Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -1.5 -145
I'll take Boston on the run line with Lester on the hill. The Red Sox have won 9 of Lester's last 12 starts, and all 9 of those wins have come by 2 or more runs. On the other side, the O's have lost 5 of Guthrie's last 6 starts, losing all 5 of those games by at least 3 runs. Furthermore, Baltimore is 0-12 with Guthrie on the mound over the last 2 seasons when facing AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs per game on the season. Baltimore is losing by an average score of 2.9 to 7.4 in these spots. It is also worth noting that Boston is 17-1 with Lester on the hill at home the last 3 seasons when facing AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs per game on the season. Boston is winning in these spots by an average score of 5.8 to 2.2. Take the Red Sox on the run line.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago Cubs +112
Reasons the Cubs win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Road teams (CINCINNATI) - good hitting team (AVG >=.275) against an average starting pitcher (ERA=4.20 to 5.20) -NL, playing on Saturday. This is a 50-18 ML System hitting 73.5% since 1997 and gaining +35.6 units.
2.) The Cubs will show pride today after getting thumped 12-0 by the Reds Friday. Randy Wells is 2-0 with a 3.42 ERA in 4 lifetime starts vs. Cincinnati. Johnny Cueto is 2-5 with a 4.59 ERA in 8 lifetime starts vs. Chicago. Bet the Cubs at home.
Tom Freese
Giants vs. Rockies
Play: Under 7½
Colorado starter Ubaldo Jimenez is 11-5 UNDER in 16 starts this year Jimenez has allowed 23 runs total in his 16 starts. The Rockies are 6-2 UNDER their last 8 home games vs. lefty starters. Jimenez is 25-12-1 UNDER his last 38 starts overall. These teams have gone UNDER in 7 of their last 9 meetings. San Francisco starter Barry Zito is 10-6 UNDER in his 16 starts this year. The Giants are 10-3 UNDER their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP of less than 1.15. Zito is 12-3-1 UNDER on Saturday and he is 5-0 UNDER vs. AL West teams. Zito is 8-3-1 his last 12 starts vs. the Rockies
Matt Rivers
I think I have faded these Cubs for the better part of the last month or so and I'm sure you are seeing exactly why.
It's not the lock of my life or the greatest value ever backing a road team like this, just like yesterday, but the Cubs are a total disgrace and nothing at all seems to be changing. I say once again, just like yesterday, I might as well just cut and paste my writeups from the past few weeks fading these underachieving clowns because it may be a new day but nothing is different.
Lou Pinella is basically gone as he has done nothing good for this organization and the players themselves are regressing by the day. What on God's green Earth has happened to Lee, Soriano and Ramirez? I mean seriously. All three were All-Star beasts that had MVP potential. Now thhe trio can't even hit the ball out of the infield.
Throw in Fukudome and Soto and you have two guys that are just beyond lost. It's unreal how horrific, inept and pathetic the North Siders have become.
I don't mind Randy Wells, ala Ryan Dempster yesterday, but Wells has not been as rock solid as last season and he has a team that is the epitome of mush. This Chicago team has just become a disease of epic proportions. Whatever they do turns to absolute dog doo. Dempster looked good yesterday but the team culdn't do squat at the plate. The day before they couldn't hit a rookie making his major league debut.
Johnny Cueto is a very good pitcher most of the time and I see no reason at all why today won't equal "most of the time". Sure it's not the greatest value on the road to not get any money with the Reds, who are not the most talented team on the planet, but the Cubs are just that bad right now.
Fading the Cubbies has been an absolute cash cow and until that well dries up a little I'm going to ride it for all its worth.
Pick: Cincinnati -118.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins
After losing the first game of this four series the Twins bounced back last night to beat the Rays 2-1. Tonight the Twins send Liriano while the Rays start Davis. The sportsbooks have the Twins as lofty $150 favorites but the Rays are worth a look at this price considering that the Twins are only 7-14 this season after allowing 2 runs or less in their last game and Liriano has an awful 2-10 team start record when facing AL East opponents. Add in the fact that Tampa is 8-1 this season on the road against pitchers like Liriano and you have a very live dog in the Rays.
