LEE KOSTROSKI
Athletics @ Indians
PICK: Over 8.5
The Indians do not appear to be a strong hitting team against left-handed pitching but the ‘over’ has hit in seven of the last nine home games that Cleveland has faced a left-handed starter. In the first series between these teams there were 28 runs scored with the ‘over’ hitting twice and those games came in Oakland where runs are much tougher to come by. Even with the Indians hitting just .248 as a team, 9.1 runs per game are being scored at Progressive Field and it ranks as an above average hitting park according to ballpark OPS.
Jake Westbrook is coming off an excellent start but he faced a cold Blue Jays offense and few outings have been that successful in Westbrook’s comeback season after missing all of 2009 and most of 2008 due to injury. Westbrook’s home ERA is 4.60 with a 1.49 WHIP and the A’s hit him hard earlier this season. Oakland got eight hits and four runs off Westbrook in an eventual 10-0 win as Westbrook lasted just five innings. In four of his last six home starts Westbrook has allowed at least four runs and the ‘over’ is 7-4 in his last eleven starts overall.
Dallas Braden was scratched from his last start with elbow stiffness but he is expected to give it a go Saturday. Braden has not picked up a win since his perfect game in early May and the results have been ugly of late. Over his last five starts Braden has allowed 43 hits in only 30 innings of work, giving foes a .323 batting average in that span. On the road Braden’s ERA is 5.03 this season and he has oddly had far worse results in night games. Braden has not struck out more than five batters in a game in any of his last eight outings and he will face a Cleveland lineup that is starting to put together some positive momentum.
The Indians swept a four-game home set with Toronto to start the week and after fully committing to several young players in the lineup the promise is finally starting to give some real results. The A’s have also been a hot hitting team with a .280 team average in the last ten games and scoring nearly five runs per game. The biggest reason to expect runs in this game will be in the late innings however as both bullpens have really struggled. The Indians have the highest bullpen ERA in the AL at 4.94 and the A’s are surprisingly not far behind with a 4.24 ERA. Oakland’s pen has really struggled on the road with a 5.43 ERA and both teams should get opportunities to cross the plate tonight.
MARC LAWRENCE
Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Florida Marlins
The Marlins and Braves battle in Game Two of this three-game weekend series in Atlanta Saturday afternoon when Anibal Sanchez meets Tommy Hanson at Turner Field in Atlanta. Sanchez takes the mound with wins in three of his last four road starts while standing 4-2 in his career road team starts during July. On the flip side, Hanson is 0-2 with a sky-high 17.55 ERA in his last two stars. He's also 1-4 in his career team starts in July. With that we'll back the Fish in this attractive underdog spot today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Florida.
Jim Feist
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs
Take: Cincinnati Reds
The Reds continue to impress, taking two of three from the Phillies, including beating ace Roy Halladay three nights ago. That completed an impressive stretch winning 7 of 9 games, 4-0 their last four games as an underdog. Cincinnati goes with Johnny Cueto, who is 8-2 on the year with few walks and fewer hits than innings pitched. The struggling Cubs haven't had anything going right this season, a big disappointment. The Reds have the top offense in the NL, the Cubs are third worst. Play the Reds.
