Bobby Maxwell
Tonight's FREE winner is a RunLine play as I am extremely confident in the Nationals as they host the Mets in this Saturday afternoon matchup from Washington, D.C.
I fully expect Nationals’ rookie sensation Stephen Strasburg to come out and deliver a gem today in front of a packed house in Washington. And don’t worry about the offense, the Nationals will put a few across to get the easy winner here.
Strasburg (2-2, 2.27 ERA) is coming off his worst outing since joining the team on June 8. He gave up four runs (three earned) on six hits in 6.1 innings of a 5-0 loss in Atlanta. Now, the Nationals have lost his last three starts, but they’ve scored a grand total of one run in those three games. At home, Strasburgh has allowed just four earned runs in 20 innings of work.
From what we’ve seen of this rookie, he is a crazy competitor and he wants to go out and prove that it was just a bad outing in Atlanta. He’ll be in outstanding form for this one.
The Mets’ R.A. Dickey (6-1, 2.98) had looked almost untouchable since joining their rotation in May. That is until Monday in Puerto Rico when the Marlins touched him up for five runs in five innings of a 10-3 rout of the Mets. Dickey made his first start against these Nationals in Washington back on May 19 and allowed two runs in six innings of a 5-3 loss, but he got a no-decision.
New York has dropped 3 of 5 on this road trip and haven’t looked as dominant as they were looking the three weeks prior.
I’m jumping on the plus-money RunLine play here as Strasburg is going to be unhittable. Look for Washington to win a low-scoring game, 4-1 or 3-0, and Strasburg to get the win. Grab plus-money and play the Nationals on the RunLine.
2♦ WASHINGTON -1.5
Brett Atkins
Today's comp winner is coming with some nice plus-money as I go ahead and grab the Astros to get the win against the Padres in San Diego.
Tonight could be crazy at Petco Park in San Diego as both the Astros and Padres are sending starters to the hill that have struggled to get guys out lately.
I’m banking on the Astros doing more damage though, as they seem to always come away with wins in San Diego. Kevin Correia is pitching for the Padres and this guy has been a disaster lately. He’s 1-2 with an 8.07 ERA in his last six outings and since the start of May he’s 1-5 with a 6.36.
Now Correia has to face a lineup that includes Lance Berkman who loves hitting in Petco Park and has the highest average of any player with 75 or more at-bats in the stadium at .381.
Houston should get enough runs to outlast the Padres in this one. Play the Astros.
2♦ HOUSTON
Michael Cannon
Take the Pirates for the home win over the Phillies.
Don’t look now, but Pittsburgh has won three straight. The Bucs have a great chance to make it four in a row behind Paul Maholm tonight.
The left-hander has been brilliant against the Phillies, going 3-1 with a 3.29 ERA in six career starts against them, including a 1-0 mark with a 0.78 ERA in the last three.
The Phillies are a beat-up team right now. They have lost three straight and five of seven.
Philly has seven players on the DL right now, which may explain why they have scored just five runs over their last three games.
I like the Bucs to stretch their winning streak to four in a row.
Take the Pirates for the home win.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Jay McNeil
Chicago at Texas
Take the Rangers tonight, as Hunter will outduel Danks in what should be an easy win.
Hunter is 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA in 16 career starts in Arlington, and comes in after a dominating performance against the Astros on Sunday, allowing one run and five hits in the 10-1 win.
Danks is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in four career starts against the Rangers.
All Texas.
2♦ RANGERS
Joel Tyson
For Saturday night, I will look for Texas to stop their losing skid at 2 games as they host the White Sox once again.
Chicago was a 5-3 winner last night, but the fact remains the Rangers are 28-13 at home this season, and tonight they have the pitcher to add to that record.
Texas starter Tommy Hunter is now 4-0 on the year, and all 4 of those wins have come at home. This will be his 3rd start in a row in his home ball park, and it is quite obvious that he feels comfortable pitching on top of the mound at Arlington!
John Danks got beat up his last start, allowing the Cubs to get to him for 6 runs in his 5 innings of work.
Gonna look for the big Texas bats to do some more damage to Mr. Danks this Saturday night, as the Rangers get the win.
