Bobby Maxwell
Toronto at N.Y. YANKEES +115
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How good was Friday's FREE winner with the Mariners getting it done in Boston against the Red Sox? Tonight, I'm handing you another comp winner with the Yankees catching plus-money at home to the Blue Jays.
I've got a chance to play the Yankees at home catching plus-money on Independence Day? Hell yes I'm going with New York. I don't care if the Blue Jays have ace Roy Halladay (10-2, 2.56 ERA) on the mound.
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New York is on some nice winning runs lately, including 8-1 overall, 6-0 against right-handers, 6-1 against winning teams and 17-8 in the Bronx. The Yankees got the 4-2 win over the Blue Jays on Friday and they'll get it done again today. Toronto is on slides of 1-5 overall, 1-4 against winning teams, 0-4 on Saturdays and 3-11 against A.L. East squads.
New York has won three of four against Toronto this season and the Yanks have Chien-Ming Wang (1-6, 10.06) on the hill who amazingly got his first win of the season on Sunday, giving up two runs on four hits in 5.2 innings of a 4-2 win over the Mets. He is 4-2 lifetime against the Blue Jays, and the Yankees are on runs of 39-16 when he pitches at home and 48-23 in his last 71 starts overall.
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I'm going with the most American of teams playing on this Independence Day as they host a squad based out of Canada. This all sets up perfect. Play the Yankees!
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2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
DAVE COKIN
TORONTO BLUE JAYS / NEW YORK YANKEES
Take TORONTO BLUE JAYS
The Yankees are playing very good ball right now, so it sure isn't easy to lay a price against them. But Chien-Ming Wang remains the weak link on the staff, and even in a respectable last outing he had little sink on his pitches. I think there's a good chance he gets knocked around by the Blue Jays. With Roy Halladay on the hill for Toronto, the road favorite is the opinion in this holiday hookup.
JIM FEIST
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TAMPA BAY RAYS / TEXAS RANGERS
Take OVER
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Texas is an offensive park and two pitchers take the mound here with "issues." Tampa Bay is tops in baseball in runs scored, while Texas is 10th. Tampa Bay lefty David Price is a top talent, but young and raw, walking 25 in 36 innings, a terrible ratio. He has a 5.60 ERA his last three starts. Texas lefty Derek Holland simply isn't that good, at 1-5 with a 6.20 ERA. Look for an offensive show in Arlington, play the Rays/Rangers Over the total.
Matt Rivers
For Saturday take the Giants minus 1 1/2 runs.
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Russ Ortiz has actually somehow been pretty good this season but when compared to the reigning Cy Young award winner in Tim Lincecum this pitching matchup is an absolute joke and a must play on the home Giants laying that extra run.
San Francisco is not a great offense, save Friday's performance, and may not turn up a lot of crooked numbers today. Houston is in fact the superior lineup with more potential for long balls with guys like Berkman, Lee, Tejada and Pence but Lincecum isn't called "The Freak" for nothing. This kid is flat out unreal and a guy that has been on complete fire of late. In that last start he completely embarassed Albert Pujols and the Cardinals and back home here we may see a repeat of that.
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San Francisco has been having more success this season than some thought, including myself and in such a lopsided matchup on the bump I will back them here laying that run and a half. I will keep my fingers crossed hoping that we can plate some runs because the Giants offense certainly has some issues at times but in the end Lincecum is too good to not take a shot on here in this spot against the old man Ortiz.
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2♦ Giants -1 1/2 runs
Jake Timlin
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Winners of five in a row, I expect for the Braves to make is six straight today.
Holding on for the win last night I look for the Braves to have much easier time tonight all thanks to the pitching of Tommy Hanson. For Hanson at 4-0 with a 2.48 ERA in five starts this year the righty has more than lived up to the hype and the reason long time legend Glavine was cut loose.
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Meanwhile, for the Nationals having lost 9 of their last 11 games they suck once again and they will continue to suck even with Lannan pitching.
No doubt about it Atlanta is the better team and with the way they are playing right now I don’t see them losing with Hanson on the mound.
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Go with the Braves as they make it six in a row.
2♦ Atlanta Braves
Tony Weston
Today's Selection
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The A's were absolutely nowhere to be found and cost us our Comp Play winner # 5 in a row. That's fine because we've still won 4 of our last 5 and we're making it 5 of 6 today.
We're coming at it with a strong Run Line winner on the Blue Jays over the Yankees.
You look at it and the dominance Roy Halladay has over the New York Yankees is utterly ridiculous.
