Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday June, 23

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Indians at Houston Astros
Prediction: Houston Astros

When the Indians send Jenmar Gomez to the hill against the Astros in Game Two of this 3-games series in Houston Saturday afternoon the Tribe will do so knowing Gomez is in lousy KW form with 7 strikeouts and 11 walks in his last three starts. WIth the Astros a league-best 10-1 on Saturday this season, look for Gomez's woes to continue here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston.

Rob Vinciletti

Cardinals vs. Royals
Play: Under 9

This game fits a nice totals system that has cashed 10 of 14 times and plays to the under for road favorites of -140 or higher off a road dog win and scored 10 or more runs with 10 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a home favored loss and scored 4 or less runs, The Cardinals have stayed under in 10 of 12 vs the AL and 13 of 19 in June. When the total is 9 to 9.5 in their road games they have gone under all 4 times. KC has played under all 4 times as a home dog from +125 to +150. Mendoza has a solid start last week allowing just 2 runs in 6 innings last week vs the Cardinals who counter with A. Wainwright and he has pitched under in his last 3 with a 2.75 era. In the series 2 of the last 3 have played under. Look for a lower scoring game.

David Chan

Sparks @ Mercury
PICK: Under 164

These teams have played each other twice this season, and LA has taken both.

Game 1 saw the Sparks win 99-88 in Phoenix, the total flying over the posted number of 177.5.

Game 2 saw LA win at home 90-74, the total staying below the posted number of 167.5.

I'm expecting another hard fought battle on Saturday night, and believe Game 3 will also stay below the number.

Note that LA has seen the total go "under" the number in six of 12 contests this year, while Phoenix has seen it dip below the number in seven of ten.

The Sparks have won two straight after hammering Tulsa 95-79 on Wednesday, led by Candace Parker's 33 points, nine blocks, eight boards and four assists.

But more impressively, LA held Tulsa to just 37.2% shooting.

Phoenix is coming off an 80-77 win over Washington on Wednesday, and did it with just eight active players.

"We needed that win," said the Mercury's DeWanna Bonner, who had 19 points. "For us to have all these people hurt and out, and for us to come up with that win, it was great. It gave us a lot of confidence.

"These are great players that we're missing ... we just have to go out there and play hard."

The victory snapped a three-game slide for the Mercury.

Look for LA to come out and try to assert itself down low, running a lot of half court sets while on offense, as it looks to take advantage of its mis-matches down low.

I feel this "situation" sets up perfectly as a lower-scoring affair; consider a second look at the "under" in this one!

Jesse Schule

LA Dodgers First 5 Innings

The Angels are on fire these days, and they will look to make it four wins in a row when they take on their crosstown rivals today at home in LA. Mike Trout is hitting everything in sight these days, batting .338 (second in the AL). Ervin Satana will get the start today, coming off back to back wins and a complete game shutout in his last start.

So the Angels will win in a rout, right? Not so fast, there is more to the story. While Santana was on top of his game in his last start, he has been terrible in the previous four starts, and has ugly numbers for the season. He got a win two weeks ago against Colorado, despite the fact that he got roughed up for seven runs on nine hits in just over five innings. So which Santana will show up here today? Well so far this season, more often than not, we have seen the ugly side of Ervin Santana, and it is two early to dismiss his terrible numbers just because he had one quality outing in his past five.

The Dodgers hand the ball to Chris Capuano, who has been having himself a solid season. Capuano (8-2, 2.71) hasn't gotten much help from his mates lately, as they have only managed two runs in support over his last two starts. In his last start he went eight strong innings, allowing just one run on six hits, but got a no-decision in a 2-1 loss to Chicago.

If one of these two pitchers is going to meltdown early, it would appear to be far more likely that Santana is the guy who would get rocked. With the Angels a favorite, you should be able to get the Dodgers +.5 for five innings of play, which I believe to be excellent value. There is a reasonable chance that Santana has another stinker, but if this turns into a pitcher's duel, things still could work out in our favor.

Dave Cokin

Cleveland Indians vs Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros

Rookie Dallas Kuechel struggled with his control in his debut. But he should do well against an Indians team that doesn't hit lefties and Jeanmar Gomez has been awful of late for the Tribe. I'm leaning the Astros way today.

