JAY MCNEIL
It doesn't get any simpler than this:
Adam Wainwright, who was 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA in four starts against the AL since last season, has posted a 1.96 ERA in winning his six home starts this season.
He's been near unbeatable and should have no trouble dominating the Athletics, who have lost six of seven to fall a season-worst three games below .500.
This will be a blowout, as Oakland's Ben Sheets is 6-14 with a 4.05 ERA in 26 career starts against St. Louis, his most losses against any team.
All Redbirds tonight!
2♦ CARDINALS -1.5
JOEL TYSON
For Saturday night, go over the total in the Indians-Pirates game.
David Huff of Cleveland sports an 0-5 mark on the road this year, and his road ERA stands at over 7. With Pittsburgh desperated to snap their rather lengthy losing skid, look for the Bucs to swing away against Huff and that bloated ERA.
Jeff Karstens will counter, and his ERA is a tick over 4 for the season, and is also likely to give up a few runs of his own this evening against a Cleveland team that has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, and 6 of their last 9 games.
The Pirates had played over the total in 3 in a row prior to last night's low-scoring weekend opener.
Things return to normal tonight, take the over!
4♦ OVER
JEFF BENTON
That’s four straight free-play winners as the Rangers (7♦) took down the Astros on Friday. In addition to cashing in my last four freebies, I’m now on a 90-59-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, we’ll go right back to Houston and play the red-hot Rangers once again, this time on the run line (-1½ runs)
You may not be familiar with the name Colby Lewis, but you will be soon enough. Lewis is 6-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 13 starts this season, and over his last five outings he’s given up just 10 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings (2.70 ERA), allowing two earned runs or fewer in four of those five games.
The right-hander is coming off an outstanding performance at Milwaukee on Sunday, as he outdueled Brewers ace Yovani Gallardo, allowing just two runs on three hits (two of them HRs) while striking out 10 in eight innings. It was the fourth time Lewis has recorded a double-digit strikeout effort, and he now has 81 Ks vs. just 33 walks in 84 2/3 innings.
Now Lewis runs up against a punchless Astros offense that hits just .234 against right-handed pitching this season and averages 6.1 strikeouts per game. Well, that offense better come to life today or Houston doesn’t stand a chance, because it’s highly unlikely that Brian Moehler is going to outpitch Lewis.
Moehler is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in 16 appearances (four starts) in 2010, and he’s given up 66 baserunners in 37 innings (opponents are reaching base at a .409 clip against the right-hander). And get a load of Moehler’s numbers in his last six starts going back to last September: 31 runs allowed in 25 1/3 innings (11.01 ERA). On top of that, in his last four starts against Texas, he’s yielded 21 runs in 19 2/3 innings (the Rangers won three of those four games, including a 6-3 victory in Houston last year).
Obviously, the Rangers – who are riding a six-game winning streak and are 9-1 in their last 10 games, with seven wins by more than a run – are a much better ballclub than the Astros. And they’ve owned this rivalry, winning six of the last seven meetings overall and five of the last six in H-Town. Behind Lewis, they’ll cruise to another easy victory tonight!
5♦ TEXAS RANGERS -1.5
Stephen Nover
My free selection today is the White Sox and Jake Peavy against the Nationals and J.D. Martin. The price is right considering how well Chicago is playing, how poorly Washington is playing and the pitching matchup.
The White Sox have won eight of their last nine games. They also are 24-8 in their last 31 interleague games.
The Nationals have dropped four in a row and six of their last seven. They have scored 11 runs in their last four games, while batting .199 during this time span.
Now the Nationals face a rejuvenated Jake Peavy, who has had two straight excellent outings. Peavy, though, only is a short favorite because he was scratched from this scheduled Thursday start due to a tired right shoulder.
Tests showed no structural damage. The extra day should help Peavy, a power pitcher. The White Sox are fine with him making this start and so am I.
After facing Stephen Strasburg last night, the White Sox draw J.D. Martin. Talk about night and day. Martin isn't long for the big leagues. This is just his fourth start since being called up from the minors. The Indians got to him for seven runs and nine hits in Martin's last outing.
3♦ WHITE SOX
MTi Sports
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Cincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
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The Mariners are 13-0 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they scored in at most two separate innings and the Reds are 0-8 on the road after a one run loss and it is not the first game of a series. Finally, Seattle is 11-0 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they never trailed and it is not the first game of a series. Consider the M's.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -115
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The Brewers are just 6-15 in their last 21 games as an underdog, and they are 0-5 in Gallardo's last 5 starts as an underdog. Plus, the Brewers have long struggled at Coors Field, losing 21 of their last 28 in the higher elevation and 8 of their last 10 to the Rockies overall. The Rockies are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a favorite and 5-2 in Francis' last 7 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take the Rockies.