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Lifetime, in 31 career starts against the Yankees he’s 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA. The Blue Jays are also 10-4 in Halladay’s last 14 road starts against the Yankees and most impressively, Toronto has won 21 of his last 28 starts against New York.
Going back to last year, the Blue Jays are on a 6-game winning streak against the Yankees with Halladay on the mound. But in that stretch not only is Toronto winning, it’s blowing out New York.
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In that 6-game stretch the Jays have outscored the Yankees, on average, 7.8-1.8.
When they played earlier this year, in Halladay’s only appearance against New York this season, Toronto cruised to a 5-1 victory as Halladay gave up only one earned run in a complete game victory.
Halladay will continue his dominance as he shuts down the Yankees once again. Take Halladay and the Blue Jays on the Run Line in this one today.
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3♦ BLUE JAYS -1.5
LT Profits
Boston Red Sox -1.5
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The Seattle Mariners nipped the Boston Red Sox 7-6 in extra innings last night, but we look for the Red Sox to get a measure of revenge this afternoon.
Even with that defeat last night, Boston is still 25-11 at home this season while outscoring the opposition by an amazing +1.75 runs per game, making the Run Line always worth a peek when they play at Fenway Park. Their starter Brad Penny has now allowed three runs or less in four straight starts and seven of his last eight, and he has tossed 11 scoreless innings while allowing only nine hits in his last two starts here at home.
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Meanwhile, Garrett Olson has been as erratic in his first year with the Mariners as he was with the Baltimore Orioles, as he has a lofty 6.06 ERA over his last three starts. Olson has never fared well vs. Boston either, as he has yet to post a Quality Start in seven career starts against them, all of which have come in the last two years. He has a horrible 7.71 ERA in those outings, a figure that jumps to a whopping 8.82 in three starts at Fenway.
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Finally, Boston has pummeled left-handed pitchers over the last 10 games to the tune of a .312 team average, which makes a multiple-run win even more likely in this spot.
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Pick: Red Sox -1.5
Matt Fargo
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Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Washington Nationals
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This could very well be the matchup that ends Washingtons four-game losing streak and Atlantas four-game winning streak. We all know the Nationals are the worst team in baseball but over 27 percent of their wins have come when John Lannan is on the hill. He put together another quality start in his last outing which was his fifth straight. Tommy Hanson has been superb for the Braves and has yet to lose and that is where the value comes into play. The Braves are just 10-24 in their last 34 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and they are only 2-8 in the last 10 meetings in Washington.
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3* Washington Nationals
Jr Tips
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TAMPA BAY vs. TEXAS
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Texas(43-35) looks for their fourth straight win agaist Tampa Bay (44-37). The Rangers moved back into a tie for first place in the AL West after winning 3-1 on Friday. The Rays have lost two straight as their high-powered offense managed a season-low three hits Friday. Tampa Bay starts rookie David Price (2-2, 3.93 ERA) who looks for his first consecutive win. He yielded one run and two hits over 6 1/3 innings Sunday in a 5-2 victory over Florida. The left-hander issued five walks to bring his season total to 25 over 36 2/3 innings. For Tampa, Derek Holland (1-5, 6.20) will make his seventh major league start as he fell to 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA in his first six games after giving up season highs of seven runs and 13 hits over 5 2/3 innings last Saturday in a 7-3 loss to San Diego.The left-hander has posted an 8.62 ERA and failed to pitch past the sixth inning in his three home starts this year. He has never faced Tampa Bay. With a Rookie on the mound who has never won back to back games and a starter who hasn"t pitched past the 6th inning all year and giving up over 8 runs at home, there will be alot a runs on the board as the last team that scores will probaly win.
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TAKE OVER 10 1/2
The Spread
Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, 1:05PM ET
Toronto is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
Toronto is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
NY Yankees are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Toronto
NY Yankees are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Toronto
Pick: NY Yankees
Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Royals, 1:10PM ET
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing Kansas City
Chi White Sox are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Pick: Chicago
St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, 1:10PM ET
St. Louis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: St. Louis
Drew Gordon
Pittsburgh at FLORIDA -135
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I'm now on a 21-10 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the Rockies over the D-Backs 5-0 Friday! For tonight's complimentary play, we're looking at the Pittsburgh/Florida match-up.
At first glance, its tempting to back southpaw Zack Duke, at this price, in this spot, but that would be a mistake. In this battle of southpaws, despite the fact Duke has the better numbers overall, the Marlins Andrew Miller has been very effective at home, and it'll show tonight...
