MLBPredictions
San Diego Padres +103
The Cincinnati Reds evened this 4 games series with a 6-0 win last night. The loss broke up the Padres 6 game winning streak, and snapped Cincinnati's 3 game losing skid. Tonight we see Homer Bailey on the rubber for the Reds. He is 6-6 with a 4.24 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average. Over his last three starts he is 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA. Clayton Richard is on the mound for San Diego and he has been solid this year with a 6-8 record, 3.64 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and .249 opponents batting average. He has been particularly good in June and July with a 2.21 ERA in June, and a 2.08 ERA in his lone July start where he beat Arizona going 8.2 innings and just missing a complete game. Note that the Padres are 6-1 in their last 7 overall and 4-1 in their last 5 games following a loss. Last night's lousy performance by the Padres gave us some value with them at home tonight behind Clayton Richard and we are going to take the underdog price tag for 2 units.
Colorado Rockies +185
Erase his first two starts and Jeff Francis has been very solid this season. In his last 4 outings he is 2-0 and has allowed just 5 earned runs against. Amongst those starts was a home game against Washington where he went 5 innings giving up 5 hits and 2 earned runs in a Rockies 4-2 victory (with Strasburg pitching for Washington). Francis has actually been better than Gonzalez over their past three starts, as Gio despite being 3-0 has a 1.59 WHIP and 5.29 ERA. The Rockies won 5-1 last night and I think they have a chance to pull off another upset today.
New York Yankees +103
I was surprised to see the Yankees as underdogs in this night game of a good double header. Phil Hughes has been solid as of late with a 2-1 record, 3.54 ERA, and 0.98 WHIP over his last three starts. Doubront has struggled lately posting a 5.83 ERA in June where hitters were batting .309 against him. In his last start he lasted just 4.1 innings although he gave up just 1 earned run. The Yankees are 22-8 in their last 30 overall, while the Red Sox have dropped 4 straight and 5 of 7. The pitching match up favors New York here and I will take them as dogs.
Minnesota Twins +166
We don't know much about Samuel Deduno as he has only appeared as a reliever and makes his first start in the Majors, but we do know that he has been good in Triple-A ball this year. Deduno is 1-2 with a 2.14 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .185 opponents batting average over his 9 starts. We also know that teams haven't had troubles roughing up Derek Holland this season. He is 5-4 with a 5.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and .251 opponents batting average. The Twins have won 6 of their last 8 games, while the Rangers have dropped a season high 5 straight. Over that span the Rangers have scored just 9 runs (less than 2 per game). The Rangers offense can wake up at any time, but even if they do tonight the Twins should still have a shot at winning with Holland on the mound. I like the +166 price we can get the Twins at.
Oakland Athletics -140
The A's enjoyed a walk off win last night, which dropped the Mariners to 35-50 and took Oakland to .500 at 42-42 (23-19) at home. Oakland has now won 5 straight games, while the Mariners have lost 4 of their last 5. Jason Vargas is 7-7 on the season with a 4.31 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .243 opponents batting average. He is 5-4 on the road with a 5.70 ERA. Jarrod Parker is 5-3 on the season with a 2.46 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and .209 opponents batting average. At home he is 2-1 with a stellar 1.54 ERA. The A's are 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a losing record, and are 36-15 in their last 51 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Seattle is just 2-8 in their last 10 as an underdog and 0-4 in Vargas' last 4 starts as an underdog. Oakland gets things done at home again tonight.