SPORTS WAGERS
Germany +1.34 to advance over Argentina
The youthful German squad has been one of the most electrifying teams of the tournament. They opened the tournament with a shellacking of the Aussies 4-0, with everyone pointing to them as the most impressive team after one round of the group stage. They lost their next match 1-0 to Serbia but the result would have been completely different if not for a card-happy referee who sent off Miroslav Klose, along with the hopes of a German sweep of Group D. Germany rebounded with a group clinching 1-0 victory over Ghana. The German offense was nothing short of amazing when Miroslav Klose returned for their 4-1 victory over England. Argentina swept through their group with victories over Nigeria, South Korea and Greece. Their 3-1 victory over Mexico, in the Round of 16, looks far more impressive on paper than it actually was. Mexico was the far better team in the early stages and then had their hearts broken when Carlos Tevez scored an Argentinean goal that was at least five-feet offside. The Mexicans were unable to keep their composure in the following minutes and it was no surprise that Argentina struck again just seven minutes later. Maybe Argentina would have still advanced, but Mexico was jobbed of having a punchers chance after one of the worst non-calls you will ever see. This match certainly has the potential to be exciting, as Argentina and Germany are the two highest scoring teams in the World Cup with 10 and nine goals respectively. Argentina may have a historical edge with an all-time record of 8-5-5 but Germany sports a 2-1-2 record against them in World Cup play. The Germans will have to be smart in their defending, as seven of their players carry yellow cards into the match. Germany is the second youngest team in the World Cup but they are tournament tough. With players like Ozil and Mueller already looking great at such young ages, this team will only get better with each match they play. The Germans enter this quarterfinal match playing at an incredible pace with precise passing and striking. This is a very evenly matched affair but Germany has played some of the best football of the tournament and have prepped better against far tougher competition. If history repeats itself and they play to a draw after 120 minutes, like they did at Germany 2006, you can expect the same result with a German victory via penalty kicks. Germany's liability of youth is actually its biggest asset in this match. Rest assured they will not be intimidated by or get caught watching the dazzling play of Lionel Messi and his teammates. Taking plus money on a German side that claimed victory in one of the toughest groups, playing some of the best football of the tournament, only makes sense. Too much value to pass on Deutschland here. Play: Germany +1.34 to advance. (Risking 2 units).
Spain –1 –1.02 over Paraguay
Spain has never advanced past the quarterfinals in four tries, while Paraguay will be playing on that stage for the first time in World Cup history. Spain currently stands second in the FIFA rankings, 29 places ahead of Paraguay. The Spaniards enter this match coming off a very impressive effort against a defensively strong Portugal squad. The Spanish passing game was a thing of beauty, which allowed them to dominate possession 62-38%. The Spaniards finally resembled the team they were when they were crowned EURO CUP champions in 2008. David Villa has been on fire as of late, scoring three goals in his last four matches. Fernando Torres looked much better in his last effort with a number of scoring chances early in the contest. Spain slowly picked up momentum during the group stages, starting off with a loss against the Swiss followed by victories against both Honduras and Chile. Paraguay plays quite the opposite style of Spain with a defend first mentality and a lack of offensive creativity. They claimed victory in Group F with an impressive 2-0 victory over Slovakia and draws against both Italy and New Zealand. They had a soft Round of 16 match-up against Japan and barely got by them, needing penalty kicks to successfully punch their ticket to the quarterfinals. Paraguay has scored just three goals in its four matches of this World Cup. Holding off the Spaniards will be a very difficult task and the game will surely open up if Spain can strike for a goal early in the contest. Paraguay's opponents thus far in the tournament have nowhere near the offensive prowess and overall footballing abilities of Spain. Keep an eye on Spanish midfielder Xavi, who created eight goal-scoring chances in his last match against Portugal. Spain will try and put Paraguay out of their comfort zone in this contest and if they do the floodgates could very well open. Paraguay struggled with the Japanese and they are way over their heads in this one. Spain will break through the Paraguayan defenders en route to the most lopsided victory of the quarterfinals. Paraguay is simply outclassed and overmatched here... Viva la Villa! Viva la Spain! Play: Spain –1 –1.20 (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
DUNKEL INDEX
Oakland at Cleveland
The A's look to take advantage of a Cleveland team that is 2-11 in Jake Westbrook's last 13 starts as a home favorite from -110 to -150. Oakland is the pick (-110) according to Dunkel, which has the A's favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110)
Game 951-952: Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.743; Cubs (Wells) 13.895
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-125); N/A
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at St. Louis (6:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 15.093; St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.011
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-200); Under
