Ross King
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
Cubs have improved lately but they are still 2-11 on Saturdays and 13-31 on the road.Samardzija after being great in his last outing is still 0-4 with a 12.27 e.r.a in his previous 5 including a game that seen these Cubs lose 17-1 to these Mets.While Dee may have lost 4 of his last 5 he still is 2-1 with a 2.65 e.r.a at home in his last 5.Take Ny Mets to come out on top as your freeplay winner.
Tony Stoffo
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
Free Play - Biggest pitching mismatch of the day goes here with Jason Hammel matching up with Jered Weaver - warranting me laying the big price with the Angels here this evening. First off Hammel for the Orioles has gone south in his last 2 starts losing both while allowing 12 runs and 15 hits in just 9+ innings pitched. These numbers include him getting pounded by the Angels where he gave up 8 runs in just 3+ innings pitched. So you definitely can see how the Angels can once again put up some crooked numbers up on the scoreboard in this spot. Well just the opposite can be said for Weaver as after having to leave the game in the first inning against the Yankees and having to go on the DL - Weaver has come back lights outs. In his last 3 games he has been brilliant going 3-0 and allowing just 1 run and 13 hits - while walking 0 batters in 19+ innings pitched resulting in a 0.46 ERA and a 0.966 WHIP.
Jack Jones
San Diego Padres +103
The San Diego Padres are showing solid value as a home underdog to the Cincinnati Reds Saturday. San Diego is playing its best baseball of the season right now, winning six of their last seven games overall. Cincinnati has lost three of four coming in.
Clayton Richard is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 6-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 17 starts, including 3-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven home starts. Richard is 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA in his last five outings, and has yielded two runs or fewer in seven of his last 10.
Homer Bailey is 6-6 with a 4.24 ERA and 1.321 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.19 ERA and 1.443 WHIP in his last three. In his last start against the Reds, Richard gave up just one earned runs and seven base runners over 7 2/3 innings.
The Reds are 11-27 against the money line in road games after allowing 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. Cincinnati is 0-4 in Bailey's last 4 starts as a favorite. The Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 games as an underdog. Bet San Diego Saturday.
MATT RIVERS
12-4 comp play run the past 16 days.
Free play for Saturday will be for the Brewers and Astros to make their way Over the total with Greinke and Rodriguez on the hill.
Last night's series opener wound up staying Under the total by a half-run, but Milwaukee still has been Over the total in 6 of their last 9 games, while Houston has also been playing them high of late with 3 of their last 5 games landing in the Over column.
I know Zack Greinke is the owner of a 3.08 season ERA, but he just allowed 5 runs in 6 innings in a home start to Miami his last trip to the mound, and his road ERA this season is over 4.
Wandy Rodriguez will counter with a 4.35 ERA for his last 3 starts. 10 of the southpaw's 17 starts this year have landed Over the total. As for Greinke, 11 of his 17 season starts have landed High.
The teams have still combined to play Over the total in 8 of the last 11 season series meetings.
Stick with the Over on Saturday afternoon in the Brewers-Astros game.
3♦ OVER
DOM CHAMBERS
Today, let’s look at the over in the Kansas City Royals-Detroit Tigers game.
There are some pitchers with some issues going in this game.
The Tigers are starting Doug Fister. In his last three starts, he has been an over maching by himself. He is 0-3 with an ERA of 10.05. He has given up 19 runs in 14 1/3 innings.
For the Royals, Bruce Chen gets the start.his numbers are a bit better, going 7-7 with a 4.83 ERA. But on the road, it gets worse as he is 3-4 with a 6.46 ERA.
The trend is for both pitchers to give up some runs and that is what you want to get the over.
Both Chen’s and Fisters’ last two starts have gone over the total.
For the Tigers, three of their last five games have gone over the total.
The number is not set very high and these teams should get over the total.
3♦ OVER
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Royals to spring the upset over the Tigers.
No doubt Kansas City has not had an easy go of it in this series, as last night's loss drops the Royals to 1-6 since last year versus the Motown Cats.
Willing to give Bruce Chen a shot at this price against the disappointing Doug Fister. Fister missed some time with injury this season, and he really does not seem to be right, as the righty is just 1-6 for the season, and the Tigers are only 2-8 when Fister toes the rubber.
Fister's last three starts have all been losses, as he has allowed a whopping 25 hits and 19 runs (16 earned), in his last 14-plus frames pitched. Those are tough numbers to rally around, even against the Royals!
Bruce Chen will go for Kansas City, and the veteran lefty has gone 7-3 his last eleven starts, and his April start against Detroit was quite respectable - even though he took the loss - as he went seven innings and allowed just two earned runs to cross.
