Joe Gavazzi
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers
Never easy to go against Bumgarner who is on a positive run and always solid at home. In fact, recently Bumgarner is 4-1 with a 2.18 ERA. In his last 3 home starts, Bumgarner is 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA. Yet the numbers for Fife are comparable with a solid 2.83 ERA for the season, 1.21 WHIP and 35/11 KBB. In his last 3 starts, those numbers accrue to 2-0, 1.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. One area in which these teams are not comparable is in their recent overall record. The defending Champs enter on negative slides of 11-24, 1-10 scoring 28 total runs in their last 14 games. The reborn Dodgers are recently 11-2 averaging 5.5 runs per game with 13 or more hits in each of their last 5 games. At this huge price, we must make LA your Big Dog Play of the Day!
Will Rogers
Chicago vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Under
I'm expecting a good old fashioned pitcher's duel Saturday night when Chris Sale and the White Sox take on Matt Moore and the Rays. As a result, this free play is on the Under.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Sale - Despite having a 2.79 ERA in 15 starts, Sale is only 5-7. As you can then guess, he hasn't gotten a ton of run support and that's led to a lot of Under tickets cashing. In fact, the Under is 10-3-2 in all Sale starts and that includes his team getting shutout in his most recent start, a 4-0 loss to the Indians. Sale struck out 10 batters in the no-decision, allowing just three runs in eight innings. He struck out 13 the start before that, again allowing just three runs in eight innings. Going back two seasons, the Under is now 27-15 in all Sale starts, including 15-5 on the road when the number is 7 to 8.5. Sale faced Tampa Bay once already this season and gave up only two runs in seven innings.
2. Moore - He should have an even easier time with a White Sox offense that ranks near the bottom of MLB in most significant categories. Chicago is just 7-12 vs. lefties this year, averaging only 3.6 runs per game. Moore just got done throwing seven scoreless innings in his last start, allowing only two hits to the Houston Astros. His ERA over his last three starts, all quality, is 1.86. Earlier this year, Moore went six innings against the White Sox, allowed just one run on three hits, and struck out nine.
3. X-Factor - Prior to yesterday, the White Sox had gone Under in five consecutive games.
Jesse Schule
Miami vs. St. Louis
Pick: Under
The Cardinals host Miami Saturday Afternoon in Game 2 of this series after taking the opener by a score of 4-1 yesterday. We are expecting to see another low scoring affair this afternoon, as seven of the last eight games at Busch Stadium have seen fewer than eight runs scored.
Nate Eovaldi will toe the rubber for the visitors, and he's been pretty solid since getting the call up. Eovaldi (1-0, 2.00 ERA) tossed six scoreless innings allowing just four hits in a 6-2 win over the Padres his last time out. In three starts in the big leagues he's held opponents to two runs or less, and a maximum of four hits.
He's only faced the Cardinals once previously, allowing one run on five hits over five innings in a no decision at Busch Stadium.
The Cardinals hand the ball to 25 year old Joe Kelly, who's still in pursuit of his first victory of the season. Kelly (0-3, 3.86 ERA) allowed one run on five hits over 5 1/3 innings against Oakland his last time out. He's only had one start prior to today's game, but he's been giving the Cardinals solid innings out of the bullpen all season.
The Marlins have seen him twice this year in a couple of brief appearances, recording a hit and no runs in 1 2/3 innings.
The total is sitting pretty high here for a matinee in the National League, and given what we have seen from the two starters, it doesn't look like runs will be easy to come by.
Bryan Power
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Pick: Detroit
The Indians took a very bad 7-0 loss to the first place Tigers last night and it wasn't just that they were shutout, but the psychological effect of being humbled so badly in front of the first sellout crowd at Progessive Field s/ Opening Day (w/ ace Justin Masterson pitching!) could potentially have some long-standing effects. I made the mistake of playing the Indians yesterday. Not today...
The Tigers continue to have the Indians number in 2013, winning seven of nine head to head matchups. Speaking of having Cleveland's number, how about Anibal Sanchez, who gets the start for Detroit tonight? In four starts last year, Sanchez posted a 1.75 ERA against the Tribe. He comes in here with a 2.75 ERA in 13 starts this season. The Tigers have taken six in a row from the Indians, outscoring them 40-18 in the process. Really, the long-term prognosis for Cleveland staying in a pennant race with Detroit is not good.
While the Tigers have won four in a row overall, the Indians have dropped three straight. Don't look for the home team to reverse things behind Carlos Carrasco, who has an 8.17 ERA in five starts. He was fortunate enough to get bailed out in his last start despite allowing six runs to a terrible White Sox offense. He was not as fortunate when he faced Detroit earlier this year, again surrendering six runs (on 10 hits) in just four innings of work. The Tribe lost that game 6-4, they'll lose again tonight.