Game 955-956: Florida at Atlanta (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Sanchez) 14.812; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.689
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-160); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-160); Under
Game 957-958: NY Mets at Washington (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Dickey) 14.082; Washington (Strasburg) 15.006
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-180); Under
Game 959-960: Philadelphia at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.527; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.728
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under
Game 961-962: San Francisco at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 13.743; Colorado (Jimenez) 15.737
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-200); Over
Game 963-964: Houston at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.992; San Diego (Correia) 16.498
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Diego (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-170); Under
Game 965-966: LA Dodgers at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 14.948; Arizona (Lopez) 16.175
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+140); Under
Game 967-968: Toronto at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.011; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 13.740
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155); Under
Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Davis) 16.518; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.850
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+130); Under
Game 971-972: Oakland at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mortensen) 15.397; Cleveland (Westbrook) 14.609
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Over
Game 973-974: Seattle at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.274; Detroit (Verlander) 16.474
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Over
Game 975-976: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.900; Boston (Lester) 14.514
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-305); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+255); Under
Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 17.062; Texas (Hunter) 16.149
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+120); Under
Game 979-980: Kansas City at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 16.896; LA Angels (Santana) 15.162
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+155); Under
WNBA
Chicago at Atlanta
The Dream look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-4 ATS in last 5 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Atlanta is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2)
Game 651-652: Seattle at Los Angeles (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 117.765; Los Angeles 111.463
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 6 1/2; 147
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 8; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+8); Under
Game 653-654: Chicago at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 107.366; Atlanta 116.705
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 171
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 167
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over
Game 655-656: Washington at Tulsa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 114.271; Tulsa 104.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 10; 158
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 7; 164
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-7); Under
Frank Jordan
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox broke a 3-3 tie with a pair of runs in the top of the 9th to knock off Texas at home 5-3. Saturday things do not get any easier for Texas as they have to face John Danks who has 7 wins on the year and an era under 4 and over his last 4 starts is 3-1. Texas is throwing their own good starter in Tommy Hunter who is 4-0 with an impressive 2.15 era and in all 4 of his wins has gone at least 6 innings. Look for that streak to end as Hunter pitches deep and well but is a tough luck 4-2 loser. Play Chicago White Sox
Steve Merril
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
Play: Under 8.5
Toronto snapped a 5-game losing streak with their extra inning victory over New York on Friday afternoon. Ricky Romero gets the start for Toronto this afternoon. He's 1-1 with a 0.86 ERA in his last three starts. The lefty has given up three runs and 20 hits in his last 21 innings pitched. Romero dueled Andy Pettitte earlier this season in Toronto. He went eight innings giving up two runs and five hits. Jorge Posada (2-12), Robinson Cano (1-11), Derek Jeter (1-10), Mark Teixeira (1-9), Curtis Granderson (1-6), Kevin Russo (0-2), and Ramiro Pena (0-1) all have had a tough time with Romero. The Blue Jays still have a tough time hitting left-handed starters. As a team, they are hitting .202 against them while going Under the total in 11 of 20 games. Andy Pettitte also received a no-decision in that June 5th game against Toronto as he gave up two runs and five hits in 7.7 innings of work while striking out 10 batters. Pettitte is 6-2 with a 2.81 ERA in nine home starts this season. Lyle Overbay (3-27), Aaron Hill (4-27), Adam Lind (3-19), Alex Gonzalez (2-10), and Fred Lewis (0-4) have struggled against Pettitte. Toronto has scored just 38 runs over their last 13 games. The Yankees offense is also in bad current form as they’ve only scored 23 runs over their last seven games. They too have struggled against left-handed starters as they’ve gone Under in 17 of their 30 games against them. With both teams having trouble scoring runs and struggling against left-handed pitching, we’ll recommended a play on the Under between the Blue Jays and Yankees this afternoon.
