Bobby Maxwell
I'm here to hand you a FREE winner tonight with the Rays as they host the Yankees in this huge N.L. East matchup.
The Rays rallied to win Friday’s opener in this big A.L. East series and drew just a little closer to the Yankees in the standings. Tonight, they’ll make it two in a row behind right-hander Matt Garza (11-5, 4.06 ERA) who tossed a no-hitter in his last outing against the Tigers.
Garza struck out six and walked one in the 5-0 victory over the Tigers and in his last two home starts, he’s allowed just one hit and no runs in 15 innings, shutting out the Tigers and Yankees. Garza is 6-2 at home this season with a 3.61 ERA and he pitched very well in four starts against the Yankees last season, allowing a combined six earned runs in 26 innings of work. Javier Vazquez (9-7, 4.54 ERA) takes the ball for the Yankees against these Rays that tore into him back on April 9 in Tampa, getting eight runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings of a 9-3 victory. In Vazquez’s last two starts in Tampa, he’s allowed 14 runs in just 10 innings. Teams he’s started for have dropped seven of his last nine starts against the Rays.
New York has dropped four of its last five Saturday games and the Yankees are just 3-7 the last 10 times Vazquez has started against a winning team. Tampa has won seven straight overall, 19 of their last 26 and 10 of their last 11 at home. The Rays are 18-6 when Garza is a home favorite, 19-7 at home overall and they’ve won each of his last six starts.
Tampa knows that with a win today, the Rays have pulled themselves into a first-place tie with the Yankees. That is plenty of motivation for the Rays as they will get another quality start from Garza and win this one relatively easy.
4♦ TAMPA BAY
BRET ATKINS
Atlanta’s Jair Jurrjens is starting to look like the pitcher who won a combined 27 games the last two seasons.
He has very good stuff and can absolutely dominate teams when he’s healthy. I know he had some hamstring issues last month, but he’s been very solid lately, going 2-0 in his last three outings with a 2.61 ERA.Bronson Arroyo is on the hill for the Reds. He was 1-2 in his last three starts with a 5.23 ERA. Last time out at home, Arroyo allowed the Nationals to get him for seven runs in 5.2 innings of an 8-5 loss.
Cincinnati is on skids of 2-6 against winning teams and 2-12 in Arroyo’s last 14 starts. The Braves come in on positive runs of 20-6 on Saturday, 7-2 against winning teams and 22-8 against the N.L. Central.
I’m backing the better squad today. Play the Braves.
3♦ ATLANTA
Lenny Del Genio
Indians at Blue Jays
Prediction: Under
The Indians are struggling at the plate scoring less than three runs per game in their last eight games. Today, it wont get any better as they face Torontos very tough lefty Brett Cecil. Hes faced this weak hitting Cleveland team three times and the number show 15 innings pitched and only two earned runs allowed. This season in Cleveland he pitched a gem going eight innings and allowing only one hit. The Indians send Westbrook to the hill and he pitched very well in his last outing going eight strong innings against the hard hitting Yankees. He allowed only four hits in the 3-2 loss as the Indians couldnt provide enough support. The last time Westbrook faced these Jays he went six innings and allowed only one earned run. It all adds up to a low scoring game today in Toronto. Play on Under.
Tom Freese
Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Florida Marlins
Florida starter Ricky Nolasco has won 6 of his last 7 starts. The Marlins are 10-4 their last 14 games and they are 6-2 their last 8 games vs. righty starters. The Fish are 9-2 when the total is 7.0 to 8.5 and they are 7-3 vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego starter Kevin Correia has allowed 11 runs in his last 17 innings of work. The Padres are 2-5 their last 7 games vs. Al East teams. San Diego is 2-5 with Correia his last 7 home starts vs. a winning team. The Padres are 0-5 their last 5 home games vs. the Marlins.
Matt Rivers
Brad Bergesen can be a nightmare unlike Zach Greinke who could be great but the Kansas City Royals are laying $2 plus? Seriously? That alone makes this play a total no-brainer. I understand that the Orioles aren't good and they are at a huge disadvantage with the most important position on the field but once again, the Kansas City Royals are laying $2 plus? Come on.