Jim Feist

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago White Sox
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee has been on a nice roll and the offense is really clicking, No. 9 in baseball in runs scored and 8th in slugging. Lefty Randy Wolf has a 2.25 ERA his last three starts and he faces a White Sox team that has a losing record at home. The Brewers are 24-9 in their last 33 Saturday games and 8-1 in their last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. The White Sox are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 7-16 in Phil Humber's last 23 starts. In fact, the White Sox are 2-12 in Humber's last 14 home starts! Play the Brewers.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis -1½ +120 over KANSAS CITY

The Cardinals brought their league-best .749 road OPS with them last night and won the opener 11-4. Look for more of the same today. Luis Mendoza is coming off back-to-back quality starts in which he one-hit the Brewers and followed that up by beating these same Cardinals after allowing just two runs in six frames. Mendoza was unimpressive in five earlier starts and just as unimpressive over his career with a 1.68 WHIP, a .304 BAA and a 6.40 ERA. His 28 K/28 BB in 55.2 IP and 5.85 xERA almost assures us that he’s not about to wow anyone, especially a team that just faced him. Adam Wainwright has not yet regained his ace-like surface stats in his return from Tommy John surgery (4.46 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) but his skills have been elite. He’s whiffed 60 batters in 85 frames while walking just 26. He also has an outstanding 53% groundball rate. Wainright has been hurt by a 65% strand rate but has allowed two runs or less in five of his past seven. Not many pitchers in either league have been better than Wainright recently and he faces a Royals lineup that is ranked 28th out of 30 teams in runs scored. Play: St. Louis -1½ +120 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +108 over BALTIMORE

Wei-Yin Chen is 7-2 with a 3.36 ERA and that’s why surface stats and W/L record can lead us astray. Few pitchers have outperformed their skills as much as Chen has. Behind his 3.36 ERA and 1.32 WHIP are some underwhelming skills that include an average strikeout rate, a troublesome 39% groundball rate, a high batting average against with men on base, a 21% line-drive rate and an xERA of 4.47. Baltimore is scuffling in June and will face Edwin Jackson. In 13 starts, Jackson has three wins. That’s not just, as he has a skills supported 3.02 ERA. Jackson is durable, reliable and has a solid xERA history. We get the better team, the better pitcher and a price tag and that certainly fits our criteria. Play: Washington +108 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Spain/ France Over 2

There is a team chemistry issue with France after their demoralizing loss to Sweden last game. Coach Laurent Blanc made a mistake when he softened his lineup and were lucky to only lose 2-0 to the Swedes. Momentum is a wonderful thing when you have it and now France has to try and get it back against this pre-tournament favorite. As for Spain, their last outing was not all that convincing either, as they were lucky to escape with a late winner to bounce Croatia. Both teams will play better today. France will bolster their roster and Spain is famous for stepping up in big games. As a result, we expect both teams to at least score once allowing us to sit back and free roll on the winning goal. Play: Spain/France over 2 -112 (Risking 2 units to win 1.78).

Jimmy Boyd

Detroit Tigers -141

The Tigers get the call as our free play given the advantage they have on the mound with Scherzer. They have won 6 of his last 8 starts overall and 4 of his last 5 on the road. He has allowed 3 earned runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. Pittsburgh's Lincoln hasn't been nearly as sharp. He's 0-2 with an ERA of 10.03 over his last 3 starts. The Tigers went down yesterday but are an impressive 36-16 in their last 52 games following a loss. They are also 68-27 in their last 95 interleague games as a favorite while the Pirates are 39-86 in their last 125 interleague games as an underdog. Look for Detroit to come out on top behind a strong outing from Scherzer.

Jeff Alexander

Seattle Mariners -136

Look for Seattle to get the win tonight behind a dominant performance from ace Felix Hernandez. He is coming off a gem against San Francisco last game and has been very effective at pitcher-friendly Petco. In fact, the Mariners are 4-0 all-time in his starts at Petco, and he hasn't allowed more the 3 earned runs in any of those. The Mariners are 13-5 in his last 18 interleague starts and 6-1 in his last 7 starts as a road favorite. The Padres took Game 1 but are 2-7 in their last 9 games following a win, 2-7 in their last 9 in the 2nd game of a series and 1-5 in their last 6 home games. Take Seattle.