Jeff Alexander
Cincinnati Reds -1½
It's hard not to like the Reds at home where they are 29-14 in their last 43. It's especially hard not to like them with Latos on the mound. The Reds are 31-12 in the righty's last 43 starts overall and 20-6 in his last 26 home starts. The Mariners are a lousy 37-96 in their last 133 road games as an underdog of +151 to +200. I just don't see Latos losing the pitching battle to Bonderman. Reds run line.
Game Plan
Detroit vs. Cleveland
Play: Over 9
The Tigers are in great hitting form as they are avg 5.4-rpg over their last seven games. The Indians are averaging 6.7-rpg over their last seven games and that includes being shut out last night.
Annibel Sanchez has a 4.06 ERA on the road. Carlos Carrasco has a 8.17 ERA in 5 starts this season. Over is 6-0 in Sanchez's last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Over is 7-1 in Carrasco's last 8 starts with 7 or more days of rest. Over is 6-1 in Carrasco's last 7 starts a home underdog of +110 to +150.
Detroit is 26-6 OVER after 7 or more consecutive road games over the last 3 seasons. Cleveland is 47-22 OVER after 3 consecutive game versus a division rival over the last 2 seasons. Take the over today.
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs +110
The Chicago Cubs are showing solid value as a home underdog to the Pittsburgh Pirates Saturday. I believe they have the edge on the mound, therefore they will bounce back from a Game 1 loss.
Edwin Jackson is 5-2 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.211 WHIP in nine career starts against Pittsburgh. he allowed one earned run and five base runners over 7 innings of a 4-1 home victory over the Pirates on June 9th.
Charlie Morton is 2-3 with a 5.77 ERA and 1.652 WHIP in six career starts against Chicago. It's clear by the head-to-head numbers that the Cubs are the play in this one.
The Pirates are 0-7 in Morton's last 7 starts following an outing of less than 4 innings in his last appearance. Pittsburgh is 3-14 in Morton's last 17 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games following a loss. Bet Chicago Saturday.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -135
The White Sox are just 15-29 on the road this season, including 2-9 in these matchups when going against a left-handed starter. They are hitting only .243 and scoring 3.6 runs per game off southpaw starters, which means they'll have a tough time hitting Matt Moore, who's 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Rays are 15-4 in Moore's last 19 starts overall, 9-1 in his last 10 starts as a favorite of -150 or less and 10-1 in his last 11 starts versus teams that strike out 7 times or more per game. Chicago's Chris Sale has suffered from poor run support. In addition, he hasn't been in top form lately, going 0-2 with a 4.29 ERA over his last 3 starts. The White Sox are 1-5 in Sale's last 6 starts and 4-9 in his last 13 road starts. Take Tampa Bay.
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies on the run line.
Arizona has had an interesting season, going from some dominant stretches of play to losing eight of nine and now recently back on a three-game winning streak... thanks to last night's dominating hitting and pitching efforts in a 5-0 blanking of the Rockies.
Lefty Wade Miley gets the start for the Snakes tonight and is 4-0 all-time with a 3.00 ERA in six starts against the Rockies.
His overall season numbers don't look great (4-7, 4.29 ERA) but his ERA over his last five starts is still a sizzling 2.76
Drew Pomeranz (0-1, 8.31) counters for the Rockies after being called up from the minors just a few weeks ago. He allowed four runs on seven hits including four walks in less than five innings of work in a 5-2 debut loss against San Francisco last weekend.
He's also 0-1 with an 8.03 ERA in three career starts vs. Arizona and I don't see any reason his overall numbers or numbers against the D'Backs will get any better.
Take the Snakes as your free run line play of the day.
2♦ ARIZONA -1.5
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Under on the Orioles-Yankees early afternoon affair.
Always like to look to the low when I get a pair of teams playing a day game following a night game, and that happens to be the scenario this Saturday afternoon in the Bronx.
Andy Pettitte has had his issues on the hill of late, as the veteran southpaw has allowed 16 runs in just under 25 innings of work his last 4 trips to the bump, but I expect him to finally snap out of his funk and go out there and match pitches with Chris Tillman in a low-scoring affair.
Tillman has allowed 3 runs or less in 6 in a row, and 8 of his last 9 starts overall. Included is 6 inning 2 run effort in a win over New York his last time to the mound.
With last night's Under, these teams are now on an 11-2-1 the last 14 series meetings, and the Under for Baltimore is 20-7-1 in their last 28 games overall.
Pitching to dominate on Saturday afternoon. Baltimore-New York to hold Under the total.
