Karl Garrett
The offense for the Yankees has been pretty stagnant of late, as New York has played under the total in their last 3, and 6 of their last 7, and the G-Man has a feeling their Saturday date with the Astros is also going to stay under the posted total.
Wandy Rodriguez is capable of pitching a quality game, and he has strung together 2 nice starts in a row, including a solid 7 innings of 3 run ball in his last start at Colorado.
Javier Vazquez has really started to settle in for the Yankees, and his last 2 starts have seen just 3 runs in 14 innings of work for a 2-0 mark.
Vazquez did face Houston last season while with Atlanta picking up a win while blnaking the 'Stros for 7 frames.
With last night's under, Houston is now on a 4-1 under run their last 5 games.
G-Man looking low in the Bronx on Saturday afternoon.
2♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from the Windy City, as I’ll take the Cubs -1½ runs against the White Sox.
I’m done trying to figure out how in the hell Cubs right-hander Carlos Silva – a career journeyman – is doing it. I’m just going to ride the wave until it dies. And all you need to know is the Cubs have won 10 consecutive games in back of Silva, who is 8-0 with a 2.93 ERA overall, 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in six home games (all Cubs wins) and 5-0 with a 2.63 ERA in six day games (all Cubs wins). Over his last five outings, Silva has given up just eight runs in 31 2/3 innings (2.27 ERA).
Now compare that to Mark Buehrle’s last five starts. The White Sox southpaw has surrendered 18 runs (17 earned) over 24 2/3 innings in his last five trips to the mound (6.20 ERA). He started this month with a 9-6 home loss to Texas (six runs, 12 hits in 5 1/3 innings) and followed that with Sunday’s ugly outing against the Indians (six runs allowed in three innings). Again, both those contests came on the South Side. Well, away from home this year Buehrle is 0-4 with a 5.88 ERA.
While the Cubs are on a 10-0 run behind Silva (including seven multiple-run wins), the White Sox have lost seven of Buehrle’s last 10 starts (all seven losses by multiple runs). The Sox are also 1-8 in Buehrle’s last nine starts as an underdog. Two final points: 1) The Cubs hit lefty pitching very well at Wrigley Field (.283 average), and 2) we’ve got a “homer” umpire behind the plate in Doug Eddings (home teams are 10-3 when Eddings works the dish, and 12-3 going back to last season).
3♦ CUBS -1.5
Bobby Maxwell
Scored the FREE winner on Friday night with the Red Sox dominating the Phillies at Fenway Park. The win improved my comp record to 108-90-3. Tonight I have another free baseball winner for you as I go with the Brewers at home to wipe out the Rangers in interleague action.
The Brewers will make it two in a row over the Rangers tonight when they send lefty Manny Parra to the hill at home against Scott Feldman.
Milwaukee has won four of its last five games and snapped the Rangers’ three-game winning streak on Friday night with a 6-2 victory. Parra looked good in St. Louis on Sunday, giving up two runs on four hits in 5.1 innings, striking out 10 in a 4-3 victory over the Cardinals.
Feldman has a 5.31 ERA in his last three starts and he’s just 1-4 with a 7.18 ERA on the road. The Rangers are just 3-7 in his last 10 starts and he’s allowed four runs or more in nine of his last 10 and seven straight starts. They are on slides of 1-7 when he starts on the road, 1-6 when he’s an underdog and 2-5 when he starts on Saturday.
As a team, the Rangers are just 3-11 on the road, 8-19 on Saturdays and 20-47 on the road against southpaws.
The Brewers are 5-1 in Parra’s last six home starts and 5-1 when they are a home favorite. I’m loving Parra in this situation as the Rangers struggle against lefties, struggle on the road and struggle behind Feldman. I’ll play Milwaukee tonight!
3♦ MILWAUKEE
BRETT ATKINS
I'm delivering a free winner on a classic interleague rivalry game tonight as I'm going with the A's on the road in San Francisco to take on the Giants.
Oakland has won seven of 11 against their rivals in San Francisco and swept a three-game set from the Giants earlier this season.
