SPORTS ADVISORS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Toronto (42-39) at N.Y. Yankees (46-33)
The Blue Jays trot out ace right-hander Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56 ERA) to face struggling righty Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06) and the Yankees in the second game of a four-game series at Yankee Stadium.
New York rode the arm of A.J. Burnett to a 4-2 victory in Friday’s series opener, with the right-hander allowing two runs on six hits and two walks in seven innings, with seven strikeouts. The Yankees have won eight of their last nine and are on further upticks of 6-0 against right-handers, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-8 in the Bronx.
On the flip side, Toronto is on slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 0-4 on Saturday and 3-11 inside the A.L. East, but they are on a 5-1 surge on the road against winning teams.
New York is 3-1 this season against Toronto, after going 8-9 against the Jays last year, and the Yanks are 5-2 in Wang’s last seven home starts against Toronto. But with Halladay on the hill, the Blue Jays are on rolls in this rivalry of 21-7 overall and 10-4 at Yankee Stadium.
Toronto had won seven of nine behind Halladay before losing in his last two starts. On Monday at home against Tampa Bay, Halladay allowed two runs on five hits and two walks in six innings, but his teammates didn’t put up a run until the eighth inning of a 4-1 loss. Halladay is 4-0 with a solid 1.88 ERA in six road starts this year, and he’s 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 33 lifetime appearances (31 starts) against the Pinstripes. On May 12, he allowed just one run on five hits, with no walks and five strikeouts, in a complete-game 5-1 home win over New York.
With Halladay starting, Toronto is on runs of 89-43 overall, 13-6 on the road, 4-1 against winning teams and 45-18 in division play.
Wang finally notched his first win of the season last Sunday, yielding two runs on four hits and three walks in 5 1/3 innings of a 4-2 road win against the Mets. The 29-year-old is 0-2 with a whopping 11.57 ERA in four home appearances (three starts) this year, and he’s 4-2 with a 4.63 ERA in nine career starts against Toronto.
New York is 48-23 in Wang’s last 71 starts and 39-16 in his last 55 home outings, but the Mets are on slides behind the right-hander of 1-4 in division play and 2-8 with Wang an underdog.
The under for Toronto is on runs of 6-0-1 overall, 21-8 in the A.L. East and 12-5 on the road, but with Halladay starting, the over is on streaks of 17-6 overall, 8-3 against winning teams, 8-3 in division contests and 7-3 on the road. Likewise, with Wang starting for New York, the over is on rolls of 9-4-1 overall, 11-4-2 against winning teams and 5-1 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TORONTO and OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
N.Y. Mets (39-40) at Philadelphia (40-37)
The Phillies send veteran left-hander Jamie Moyer (6-6, 2.05 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park for the second game of a three-game weekend set with the N.L. East rival Mets, who will counter with right-hander Fernando Nieve (3-1, 2.25).
In Friday’s opener, Philadelphia rolled to a 7-2 victory, putting up all seven runs over the first three innings and coasting from there. The Phillies, though, are still a dismal 14-22 at home this season and are on a number of negative streaks, including 4-12 overall, 2-9 as a favorite, 1-6 at home and 6-16 at home against righties.
New York is 13-7 in its last 20 division contests, but is otherwise on slides of 2-6 overall, 1-6 against winning teams and 1-4 on Saturdays.
The Mets went 4-1 in their first five games of the year against the Phillies, but Philadelphia has rebounded to win the last three in row in this rivalry, and the Phils are 4-1 in Moyer’s last five starts against New York.
Philadelphia has won in three of Moyer’s last four starts, including a 5-4 victory Sunday at Toronto, where the 46-year-old allowed four runs on five hits (three homers) and two walks in just five innings, yet still got the winning decision. Moyer is 2-4 with an inflated 7.15 ERA in seven home starts this season, and he’s 7-5 with a more respectable 3.66 ERA in 20 career starts against the Mets.
However, in back-to-back starts against New York in May -- one at home, one on the road -- he allowed 12 earned runs on 14 hits and six walks in just eight total innings. On May 7 at New York, he got pelted for seven runs on seven hits and two walks in just 2 1/3 innings of a 7-5 loss. Despite those negatives, the Phils are 32-11 in Moyer’s last 43 starts against N.L. East foes.
