Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday July, 7

SPORTS WAGERS

Chael Sonnen +241 over Anderson Silva

This middleweight title fight is a rematch that has been two years in the making. The first time around Sonnen took down Silva at will and kept him on his back for over four rounds and looked to be cruising to a decision victory over the heavily favored Silva until Sonnen had a cranial cramp of Colonel George Custer like proportions and gave up a fight ending triangle choke with less than two minutes remaining in the fight. So here we are two years later and Sonnen is better than a 2 to 1 dog against a guy that he came so close to defeating. How do we not bet this? To be sure, it is fair to think that Chael caught lightning in a bottle the first time and got Anderson on an off night when he was also rumored to be battling a rib injury. Silva is undoubtedly the best MMA fighter of all time. Bar none. His six-year reign of terror in the UFC includes a current 14-fight winning streak with 12 finishes and nine straight title defenses. His striking is equal parts graceful and brutal and has provided some of the most memorable finishes in UFC history. He is in the twilight of his career and when he chooses to retire his place in history is assured. However, Sonnen is a bad style match-up for him. Despite what you might have seen of Chael spouting off on TV making fun of Anderson and the whole country of Brazil, Chael is no fool. He has worked on shoring up his BJJ and his submission victory over Brian Stann nine months ago is proof of that. The only fights that Anderson has ever lost rounds in have been against opponents that were primarily wrestlers or grapplers. In victories over Travis Lutter and Dan Henderson he convincingly lost the first round in both those fights before storming back to finish both guys in the second round. This is a very dangerous fight for Sonnen. Every round starts standing so Anderson will have a chance in every round to land that one strike that can change the momentum. Officially, we're calling Sonnen by decision with an outside chance of landing a submission. Play: Chael Sonnen +241 (Risking 2 units).

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Brewers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros

Wandy Rodriguez and the Astros host Zack Greinke and the Brewers in Game Two of this three games series Saturday afternoon in Houston. Rodriguez enter the fray knowing he is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last five home team start sin this series. On the flip side, Greinke's road ERA (4.03) is more than two runs per game worse than his home ERA (1.89). With that, look for the Astros to improve on their league best 11-1 record on Saturdays this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.

Scott Spreitzer

Calgary Stampeders at Toronto Argonauts
Prediction: Calgary Stampeders

We jumped on road dog Hamilton last night and got the win, but today I'll lay road points for the first time this CFL season. While you don't want to put too much stock in one game no matter what sport you're betting, the way the Stamps dismantled Montreal last week should make anyone stand up and take note. Calgary whipped the Als 38-10, garnering 30 first downs while allowing only 11. Calgary outgained Montreal 465-213, including 127-39 on the ground. That's the same Montreal squad that just rolled up 445 yards passing and 41 points in last night's win over Winnipeg. Calgary QB Drew Tate completed 28 of 38 passes in week one for 338 yards and a TD (2 picks). Tate and his arsenal will attack an inexperienced Toronto secondary. Four of the Argos' top five DBs went into last week with zero CFL experience. The Argos played well against Edmonton, but face a more talented and cohesive offense this week. Meanwhile, the Toronto offense is going to take a couple of games to get on the same page. Former Edmonton QB Ricky Ray was under constant pressure last week playing behind a questionable offensive line that left a lot to be desired. And the Argos comitted 18 penalties in week one - which shows they still have work to do to find a chemistry among the newcomers. It also should be noted that Calgary HC & GM John Hufnagel was none too pleased when DC Chris Jones bolted to Toronto to join Scott Milanovich's staff. You can bet if Hufnagel gets the opportunity, he'll look to stick it to the Argo defense. Toronto has struggled at home covering just 8 of their last 27 July home games and they're on a 4-9 ATS home slide in their last 13 overall. Meanwhile, the Stamps know how to keep the momentum going, currently on a 9-2 ATS road run following a home win by at least 17 points. I'm recommending a play on Calgary minus the points on Saturday afternoon.

Ray Monohan

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5

Nationals -1.5 +110 MLB closes-out the first half of its regular season this weekend with its annual All-Star break slated for next week. The Rockies take on the Nats on Saturday. Colorado will send Jeff Francis to the mound. Gio Gonzalez is scheduled to get the start for Washington on Saturday. The Rockies are just 7-20 in its last 27 games and 3-8 in their last 11 road games. Washington is 20-8 in their last 28 home games. Nationals are 6-0 in Gonzalezs last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Nationals are 6-1 in Gonzalezs last 7 starts with 5 days of rest.