Ben Sheets is on the hill for the A’s and he has absolutely dominated the Giants in his career, leading his teams to six straight wins against them and allowing two runs or less in seven of his last eight outings against the Giants. In his last three, he’s allowed two earned runs in 20 innings against San Francisco dating back to 2008.
Barry Zito is on the mound for the Giants and he’s had no luck against his former mates, losing all four of his outings against Oakland, allowing 20 runs in 20.1 innings of work, including two home losses to them in 2007 and 2008.
The A’s have had Zito’s number and there will be no different tonight. Grab the plus-money and play Oakland in this one.
5♦ OAKLAND
JEFF BENTON
For Saturday, we’ll play the Rays on the run line (-1½ runs) against Florida in interleague action.
First off, this hasn’t been much of a rivalry of late. Despite Florida’s rout on Friday, the Rays are still 12-3 in the last 15 meetings. Of those 12 wins, 11 have been by multiple runs. In fact, the cumulative score in those dozen victories for Tampa is Rays 99, Marlins 30!
Tampa Bay right-hander Matt Garza has had a hand in two of those 12 wins. In two games over a 12-day stretch in 2008, Garza held the Marlins to a total of two runs, four hits and two walks while striking out 13 in 16 innings, as the Rays prevailed 4-1 at home and 6-1 in South Beach.
Granted, Garza’s been a little shaky of late (1-2, 6.88 ERA), but he’s still got rock-solid numbers for the season (6-4, 3.31 ERA). Meanwhile, Florida starter Ricky Nolasco has been struggling even more than Garza lately, allowing 17 runs and 33 hits in his last four starts covering 21 2/3 innings (7.06 ERA). And last year when he faced Tampa, Nolasco lasted all of two innings, surrendering eight runs on eight hits in a 15-2 home loss.
Finally, the Marlins enter this contest in slumps of 2-4 overall, 3-7 against right-handed starters, 2-5 in interleague play (all on the road) and 2-8 on artificial turf. Conversely, the Rays are on surges of 7-2 in interleague play, 17-6 when hosting N.L. teams, 20-9 against the N.L. East and 8-3 with Garza pitching at home. Also, 30 of Tampa’s last 37 victories have been by more than one run.
4♦ TAMPA BAY RAYS -1.5
Nelly
Kansas City + over Cincinnati
The Royals are amazingly 5-0 in Brian Bannister's last five starts as he has taken the win in each game. Bannister has held foes to three or fewer runs in each of those games and he has allowed just four walks in that span. Bannister’s numbers are not as sharp on the road but his last road start was effective and he did dominate Colorado from the NL in the first interleague round. Johnny Cueto has been hit hard in his last two starts, allowing 12 runs and 20 hits in just eleven innings of work. Cueto is 5-1 on the year but his numbers do not dictate that type of success. Cincinnati is batting .303 in the last ten games but most of that success has come against left-handed pitching and the Reds are just 5-5 in those games as the pitching staff has struggled. The Royals bullpen proved stronger last night in an extra-innings win and the Royals are a very solid offensive team with a .275 season average. The Royals are also 4-0 in the last four meetings with the Reds. With great dog value the Royals can ride Bannister to another dog win.
Rocketman
Oakland Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco is 35-12 the past 3 years as a home favorite of -125 to -150. Oakland is scoring only 3.8 runs per game on the road and 3.6 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Oakland bullpen has a 5.72 ERA on the road this season. San Francisco bullpen has a 3.60 ERA overall this year and an amazing 1.89 ERA at home this year. Ben Sheets is 0-3 with a 7.79 ERA on the road this year and is 0-2 his last 3 starts. Barry Zito is 6-2 with a 3.15 ERA overall this year and 4-1 with a 2.85 ERA at home this season. We'll recommend a small play on San Francisco tonight!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -150
After yesterday's embarrassing 10-1 defeat, look for the Dodgers to bounce back strong tonight. Kazmir's stuff has been less than good as the Angels have lost 6 of his 11 starts while he has posted a 5.40 ERA. Meanwhile, Ely has been money for the Dodgers, going 2-0 (5-0 on the money line) with an ERA of only 2.56 at home this season. While the Angels are plying their best ball of the season, so are the Dodgers as they are 23-8 in their last 31 overall. It is also important to note that they are a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss. While the Angels have picked up their play, they are still only 4-9 in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning record and 5-12 in their last 17 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. I'm backing the Dodgers in this bounce back spot.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Francisco Giants -120
I know Zito has struggled against his former team, but I believe he's due tonight when you consider how strong he has been at home this year (4-1 with 2.85 ERA). Meanwhile, Sheets has struggled immensely on the road (0-3 with 7.70 ERA). Plus, the Giants are a good home team, having won 10 of their last 13 home games, and they are also a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 interleague home games. The Athletics are just 8-17 in their last 25 road games and only 11-27 in their last 38 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. They have also lost their last 4 in San Francisco. Take the Giants.