Play on: Tampa Bay
Tony Karpinski
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are 11-3 their last 14 road games and took the first game of the series last night and I think they’ll win again today. Texas has struggled against winning teams this season posting a 7-16 record versus teams above .500. John Danks gets the start tonight for Chicago and he’s been consistent again this season with a 3.62 ERA and 1.206 WHIP.
JR O'Donnell
CHC (+111) vs CIN
Cubbies have Our call as the O'ster has won 6 in row and #7 is just a flat out fade the public play and the J. Cueto show is not a movie we want to see! Cubbies held to 2 hits last night and the Cinnci Reds at a pick em to -120 today. We have played the Cubbies in this spot with success and today's play just does not make sense!! Chi Cubbies are in a dire straights situation. The Express will be on the Cubbies island by himself and Wells wins ugly today behind a home crowd and "the Boys" from the North side win. The Cinnci Reds should be a -150 to -160 chalk here!!
ROCKETMAN
Tampa Bay @ Minnesota
Play: Minnesota -140
Minnesota is 45-19 last 3 years and 14-2 this year as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Minnesota is 26-15 at home this year. Minnesota has won 3 of their last 4 games overall. Minnesota bullpen has a 2.80 ERA overall and a 2.62 ERA at home this season. Wade Davis is 0-3 his last 3 starts. Francisco Liriano has a 3.47 ERA overall this year and a 3.12 ERA at home this season. Liriano is 2-1 with a 2.39 ERA overall vs Tampa Bay since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Minnesota today!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -1.5 +126
The Mariners have been playing better baseball in recent weeks. They even took 2 of 3 from the Yanks. But this is still one of the worst road teams in baseball, and they got hit with a harsh dose of reality with yesterday's 7-1 defeat. The Tigers bring ace Justin Verlander to the hill, and they have won 8 of his last 11 starts by 2 runs or more. It is also worth noting that the Tigers are an impressive 28-5 in Verlander's last 33 home starts against a team with a losing record, winning these starts by an average score of 6.4 to 3.7. Take the Tigers showing solid value on the run line.
Jack Jones
Rays/Twins OVER 8.5
The Rays and Twins have played part in a couple pitcher's duels in the first two games of this series, but as a result I find solid value on the OVER in Game 3. Wade Davis has really struggled this season for Tampa, going 5-9 with a 4.68 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. His numbers get even worse on the road, where he is 2-3 with a 5.10 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. Francisco Liriano has been a solid starter this season for Minnesota, but he has faltered of late going 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.500 WHIP over his last 3 starts.
I find the Rays scoring 5.6 RPG on the road this season, while the Twins are putting up 5.0 RPG at home and also hitting .285 here. The Twins are 39-20 to the OVER after scoring and allowing 3 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. Minnesota and their opponents are coming back to average 10.6 RPG in this spot. The OVER is 10-3 in Rays last 13 games as a road underdog. The OVER is 5-2 in Davis' last 7 starts as an underdog. Look for the bats to come out to play tonight with 9 or more combined runs in the end. Take the OVER.
Wunderdog
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1½
The Yankees lost a heartbreaker yesterday in extra innings to Toronto. They will have what has been their best pitcher this year, and the second half of last year on the hill today vs. a struggling Blue Jays lineup. Andy Pettitte has been the best pitcher in baseball over his last 23 decisions, posting a 19-4 mark. It gets even better than that if you like the runline option, as I do here. The Yankees are 20-2 in Pettitte's last 22 wins to a -1.5 runline. The Blue Jays are the AL's worst run production team against left-hand pitching. I'll go with the Yankees in this one.
Jeff Benton
I’m now on a 97-66-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, I’ll take a shot with Tampa Bay as a big road underdog against the Twins.
I know that Tampa Bay rookie Wade Davis (5-9, 4.68 ERA) has been a bit of a disappointment so far. And I realize that the Rays have lost eight of his last 10 starts, including the last five in a row. That said, since May 2, the right-hander has made 11 starts and held nine of those 11 opponents – including the last four in a row – to three earned runs or fewer. Over those last four outings, Davis has allowed 10 runs in 23 2/3 innings (3.80 ERA).