Greinke will be better than that dreadful last start but the righthander has not been the same guy as last season and is fairly hittable right now. That doesn't mean that the poor Orioles, who just traded away Miggy, will be able to do all that much damage but there is still an upside here with Buck Showalter's soon to be club. Jones, Wieters, Roberts and Markakis are quality big league hitters and scoring some runs is not out of the realm at all.
I don't hate the Royals at all as I like Billy Butler and a few others but Dejesus is done for the season and Podsednik was just traded away so I think that this team is on the way down and headed for a bit of a fall.
KC is still not a bad team to back when getting a price like this but when laying it is an entirely different matter. Bergesen may not be pitching well at all but the righty is still a young guy with some stuff. The upside has not shone through in the slightest and may not today as he could get fully outclassed by the far superior pitcher but the price is just too right to not make a play on this dog.
Pick: Baltimore
Sam Martin
Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals
Play Kansas City -1.5
We’ll back the Royals to win this game in a blowout. And we’ve been saying all along that Zach Greinke would “lose it” mentally after pitching his heart out and watching his team waste his good starts with either poor offense or bullpen meltdowns, but this is an excellent spot for Greinke to pick up a rare win here. KC should have no problem scoring against Bergesen, who has a season ERA of 7.89 in his seven road starts.
VEGAS EXPERTS
New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays
Play On: N.Y. Yankees w/Vazquez vs Garza Note: The Yankees and Rays meet in Game Two of this three game weekend series in Tampa where Javier Vazquez meets Matt Garza in a matchup of right handers at Tropicana Field. Garza, who enters off a no-hitter in his last start, is 1-7 in his career team starts against the Pinstripes, including 0-6 the last six. With Vazquez 8-1 in his last nine starts in July, including 5-1 away, look for Garza to come back to earth here tonight.
Play on: New York Yankees
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
Detroit Tigers @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox
I don't normally recommend playing favorites of this size, however for a number of different reasons I'm expecting the Red Sox to blowout the Tigers in this situation:
Max Scherzer heads to the hill for the home side; Scherzer is coming off a loss; he's 7-8 on the year with a 4.45 ERA.
He's 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in his career against the Red Sox.
And not only is Detroit just 1-4 its last five overall, its also just 1-10 its last 11 on the road.
In the other dugout: Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the nod for the home side; Matsuzaka is coming off a no decision; keep in mind though that he's pitched at least six innings in three straight starts and has a 1.93 ERA over that time.
He's 7-3 on the year with a 4.09 ERA.
Keep in mind as well that Boston is 16-8 its last 24 at home and 11-5 its last 16 vs. Detroit.
Bottom line: Boston will be particularly hungry here after yesterday's 6-5 loss and trailing the Rays by 6 1/2 for the Wild Card spot.
Matsuzaka is 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA in five career starts vs. the Tigers.
When taking all of the above into account, you may want to consider a second look at BOSTON today.
BRAD DIAMOND SPORTS
Cincinnati over Atlanta
This matchup represents a major motivational test, as the Reds who have a ½ game lead in the Central face the Braves who show with a 2 ½ game lead in the East. RHP Arroyo fires up for the Reds, while Jurjens hits the bump for the Braves. A major key today has the Reds winning 9 of 12 in this series at home. Plus with Arroyo on the hill in game #2 of a series, Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0. Atlanta is 1-4 with Jurjens in road starts and 3-12 versus the Central.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -105
The Twins are rolling, having won 6 straight, and I don't see a Seattle team that is just 15-37 on the road standing in their way tonight. I know Hernandez is going for Seattle, but the M's are just 2-7 in his last 9 road starts. The Twins have won 22 of Slowey's last 30 home starts, giving me more than enough confidence to take them at a great price tonight.
John Ryan
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Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
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5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Washington set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game.They are coming off a poor game and it is quite apparent that Oswalt was just feeling his way through the game and perhaps had some fatigue issues related to the the sudden travel to Washington and all of the media interviews he had to endure. That one start will not dictate whether that trade was a success or not and we are certain that once Oswalt gets accustomed to his teammates and especially his catcher Ruiz everything will fall into place. Blanton has been steadily improving, but his ERA still remains high. Washington has not done well against these types of starters as they are just 4-16 (-12.4 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Phils are a solid 25-9 (+14.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Nats are also 6-22 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less this season; 0-12 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. Phils roll.
