Tony George
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Chicago Cubs -145
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Bit of a stretch on the moneyline here with a team that got hammered 10-5 at home against the hated White Sox as a cross town rival last night. NOT SO FAST!! With Silva on the hill, the Cubs ace with an insane 8-0 record (team is 10-1 in his 11 starts), and a 1.86 ERA his last 3 games, I like their chances at revenge today. Going up against a White Sox bullpen who has been lit up at a 7.77 ERA their last 3 games, and a weaker starter in Buehrle who has posted a 10.12 ERA in his last 3 starts, I think the Cubbies get enough run support behind their ace to bank a win here.
Dwayne Bryant
LA Dodgers -153
After getting punched in the mouth by these Angels last night, 10-1, I expect the Dodgers to get a measure of revenge tonight. John Ely owns a 2.56 ERA and 1.04 WHIP at Dodger Stadium this season, with the Dodgers winning all five of his starts. I love that Ely doesn't walk many hitters. He has walked just 10 batters in 51 innings of work this season, including just FIVE free passes in 31 2/3 innings at home. Ely also has the edge in that these Angels hitters have never faced him, so he should roll through the first four or five innings.
Scott Kazmir pitched well in his last two starts -- both on the road, allowing just one run in each. But his overall road work this season shows a 5.13 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Kazmir also throws A LOT of pitches and walks A LOT of batters. In his last start, he threw 115 pitches in 6 1/3 innings at Oakland. The last two times Kaz threw over 110 pitches, his next start wasn't too great. He threw 117 pitches at Detroit on 5/1 and followed that by allowing 7 runs in 4 1/3 innings at Boston. Kazmir threw 112 pitches at St. Louis in 5/22 and followed that by allowing 6 runs (5 earned) in 5 1/3 innings against Seattle. So I expect the Dodgers, who were held to just 5 hits yesterday and one of those hits was by Chad Billingsley, to have their way with Kazmir tonight.
Even if Kazmir pitches well, which I seriously doubt, there's always that Angels bullpen. Kaz doesn't go deep into games. We can expect about 5 innings out of him (6 if he's extremely lucky). That means we'll see plenty of an Angels pen that owns a 5.62 ERA and 1.76 WHIP on the road this season. They're allowing opponents to hit .280 against them with a .383 OBP.
Bottom line: It sure looks like payback is in order. We have the better starting pitcher (who allows A LOT LESS baserunners) and the better bullpen. And there should be no shortage of motivation after last night's massacre. Did I mention that we're also backing one of the best home teams in baseball (23-11) Take the Dodgers/Ely over the Angels/Kazmir.
SPORTS WAGERS
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Rich Franklin -120 over Chuck Lidell
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This is a fight that I have had circled on the calendar for some time now... We bought into the "Rampage" hype against Evans, but we will not do the same in this contest. Rich Franklin opened as a sizeable favorite, but is now just -120 as a result of all of the praise for Liddell's rededication to MMA. Whether it be Dana White's ringing endorsement or Chuck's girlfriend leaking pics of Liddell's chiseled body on the internet, a newfound confidence for the "Iceman" is oozing all over this betting line. I must say I was fairly impressed with Liddell's physique at the weigh-in, but that's no reason to jump on the former Light-Heavyweight Champ's bandwagon. Sometimes an athlete will benefit from a long layoff and he very well might, but he is 40-years-old and coming off 2 absolutely embarrassing performances. Liddell has been knocked unconscious in 3 of his last 5 fights and that's a trend that is nearly impossible to buck in the sport of MMA. It's also been 2½-years since Chuck has won in the Octagon and three and a half years since he was able to finish a fight with a TKO. Rich Franklin is coming off a knockout loss of his own to Vitor Belfort, but prior to that he had only lost 4 times in his career. His loss résumé is certainly respectable with 2 of the losses coming against Anderson Silva, another coming against Lyoto Machida and finally a questionable split decision loss to Dan Henderson. Franklin certainly has the edge if the fight goes the distance, but he is more than capable of knocking Chuck out for the 4th time in 6 fights. Both fighters know that the winner will likely see themselves with one last run at a title. In that respect how can you not side with the 5 years more youthful and much less damaged Franklin. PLAY: Franklin -120 (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
Patrick Barry (inside the distance) -120 over Mirko “Cro Cop” Flipovic
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Much like the last selection we are siding against an aging warrior here, but in this case we are getting a fresh fighter who is making just his 7th appearance in MMA. Patrick Barry has shown scary talent, which includes some of the most lethal leg kicks you will ever witness. After winning his debut in the UFC against Dan Evensen, he lost his next fight to Tim Hague after he left himself open to a guillotine choke. He learned from that experience and came back stronger than ever in a huge TKO victory over the always tough Antoni Hardonk. The performance was so impressive he earned both Knockout of the Night and Fight of the Night honors. Filpovic is fading fast in the sport and it certainly appears that he is just a shadow of the fighter that was so dominant in PRIDE. This fight promises to be one of the best "standing wars" you will ever see. "Cro Cop" may have a reach advantage, but you can expect Barry to measure the distance and chop him down with punishing leg kicks. I don't think this fight will go to the scorecards, as I think Barry will go for broke early and either end the fight or gas himself out. Thus, it only makes sense to lower the juice and take him to win the fight within the distance. PLAY: Patrick Barry –1.20 inside the distance (Risking 2.4 units to win 2).
Parlay: Paulo Thiago –2.40 and Ben Rothwell -160 (+131)
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Paulo Thiago -240 over Martin Kampmann
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Nothing has come easy for Paulo Thiago in the UFC. His debut was a win against the very talented Josh Koscheck and his only loss in 4 fights in the Octagon came against Jon Fitch. The 4 opponents that he has faced in the UFC have a combined record of 35-10. Thiago is tough as nails and I don't really think that Kampmann has enough power to do any serious damage to him. Kampmann is also well aware of Thiago's submission skills on the ground, so he won't want the fight to go there. There is a lot to like about this matchup for Thiago and he will probably land a flurry of punishing blows before putting Kampmann away. A victory for Thiago would certainly validate his position in the hunt for a shot at GSP's title.
Ben Rothwell –1.60 over Gilbert Yvel
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Ben Rothwell is coming off a massive knockout loss to Cain Velasquez. However, you can't really hold that against him as Velasquez is one of the rising stars in MMA. After destroying Rothwell he went on to beat a legend in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Before dropping 2 of his last 3, Rothwell won 13 consecutive fights which included 2 wins against Krzysztof Soszynsk and one against Roy Nelson. Yvel is a talented fighter in his own right, but Rothwell will be able to handle any type of punishment he can dish out. This fight might not be pretty at times, but expect Rothwell to withstand the early flurry and then finish the fight in convincing fashion. Play: Thiago/Rothwell parlay +1.31 (Risking 2 units).