Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday June, 16

Marc Lawrence

Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians

When the Pirates meet the Indians in Game Two of their three-game Interleague series at Progressive Park in Cleveland Saturday afternoon Pittsburgh will send A. J. Burnett to the hill against Ubaldo Jimenez knowing Burnett is 1-5 in his career team starts in this park. In addition, Burnett's road ERA (8.69) is 7.5 runs per game worse than his his home ERA (1.27) this season. With Jimenez's home ERA (3.28) nearly 3 runs per game better than his road ERA (6.21) this season, we'll stay at home with the Tribe this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Hollywood Sports

Diamondbacks at Angels
Prediction: Under

The Angels (34-31) lost the opening game of their series with Arizona by a 5-0 score -- and Los Angeles has seen the Under go 23-3-1 in their last 27 games following a loss. The Angels have also now played 4 straight Interleague games Under the Total as a favorite. They send out Ervin Santana here who is 3-7 with a 5.74 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP this season. While the veteran right-hander has struggled this year, he has been a bit better at home where he sports a 1.34 WHIP and .238 opponent's batting average as compared to his 1.57 WHIP and .283 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Under is 11-5-2 in the Angels' last 18 home games with Santana making the start. The Under is also a decisive 17-7-4 in LA's last 28 games with Santana pitching with the Total set in the 7-8.5 range. Santana is pitching with an extra day of rest given the Angels' off day on Thursday -- and the Under is 8-2-1 in Los Angeles' last 11 games when Santana was pitching with five days of rest. Arizona (32-32) has played 9 of their last 13 games Under the Total following a win. The Diamondbacks have also now played 6 straight road games Under the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5 range. They counter with Joe Saunders who is 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. But while the left-hander has been saddled with a 5.01 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .320 opponent's batting average when at home in the hitter friendly Chase Field, Saunders has been much better on the road where he owns a sizzling 1.60 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .223 opponent's batting average. Arizona has played 4 straight home games Under the Total with Saunders pitching as an underdog. Saunders is also pitching with an extra day of rest -- and the Diamondbacks have played 5 of their last 6 games Under the Total when Saunders was pitching with five days of rest. Given the deeper sabermetrics for both starting pitchers along with these complementary team trends, it looks likely that the Angels' proclivity to play games Under the Total will continue on Saturday. Take the Under in the game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Los Angeles Angels while listing both starting pitchers Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana.

John Ryan

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

5* graded play on the Dodgers as they take on the Chicago White Sox in Game 2 of their three-game interleague series set to start at 4:05 PM ET, Saturday. I also like playing the Dodgers Sunday as a 5* play.

The Dodgers enter the weekend with the best record in MLB sporting a 40-24 mark and have a solid four game lead over the San Francisco Giants in the National League West division. The Chicago White Sox are in command of the American league Central with a 34-29 record and lead Cleveland by 1 ? games in the division.

The Dodgers have outscored their opponents by 52 runs in the 64 games they have played ranking best in the National League and second only to the Texas Rangers (+72) in MLB.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 180-72 for 71.4% winner and has made 77.2 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on all favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 and with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season and is now facing an opponent with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits per start.

The Dodgers are in a series of strong situations noting that they are 22-7 making 14.7 units using the money line a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season; 7-1 making 7.6 units per game using the money line when facing an excellent fielding teams averaging 0.5 or fewer errors per game this season. Take the Dodgers for a 5* graded play against the CWS Saturday and Sunday.

Kyle Hunter

Miami Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays have been badly short-handed this year, but they still have a very solid 36-28 record. Miami has been the streakiest team in baseball, and they are mired in a bad slump right now. The Rays are 22-8 in their last 30 games against the Marlins. The Rays are 4-1 in Shields' last 5 starts against the Marlins. I like Tampa Bay here.

Rob Vinciletti

Orioles vs. Braves
Play: Under 8

This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 9 of 11 to the under and plays out like this. We want to play the Under for home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win by 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs on 10 or more hits with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs that had 5 or more hits, 5 or more men left on base and did not have any errors. Atlanta has stayed under in 4 of 5 as a home favorite from -150 to -175 and 7 of 10 vs AL Teams while scoring just 3.1 runs per game in the Inter league. The Orioles have gone under in 7 of 11 as a road dog in this range and have a solid 1.67 road bullpen era to follow J. Hammel who has a solid 3.22 era pitching primarily in the toughest division in baseball. Beachy goes for the Braves and he has been solid with a sterling 1.98 era this season. Look for this one to go under the total.

