near 8, but today is the day he settles down and gets the job done away from Turner Field in a game the Braves must have.

G-Man feeling it with Atlanta this afternoon boys.

2♦ ATLANTA

Derek Mancini

Solid Free Play winner Friday, as I warned my customers not to get suckered into taking Roy Oswalt in his debut. Much like Cliff Lee in his Rangers debut, Oswalt was awful, and we reaped the benefits with an easy dog winner (+155) on the Nationals 8-1 over the Phillies!

Onto tonight's Free Play, as I'm taking the Marlins to continue their red-hot play at Petco Park, where they're 10-3 over their L13 meetings, including 5 straight wins! Bettors seem to be liking the Padres to bounce back behind Kevin Correia (7-6, 5.09 ERA) tonight, but there's no question which starter is pitching better.

Ricky Nolasco (11-7, 4.35 ERA) has really picked it up over the last month and a half, posting 6 quality efforts in his last 8 starts since june 17th. He's been especially sharp his last 2 starts, surrendering 3 runs over his L14 1/3 innings with 15 strikeouts. The veteran righty has also got some decent career stats vs the Padres, going 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 5 outings... But his L2 at Petco were excellent, allowing a single run over 14 1/3 innings with 17 strikeouts!

While Correia has pitched well over his L2 starts, his career numbers against the Fish leave A LOT to be desired, going 2-2 with an 8.39 ERA in 5 starts. He got rocked in 2 of his L4 home starts, and with the way the Marlins are hitting homeruns of late, I'd be very concerned if I were backing Correia in this match up. There's a reason the price on this game is where its at, and that's because the Fish are going to give the Padres everything they can handle - and more. Florida (Nolasco) over San Diego (Correia) Saturday.

2♦ FLORIDA

JOEL TYSON

Made the wrong total call last night in the Yankees-Rays game, but I will make the right call in that very game tonight, as I see Javier Vazquez and Matt Garza getting the job done in a classic pitcher's duel tonight.

Play the under for the second night in a row, as Vazquez is fresh off a 7 inning, 2 run road win at Cleveland, and has now worked his last 14 innings on the road with just 2 runs allowed.

Matt Garza comes into this assignment fresh off his no-hitter against Detroit, and has worked his last 15 home innings without allowing an earned run.

New York has been under in 4 of their last 5, while Tampa Bay has held low in 5 of their last 6.

Runs will be hard to come by tonight at the Trop, so play the Yankees-Rays to stay under the total once again.

4♦ UNDER

Hollywood Sports

Yankees at Rays
Prediction: Over

Matt Garza is making his first start since pitching a no-hitter in his last outing -- but starting pitchers are notorious to experience a letdown after great performances like that. In fact, Tampa Bay has played five straight Overs when Garza takes the mound after a Quality Start in his previous performance. For the season, Garza is 11-5 but his 4.06 ERA is certainly not dominant. The Yankees' offense is red-hot as they are hitting .291 over their last ten games. The Bronx Bombers send Javier Vazquez to the hill with his 9-7 mark and a meager 4.54 ERA. Vazquez does not have a history of success against the Rays given his 4.94 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 82 innings of work. The Over is 12-3-1 in the Yanks last 16 games when they play a team with a winning record. And in the last ten meetings between these two AL East rivals, the game has gone Over the Total nine times.

On a deeper level, both of these pitchers share a troubling sabermetric statistic that strongly suggests that they both will experience hard times in the future. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Vazquez and Garza have high ISO's of .203 and .174 respectively which indicates they both have been giving up a disproportionate amount of extra-base hits. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future. Take the Over here while listing both pitchers.

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Calgary Stampeders
Prediction: Calgary Stampeders

Calgary (3-1) is feeling very good about themselves after destroying the previously unbeaten Saskatchewan Roughriders by a 40-20 score last week. The 2008 Grey Cup Champions remain a force to be reckoned with as they are outscoring their opponents by 8.0 PPG while their defense is limiting their opposition to just 21.2 PPG. At home, the Stampeders have been able to really get their offense going under QB Henry Burris as they are scoring 35 PPG with a whopping 521 total YPG. Now they face a Winnipeg (2-2) club that appears primed for a letdown after they humiliated Edmonton by a 47-21 score last week. The Bluebombers have had the luxury of playing their three of their first four games at home this season. But in their last five games on the road, they have failed to cover the spread four times. Finally, Winnipeg's two wins this season have been against Edmonton and Hamilton who have only one win between the both of them. The Bluebombers should get exposed against a veteran club playing at home. Lay the points with Calgary in this one.

Marc Lawrence

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: New York Yankees

The Yankees and Rays meet in Game Two of this three game weekend series in Tampa where Javier Vazquez meets Matt Garza in a matchup of right handers at Tropicana Field. Garza, who enters off a no-hitter in his last start, is 1-7 in his career team starts against the Pinstripes, including 0-6 the last six. With Vazquez 8-1 in his last nine starts in July, including 5-1 away, look for Garza to come back to earth here tonight.

BIG AL

Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Minnesota Twins

The Twins are on quite a roll right now. The team that is battling with the White Sox for first place in the AL Central has now won six games in a row, and 11 out of their last 14. Perhaps the most impressive thing about this streak is that they have done it all without the services of arguably their best offensive player, as first baseman Justin Morneau has been out since before the All Star break with a concussion and still has no target date for a return. The Twins also made sure they didn't sit on their hands at the trade deadline as they made a deal for closer Matt Capps from the Nationals, which is huge because it allows big Jon Rauch to return to his natural job as a setup man. Rauch and Capps could form one of the most deadly 8th-9th inning combinations in baseball. Good thing the Twins acted, because late Friday the White Sox acquired starter Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks, shoring up their rotation for the latter part of the season. All you need to know about Felix Hernandez's season in Seattle is found in his ERA and record. How many starters out there can put up an ERA of 2.86 while only going 7-7 through their first 22 starts? The lack of run support has got to be driving King Felix through the roof, and with the trade of Cliff Lee (and Erik Bedard probably out for the season) Hernandez will undoubtedly go the rest of the way as the team's undisputed ace. King Felix is no doubt lamenting the fact that it was Lee, and not himself, that got traded to a contender. Take the Twins.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on New York Mets -134

The D-backs have had New York's number, but we're talking about a team that is just 14-36 on the road this season. We're also talking about a team that has struggled against southpaw starters. The D-backs are just 9-25 in their last 34 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and they have never seen Takahashi. I also like the fact that the Diamondbacks are only 4-12 in their last 16 games following a win. The Mets are 35-16 in their last 51 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Look for them to finally take care of Arizona tonight.

Roz Juarbe

A's at White Sox

The Oakland A's seem to be the only team that have been able to cool the red hot White Sox. The A's took two of three from Chicago last week up in the Bay Area. However, change of venue means different circumstances here on Saturday. The White Sox are a MLB best 33-11 since June 11 and almost unbeatable at home. Times had been tough for A's starter Dallas Braden. Braden pitched a perfect game back on May 9th and hadn't won a game since until his last time out on July 25th, a 6-4 win at home over these White Sox. In fact, the win snapped a five game losing streak for Braden. John Danks will start for the Sox, he's 11-7 this year with a 3.23 ERA. Danks has put together four very good starts in his last five chances. If you toss out the game against Minnesota back on 7/15, Danks has allowed just three earned runs in the other 30 2/3 innings. The White Sox are just too hot for me to pass on them here Saturday. The fact that Braden and the A's are here makes the line reasonable to lay. Take the White Sox on Saturday.