Dave Price

St. Louis Cardinals -140

Kansas City is just 11-21 at home on the season, and it will have a difficult time improving on that mark against Wainwright. The Cardinals are an impressive 25-11 in Wainwright's last 36 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Cards have also won 20 of their last 27 in Kansas City. We'll take the Red Birds.

Hollywood Sports

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angles (39-32) have won 14 of their last 16 games after allowing at least five runs in their last game as they did last night with their 8-5 victory over the Dodgers. The Angels have also won a decisive 12 of their last 16 games when favored in the -110 to -150 price range. They send out Ervin Santana here who comes off a complete game 1-hitter against Arizona. For the season, the veteran right-hander has struggled with his 4-7 record along with a 5.16 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP. But Santana has been more effective at home this season where he sports a 1.13 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .206 which is much better than his 1.57 WHIP and .283 opponent's batting average when on the road. The Angels have won 4 of their last 5 games in Interleague play with Santana on the mound. They also have won 4 of their last 5 games when Santana was pitching after a game where they scored at least five runs. The Dodgers (42-29) have lost 4 of their last 5 games after scoring at least five runs themselves. They counter with Chris Capuano who is 8-2 with a 2.71 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP this season. The lefty knuckleballer has been outstanding at home this year where he owns a 1.57 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. But Capuano sees these numbers rise to a 4.02 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP when on the road. The Dodgers have lost 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 price range. Given these compelling complementary team trends, it is likely that the Angels proclivity to win games after allowing at least five runs will continue tonight. Take the money line with the Angels while listing both starting pitchers Ervin Santana and Chris Capuano.

CHUCK O'BRIEN

My free winner tonight is going to be on the Pittsburgh Pirates, as they continue to roll and impress, by knocking off the visiting Detroit Tigers. And even though I'm not going to list pitchers I'd be remiss if I didn't say Pittsburgh's Brad Lincoln is the better choice over Detroit's Max Scherzer.

Seriously though, coming into this weekend the Tigers had won their last four series, all against National League opponents. But last night they run into a buzzsaw, as the Pirates won 4-1 with ease, thanks to an efficient and manufacturing lineup, and veteran starter A.J. Burnett. Detroit was 8-4 in its last 12 games and had gained 3-1/2 games in the American League Central, however, the Pirates are playing their best baseball.

And I'm going to count on that tonight, and bank on the Bucs' winning ways to continue. The Pirates have now won 11 of their last 13 home games and 10 of their last 12 Interleague games at PNC Park.

And make note, Pittsburgh's home record of 22-12 is the second best in the Major Leagues, just behind the Dodgers, who have a 24-12 mark at Chavez Ravine.

And since Scherzer will be making his second start of the season against the Pirates, I'm guessing their lineup is going to get to him quicker and easier thanks to the familiarity factor.

Though I know Lincoln's recent starts have been shady, but I also know the Pirates are hoping to have him find a comfort zone as a starter after being an early-season hit out of the bullpen. This is the right spot for him to prove his worth.

1♦ PITTSBURGH

MATT RIVERS

Saturday's free play winner is to lay it with the Yankees on the road as the "Subway Series" continues with the Mets.

The Mets held on for the 6-4 win last night, as Terry Collins' team made it four straight wins, while the Yankees have now followed their ten game winning streak with losses in each of their last three.

The Yanks will send their (with all due respect to CC Sabathia) stopper to the mound tonight, as Ivan Nova opposes Chris Young.

Nova is on a five game winning streak, and has allowed just two earned runs his last 22-plus innings pitched. For the season, Nova is 9-2 including a perfect 6-0 on the road, while the Yankees are 11-2 for the year when Nova takes the mound.

Chris Young is making his fourth start of the month, and just his fourth start all season. With the Yankees having won 7 of the last 9 interleague showdowns with the Mets, I will lay the road wood and go with the Yanks to end their three game losing streak tonight at the expense of Young and the Mets.

3♦ N.Y. YANKEES