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Speaking of Miller, he's 2-0 with a solid 3.11 ERA at Land Shark Stadium this season, including an impressive effort against Baltimore in his last home start, allowing 1 run on just 1 hit over 7 innings June 23rd! The home start previous to that one was a quality effort against the Cardinals offense, so don't tell me he can't handle the Pirates in this one!
Not only are the Fish 11-5 against lefty starters at home, they're 9-3 against them under the lights! Marlins hit lefties well especially well at Land Shark, averaging a hearty 5.6 runs per game, batting .270, in that spot this season. Compare that to a Pirates team that averages 4.2 runs per game, batting .259 against lefties on the road, and you've got all the makings of a mismatch.
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Bottom line, while there's no questioning Duke's effectiveness this season, Miller has been just as good when pitching in front of the home fans. Factor in a strong offensive edge, and a slight, but solid bullpen edge, and the only play here is the Fish. Despite yesterday's loss, let's not forget the Marlins are 8-1 in their last 9 home games AND 13-3 in their last 16 as a favorite! In the end, look for the Marlins to take care of business in this one!
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Take Florida behind Miller over Pittsburgh and Duke in this MLB match up.
2♦ FLORIDA
Michael Cannon
Toronto -120 at NY YANKEES
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A nice 5♦ free winner on the Braves last night!
Let’s make it two free winners in a row with the Blue Jays this afternoon over the Yankees.
Roy Halladay gets the start today and the Toronto ace has had great success against the Yankees in his career. The right-hander has won six straight against the Pinstripers and is 16-5 with a 2.79 ERA in 33 lifetime appearances against them.
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Halladay s 10-2 with a 2.56 ERA on the year and has a 1.91 ERA and three complete games in winning his last six starts against New York.
The Yankees will counter with Chien-Ming Wang, who is 1-6 with a 10.06 ERA on the year. The right-hander has pitched better in his last three outings, but still hasn’t regained the stamina or form to match Halladay pitch-for-pitch today.
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Take the Blue Jays as they grab the road win.
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3♦ TORONTO
Tom Freese
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St Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction: Over
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St. Louis is 7-3-1 OVER their Last 11 games as road underdogs and they are 35-17-4 OVER their last 56 games vs. righty starters. Starter Brad Thompson has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Cardinals are 9-3 OVER their last 12 meetings with the Reds. Cincinnati starter Micah Owings has more walks than strikeouts in his last 3 starts. The Reds are 12-5 OVER their last 17 Games vs. winning teams. The Reds are 8-2 OVER on Saturday. PLAY ON 'OVER' (Owings vs. Thompson)
We Cover Spreads
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Fans hoping to see fireworks today in KC will have to wait until after the White Sox and Royals finish their game. Play the Under in Kansas City on Saturday afternoon.
Don't expect to see much action in the White Sox and Royals meeting today. Gavin Floyd has been stellar for the Pale Hose with eight quality starts in a row. Despite a high 5.80 road ERA this season, he has allowed just four earned runs in his last three starts on the highway.
In the past two series between the two teams at Kansas City; the Royals have scored just 10 earned runs in five games. They have scored just one run the past two games. That's a good sign for Floyd to continue his success of late of the road. The Royals haven't scored over four runs in a game since June 21 against St. Louis.
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Luke Hochevar has been really good at home for the Royals. He owns a 3.47 ERA in KC, giving up just nine earned runs in 23.1 innings of work. He is coming off his best start of the season against the Twins when he pitched seven shutout innings and gave up only two hits. In his last start against the White Sox, Hochevar allowed just three earned runs in seven innings last August.
The Under has cashed a ticket in nine of the last 12 meetings between the two. This should be a low scoring affair in Kauffman Stadium today and we'll play the Under.
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Pick: White Sox-Royals Under 8½
BIG AL
It's only fitting on July 4th for the big paleface in Washington to stick it to the Red Man. Put your wampum on the Nationals today against the Atlanta Braves.
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Our MLB selection for the Fourth of July is on the Washington Nationals at home in the nation's capital over the Atlanta Braves.
In his last start, Tommy Hanson overcame the flu and led the Braves to a 2-1 victory over the Red Sox. That play was a nice winner for our interleague Game of the Year. But we are going to go against Hanson and the Braves here, and take Nationals lefty John Lannan.
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The Braves are a poor 47-71 their last 118 on the road, including 14-22 as a road favorite the last two years. There's no doubt that Hanson is a terrific young pitcher, but Lannan is 2-0 at home in his eight home starts this year, with a solid 2.03 ERA and 1.18 WHIP.
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The Nats are also 14-8 their last 22 at home vs. the Braves. Take the home dog on this July 4th holiday.
Pick: Nationals +113