Cajun Sports
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh starter Ross Ohlendorf became the third Pirates pitcher in as many days to win for the first time this season, limiting the Phillies to five hits over seven innings during a 2 to 0 victory Friday night. Phillies starter Jamie Moyer was solid but two infield singles by Pittsburgh and the pitcher's throwing error led to Philadelphia's fourth loss in five games. We look for the Phillies to bounce back from their two losses and get back on track tonight versus the Pirates. Philadelphia is 23-9 on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons and 38-23 in road games against left-handed starters over the last 3 seasons. Phillies starter for tonight’s game Kendrick is 18-3 versus teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season since 1997. Our TPR Index projects a Phillies victory by 2.83 runs over the Pirates so lay the short price as the Phillies stop the bleeding and get back in the win column on Saturday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 6 Pittsburgh Pirates 3
BIG AL
Astros @ Padres
PICK: Over 7
With a lot on the line, the Padres may soon have to make a decision regarding struggling starter Kevin Correia. Since going 4-1 in the month of April, Correia has only won one of his last 10 starts since then, and the Padres have been very lucky to go 5-5 in those outings but their luck will run out if the righthander doesn't turn things around and in that case he may find himself demoted to the bullpen. The one thing that saves a lot of his sub-par outings is the run support that the Padres seem to come up with when Correia is not on his game. In his last six starts, the Padres have scored 40 runs, which is an average of almost seven runs per game, which is not bad support from a team that has only averaged 4.2 runs per game this season. San Diego may once again be able to provide ample runs for Correia as the Astros will be sending righthander Bud Norris to the hill and Norris' numbers make Correia look like Roy Halladay. After 10 starts, the 25-year-old is just 2-5 with a 6.84 ERA and since the beginning of May, opponents have scored a total of 37 runs in the six games that Norris has started. Heading into Saturday night, the over is 12-3-2 in San Diego's last 17 home games. Take the 'over.'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on New York Mets +1.5 -139
Strasburg has been sensational for the Nats, but he has received no run support. Washington has only scored 1 run while losing his last 3 starts. With this in mind, I like New York's chances on the run line today. Dickey is having a sensational season for the Mets, going 6-1 with an ERA of 2.89. He is coming off his worst outing of the season, but I'm going to give him a pass because Puerto Rico's hot, muggy weather didn't do any of the pitchers any favors in the San Juan series. Plus, it will have him stepping to the mound with more focus tonight. Another thing to note is that the Mets are 5-0 in Dickey's last 5 starts as an underdog. The Nats have lost 7 of their last 9 overall and 20 of their last 26 against right-handed starters. The Mets are 7-2 in their last 9 as an underdog. Bet the Mets catching a little insurance at an affordable price.
EZWINNERS
Boston Red Sox -280
Boston's starting pitcher Jon Lester owns the Orioles. In fourteen career starts against Baltimore, Lester is a perfect 11-0 with an ERA of just 2.06. In two starts against the Orioles this season, Lester is 1-0 with an ERA of ZERO after not allowing a run in twelve innings of work. Baltimore starting pitcher Jeremy Guthrie has not had any success at all against the Red Sox. In his thirteen career starts against Boston, Guthrie is only 1-6 with an ERA of 4.52. Guthrie is not pitching very well right now as he has allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last six starts and had lost five consecutive outings before a no decision against the Nationals in his last start. I don't expect his fortunes to change in this game at Fenway. The Red Sox are 42-11 in Lester's last fifty three home starts and the Orioles are only 4-22 in Guthrie's last twenty six starts against the American League East. Play on Boston.