JR O'Donnell
HOU (+230) vs NYY
Way to much value with the Stros and veteran Wandy R who will look to turn around a poor road record vs the PUBLIC YANKEES! The New York Yankees are a not an automatic W as these pesky Houston Astros are the play early on Saturday. Retread Vazquez has lost 9 out of 13 ballgames vs. the Stros and JR O IS NOT AFRAID OF THE YANKEES TODAY. The "Yankees" are just a public disaster right now! Let's roll out a + 230 winner and fire way on the Dog early. The Express is on a smooth 5-2 run the last 7 3* winners and #6 goes tonight. The Stros are a solid 8-3 the last 11 games.
Frank Jordan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago White Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Play: Chicago White Sox
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Yesterday the White Sox doubled up the Cubs 10-5, but today is a new day as Buehrle is on the mound with a 3-6 record and era a little under 5.5. Pitching for the Cubs is 8-0 Carlos Silva who has an era under 3 and the Cubs are 10-1 in his 11 starts this year with that loss coming in his first start. Look for Buehrle to step up like he does often in big games and out duel Silva giving him his first loss of the year. Play Chicago White Sox
Larry Ness
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Seattle Mariners @ San Diego Padres
PICK: Seattle Mariners
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Wade LeBlanc was called up in mid-April with Chris Young heading to the DL. He opened by going 2-0 witha 1.61 ERA in his first five starts (team was 5-0) but then dropped four in a row, posting a 6.43 ERA. The second of those four consecutive losses came May 21 at Seattle, when he allowed eight ERs in just three innings. LeBlanc did however, bounce back in his last outing, a 3-1 win Monday night at Philadelphia (7 IP / 4 hits / 0 ERs). Opposing LeBlanc tonight will be Cliff Lee, who was also the opposing pitcher in that May 21 meeting. Lee allowed eight runs (seven earned) on 11 hits over 6.1 innings of that game but got a win as the Mariners won 15-8. However, Lee has looked very much like the 2008 CY Young winner of 2008 with the Indians and the pitcher who dominated the 2009 postseason with the Phils, in his last three starts. He's 2-0 (team is 3-0), allowing just five ERs over 25 innings for a 1.80 ERA (25-3 KW ratio). Lee didn't get started with the Mariners until April 30 due to some minor injuries but will take a 4-2 record with a 2.77 ERA into this games after eight starts (team is 5-3). He's allowed 53 hits in 61.2 inning plus owns a 57-4 KW ratio. It's not easy pitching for the 23-38 Mariners (8-21 on the road) but it's hard to go against Lee at any time. The Padres are 19-12 at home (holding opponents to just 2.84 RPG) but I'm NOT taking LeBlanc over Lee. Take the Mariners.