3♦ TEXAS
Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes in daytime action from Wrigley Field, as I’ll take the scorching-hot Reds against the freefalling Cubs.
Cincinnati is on a 9-2 hot streak that includes winning the first two games of this four-game series by scores of 3-2 and 12-0. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Chicago has lost 20 of its last 30 games, including 10 of the last 14. The Cubs aren’t hitting a lick, having scored just six times in the last five games, and they’ve been shutout (five times), held to one run (seven times) or two runs (four times) in 16 of their last 30 contests.
Now Chicago has to face hard-throwing Reds right-hander Johnny Cueto, who has yielded just two runs total in his last three starts (20 2/3 innings). Going back to April 30, Cueto has held nine of 12 opponents to three earned runs or less (and in eight of those nine, he’s allowed two or less).
Most importantly, the Reds have cashed in on Cueto’s success, winning 10 of those 12 ballgames, including five of six on the road. By comparison, the Cubs are just 1-6 in Randy Wells’ last seven starts, scoring a total of 10 runs in six of those seven games (and just 15 runs in all).
Cincinnati is now 6-2 against the Cubs this season, winning the last four in a row. It has also won four straight on the highway six of seven on Saturday and 44 of 63 against N.L. Central foes. Two teams going in different directions here, and we’ll side with the better pitcher and the team trending north.
5♦ CINCINNATI REDS
Craig Trapp
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
Make this simple! Both these teams have been super hot but TEX at home does not lose twice in a row. Plus Danks has show some chinks in his armor including 6 ER's last time out. Historically Danks is not good against his home state Rangers with a plus 4 ERA as well. Hunter tries to keep his undefeated run going as his team leading 2.15 ERA continues to impress. Better lineup and hotter pitcher will take the Rangers!
Black Widow
1* on Texas Rangers -139
We'll take the Rangers to get back in the win column tonight after 2 straight losses, including a blown 3-1 lead to the White Sox last night. Texas is 47-32 this season, and 28-13 at home where they are hitting .304 and scoring 6.1 runs/game. The White Sox are only hitting .252 and scoring 4.4 runs/game on the road. The edge on the mound goes to Tommy Hunter of the Rangers, who is 4-0 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in 5 starts this season. John Danks sports a 4.50 ERA in 6 road starts, and Danks is 1-2 with a 4.38 ERA in 4 career starts against Texas. The Rangers are 21-7 (+10.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 this season. The Rangers are 9-0 in their last 9 during game 2 of a series and 7-0 in Hunter's last 7 starts as a home favorite. Take Texas on the Money Line.
Dan Bebe
PIT / PHI Under 8.5
It's time to get the July 4th weekend going, so this needs to be quick.
The Pirates are on a run of 7 straight Unders, and are averaging just 1.7 runs per game over their last 7.
The Phillies are on a string of 3 straight Unders of their own, and have scored a grand total of 5 runs in their last 3 games.
Kyle Kendrick has a strong history against the Pirates, going 8 innings of 2-run ball against them earlier this year. Maholm has done nice work against Philadelphia historically, and they're without Chase Utley (among others).
With both teams struggling to score, both pitchers with decent numbers against the opposing lineup, and if that's not enough, the Pirates haven't scored more than 3 runs in a game since June 25th. To call this team anemic, offensively, is the grossest understatement in baseball.
Even if they score 3, the Phils would need to put up 6 runs. This one is staying Under, probably by a few runs.
Scott Rickenbach
Astros @ Padres
PICK: Under 7
As a home favorite in a price range of -150 to -175, the Padres are 17-3 to the under the last three seasons! In Saturday games this season, San Diego is an amazing 10-2 to the under. The Padres shutout the Astros last night and they are 7-1 to the under this season when they shutout their opponent in their prior game. Kevin Correia is coming off of a very rough start for San Diego in his last outing. However, Correia has still allowed 7 hits or less in a start of at least 5 innings in 7 of his last 10 starts.
The way the Astros offense is going, don’t be surprised if Correia enjoys plenty of success against punchless Houston. As for Bud Norris, he’s also coming off of a rough start but, prior to that, he allowed just 45 hits while striking out 51 in his last 8 starts spanning 41 innings. Also, the Astros are 5-2 to the under this season when Norris gets the start and is opposed by a right-handed starter. Two of the lower-scoring teams in the league are matched up for this one. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in San Diego on Saturday evening.