David Chan

Giants @ Mariners
PICK: Over 7

The Giants' (37-28) Tim Lincecum (2-7, 6.00 ERA) is set to square off against the Mariners' (27-39) Kevin Millwood (3-5, 3.57 ERA) on the mound this evening.

Lincecum has been brutal this year, and is in the midst of an eight-start winless stretch in which the hard throwing right-hander has gone 0-5; he's posted a 6.15 ERA over that span (not to mention serving up 26 walks!). "The Freak" has been particularly ineffective on the road, going just 1-3 with a deplorable 7.98 ERA. He's also been destroyed in interleague action, giving up nine runs in 9 2/3's innings of work.

Millwood suffered a pulled groin last week, but the big veteran has been cleared to go today. Millwood pulled himself out of the seventh inning vs. the Dodgers last time out in the middle of a no-hitter. However, I'm not reading too much into that start; remember, Millwood is just 1-2 with a pedestrian 5.47 ERA in five starts in front of the home town crowd this season.

These are a couple of soft-hitting teams, but each catches a break facing these suspect starters.

I feel this number is a little low; consider a second look at the "over" in this contest!

Chris Elliott

Philadelphia Phillies @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies (31-35) will send left hander Cliff Lee to the mound in search of his first win of the season on Saturday against the Toronto Blue Jays (32-32). Lee has a record of 0-3 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and .237 BAA. Its astonishing that Lee hasn`t been able to pick up a win yet this year despite pitching 7 of 10 quality starts. The Phillies are 2-3 on the road in games that Lee has started but have scored only 5 total runs in the 3 losses. A former CY Young award winner, Lee has the mental toughness to battle through this and keep putting up strong performances. Lee won 17 games last year and has averaged 14+ wins per season for the last 8 seasons. Safe to say he is long overdue for a W. Lee has pitched 3 games in Toronto since 2008 with a 2-1 record and 2.59 ERA.

Toronto will send out Ricky Romero to face off with Philadelphia. Romero has been arguably Toronto’s best pitcher this season compiling a record of 7-1 an ERA of 4.15, a WHIP of 1.32, and a BAA of .225. He hasn’t been solid of late, allowing 14 runs in his last 4 starts in 23 innings of work, good for a 5.49 ERA. He has faced the Phillies 3 times in his career, with Toronto winning 2 of the games and Romero posting a 2.22 ERA. The Jays have had 3 starters go down with injury in the past week, 2 of them leaving in the first inning, including Drew Hutchinson yesterday. As good as the Jays bullpen was yesterday pitching the shutout, they are stretched to the limit and will be relying heavily on Romero to pitch deep into this game.

Philadelphia has been scoring more frequently of late, putting up 39 runs in the last 7 games despite being shut out yesterday. Chase Utley has been rehabbing in the minors and has an expected return date of no later than July 1st which should give the team a boost. The team started the season slow with the bats but have been steadily improving. Jim Thome has been red hot with consistent at bats due to the interleague schedule. The Jays big bats have been heating up as well after a slow start with Jose Bautista leading the way as expected. After being swept by the Nationals in their last series the Jays will be looking to turn the tides on Philadelphia and get back above the 500 mark. Cliff Lee is too good to not have a win yet this year. I think he will get that win tomorrow. Take the Phillies to win.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies VS Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

The Philadelphia offense is bad, which is why Cliff Lee is winless on the season. His ERA is over 4 his last three starts and he faces a Top 5 Toronto offense and a tough park to pitch in. The Phillies are 5-11 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starter and they face a strong southpaw in Ricky Romero (7-1), who has a 2.21 ERA in 20 innings against Philadelphia. And the Blue Jays are 15-3 in Romero's last 18 home starts. Play the Blue Jays.

Dave Cokin

Pittsburgh Pirates VS Cleveland Indians
Pick: Cleveland Indians

AJ Burnett has been strong for the Pirates. But his numbers at this site are miserable, and Ubaldo Jimenez has suddenly come alive for the Tribe. Rough week in progress for the Bucs, and I'll try and beat them again here with a recommendation on the Indians.