Carolina Sports

Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

Doug Fister is clearly not the same pitcher he was last year when Detroit traded for home and a lot has to do with him not being healthy. This is a big game for him and Detroit as they want to gain some momentum for the 2nd half of the season and contend for a playoff spot. Detroit falls into a nice 207-103 system of ours that we really like in this one. The price is too high for us to make it as an official star-rated play but we like as a free pick as KC has not been playing well lately as they are 2-6 their last 8 and the Tigers have some positive momentum as they are 5-2 their last 7. Take Detroit.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -1.5

Washington fits a solid system that plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss at -200 or higher that scored 2 or less runs and had no more than 1 error, vs an opponent off a road dog win at +140 or higher that scored 5 or more runs, and also had no more than 1 error. These home teams have won 24 of 27 times. Washington has won 3 of 4 as a home favorite in this range and 4 of the last 6 at home vs leftys. Colorado is 0-5 in game 2 of a road series off a win losing by an average 6 runs per game. They have lost 19 of 27 day games and 11 of 13 on Saturday. This season they have lost 6 of 8 on the road vs leftys and are 0-7 as a road dog of 200 or higher. Francis is on the mound for the Rockies and he has a 5.16 era this season. G. Gonzalez goes for the Nationals and he has won 3 of his last 4 home July starts and has a fine 2.42 home era this season. Look for Washington to win by more than a run.

David Chan

Reds @ Padres
PICK: Under

The Reds' (45-38) Homer Bailey (6-6, 4.24 ERA) is set to square off against the Padres' (34-51) Clayton Richard (6-8, 3.64 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Bailey gave up two runs and five hits while striking out seven over eight frames in his team's 8-2 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Monday. Bailey has been particularly effective on the road, going 4-0 with a tiny 1.89 ERA thus far. He's going to have to be sharp today as well, as his team continues to sputter offensively; yesterday's 6-0 victory was the first time Cincinnati had scored more than one run in its last four games.

Richard has been phenomenal of late, going 4-1 with a minuscule 1.70 ERA over his last five outings, yielding two runs or fewer in seven of his last ten.

We have two hot hurlers squaring off against a couple of struggling offenses; you may want to consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Jesse Schule

Yankees @ Red Sox
PICK: Over 1st Half

It was a slugfest in Boston yesterday, with the Bronx Bombers coming out on top by a score of 10-8. We can likely expect another high scoring affair in Boston today, as the Red Sox have seen the total go over in five of their last six games in Boston.

The Yankees will give Freddy Garcia the start in today's first game of a double-header. Garcia gave up a pair of solo home runs in his first start of the season his last time out. He has been solid out of the bullpen prior to that, but today he is facing a red hot Red Sox lineup in Boston. The 36 year old Garcia is likely to get roughed up a little early here today.

The Red Sox will counter with Franklin Morales in the opening game at Boston today. Morales (1-1, 2.51) was good in his last two starts, allowing just two runs on 10 hits over 13 innings. One of those starts was in Seattle however, and an outing against the struggling Mariners in their pitcher friendly park is nothing in comparison to facing the Yankees in Fenway. I don't expect Morales to fare as well today, especially early in the ballgame.

Robinson Cano will be looking to tie Reggie Jackson today, by driving in a run in his tenth straight game.

This one is going to be a barn burner, and we should see plenty of runs crossing the plate in the early innings.

Dave Price

Dodgers +148

The Dodgers have struggled a bit of late thanks to some unfortunate injuries, but luckily they are running into a team that has gone cold as of late. LA has won three of their last four games, including one over the D-backs, while Arizona has lost six of their last seven. Neither starter here has been particularly effective as of late, however, LA's Chad Billingsley has shown flashes of brilliance this year and hasn't give up more than three runs in his last two starts. I'm on the Dodgers tonight.

Jimmy Boyd

Padres -105

Great price here on a home team with one of their most effective starters on the mound. Lefty Clayton Richard has been rock-solid for the Padres this season, particularly at home where he has a 2.91 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over six starts. He's also been red-hot recently, winning two of his last three starts while posting a 2.42 ERA and 0.895 WHIP.

Richard's counterpart for the Reds will be Homer Bailey. Bailey has put up some decent numbers on the road on the whole this season, but he's just 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in his three most recent starts.