The reason he doesn’t have anything to show for those four strong efforts is because Tampa Bay scored 2, 2, 1 and 1 run. In fact, the Rays have now tallied three runs or fewer in 10 of his 15 starts. Why will today be any different, especially against hard-throwing Twins lefty Francisco Liriano? Because Liriano is in a rut. He gave up six runs in six innings in Monday’s 7-5 home loss to the Tigers, and he’s now 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts.
And as much trouble as the Rays have had getting wins for Davis, the Twins are just 3-7 in Liriano’s last 10 starts, including 1-4 in his last five home outings. Overall, Minnesota has lost 12 of its last 19 games – including seven of the last 11 – and they’ve been terrible against the A.L. East recently (16-36 last 52 games). Conversely, Tampa Bay is on positive runs of 6-3 against the A.L. Central, 27-14 on the road, 9-3 against lefty starters on the road and 25-9 on Saturday.
3♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS
Stephen Nover
Tonight I'm going to take +1 1/2 runs with the Toronto Blue Jays on the run line against the New York Yankees.
Runs figure to be hard to come by in a pitching matchup of Ricky Romero versus Andy Pettitte. So getting 1 1/2 runs at the expense of small juice is worth the price.
Romero has a 1.88 ERA in his last six starts. He's surrendered just two earned runs during his past three starts spanning 21 innings.
Note that this is a day game. Romero is 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA in day contests this season.
The Yankees haven't been scoring. They have scored more than four runs only once in their past seven games.
Pettitte is having a strong year, but you have to wonder if the 38-year-old might be hitting a wall as the long season nears All-Star break. Pettitte was not sharp in his last start, yielding four earned runs and six hits to the Dodgers in five innings.
Pettitte is giving up an average of one homer per game during his past eight starts. Toronto leads the majors in home runs.
The Blue Jays have defeated Pettitte in four of the last five times they've faced him at Yankee Stadium.
2♦ BLUE JAYS +1.5
Derek Mancini
Back-to-Back Free Play winners with the Athletics last night and the Nationals Thursday! Loving this spot for the lowly Pirates, who've caught the Phillies in the midst of some serious injury issues, and now trot out one of their best as their 4-game series continues tonight.
Phillies are struggling bad - no other way to put it. Injuries to Polanco and now Utley has rendered them impotent, losing 4 of their L5, scoring a combined 8 runs in those 4 losses. Manuel is doing the best he can with what he has, but right now the Phillies are vulnerable, and it doesn't get any easier tonight.
If there was one Pirates pitcher Philadelphia doesn't want to see, it would be tonight's starter, Paul Maholm (5-6, 3.98). The lefty is 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA in 6 career starts against the Phillies. But better yet, he's been outstanding of late, going 1-0 with 0.78 ERA in his L3 starts against them. After a disgusting start in Arlington, Maholm got his swagger back in dominating the Cubs Monday, surrendering a single run over 8 innings.
I'm not going to sit here and try and convince you the Pirates are the better team - obviously that's not the case. However, at this point, considering the many key injuries AND the pitching match up (Kendrick 9 earned over his L10 1/3 innings), you've got to like the Pirates and Maholm at this price. The public still believes they're going to see a bounce back, but I couldn't disagree more. Pirates (Maholm) over Phillies (Kendrick) Saturday.
3♦ PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Scott Delaney
Solid total winner last night, as the Under cashed in between the Astros and Padres.
Tonight it'll be Cleveland, with Jake Westbrook, over Oakland and Clayton Mortensen, who will be called up from Triple-A Sacramento to start in place of the injured Dallas Braden.
Though the righty was 10-2 with a 3.58 ERA in 15 starts at Sacramento, he is 2-4 with a 7.63 ERA in seven major league appearances, all last season.
With this being his first MLB start for 2010, I believe he will struggle on the road.
I'd rather side with Westbrook, who comes in after one of his best starts in 2010. He tossed six frames against Toronto last Monday, giving up one run in a 2-1 victory.
Westbrook will be out to avenge an earlier-season loss to the A's, as the right-hander gave up four runs and eight hits in five innings of a 10-0 loss at Oakland on April 23. That was after winning five straight decisions against the A's.
I'll take the Indians here.
2♦ CLEVELAND