Gill Alexander
MIL (+185) vs STL
Over his last 34 starts, Carpenter is 21-2 w a 2.41ERA. The Red Birds are 26-8 in those ballgames. So what are we thinking here? First, Carpenter got beat up for 7ER on 7H in just 5IP when he faced Milwaukee back in April. Second, he has a bruise on his throwing arm after getting hit by a line drive in his last start. Third, the BrewCrew leads the NL w 99HR in 2010 and Carpenter has shown that he is vulnerable to the big fly this season, having given up 13 already. And fourth, and most relevant to us, his sabermetrics are much more human than his conventional stats. His 3.95FIP and 3.69xFIP are coupled with a .275 BABIP, letting us know that he's due for a bad outing sometime soon. I like the prospects of the Brewers being the team to induce just that. Carpenter's ERA-FIP of -1.24 represents the 6th widest chasm to the negative side in all of baseball. That is data-backed value that the general public simply does not get. Oh, and Parra? He has a 3.79 FIP (better than that of Carpenter) and a 3.79 xFIP. Toss in an eye-opening .375BABIP and we have ourselves a starter who has had a sensationally "unlucky" 2010 campaign thus far. For all these reasons, at +185, it is absolutely incumbent upon us to take a flier on the Brewers.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Los Angeles over Arizona
Okay, I am staying with the hot hand as the Dodgers appear to be the very best play on the board. With this selection I am going against inconsistent hurler Rodrigo Lopez of Arizona, and that’s considering he is coming in off rare back-to-back quality starts. With hurler Kershaw hitting the bump, the Dodgers usually play out of their minds going 13-3 in game #2 of a series, while fielding with a perfect 5-0 mark against teams playing .400 baseball or less.
Hollywood Sports
Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
Los Angeles puts their star lefty, Clayton Kershaw, on the hill with his 7-4 record that accompanies his 3.19 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Kershaw has been particularly tough on the road this season as evidenced by his 2.95 ERA. He squares off against Rodrigo Lopez who is 4-6 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.37 WHIP for the year. However, Lopez does not enjoy much of home-field advantage as he has a 5.09 ERA and a 1.47 while batters are hitting .300 against him at home this season.
A deeper sabermetric statistic helps to illustrate the vast difference between these two starting pitchers this season. Isolated Power (ISO) is a metric number determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Kershaw has a sparkling low ISO of .095 while Shields has a high .177 ISO. This metric exposes the fact that hitters are nailing Lopez for many more extra-base hits than they are against Kershaw. The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense of why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.
SPORTS WAGERS
Houston +1.56 over SAN DIEGO
Because of a brutal start to the year and some ugly offensive stats as a result of that brutal start, the Astros continue to offer up great value almost daily. They were shutout last night in a 3-0 loss but they faced Matt Latos and he’s been tough as shoe leather all year. In its previous four games the Astros scored a combined 25 runs and they’ve also gone 6-4 over its last 10 games. In other words, they’re playing a lot better now and that’s because they underachieved early. This is a decent team with a winning percentage of just .395 so there’s just now way they keep that underachieving pace and its ascent has already begun. Bud Norris makes his second start since coming off the DL and that has to be a positive thing. It’s almost like a horse in his second start back after a long layoff. Norris has outstanding stuff but his 6.84 ERA is what is noticeable on paper and thus, the big take-back. Thing is, he has 60 k’s in 48 frames and he’s walked just 27 batters. Upon his return he struck out six and walked one and he’s only going to get better. In this park, against this offense he most certainly has a great chance for success. Lost in the Padres’ surprising NL West run has been Kevin Correia’s month-by-month decline - including a 7.83 ERA / 5.99 xERA in 23 IP in five June starts. In his last three starts at this pitcher-friendly venue, Correia has allowed 24 hits and 14 earned runs over 16 IP and two of those three starts were against Seattle and Toronto. Win or lose, Kevin Correia as a –1.65 favorite is just plain stupid. Play: Houston +1.56 (Risking 2 units).