Now, the San Diego offense is one of the worst in the NL, and we know this, but keep in mind that the Reds don't hit very well on the road, nor against left-handed starters. Take the Padres.

Dave Cokin

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Ricky Romero is not sharp at all for the Blue Jays. Gavin Floyd can get ripped to shreds when he's off, but he's been more on lately. I'll look for the White Sox to score this win.

Jim Feist

Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Atlanta Braves

The Braves have dropped off in the NL East as they now are in third place behind the Nationals and Mets. Still, the Braves are four games over .500 and hope to make up some ground this weekend against the Phillies. Philadelphia looked good on paper at one time, but not really on the field. They are mired in last place in the division and have won only three of their last 10 games. Tommy Hanson will start for the Braves. Hanson lost his last start, the first loss for him since he was 4-0 in June with a 3.13 ERA. Prior to his last start, Hanson had allowed just seven total earned runs over 26 2/3 innings of work. Joe Blanton has been the most consistent starter for Philly, still it has resulted in just a 7-7 record and 4.85 ERA. Blanton has put together a few good starts for the Phillies, but still, he's allowed five earned runs or more in four of his last seven starts. The Braves need to beat a team like Philly if they hope to close some ground on Washington. Take the Braves.

SPORTS WAGERS

Minnesota +190 over TEXAS

The Rangers are slumping with five losses in a row. Over that span they’ve scored nine times. Throw in the big price tag on the Twins, plus the struggles of Derek Holland and there’s enough influences here to warrant a wager. Holland has been whacked in four of his past eight starts in which he’s allowed five runs or more. At home, he’s 2-3 with a 6.69 ERA. Additionally, the Twinkies own the league’s best OPS (.801) against southpaws. Sam Deduno last appeared in the majors early in ’11 with the Padres and he’s pitched a total of 5.2 innings. He also pitched briefly with Colorado in ’10. He once was a solid prospect with the Rockies before suffering from a variety of elbow and shoulder injuries. Deduno finally appears to be healthy and when healthy, he has good, quality stuff. He owns a lively 88-93 mph fastball that hitters rarely elevate and he can knock them out with a solid-average curveball that he gets hitters to chase. His ability to keep the ball in the yard (40 HR in 849.2 career innings) may be his best attribute. At Triple-A Rochester this year, he posted a 2.14 ERA and a .185 BAA in nine starts. As an extreme groundball guy with an encouraging strikeout rate, there is always a chance he has a breakout and it doesn’t hurt that the Rangers have never seen him. Play: Minnesota +190 (Risking 2 units).

BOSTON -108 over N.Y. YANKEES (GAME 1)

Freddy Garcia v Franklin Morales. The Yankees and Red Sox renewed their ancient rivalry with another classic last night that saw the game tied 5-5 after one inning. The Yanks went on to win and now these two will play a twin bill today. Whether it’s game one or two the matchup must be Garcia versus Morales for this wager to stand. Earlier in the year, Garcia started back-to-back games in which he could not get out of the second inning in either one. He was subsequently demoted to the bullpen and gets a spot start here. Garcia has lost velocity each of the past three years. His quality starts are dwindling and line-drive % is creeping up to a very uncomfortable 29%. Those are signs that Garcia is a great fade. Franklin Morales posted one of the lowest xERA’s of any starting pitcher with at least 20 IP in June. His strikeout rate was off the charts and his walks are way down. It remains to be seen if he can sustain these skills over an extended period but remember that he used to be a top prospect in the Rockies organization. Morales is way under the radar and is a huge underlay here against Freddy Garcia. Play: Boston -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Wunderdog

Miami at St. Louis
Pick: Over 9

The Miami Marlins thought they might have a steal when they acquired mal-content Carlos Zambrano in the offseason. It hasn't panned out as his 4.82 ERA with the Cubs last year stands at 4.03 this season, and lately he has pitched poorly. Zambrano's last five starts have amounted to just 22 innings where he has allowed 21 runs. One thing the Cardinals have been doing is swinging the bats, scoring 82 runs over their last 14 games - just shy of 6 per contest. The Marlins have also found their offense as they have plated 5 or more runs in 12 of their last 17 games. The Marlins have seen just four of their last 22 games with a total set from 9 to 10.5 stay UNDER the total, while St. Louis weighs-in at 20-7 to the OVER in their last 27 as a favorite of -110 to -150. Home plate umpire Gerry Davis has been hitter-friendly with the OVER scoring 7-3-1 in his last 11 donning the mask. Play on the Over.