SPORTS WAGERS

San Francisco -110 over SEATTLE

The Mariners lost again last night. They’ve now lost six straight, all at home and during that stretch they’ve been outscored 32-13 while hitting a combined .212. The Giants have hit .274 over their past six games and will now face Kevin Millwood. Millwood is a 10-year veteran and is certainly pitching better this year than he has in recent seasons but at the age of 37, it’s unwise to expect it to last. He was a non-roster invitee to the M’s and barely made the team out of spring training. Millwood is just 1-2 at Safeco with a 5.47 ERA. Tim Lincecum has all the skills to dominate a lineup and could get hot at any time. He has 77 K’s in 72 innings but has been hurt hard by a poor strand rate and too many walks. On the positive side, his groundball//line-drive/fly-ball splits are fine and along with his xERA, all numbers still attest to a very good 27-year-old starting pitcher who should see better results coming months. It's just that the walks and low strand rate have at least temporarily dinged his once-unquestioned ace status. Lincecum spotting a small number against Millwood and the reeling Mariners is a high percentage play. Play: San Francisco -110 (Risking 2 units).

Nelly

Minnesota - over Milwaukee

Liam Hendriks is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA this season, making four starts for the Twins earlier this season. Two of those starts were pretty strong and two did not go well, leaving him a spot back down in Rochester. Hendriks has done everything possible to prove he deserves another shot, going 5-0 with a 1.94 ERA in AAA since being demoted. Hendriks joins a Twins team that has a great track record in interleague play and also has been hot offensively of late with a .301 team average in that last ten games, scoring over six runs per game. The Brewers will also be dealing an inexperienced starter Saturday with Michael Fiers making his fourth start of the season. Fiers made a brilliant debut but has now allowed 18 hits and eight runs in his last two starts. Milwaukee was fortunate to win last night as they were severely out-hit in the game, getting a late home run off Twins closer Matt Capps moments after what could have easily been ruled an inning ending strike three for rookie catcher Martin Maldonado. The Twins got two more home runs from Trevor Plouffe who is perhaps the hottest power hitter in baseball right now and Justin Morneau leaving the lineup may actually help the cause as the first baseman has been struggling. The Twins have dropped three in a row but the offense is doing its part and Milwaukee's bullpen has been much worse with a 6.20 ERA in the last ten games despite winning the battle in the late innings last night. Hendriks has far more upside in this battle of young starters.

Ross King

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Toronto is 24-40 in June the last 3 seasons and versus left handed starters they are 43-51.While the Toronto season is already in jeopardy after losing three starters in a week the Phillies roster may look improved in a couple of weeks with the return of some big bats.Take a determined Phillies team to get starter Lee his first win of the season while Toronto starter Romero coming off a shaky outing and with their confidence going downward as your freeplay winner.

Steve Merril

White Sox vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7.5

Philip Humber tries to find his perfect game magic on Saturday night when the White Sox take on the Dodgers. Humber is 1-4 with a 7.50 ERA since making history on April 21st in Seattle. He has given up seven home runs in his last four starts and overall he is 2-4 with a 5.92 ERA this season. Humber faced the Dodgers last season and allowed 2 runs and five hits in seven innings. Los Angeles has been scoring runs as of late and they are hitting right around .250 in their last eight games. The White Sox bullpen has been poor at times picking up eight losses and nine blown saves on the season. Chad Billingsley is 4-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 13 starts with nine of those starts going Over the total. He has given up 19 runs and 44 hits in 38 innings at home this season. He gave up 4 runs and six hits in six innings in his last home start against Milwaukee. The White Sox have scored 5 runs or more in four of their last six games. They are hitting over .270 in interleague play. The Dodgers’ bullpen is another inconsistent unit with nine losses and eight blown saves. We’ll recommend the Over in tonight’s game between the White Sox and Dodgers.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers -126

At 41-24 on the season, the Los Angeles Dodgers have the best record in the national league. They are showing great value Saturday as just a small home favorite over the Chicago White Sox. I'll gladly side with the Dodgers at this price tonight.

Chad Billinglsey is 4-4 with a 3.57 ERA in 13 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA over his last two starts while allowing just two earned runs in 14 innings. Philip Humber is 2-4 with a 5.92 ERA and 1.428 WHIP in 11 starts this year, including 0-2 with a 9.58 ERA over his last two starts.

The Dodgers are 11-1 as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season. Los Angeles is a perfect 10-0 when playing on Saturday this season. The White Sox are 1-9 in Humber's last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Billingsley's last 6 starts as a home favorite. Bet Los Angeles Saturday.