Nieve won his first three starts of the year, getting plenty of support as the Mets pushed 22 runs across while Nieve allowed just three runs over 18 2/3 innings (1.44 ERA). However, in his last outing, Nieve got roughed up for three runs on 11 hits and a walk in just 3 1/3 innings Monday during a 10-6 loss at Milwaukee. Nieve is 1-1 with a 3.75 ERA in three outings (two starts) on the road this year, and though he’s only pitched 1 1/3 career innings against the Phillies (over five relief appearances), he’s 0-1 with an astronomical 33.75 ERA against them.
The under is on a 12-5-1 roll with the Phils a home chalk and is 7-1 for Philadelphia behind Moyer. The under is also on a 6-2 run for New York in division play. But in this rivalry, the over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings at Citizens Bank Park.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at San Diego
The Padres look to take advantage of a Dodger team that is just 1-5 in Randy Wolf's last 6 starts on the road against teams with a losing record. San Diego is the pick (+145) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+155).
Game 951-952: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.677; Washington (Lannan) 15.469
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+120); Under
Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Looper) 14.416; Cubs (Harden) 15.581
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-160); N/A
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Thompson) 15.361; Cincinnati (Owings) 14.310
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-110); Over
Game 957-958: Houston at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Ortiz) 15.365; San Francisco (Lincecum) 17.086
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-210); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-210); Under
Game 959-960: NY Mets at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Nieve) 14.746; Philadelphia (Moyer) 13.806
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+135); Over
Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.118; Florida (Miller) 14.217
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+125); Under
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 14.616; San Diego (Geer) 14.765
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+145); Under
Game 965-966: Arizona at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 15.226; Colorado (Cook) 15.074
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+180); Under
Game 967-968: Seattle at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Olson) 16.612; Boston (Penny) 15.681
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-220); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+190); Over
Game 969-970: Toronto at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.272; NY Yankees (Wang) 16.295
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+125); Under
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.195; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.329
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under
Game 973-974: Detroit at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Jackson) 15.618; Minnesota (Liriano) 14.160
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Detroit (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-110); Under
Game 975-976: Oakland at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 14.526; Cleveland (Pavano) 13.728
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Oakland (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Over
Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 17.089; Texas (Holland) 15.666
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 11
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-130); Over
Game 979-980: Baltimore at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 16.244; LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 15.335
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Over
Jimmy The Moose
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St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
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The teams played over the total last night. The over is 11-4 in the Cardinals last 15 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Thompson takes the mound for the Cardinals this afternoon and over his last 3 starts his ERA is 6.50 and all 3 games have played over the total. The over is 6-1 in Thompson's last 7 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Reds have played over the total in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 7-2 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The last 5 meetings in Cincinnati have played over the total and the total is a profitable 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall.
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Play on: Over
Cajun Sports
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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The Blue Jays lost game one of this four-game set with the Yankees 4 to 2 on Friday night and look to rebound with their ace on the bump Saturday afternoon. Toronto will send Roy Halladay to the hill with his 10-2 W/L record and ERA of 2.56 on the season. Halladay is 4-2 W/L on the highway this year with an ERA of 1.88. When he takes the bump versus the Yankees he is 16-5 W/L with an ERA of 2.75 and a WHIP of 1.096. Toronto is 21-7 W/L his last twenty-eight starts versus New York and 10-4 W/L when he takes the mound in Gotham. The Yankees are 9-22 W/L (-16.7) versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.100 or better over the last 3 seasons. New York is also 1-6 W/L their last 7 as home underdogs of 150 or less and 2-8 W/L when Wang is installed as an underdog. Todays starter for New York will be Chen-Ming Wang and he has a record of 1-6 W/L on the season struggling out of the gate with an ERA of 10.06. Unfortunately for the Yankees he is worse at home with a record of 0-2 W/L and an ERA of 13.09. Our Pitcher Efficiency Ratings Index project a closer matchup than one would think with Wang struggling but it stills predicts a Halladay win in the end. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index signals a win by the Blue Jays as well by 0.95 runs over the host Yankees. Combine these factors and the Blue Jays get the win in Gotham on Saturday afternoon.
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Graded Selection: 2* Toronto Blue Jays 4 New York Yankees 2
Craig Trapp
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Betting Trends
-Dodgers are 6-1 in Wolfs last 7 starts as a favorite.
-Padres are 0-5 in Geers last 5 starts as an underdog.
-Dodgers are 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
-Padres are 6-14 in their last 20 overall.
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Well the first game back for Manny was a success and today think we will see the same thing. The LAD had struggled to score but yesterday with his return they scored 6 runs. Wolf starts for the LAD today and he has been pretty good lately even though he has not got many wins. In his last 4 he has only gave up 8 runs in 20 innings. His real problem has been run support but think he will get it today. Going to the mound for SD is Geer who has been horrible in his last 10 games. He has given up more than 2 runs in every start except 2 in his last 10. In that time period he has one win and his team has only managed to win in his three of the ten games. Expect him to give up 5 runs minimum today in 4 innings. This one will not be close even put a small wager on run line here!!!