4♦ BALTIMORE-N.Y. YANKEES UNDER
Brad Wilton
Your comp play for Saturday is the Pirates over the Cubs.
Last start Edwin Jackson went out and won at Seattle. Jackson also owns a June 9th win over the same Pittsburgh team that he is facing today, but that was Jackson's lone win at Wrigley Field this season. Jackson is just 1-5 at home this year with a 6.69 ERA.
Charlie Morton counters for a Pittsburgh team that has won 11 of their last 13 games, and Morton has played an important role in the Bucs recent surge, going 1-0 over is last 3 starts with a 2.08 ERA and the Pirates winning all 3 of those starts.
Pittsburgh has won 7 of the 9 series meetings this year versus Chicago, and I will take them again on Saturday to make it 8 of 10 series wins.
Go with the Pirates.
3♦ PITTSBURGH
Brett Atkins
My complimentary play is on the Snakes of Phoenix, as I think the Rockies are in big trouble tonight in late action, with the National League-leading Diamondbacks catching fire now that they're back at home. And trust me, for a team like the Rockies, it has to be hard to be playing in the temperatures that have swelled the past two weeks in the Phoenix-area.
I'm not going to list either Drew Pomeranz or Wade Miley, as this is all about momentum and site of action.
Nevertheless, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention how successful Miley has been against the Rockies, going 4-0 with a 2.79 ERA in six career starts against them. He is one of just two pitchers to have at least four wins against the Rockies and not a single loss since 2011.
But again, the listed pitchers don't matter since the D'Backs have won three straight and the Rockies as a whole have been hitting terribly this month, with a .232 batting average in July.
Take the Snakes at Chase Field in this one.
5♦ ARIZONA
Chris Jordan
I love the Yankees to get it done, especially after how they won last night. The Orioles were cruising to a 2-1 victory when the wheels came off in the ninth inning, and I don't think the O's will recover.
The Yankees have now won five in a row, and the fact is, everything is going their way right now. And make note, the Bombers are out to avenge last weekend's three-game series sweep to these Orioles in Baltimore.
With the series taking place on 161st Street set in the Bronx after the Yankees' bats came alive in their series with the Minnesota Twins, I think Baltimore is in big trouble.
The Bombers plated 29 runs during their four-game sweep of the reeling Twins, and then they came home riding the momentum of a four-game win streak.
Last night the Yankees matched their season-high win streak of five tonight, and now they get a Baltimore team that has lost two straight days in walk-off fashion.
Take the home team in this one, and be sure to come back after the first pitch of this game, as I'll have a free pick in the title match of tonight's UFC card in this very space!
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Scott Delaney
There was no overnight line on the Phillies/Braves game, but I can tell you this should provide great value by playing the home team in this 7:15 p.m. eastern first pitch. The Braves haven't been up to snuff of late, and the Phillies appear ready to pounce. I won't bother listing pitchers, cause it's more about going against the slumping the Braves. I'll talk about the pitchers scheduled to start, but make not bones about it, I like the Phillies regardless of who goes for Atlanta - I don't care if Greg Maddux was back on the hill.
It's not Maddux, however, it's veteran Timmy Hudson who is pressed into action, and the right-hander hasn't won a game since May 5. He is 3-3 in nine career starts in Philadelphia, where the Phils have won 8 of 11.
Philadelphia is on additional winning streaks of 6-2 against righties, 7-3 in intradivision play and 10-3 when Kyle Kendrick toes the slab against N.L. East foes.
Too much momentum working against the Braves in this one, I'll play the home team, while looking for a line of +100 or +105 .
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Andrew Lange
Detroit at Cleveland
Play: Cleveland
Detroit's Anibal Sanchez was having an incredible season before a shoulder issues forced him onto the DL a few weeks back. Since joining the Tigers, he's managed to stay healthy but it is important to note that he does have a history of arm ailments including shoulder surgery. And he's been worked pretty hard this season with six starts of 113 pitches or more including 130 back in late May. In his last start before being placed on the DL, Sanchez's velocity was way down – how many times have we seen a pitcher placed on the DL and then return only to suffer another setback? To me, Sanchez is being priced today as if he was dialed in and 100% healthy which I don't think is the case. At home against Houston or Kansas City would be a more ideal situation compared to on the road vs. Cleveland's left-handed heavy lineup. I'm of the thinking that Carlos Carrasco will at some point figure things out. He's got good stuff but doesn't always know where it is going. There is really nothing to like about his numbers other than his fastball velocity (94-95 mph). He was embarrassed last time out (5.2 IP, 6 ERs) and was sent down. Now he gets another chance to stick in a rotation that desperately needs stability. I don’t expect Carrasco to completely shut down the Tigers but at this price and a questionable Sanchez, I'm willing to step in on the home underdog.