ROCKETMAN
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Texas @ Houston
Play: Texas -1.5
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Texas is now 13-4 in the month of June this year. Texas is 30-12 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Houston is 1-8 this year as a home underdog of +125 to +150. Texas has won 6 in a row and 9 of their last 10 games overall this season. Houston has lost 6 of their last 7 games overall. Texas is 29-15 at night this year. Texas bullpen has a 3.54 ERA overall this year and a 3.44 ERA on the road this season. Houston is scoring only 3.4 runs per game overall, 3.5 runs per game at home and 3.3 runs per game against right handed starters this season. Colby Lewis is 6-4 with a 3.30 ERA overall this year, 3.68 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA his last 3 starts. Brian Moehler is 0-3 with a 6.32 ERA in all games this year, 0-2 with an 8.19 ERA in all starts and 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA his last 3 starts. Texas should win this one easily tonight and cover the runline. We'll recommend a small play on Texas on the Runline tonight!
EZWINNERS
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St. Louis Cardinals -201
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I gave out the Cardinals as a free play winner yesterday and I am right back on them again today. St. Louis sends their second ace to the mound today with Adam Wainwright who is 9-4 with a 2.41 ERA this season. The A's will send Ben Sheets to the mound. Sheets has struggled this season after missing last year with Tommy John surgery. Sheets is only 2-6 this season with a 4.97 ERA and he has struggled in his career against St. Louis. In twenty six career starts against the Cardinals, Sheets is only 6-14 with an ERA of 4.05. Oakland is only 7-20 in their last twenty seven interleague road games against a team with a winning record and 0-8 as an interleague road dog of +$150 or more. The Cardinals are now 14-3 in their last seventeen interleague games against a right handed starter. Play on St. Louis.
JR O'Donnell
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LA Angels +105
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We are riding La Angels J. Weaver is a nice 6-3 overall and a nice 3.29 ERA, he is dynamite in the day time as the Angels score runs for him and Cubbies Ted Lilly will bounce today & he has not benefited of any run support this season. He has been stellar at home and is coming off a 1 hitter vs. the cross town Chi Sox last outing. Let's roll out the visitor here as the Angels will scratch out a day win vs. a poor hitting Cubbies ball club. Stats on the Angels 21-17 road and as we rolled out before "the Angels" Weaver just is flat out unhittable in the day time.
Matt Rivers
I was close to making this a pay play because getting around 130ish at home with Chris Volstad and the solid enough Marlins is a good value against pretty much anybody.
Jeff Niemann is really good and the Rays are obviously an upper eschelon club led by studs in Crawford, Longoria and Pena. I'm not saying that Tampa won't walk off the field here as the winner but to think they do so 150 or so out of 250 times is just too much and that is about what the odds are suggesting (at least as I write this with the price being around 150).
Florida probably doesn't have a shot to win 90 games like Tampa or get to the playoffs but Volstad is a quality young hurler and at home Hanley Ramirez and the Marlins are not bad at all. Cantu, Uggle and the rest of the fish upset Niemann and the Rays at the Trop last week and I just see no reason why lightning can't strike twice today down in South Beach.
This game is very even in my book and to get any money back at home with Florida is good enough.
Pick: Florida +128
INSIDER ANGLES
Jake Peavy has had a very disappointing season for the Chicago White Sox, but he has looked more like the Peavy of old in his last two starts and he should appreciate facing a National League opponent here in the Washington Nationals.
Remember that this is the first full season for Peavy in the American League, and he has had a tough go this far at 5-5 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. However, he enters this contest off of back-to-back Quality Starts, allowing exactly two runs on six hits in seven innings on each occasion.
Remember that Peavy was considered one of the best pitchers in baseball when he pitched in the National League, and he showed why in his last start against the Chicago Cubs, who were the first NL opponent he has faced this season. He has had success vs. this Washington franchise over the years, allowing three earned runs or less in each of his last seven career starts against them.
The Nationals counter with J.D. Martin, who is 0-2 with a 4.19 ERA in his three starts since entering the rotation, with Washington as a team losing all three of those contests. Martin has never been more than a fill-in type starter, and after pitching decently in his first two outings, he returned to his normal form last time out at Cleveland, allowing six earned runs on nine hits while being allowed to go 7.2 innings, as the Washington bullpen needed a break.
The White Sox have hit right-handers quite well as of late, batting .295 against them over their last 10 games, so look for them to score enough runs here to get Peavy another victory.
Pick: White Sox -115
WUNDERDOG
Baltimore at San Diego
Pick: UNDER 6.5
The Baltimore Orioles are really struggling, but add a couple of elements to those struggles, and they are even worse. They are just 5-18 on the season facing a lefthander, and the biggest reason is their inability to generate any kind of offense. The Birds are averaging exactly 3 runs per game vs. southpaws. They have also piled up some huge profits for UNDER bettors, playing the UNDER in their next game following a loss, which stands at 36-13-1 in their last 50. San Diego has had a similar dilemma facing right-hand pitching, and their last 55 games vs. a right-hand starter puts the ledger at 34-16-5, with the verdict to the UNDER. I will play this one to stay UNDER the total.
