Scott Rickenbach
Dodgers @ Red Sox
PICK: Under 11
This total has risen to 11 and we just not feel that this big of a total is justified. Note that Dodgers games have only exceeded a total of 11 runs in 2 of their last 9 games. After getting hammered in yesterday’s 10-6 loss we look for the Dodgers pitching staff to get a boost with the return of Vicente Padilla. He’s a veteran hurler that is capable of frustrating the Red Sox sticks. As for the Red Sox pitching situation today, look for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to give the Dodgers sticks some trouble. It’s not often that the Dodgers seen a knuckleballer in National League action. Padilla was 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA with the Dodgers last season. He also allowed just 11 hits in 13 innings on the mound in his last two starts before going to the disabled list back in April.
Even though Padilla’s career ERA against the Red Sox is not overly impressive his .256 BAA certainly is. As for Wakefield and facing the Dodgers, note the knuckleballer has pitched better than his high ERA shows so far this season. He’s held opponents to a .270 BAA which is the same he allowed last season when Wakefield went 11-5 with Boston! The Dodgers are not familiar with knucklers and Tim has allowed just 19 hits in his last 18.2 innings on the mound. We feel his numbers this season have been inflated by a few bad outings and that he’s starting to turn the corner now. As a result, we’ll take advantage of a total that we feel is absolutely inflated for this match-up. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Boston on Saturday afternoon.
SPORTS WAGERS
Kansas City +1.32 over ATLANTA
Throw out a weak starting rotation and the Royals are among the elite teams in the league. Its bullpen is so much better than they get credit for and its offense has been clicking for weeks. Not included in that poor rotation is Zack Greinke and when a take-back like this is offered on him it’s almost an automatic play and you can double that when you consider that the Braves have never faced him. Greinke’s 2-8 record in the same as the Indians David Huff, which is a crime in itself but Greinke is still among the best hurlers in the game. He’s coming off a complete-game five-hitter against the Reds in Cincinnati with 12 strikeouts and zero walks. On the road this season Greinke has 12 walks and 49 strikeouts in 54 IP and the league is hitting just .216 off him. Kris Medlan also has terrific numbers. However, Medlan is a reliever turned starter and seldom is that something can be trusted over an extended period of time. So, yeah, Medlan has shown he’s capable of throwing a good game but he’s only started seven games this year in 20 appearances and in his career he’s appeared in just 57 games, 11 of them as a starter. Greinke is much more proven and he’s 10 times better. Throw in this price tag and that’s all the incentive needed. Play: Kansas City +1.32 (Risking 2 units).
Texas –1½ -1.04 over HOUSTON
This is very likely the last time any of us will get an opportunity to wager against Brian Moehler and there’s no way we’re going to pass it up. Bud Norris is expected to make his next start and that means that Moehler will be riding the pine for a long, long time. He’s given the Astros exactly what they should have expected (8.20 ERA, 2.04 WHIP) as a starter and they shouldn’t expect any more in this match-up. Moehler is always behind in the count, his stuff is underwhelming at best and he virtually has no chance of succeeding. On the other side of that coin is Colby Lewis. Lewis has a BAA this season of .197 in 84 IP and when you consider that he pitched plenty of innings at the Ballpark in Arlington, it’s even more impressive. On the road, in 51.1 innings, Lewis has allowed just 34 hits for a BAA of .181. His 1.11 WHIP is also rock solid and when you break this one down the bottom line is that the Rangers will score plenty of runs while the Astros will not. This is the biggest pitching mismatch of the day and it’s also worth mentioning that the Rangers are the hottest team in the majors at the moment. Play: Texas –1½ -1.04 (Risking 2 units).