SPORTS WAGERS
Brock Lesnar –1.20 (-2½ Points) over Shane Carwin
When this fight was first announced it looked like Shane Carwin would be the play. However, on the day of the fight it sure looks like Brock Lesnar sports all the value. The only doubt surrounding Brock Lesnar is his ring rust and health after being away from the game for a year with a serious case of diverticulitis. Before his absence, Brock won the UFC heavyweight title in just his 4th career MMA fight and looked to be unbeatable. The only blemish on his MMA record was a first round submission loss to Frank Mir when he was still very green in the octagon. Since then he completely destroyed the likes of Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Frank Mir. Shane Carwin is 12-0 in his MMA career and 4-0 in the UFC. Nobody has ever escaped the first round against Carwin but his opponents in those matches aren’t exactly a who's who of mixed martial arts. His first two fights in the UFC came against Neil Wain and Christian Wellisch. Wain was one and done in the UFC with that loss and Wellisch is 2-3 in the UFC. His next victory came against Gabriel Gonzaga who has lost four of his last seven fights in the UFC. Gonzaga actually caught him with some effective blows that seemed to daze Carwin before being caught with a short right that sent him to la-la-land. Carwin won the Interim heavyweight belt by completely obliterating Frank Mir. Anyone who saw that fight may have noticed that something was just not right with Mir. He looked unmotivated and absent in his walk to the octagon and in his corner before the fight. Shane Carwin is certainly impressive but he has never fought anyone with the athleticism and explosiveness of Brock Lesnar. Carwin sports some wrestling credentials but Lesnar's resume is second to none in the UFC. Brock will try to neutralize Carwin's striking ability by putting him on his back. He will smother him, try to invoke his lethal ground and pound and try to wear him out. There are questions surrounding Lesnar's cardio following his illness but who says Carwin won't gas-out past the 1st round? In winning every fight in the first round, his cardio has never been put to the test. It's very hard for an athlete to do something they have never done before and Carwin will have to do just that if he wants to be victorious here. Carwin has the biggest hands and heaviest hands in all of MMA but Lesnar should never give him the opportunity to land a lethal blow. Brock will dominate this fight with his superior wrestling and overall athleticism. He opened the fight nearly a 2-1 favorite but all the late money has been pouring in on Carwin. Late money in MMA isn't always smart money, as it came in by the boatload on Chuck Liddell at UFC 115 against Rich Franklin. A lot of that money is public money and it flies in after MMA fans watch the highlight packages that are almost always cut to glorify the underdog. The value in this "superfight" certainly appears to be with laying 2½ points with the ever- dominant Lesnar. If Brock wins "inside the distance" our wager is a winner and if it goes to decision he will have to win by 2½ combined judges points. It is very unlikely that it will go the distance but if it does Lesnar should easily cover that. Play: Brock Lesnar –2½ points –1.20 (Risking 2 units).
Brendan Schaub by KO/TKO –1.42 over Chris Tuchscherer 5dimes
Brendan "The Hybrid" Schaub is a guy that the UFC has been pushing for a while now. He made it all the way to the finals of the 'Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights' edition but lost to Roy "Big Country" Nelson. Schaub certainly had credentials entering the UF house, playing professional football until starting off 4-0 in his mixed martial arts career. He rebounded from his loss to Nelson with a very impressive 47 second, first round KO of Chase Gormley. Chris Tuchscherer entered the UFC with a 17-1 record but was knocked out by Gabriel Gonzaga in his UFC debut. He came back to beat Tim Hague via majority decision in his next bout but that's the same Tim Hague that's lost three consecutive matches. Schaub is a natural athlete loaded with speed and explosiveness. He will dictate the pace of the fight with his edge in both wrestling and striking. Tuchscherer's biggest asset, his large frame, will actually be a liability against the quicker and more agile Schaub. Brendan Schaub is certainly a fighter on the rise and Tuchscherer is just a stepping-stone on his way upward. He is a fighter that likes to finish his fights and you can rest assure he will be looking for the knockout blow early and often. Play: Brendan Schaub by TKO/KO (Risking 2.82 units to win 2).