Marc Lawrence
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Play On: NY Mets
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A big battle in the NL East takes place in Philadelphia this afternoon where the Phillies send Jamie Moyer to the mound against Fernando Nieve and the Mets. Nieve has been a pleasnt surprise for the Mets with wins in 3 of his 4 team starts this season. Meanwhile, Moyer is 8-7 in his team starts this season, having lasted more than 6 innings on only one occasion. This is just about the time of the year Moyer begins to show his age. He is just 6-14 in his last 20 team starts on Saturdays and the Phillies are 6-16 at home against righties this season. Look for the Mets to get to Moyer and the Phils here this afternoon.
Red Dog Sports Free
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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City
Play under 9
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Red Dog Sports won yesterday's free play on the under in this matchup. The White Sox and Royals have combined for 64 overs, 90 unders and 3 pushes. In the last 11 meetings there have been 8 unders and 3 overs. The Sox haver played 36 unders and 15 overs in their last 51 as a favorite. KC has seen 10 unders, 1 over and a push in their last 12 games. Sunday's game looks like an under too!
Greg Daraban
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Los Angeles at San Diego
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In the series opener with Rameriz back for the blue the Doders won 6-3 behind Kuroda.Wolf at 6-3 is having a very good season.Geer not yet hitting his best stride at 1-3.Take LA Dodgers
Nelly
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Toronto - over New York
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Roy Halladay has been the most dominant pitcher in the AL this season with a 2.56 ERA, a 1.04 WHIP, and an amazing 6.78:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Halladay has not picked up a win in nearly a month which keeps this line in check but he pitched extremely well in his first start back of the DL despite a loss, allowing just two runs on five hits. Halladay is 4-0 on the road with a 1.88 ERA this season and should deliver another strong outing against New York after allowing just one run in a complete game effort earlier this season. Chien-Ming Wang has been a complete disaster this season and although his last few starts have been encouraging, they only have shown promise relative to the horrid early season outings and have not come close to matching his past form for New York. Wang has failed to finish the sixth inning in any start this season, leaving a lot of room for problems in a very unreliable bullpen. Wang's ERA is still over 10.00 and the Yankees have only won two of his starts this season. New York is struggling offensively, batting only .268 in the last ten games and Toronto has had success in this series. Don't be fooled by the recent win streak and the unusual underdog status for New York, they have little chance against the far superior Jays pitching today.
John Fisher
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
We had a GREAT 18-12 June. Especially given the fact that 6 losses came in last two innings of ball games. We start off with a 1-0 mark for August after GIANTS and LINCECUM keep total under earlier this week. For a pitcher that has a career record of 16-5 against the pinstripes im not really sure why my line of -170 doesn't make sense. Plus add WANGS troubles I see the Jays behind Halladay winning this 5 Star contest.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Under 8.5
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I see a well played fast paced game in this tilt. Look for the Nationals to secure victory and make this a pitching battle between two pitchers under the radar. Lannan and Hanson have beeN lights out!
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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Zake has been overachieving this year. Look for the Marlins to be patient and hit some curve balls over he fence. Miller has looked good but seems to struggle and lose focus at times. The Pirates are a good team to rebound. 3 STAR
Bob Harvey
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Atlanta Braves
There was much hype about Tommy Hanson when he was in the minors. Since his recall his lived up to the hype and much more.
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Hanson hasn’t allowed a run in his past three starts, and he’ll look to remain unbeaten in the big leagues when he takes the hill against the Nationals. The rookie sensation is 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA and he’s beaten all-comers including the Red Sox who he limited to two hits over six shutout innings. Did I mention Hanson was suffering from the flu when he did THAT? The right-hander hasn’t allowed a run in 20 innings a string dating back to June 12th in Baltimore, the site of his first MLB win. I can’t say it enough, this guy is the real deal. One last add on Hanson; He’s the first Braves rookie since 1900 to hold his opponents scoreless in three consecutive starts.
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The Braves have won five straight and look like they’re a a serious contender in the NL East. They’ve got the pitching and their offense has been going gangbusters even without an injured Nate McClouth. Just seven days ago Atlanta was ranked 26th in the Majors in runs per game but have exploded for 30 runs in their past four games. They got the bats going during a sweep of the Phllies and kept them going last night in a wild 9-8 win over Washington.