SPORTS WAGERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Chicago +1.36 over CHICAGO
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Cubbies may win here but laying juice with this dumpster-fire is a huge risk. The Cubbies were down 10-2 yesterday before they scored some late runs to make it a bit more respectable. They’ve now lost eight of its last 11 and they’re well on its way to losing its fifth straight series. There is absolutely nothing to like about them as the chalk. Carlos Silva and his 8-0 record and 2.92 ERA you say? Well, that’s a nice story and it could continue but how does a guy go from one extreme to the other overnight? It’s not like he’s a young guy coming into his own. He pitched for eight years in the AL and prior to this year his ERA’s over the last four years were as follows: 8.60, 6.46, 4.19 and 5.94. His memories of pitching against AL squads are daunting at best and while the guy is having a tremendous year, I cannot buy into the fact that he’s this much better. He’s defying the odds and even the best pitchers this game has ever seen seldom or rarely win nine straight decisions. So, lay the juice if you feel so inclined to. Taking back a tag against the Cubbies comes highly recommended because they don’t do anything well and they lose a lot more than they win. Besides, the South Side is really heating up, having scored 35 runs over its last five games. Play: Chicago +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
NY Mets +1.05 over BALTIMORE
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Am I missing something here? Anytime the O’s are favored you can pencil us in on the pup and we make no exception here. Brian Matusz is 2-6 with a 5.10 ERA and the Orioles have lost 9 of his 12 starts. Furthermore, the O’s have lost an incredible 13 of its last 15 games and psychologically this team has lost before it even takes the field. In a recent string of seven games they scored a total of 10 runs. The O’s offense is garbage, the defense is garbage, the bullpen is completely toxic and the fact that they’re favored over the red-hot Mets is ludicrous. Yeah, Hisanori Takahashi has struggled in his last two starts but let’s not forget that he shut down the Phillies and Yanks in his two previous starts and will now face a team that can’t get out of its own way. Incidentally, Takahashi has tremendous control and should get right back on track here. Play: NY Mets +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Kansas City +1.62 over CINCINNATI
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Johnny Cueto has looked absolutely brutal the past two games against the Cardinals and the Giants. Over those two starts he surrendered 20 hits in 11 frames and he was lucky on a bunch more batted balls that were hit hard but were right at someone. Personally, I watched both those games and it was like watching batting practice. Cueto has put up good numbers but don’t be fooled. He faced the Pirates three times, the Cards three times, the Padres, Giants and Indians to name a few. Now he’ll take a big step up in class when facing one of the most dangerous line-ups in the game. The Royals continue to consistently score five, six or seven runs almost every night. They beat the Reds last night and there’s no reason they can’t beat them again tonight. Brian Bannister is not remarkable by any stretch but he’s going good right now and always seems to give the Royals a chance to win. This is a big overlay on one of the most overvalued pitchers in the game. Play: Kansas City +1.62 (Risking 2 units).
John Ryan
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Liberty vs. Mystics
Play: Under 148.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
5* graded play UNDER New York/Washington in WNBA action set to start at 7:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 150 points will be scored in this game. NY offense has been doing well, but this type of pace is just not sustainable. NY is 31-12 UNDER (+17.8 Units) after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games since 1997; 72-45 UNDER (+22.5 Units) after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games since 1997. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 54-22 UNDER for 71.1% winners since 1997. Play under with road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 that are off a home win against a division rival against opponent off a road win. 51.3% of these games went under the posted total by a minimum of 7 points. The matchups favor a defensive tone to this game. Take the UNDER.
Scott Rickenbach
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
St. Louis Cardinals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
There is great line value with the Cardinals in this spot. With yesterday’s win, the Cards are now a respectable 34-27 on the season while the Dbacks are a dreadful 24-38 this season. Even at home, Arizona has a losing record on the year. Only one team in the majors, Baltimore, has more losses than Arizona does so far this season. Of course, what is keying this pricey line on the Diamondbacks today is this pitching match-up. The key is that we don’t feel it is anywhere close to being justified. Dan Haren has seen his Dbacks lose 5 of his last 8 starts. In these games Haren has allowed 30 earned runs on 70 hits in 53.2 innings of work.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The numbers Harden has compiled recently are hardly the numbers of a staff ace and, of course, the Arizona bullpen is outclassed by a mile in comparison with the St Louis bullpen. Also, even though Haren is 3-0 in his career against the Cardinals, note that he’s not been in good current form and that is the key plus his career ERA against the Cards is a mediocre 4.29 ERA. He got rocked by the Cardinals in late April and we look for more of the same here. As for Cards starter Adam Ottavino, he’s only been hit at a .250 clip so far in his first two MLB starts and he settled down and had much better command in his second start in comparison with his MLB debut. He’ll be ready tonight and we’re backing the better team with the better bullpen. Look for the Dbacks to struggle in their first look at Ottavino while the Cards pound Haren once again! Consider a small play on St Louis on the money line on Saturday night!