Larry Ness
PHI (-150) vs MIN
Cole Hamels went 15-5 with a 3.39 ERA in 2007 and then in 2008, after a 14-10 (3.09 ERA) regular season, led the Phillies to a World Series title. He won MVP awards in both the NLCS and World Series, going 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts (team was 5-0), posting a KW ratio of 30-9. The 2009 season was a major disappointment, as Hamels went 10-11 (4.32 ERA) and then looked very mortal (I'm being nice here) in the postseason. He made four starts in the playoffs, going 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA (Phils were 2-2). He's 6-5 with a 3.74 ERA in 13 starts in 2010 (team is 8-5). He struggled in April (2-2 with a 5.28 ERA in five starts / team was 3-2) but has since been very impressive. He's allowed no more than three ERs in any of his last eight starts (SIX times he's allowed two ERs or less) but is just 4-3 (team is 5-3) in that span. Hamels has received just 3.86 RPG in support this year or his record would be MUCH better. The good news for Phillie fans is that the team is beginning to hit again. Philadelphia was shut out SIX times while averaging a pathetic 2.3 RPG in going 5-14 from May 22-June 12 but has now won FOUR of five (6.0 RPG), including three straight (7.3 RPG). The Twins have lost FOUR of six (lead streaking Tigers by just a half-game in the AL Central) and will count on Kevin Slowey to get them back on track. Slowey is 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA in 13 starts this season (Twins are 8-5) and is 7-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 13 career interleague starts. However, while the Twins are 21-9 in Slowey's home starts since the beginning of the 2008 season, they are just 12-14 in his road starts. The Phillies are back hitting and Hamels is "in a groove." That combo has me on Hamels and the Phils in this one.
Sac Lawson
MIL (+100) vs COL
Yes, Gallardo is coming off of a poor start his last time out.. But get this.. If you look back at his career numbers. Every single time he gives up 4 runs or more in a start, he backs it up by giving up 2 runs or less in the following start. Only once in the last two years has he given up more than 2 runs in the following start and it was last season against the Reds where he gave up 3. In fact, out of the 7 times he's given up more than 4 runs in a start over the last two seasons... He's backed it up by giving up 0 runs in his next start 4 times!! Point being, the guy bounces back.
On top of that, he's facing a good team to bounce back against. Not only are the Rockies dealing with injuries in key positions, but they're only batting 0.229 over the last week, and on top of it, they're in the lower half of the major league rankings when it comes to hitting righties. I definitely like Gallardo's chances today!
On the other side... Milwaukee was shut out last night, yes. BUT, they did have 10 hits. This team is definitely not ice cold, they just need to get some of those hits at the right time. Jeff Francis has been solid in his return, no doubt about that. But, he is a guy that's going to give up 2-4 runs per start, simple as that. He's your standard middle of the rotation guy, and that's fine, but with how I see Gallardo pitching tonight, 3 runs from the Brewers could easily be enough to win this one.
With the total in this game sitting at 8.5... It really makes me think that Vegas doesn't have much faith in our underdog starter. They assume the Brewers will plate 4, and Colorado is capped at 4.5. The reason this side is a play, is because there is no way on this planet I see Gallardo giving up that many runs this evening. And, obviously, if he's sharp we'll see less bullpen.
I trust Gallardo today, trust him with my money. And I recommend you do the same! 1 unit on Milwaukee!
TEDDY COVERS
Kansas City Royals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
The Braves have won three straight, five out of six, and 22 of their last 30 games, a surging team here in June. They’ve been particularly tough to beat at Turner Field, winning 12 of their last 13 home games, with an MLB best 22-7 mark at home in Atlanta. This is all very bad news for a Royals squad that is already ten games under .500, not likely to get much better than that as the season progresses.
Zack Grienke still carries tremendous respect in the betting marketplace following his Cy Young Award season in 2009. But KC isn’t offering him any support this year, and Grienke’s numbers have declined markedly. The Royals are just 3-11 in his 14 previous starts. Grinke’s been roughed up three times in his last five outings, unable to match last year’s consistency. The bullpen behind him is neither rested nor ready following Brian Bannister’s early exit last night.
Meanwhile, Atlanta’s young Kris Medlin is 3-0 with a 3.76 ERA since moving into the starting rotation, and the Braves are 6-1 in his seven starts. Medlin shut down Minnesota in his last trip to the hill, and has other recent quality starts against the Dodgers, Mets and Pirates. The Braves bullpen is rested and ready following a string of six quality starts in seven outings from their starters. 2* Take Atlanta.