Kansas City to come through in the underdog role.
1♦ KANSAS CITY
CRAIG DAVIS
41-24-1 free play run coming into Saturday's action.
Free play of the day on the Tampa Bay Rays over Cleveland.
Tampa broke out of their offensive funk last night with a barrage of hits, beating one of baseball's hottest pitchers, Justin Masterson. The question is... can they repeat that feat on consecutive nights? I think the answer is... yes, they can.
If they do, they have to beat another fairly warm pitcher in Ubaldo Jimenez.
Rays OF B.J. Upton had three hits and was assisted by Ben Zobrist and Luke Scott each knocking out two-run homers. What's ironic is the fact the Rays hadn't been scoring runs over the past week and a half, averaging 2.9 runs per game. It was especially impressive considering Masterson entered the game with a 1.50 ERA over his previous five starts.
Jimenez, today's starter, is 7-7 overall with a 4.59 ERA including a 2.93 ERA over his last six starts, but even having said that he really hasn't been quite as sharp as those numbers might indicate. He's still giving up long balls and walking more than he wants and only gets run support seemingly one in every two games.
Matt Moore will be making his first career start against the Indians after finishing with a solid start in his last outing vs. the NY Yankees. The young lefty allowed three runs and nine hits in seven innings of a 4-3 win over the Yankees. He's won his last four decisions and has a 3.10 ERA in a span of games that dates back to mid-May.
It probably won't be a blowout like last night, but the Rays will eventually win this one and it will mark another free play of the day winner.
2♦ TAMPA BAY
thanks Blade
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ San Francisco Under 8: Last night I had the Under and it just didn't pan out the way I hoped. Well I will come right back with it here. James McDonald has been rolling for Pittsburgh, with a 2.36 ERA in his last 7 starts. James has really been solid at home with a 1.73 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP, while in 6 day starts he has a 1.96 ERA and a WHIP of 0.93. Overall Pittsburgh home games have averaged just 6.3 rpg, with James' home starts averaging just 6.6 rpg, while his 6 day starts have put up just 6 rpg. James has faced the Giants 4 times in his career and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in his last 3 vs them, while none of his 4 starts vs them has put up more than 7 runs. Ryan Vogelsong has been cruising for the Giants as well this year, with a 2.26 ERA overall, including a 1.99 ERA in his last 7 starts. He has allowed more than 3 ER's once all year and has allowed 2 ER's or less in 10 of his last 12 starts. He does have a 3.54 ERA on the road, but a 2.45 in 8 day starts, with those day starts averaging just 6.6 rpg. The Giants score well on the road, but James should be able to shut them down here, while Pittsburgh will have problems scoring more than the 3.54 rpg they average at home. Classic pitcher's duel here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Toronto Over 10.5: I wanted to make this play a bit higher, but the sharps are all over it and can't remember the last time the Betting First Look won 5 in a row, so we'll play it safe here. Nice pitching matchup for an Over. Ricky Romero has really struggled of late, with an 11.25 ERA and a 2.38 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Overall this year he has an 8-3 mark, but with a 5.35 ERA and than means high scoring games, which is true as 12.2 rpg have been scored in his starts this year. On the road he checks in with a 5.96 ERA, while 11.8 rpg have been scored in those starts. the Over is 14-2 in his starts overall and 7-1 in his road starts, while in his last 7 starts there has been at least 11 runs scored in each one of those. Gavin Floyd comes in having allowed just 4 ER's in his last 3 starts, but prior to those starts he had a 10.38 ERA in his previous 6 starts. Gavin has a 4.99 ERA at home, but a 7.96 ERA in his last 5 starts at home, plus he has a 7.45 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Jays, with an average of 11.2 rpg being scored in those games. Romero has a solid 3.62 ERA in 4 starts vs the Sox, but the last 3 vs them has seen at least 14 runs put up. Toronto averages 5 rpg vs righties and 5.4 rpg in day games, while the Sox have put up 5.2 rpg at home and 5 rpg in day games. I expect at least 5 runs from each team in this one as this game soars Over the total.
