SPORTS WAGERS
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Detroit +1.74 over BOSTON
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It didn’t seem possible that the banged up Tigers could go into Boston yesterday and beat Jon Lester with Armando Galarraga going but they did and today they get a much more favorable matchup. Max Scherzer is developing into a true ace. This guy has wicked stuff and he just keeps getting better. He was sent down to the minors back in early May to work on his delivery and in his first start back he fanned a cool 14 and has barely slowed down since. In that no-hitter game against Matt Garza last week, Scherzer, too, had a no-no going into the sixth. In 32 July innings, Scherzer has allowed 20 hits for a BAA of .175 to go along with an ERA of 2.48. This guy can pitch, period. Daisuke Matsuzaka is coming off back-to-back strong games but they came in Seattle and Oakland. Fact is, Dice K is not to be trusted laying big juice. He’s a serious roll of the dice because he is capable of walking way too many people. Every time you think Dice has turned the corner he throws a complete disaster. We're three years into this experiment and his skills keep getting worse. Does this look like an ace to you? Big overlay. Play: Detroit +1.74 (Risking 2 units).
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Florida +1.07 over SAN DIEGO
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This one is all about wagering on Ricky Nolasco against Kevin Correia. Nolasco has been one of the best pitchers in the game in July and that is right in line with his incredibly terrific second half a year ago. Nolasco’s ERA in 2009 and the first half of 2010 weren’t great, but that was due to various factors and as a result we get an undervalued pitcher here. Fact is, he’s done much better in his five second-half starts. Combine that with impeccable control and it’s clear why his xERA is so low. In 33 July innings, Nolasco has fanned 40 batters while walking just eight. He has a .216 BAA over that span and current Padre hitters have had very little success against him. The Marlins are really playing good ball and took the opener last night in a matchup that was far less favorable than this one. Kevin Correia is usually good for giving up four or five a game. Pitching at least half his games at Petco, Correia has a BAA of .272 and an ERA of 4.52. Those are Great American Ballpark numbers and frankly, there’s nothing to like about Correia as a favorite over Nolasco. Play: Florida +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
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HOUSTON –1½ +1.86 over Milwaukee
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You could definitely lay the –1.11 and feel very confident but we’ll go for the gold and lay the runs. You see, everything about Wandy Rodriguez is screaming to “buy” now. He’s been trending in the right direction for weeks and has really hit his stride with five outstanding starts in his last six. Among those were a seven-inning, one-hit gem against the Reds, a six-inning, zero earned runs against San Fran and a seven-inning, seven-hit, one run gem against these same Brewers in Milwaukee. Now the scene switches to Houston, where Rodriguez has always been better. Furthermore, Milwaukee has lost 15 of Dave Bush’s last 22 starts and it’s also worth mentioning that Houston is on a three-game winning streak while the Crew have dropped three straight. Dave Bush is hit and miss. He will never dominate in the fashion that Rodriguez is capable of but will often keep his team in the game. However, that’s a roll of the dice every time and even in his win last week in against the Nats, he still gave up three jacks. It might appear that the Astros are cleaning house when in fact they’re not. This is a team with a lot of young talent, that can’t wait to get back to the park, as they’re all starting to thrive. Play: Houston –1½ +1.86 (Risking 2 units).
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Pittsburgh +1.82 over ST. LOUIS
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Jeff Suppan a –1.94 favorite is about as ridiculous as it gets. Here’s a guy that has nothing left. He’s batting practice out there. Over his last three starts covering 16 innings, Suppan has struck out two batters and they were both pitchers. In those 16 July innings, he’s also allowed four bombs, walked seven and allowed 22 hits. In 67 IP this season he’s allowed 99 hits for a BAA of .359 to go along with an alarming 1.88 WHIP. Jeff Suppan is the worst starter in the majors and now he’s a 2-1 favorite? Are you kidding? Also, Tony LaRussa is the most overrated manager in baseball history and it’s not close. He actually believes in his own screwed up brain that batting the pitcher eighth is working. It’s not only that though. He makes so many bad moves it’s incredible but they go virtually unnoticed by most because he’s been around so long and has had success. The only reason he’s had success is because he has surrounded himself with great assistants and bench coaches and they do everything form him but it’s perceived that LaRussa is doing it. Personally, I have no confidence when I wager on the Cards because LaRussa makes two stupid moves (or more) every game and costs his team more wins than any manager in the business. The Pirates do not have a strong starter on its whole staff so there is no point getting into Daniel McCutchen’s numbers. He could give up five or more without breaking a sweat. Thing is, McCutchen is not the one laying close to 2-1 and the Pirates are playing decent ball these days. They have a great chance to score a bunch and when a stiff like Suppan is favored by this much, the pooch is the play with no questions asked because Suppan’s chances of losing are far greater than his chances of winning. Play: Pittsburgh +1.84 (Risking 2 units).