COLORADO –1½ +1.06 over San Francisco
Barry Zito (39 BPV, 2-4-4-0-5 PQS) is still getting mileage out of that hot April (1.53 ERA, 81% strand rate), as his ERA is still a very respectable 3.43. But his ERA in May and June was 4.30 and 4.50, respectively. His fly-ball rate by month (39%, 42%, 50%) isn’t encouraging and neither is he. Zito will deliver some decent games the remainder of the year but don’t count on too many, especially in this park. What he hasn't done is discover a time machine that has allowed him to travel back to the year 2002 and retrieve the skills he had when he won the American League Cy Young. Thanks to a fastball that tops out in the high 80's, Zito is still flashing the same mediocre stuff that says he can't get out of trouble on his own ... and that hasn't changed despite what his ERA would suggest. Fact is, he’s just not that good. Furthermore, the Giants are reeling with seven straight losses and one win over its last 10 games. They’ve scored three runs or less in seven straight and things surely don’t figure to get better here. Ubaldo Jimenez (90 BPV, 5-4-4-3-4 PQS) is still rolling along, going for his 15th win and still sporting a sub-2.00 ERA. His dominance/disaster splits are an amazing 94%/0%. The 90%+ strand rate he had in April and May finally pulled back in June, and he had a 4.41 ERA in the month but he’s still pitching very well and he’s still one of the best in the business. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 over ARIZONA
It just so happened that the Dodgers were on the wrong end of a 17-run game last night when the D-Backs broke out for 12 runs. However, the Dodgers still scored five times and have now scored 34 runs over its last four games at this park. What can be expected when these two meet are runs galore and the majority of those runs for this one should come off the bats of the Dodgers. Rodrigo Lopez (30 BPV, 4-4-1-3-3 PQS) gets the nod tonight. Ian Kennedy was originally scheduled to start, but is being pushed back in an effort to mitigate the risk of overuse. Lopez has seen his command drop and fly balls rise after a decent April, and his current 4.42 ERA looks like a best-case scenario. The Dodgers have seen him twice already this year and that has to be a strong advantage for them. Clayton Kershaw (77 BPV, 4-5-5-5-5 PQS) comes into this game on a 10-game PQS-dominant streak. You have to go back to May 4th to find his only PQS disaster of the year. In 16 starts overall, Kershaw has a BAA of just .206 and he also has 108 k’s in 98 innings. This one could get ugly. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 over CHICAGO
What can one say about the Cubbies after yesterday’s totally humiliating defeat? Poor Ryan Dempster needed to throw a shutout and hit a home run himself to win yesterday. Lou didn't even show up to make any postgame remarks. Maybe he's finally had enough. Now Randy Wells will start with the winds blowing out to center at 15-20 MPH. Wells has gone eleven consecutive starts without a win, so this game is certainly a story of two starting pitchers on divergent paths. Wells has gone 11 consecutive starts without a win and that has to take its toll. He’s consistently served up a 25% line-drive rate this year and that simply spells big-time trouble with the winds blowing out. Johnny Cueto might allow a few runs too but his chances of a strong outing are about 100 times better than Wells chances. Cueto also is a strikeout pitcher and that, too, is a big asset when a favorable hitter’s wind is blowing at Wrigley. No matter how you break this one down, the Cubbies chances of winning aren’t good. This is a team in complete turmoil and aside from seeing BB’s at the plate, they’re mentally drained to the max. Play: Cincinnati –1½ +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.85 over ST. LOUIS
The most overrated and overvalued team in baseball continues to be the St. Louis Cardinals and taking back a tag like this, despite Chris Carpenter going, comes highly recommended. It’s worth noting that despite going 3-0 in June, Carpenters skills are trending downward. His walks are up (eight in the last two games) and his groundball rate is coming down game by game. Let’s also not forget that he pitched just 21 innings combined in ’07 and ’08 followed by 192 frames last year so fatigue could be setting in. He also took a line drive off his arm in his last start and it stung badly. In fact, it wasn’t even clear that Carpenter was going to be able to make this start. Also note that Milwaukee’s lineup is hot, with a league-leading .491 SLG over the last seven days. Manny Parra (86 BPV, 3-5-5-3-2 PQS) has faced the Cardinals more than any other team in his career, and he probably wishes he could face them all the time. Among teams he’s faced more than three times, Parra’s 3.00 ERA against the Cardinals is his best. Over his last five starts, Parra has allowed more than three runs just one time and that includes a game in Colorado and a game against the Rangers. There is huge talent here and there is also huge value so get on Parra before he’s back on everyone’s radar. Play: Milwaukee +1.85 (Risking 2 units).