NY Mets/ Chicago Over 8.5: Jeff Samardzija had a rough start to his year as he allowed 11 ER's in his first 3 starts, but then settled down to allow just 13 ER's in his next 8 starts. Right now he is on the down swing again, as he has allowed 26 ER's in his last 5 starts, while posting an ERA of 9.24 over that same stretch. During his last 5 he had a start vs the Mets and he allowed 9 ER's on 6 hits and 4 walks in just 4.1 innings of work. The Mets won that game 17-1. That game was at home and now he is on the road where he has 5.62 ERA, allowing 57 hits and 21 walks in just 48 innings of work. Lets also note that Jeff has a 6.70 ERA in day starts (compared to a 2.36 ERA at night), with his day starts averaging 9.9 rpg. The Mets have scored just 4.2 rpg at home, but in their last 10 games here they have averaged 5.4 rpg, while their last 10 overall they have put up 6.6 rpg. The Mets average 5.13 rp/9 vs righties overall this year and 4.5 rp/9 vs them at home. The Cubs hit .261 and score 4.1 rp/9 off of righties on the road this year and they have averaged 4.6 rpg in their first 5 games of this trip so far. Dillion Gee may be the weakest of the Met starters, as he has a 4.34 ERA overall and a 4.55 ERA at home. Gee averages 6.1 innings per start and behind him is one of the worst pens in the league, so some late runs are to be had here. Gee does have a 3.20 ERA in his day starts, but thanks to the Pen, the Mets as a team have still allowed 6 rpg in his day starts. I expect no less than 10 runs here.
thanks Blade
Your more than welcome 😎
Hollywood Sports
Reds at Padres
Play: Under
Cincinnati (45-38) won the opening game of this series by a 6-0 score last night -- and they have then played 5 straight games Under the Total after scoring at least five runs in their last game. The Under is also 5-0-1 in their last 6 games after allowing no more than two runs in their last contest. The Reds have also played 4 straight road games Under the Total with the number set at 6.5 or less. They send out Bailey who is 6-6 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. The right-hander has thrived when pitching away from the Great American Ballpark this year given his 2.96 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .224 opponent's batting average when on the road. He looks poised to have another good outing against a Padres' team that has played 4 straight home games Under the Total against right-handed starting pitchers. San Diego (34-51) has played 7 of their last 9 games Under the Total after allowing at least five runs in their last contest. They send out Richard who is 6-8 with a 3.64 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP this season. The left-hander has been outstanding as of late given his 1.70 ERA over his last five starts. Richard also loves to pitch at home in Petco Park where he sports a 2.91 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and .237 opponent's batting average. The Padres have played 10 of their last 12 home games Under the Total with Richard pitching as an underdog. San Diego has also played 10 of their last 14 games Under the Total with Richard pitching with the Total set at 6.5 or less. He should fare very well against a Cincy team that has played 6 straight games Under the Total against left-handed starting pitchers. Take the Under in this one while listing both starting pitchers.
Freddy Wills
Giants vs. Pirates
Play: Under 8
I love the under here as two of the best pitchers in the National League (both in top 5 in ERA) who got snubbed from the All Star game battle to prove to the media that they belonged there. If that's not motivating enough the two both post great ERA's during day starts as McDonald has a 1.96 and Vogelsong 2.45 after posting a 2.08 last year during day starts. The Giants and the Pirates are among the worst hitting day teams ranked 24th and 22nd while they are 1 and 2 in pitching during the day. The under is 30-10-1 in Vogelsong's last 41 starts and I've given up trying to figure out this guy since he's proven me wrong so many times. It looks like the oddsmakers are still posting high totals when he pitches and in a big park like PNC this total should go under.
Mark Franco
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres
Play: San Diego Padres
San Diego is playing its best baseball of the season right now, winning six of their last seven games. Clayton Richard is 6-8 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.205 WHIP in 17 starts, including 3-3 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven home starts. Richard is also 4-1 with a 1.70 ERA in his last five outings, and has given up two runs or fewer in seven of his last 10 starts. Take the Padres at home tonight.
Vegas Experts
Braves at Phillies
Play: Braves
The Braves solidly beat the Phillies yesterday 5-0 and we expect them to pull out another win tonight. Atlanta has won their last 8 of 11 games on the road. While Philadelphia has lost eight of nine to fall 11 games below .500. Atlanta's third baseman Chipper Jones, is batting .432 (19 for 44) during a 12-game hitting streak! The Braves' starting pitcher Tommy Hanson is 9-5 with an ERA of 3.70. In his last five starts on the road he is 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA
Charlies Sports
San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates-130
The (46-38) San Francisco Giants of the National League West division will take on the (46-37) Pittsburgh Pirates of the MLB National League East division in 2012 MLB action. The Giants will Right handed Ryan Vogelsong, who is (7-3) with a 2.26 era this season to the pitchers mound vs. Right Handed James McDonald (8-3) with a 2.45 era. The Giants have taken 3 of 3 from Pittsburgh so far in 2012 including a 6-5 win last night. Pirates get the home win-130.