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CALGARY –6½ over Winnipeg
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The absolute only reason we’re not betting the Stamps is because of a possible letdown after last week’s near flawless performance against the Riders. Calgary dominated from start to finish and they looked like the best team in the league. Now they’ll take a big step down in class against a team that comes in extremely banged up. The Bombers will play this one without its starting QB, and without league-leading punter Mike Renaud. One of the starting left tackles, Glenn January, is on the nine-game injured list. So is the long snapper, Chris Cvetkovic and the special teams captain, Shawn Gallant. The starting weak-side linebacker, Marcellus Bowman, has to take a
seat this week because of a hand injury. Odell Willis, the sack machine at defensive end, who no doubt would've been more than excited to play his former team, is back in the U.S. dealing with an immigration problem. The Stamps could very well believe that all they have to do is show up in body only and even the local Winnipeg papers are suggesting the Bombers mail in the two points. So, if the Stamps show up and play like they did last week they will destroy this intruder. Are we willing to bet on it? No, because we’ve seen Calgary play uninspired and lazy football in more than a few quarters already this year. Play: Calgary –6½ (No bets).
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Hamilton +7½ over SASKATCHEWAN
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One really has to believe that the Riders will be so much sharper this week after a rather humbling loss last week in Calgary. Still, the Riders have looked very average in the past two weeks and may not be as good as advertised. The TiCats are getting very little credit because of a rough start but this team is only going to get better. They’ve had a lot of things go against them and even in that loss last week in Montreal, they were right there for the first half before things started to fall apart. TiCat QB Kevin Glenn has completed better than 65 percent of his attempts for close to 1,100 yards and has five touchdowns and just a one pick, the fewest miscues of any starter in the league right now. Glenn is dangerous, as is this whole offense and if the running game can pick it up just a bit, the TiCats are a big threat. The TiCats are perceived as dregs while the Riders are perceived as a powerhouse. Both are untrue and while that assessment is not way off, it’s still off, thus creating an overlay in this contest. Play: Hamilton +7½ (No bets).
Jack Jones
Yankees/Rays OVER 8.5
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Last night's game between the Yankees and Rays was the only low-scoring contest this season in this rivalry. The OVER is 8-1 in 9 meetings between New York and Tampa Bay this year. They have combined to score 9 or more runs in 8 of the 9 meetings and they are averaging 12 RPG per contest. Neither Javier Vasquez nor Matt Garza has been spectacular this season. Vasquez has posted a 4.54 ERA this year while Garza sports a 4.06 ERA.
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The Rays are 13-4 to the OVER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Tampa Bay is 11-3 to the OVER vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season this season. The OVER is 8-1 in Yankees last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 12-3-1 in Vazquez's last 16 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The OVER is 8-1 in Rays last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The OVER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings overall. Take the OVER in this game Saturday.
Steve Janus
Florida Marlins vs. San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres
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I like the Padres to even the series against the Marlins with a win on Saturday. The Padres have Kevin Correia taking the mound, and the Padres are 7-4 on the season when he starts at home. Correia is coming off back to back wins over the Diamondbacks and Pirates,and I believe he rides that momentum to shut down a pretty good Marlins lineup. Bet the Padres!
Top Trends For Padres
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*SAN DIEGO is 22-9 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less this season.
*SAN DIEGO is 28-13 against the money line after a loss this season.
*CORREIA is 21-7 against the money line when the money line is -100 to -150
*FLORIDA is 6-17 against the money line after 2 or more consecutive wins this season.
Tony Stoffo
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Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies
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With the Cubbies having now lost 3 straight including a whopping 17-2 lost last night. I can see them coming right back with another lopsided loss here tonight especially with Tom Gorzelanny getting the start here. Gorzelanny has not faired well against the Rockies resulting in a 10.80 ERA and 2.40 WHIP. Plus add in the fact that the Cubs bullpen in their last 3 games has thrown 16 innings producing a 12.94 ERA and 2.44 WHIP, and you can see how the Rockies can come with another big number on the scoreboard here tonight. Cubs are 0-4 in their last 4 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Rockies are 10-3 in Hammels last 13 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Rockies are 31-9 as a home favorite of -150 to -175 -- Please checkout my welcome back August Special all access package.
O.C. Dooley
Dodgers -105 at Giants
It is interesting to see the Dodgers as a slight road favorite this afternoon even though the team is just 5-10 since the All Star break. In the past eight games the Dodgers offense (.174 combined batting average) has been nearly non-existent. But the fact of the matter is that Los Angeles in a competitive 6-5 loss actually put up the most runs on the scoreboard in nearly a two-week span. In addition the Dodgers are an excellent 25-10 the past two years when off a very close “one run” loss versus an opponent. For the entire season to date Los Angeles has gone 25-11 against “divisional” competition which just happens to be one of the best marks in all of baseball. To give you an idea how badly Joe Torre and crew want to win today against a hated rival, Chad Billingsley is pitching on just 3 days of rest. The streaky Billingsley is seeking to WIN a 3rd consecutive decision. For those who get to watch this FOX-TV regional telecast out west, keep an eye on Matt Kemp and Rafael Furcal who in their careers have had success against today’s San Francisco starter Barry Zito
Sac Lawson
HOU (-114) vs MIL
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Plain and Simple... Wandy is finally starting to hit his stride.. Yes it took him half of a season to do so, but he did it! At home, it's simply a huge money making opportunity to grab Wandy. It was last year, and at this point in the season this year, it is as well. Wandy puts in work in Houston.
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On the other side, Dave Bush certainly isn't the kinda guy that is going to scare me off a play. Yes, the Astros are without Berkman now, but I'm sticking with my theory that guys really focus at the plate and make their AB's count when they are thrown into the lineup unexpectedly. I think we'll see a focused Astros club over the next week knowing that they lost one of the main stays in that clubhouse. Take the stros.