If there’s anyone on the Nationals staff who can cool down the Bravos it wold be today’s starter John Lannan. The young lefty enters with a 5-5 record and a 3.45 ERA. He’s 2-2 with a 3.30 ERA in five career starts against the Braves, including 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA this season.
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As they showed on Friday night, the Nats are indeed pesky. Whether they can “bug” Hanson much remains to be seen. I’m siding with the hotter pitcher and the hotter team in this D.C. showdown.
Covers' Hot lines: Satuday's best MLB bets
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals (+107, 9)
The White Sox are making their move in the AL Central – and they’re doing it with quality piching.
Chicago has allowed a meager 10 earned runs the past five games and is rapidly closing in on first-place Detroit. The White Sox have played dozens of low-scoring games this year and have an over/under record of 31-47-1 overall and 12-28 at home.
Combine those numbers with Kansas City’s 11-22-2 O/U mark on the road, and this one figures to be a snoozer for the fans hoping to see some early fireworks. Chicago also is 5-4 against the Royals this season, as six of their nine matchups have fallen below the number.
These Sox should leave the Royals hanging out to dry.
Pick: Under 9
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies (-191, 10)
Home or away, the Diamondbacks are incredibly consistent – all they do is lose.
Arizona is just one of two teams in the NL – and one of four in the Majors – to have a losing record both home and on the road. And a trip to Coors Field is not what Arizona needs to turn its season around. The Rockies have the second-best run differential in the NL and are hitting the cover off the ball. Colorado, known for its homer-haven of a field, has used a balance offensive approach this year to score 392 runs entering the weekend, just two behind NL leader Philadelphia.
The two teams split six meetings earlier this year, but the Diamondbacks’ offense has been just as bad as its defense, and this Rockies team is playing much different than the one that started the season poorly.
Pick: Rockies -191
Karl Garrett
St. Louis -110 at CINCINNATI
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G-Man on a 4-1 comp play run the last 5 days.
Early afternoon action from Cincinnati today, and I will back the Cardinals to come through over the Reds once again.
Cincy was rolling along having won 5 of 7 prior to yesterday's setback, and it seems as though they just can't get over the hump against their division rival, as the Cards have now won their last 3 on the season.
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St. Louis will go with less-than-spectacular Brad Thompson who is just 2-3 for the year, but both of those wins come on the road.
Cincy counters with Micah Owings who has been hit-or-miss all season long. Owings is coming off a win, but the start prior he was roughed up pretty good by Toronto.
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St. Louis does have a guy named Albert Pujols in their attack, and that is good enough for me this afternoon.
Take the Cards.
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3♦ ST. LOUIS
Sports Gambling Hotline
Pittsburgh +120 at FLORIDA
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For 4th of July, take the underdog Pirates to come through at Florida once again.
Pittsburgh won last night's series opener by a 7-4 score, as the Pirates improved to a perfect 4-0 versus the Marlins this year.
Florida starter Andrew Miller absorbed one of those losses, as Pittsburgh scored 4 off of him in his 5 innings of work back in April, and we like the Bucs to get to him once again tonight.
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Pirates starter Zach Duke has pitched well his last 3 trips to the mound, allowing 3 runs or less in all 3 of those starts, but has a 1-2 mark to show for it.
Look for the Pittsburgh bats to give Duke some support in this game, and for Pittsburgh to move their season series mark to 5-0 against the Fish.
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Play on Pittsburgh.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Dominic Fazzini
Seattle at BOSTON
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Garrett Olson has had to replace the injured Erik Bedard in the Mariners’ rotation, and he’s done an admirable job, winning three of his last four starts. Olson (3-2, 4.81 ERA) allowed two runs on four hits in five innings Sunday to beat the Dodgers in his last outing.
The left-hander now will try to get it done today at Fenway Park, a place that has not been kind to him. Olson is 0-3 with an 8.82 ERA in three appearances in Boston. And he is 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA overall in seven career starts against the Red Sox.
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Brad Penny (6-3, 4.79) takes the mound for Boston. The veteran right-hander has grown stronger throughout the season, and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in seven of his past eight starts, and nine of the last 11.
Penny, who had a 3.18 ERA in June, gave up two runs on six hits in six innings Sunday against Atlanta in his last start.
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I’m betting Penny will have another quality outing today against Seattle, and that Boston, which is 18-9 against southpaws, creates some fireworks of its own against Olson. Take the Red Sox on the run line.
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3♦ BOSTON -1 1/2 runs