Michael Alexander
Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
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The Florida Marlins opened up the weekend series versus the Padres with a win last night and tonight will look for a second in a row when they send right hander, Ricky Nolasco to the hill. Nolasco has pitched well this season and is 2-1 his L3 starts with a 3.20 ERA. However, the Marlins are only 2-3 in his L5 starts verus the Padres.
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It won't be easy for the Marlins to grab the win tonight as the Padres have made big money versus right handed starters at home this season. Their starting picther, Kevin Correia has also looked good posting a 3.75 ERA in his last two starts and beat the Marlins ealier in the year in Florida.
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Supporting Trends: CORREIA is 17-7 (+14.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons. FLORIDA is 6-17 (-12.5 Units) against the money line vs. NL teams allowing 3.8 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. CORREIA is 10-2 (+8.8 Units) against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons
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You have a superior team, San Diego, listed as a short home favorite versus a Florida team that is only only 2-5 vs. San Diego. I'm taking the Padres in this one.
Matt Fargo
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
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This is a great value spot for the Pirates. Pittsburgh is having yet another horrible season as it is a miserable 30 games under .500 including 27 games under .500 on the road. The Pirates need to be played in spots and this is one of those spots as they are catching a great number. They were handcuffed by Chris Carpenter last night in a tough one-run loss but the offense gets it going again tonight. The Cardinals are doing nothing overly spectacular as they are 3-5 over their last eight games but they are playing excellent at home and that is driving this number for the most part. On the contrarian side, the pitching matchup favors neither team and that basically turns this game into a toss up and at the crazy odds, St. Louis cannot be played. Jeff Suppan has been safe to play against this season as his teams are 3-6 in his nine starts including the Cardinals going 2-5 in his seven starts since coming over from Milwaukee. He has a 6.18 ERA overall and is 0-6 so nothing has been going right. He did post a quality outing in his last home start but gave it right back next time out against the Cubs and I see more of that taking place here. Suppan had a 5.40 ERA against the Pirates in three starts last season. The Pirates Daniel McCutchen has been recalled from Class AAA Indianapolis to start Saturday and they are hoping for better results than his first time up. He has a horrendous 8.58 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance but some time down in the Minors has done some good. He went 2-6 with a 3.62 ERA in his last nine Triple-A starts so the production is definitely there. Pittsburgh also falls into a solid underdog situation. Play against National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 5.20 and 5.70 on the season after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 33-19 (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons and it is even stronger than that based on the underdog aspect. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates
JR O'Donnell
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PIT (+180) vs STL
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Jr O are you kidding me? We are on the Pittsburgh Pirates +180. This is just a nasty ugly winner behind the Pirates hurler McCutchen. He needs to just keep the Pirates close vs the over-rated, and in our opinion, an awful St Louis Cards Suppan. Suppan is 0-6 overall and just can't win with a ballooning 6.18 ERA. Nobody but JR O will be behind the boys from Western PA @ St Louis tonight. We are fading the betting public & J Suppan as we feel that the Pitt Pirates steal one tonight! Short and Sweet tonight go the Buckos.
Dan Bebe
WAS (+116) vs PHI
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This is one of those plays where the line is so outrageously screwy that I simply have to make a Small Free Play out of it.
Those that have the stones, join me. Those that don't, well, I may not blame you, on this one.
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Ross Detwiler has been nothing short of awful, but all the line movement points to Detwiler putting together a quality start. The side has come down off the opening number for the road favorite, which immediately makes you think that Blanton gets hit, but at the same time, the vig on the total has moved from Over-120 to Under-115. Someone likes the Under, big time, and that someone wouldn't make this play without some confirmation from Detwiler's side session.
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Blanton has been awful against the Nationals in his career, and Washington is actually playing solid ball at home, right now. They've won 2 straight, and 3 of 4 on the current homestand. And the best part - yesterday's win over Oswalt snapped the Phillies 8-game winning streak. I love fading teams off a long win streak, as it generally takes a day or two for the guys to get readjusted, and that's all set to happen today.
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The Phillies had been on an offensive tear, but scored just 1 run in yesterday's loss, which also makes me think they're due for a game or two of 1-3 runs, instead of the 7's and 9's they had been putting up at home.
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Line movement tells the story on this game, but because putting money on Detwiler is such a scary proposition, let's keep this one relatively small.