Info Plays
3* on Florida Marlins -190
Reasons the Marlins win:
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1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (SAN DIEGO) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 62-6 ML System hitting 91.2% over the last 5 seasons.
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2.) Josh Johnson is 5-1 with a 0.61 ERA over his last 8 starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 59 innings pitched. Enough said. Bet the Marlins at home.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers +111
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I'll fade Kenshin Kawakami as the righty continues to struggle for the Atlanta Braves. He is really the one weak link in their rotation, but for whatever reason the Braves have not elected to send him down to the minors yet. Kawakami is WINLESS IN 14 STARTS this year, you heard that right folks. The righty is 0-9 with a 4.78 ERA and 1.460 WHIP this season. No question the wrong team is favored in this one with Kawakami on the bump.
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Max Scherzer has been solid of late, going 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.033 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has 67 K's in 73 innings this year, including 24 strikeouts over his last 3 starts totaling 20.1 innings pitched. The Tigers are 43-19 against the money line after scoring 2 runs or less over the last 2 seasons, and after a tough showing last night offensively, I look for Detroit to explode for at least 6 runs in this one. Detroit is 63-29 in their last 92 interleague games, serving as one of the most dominant teams in interleague play over the last few seasons. The Tigers have won 5 of their last 6 meetings with Atlanta. Roll with the Tigers Saturday at a solid price.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -119
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Things are real ugly for the Cubs right now and I look for the White Sox, who have won 10 in a row, to continue their dominance of the North Siders. Silva has been one of the few bright spots for the Cubs, but we can't expect him to receive much run support when you consider that the Cubs are averaging only 3.7 runs per game on the road this season. Plus, he faces strong opposition in Garcia, who is 4-0 (5-0 on the money line) lifetime against the Cubs with an ERA of 1.25. It is also worth noting that Silva is only 4-11 (5-13 on the money line) in his career against the Sox with an ERA of 5.50. I'll take the White hot White Sox here.
Greg Shaker
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Indians / Reds Over 9.5
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I had these two teams going OVER the total last night and I am going to use my "Rocket Science" Brain to play it again this evening. I am also not going to bore you with a bunch of useless facts about why. The fact is this park has been OVER worthy for a long time and more so this year due to the Reds performing better offensively. Both teams are hitting the ball well right now, both are in their Best Hitting Posture, the weather pattern is a good one for tonight, and let's face it, we don't have Cy Young Material on the mound for either team tonight. We also have a Cleveland thrower who is not capable of going deep into many games, and then their is the Indians Bullpen, which much less than average, and on the road, is much worse than horrible. Summertime is here and some of these low totals we have been seeing earlier in the year are going to swing the other way. Hot and Sticky conditions reek havoc with Mound Dwellers and they also make the Ball Fly Better. I do think the ball will fly a lot tonight and my MLB Model agrees with that summation, saying OVER 9.5 will hit just over 56.8% of the time. That's longterm profit and that is what we want.
JR O'Donnell
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BAL / WAS Over 9.5
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The line open at 9 and was quickly pushed up to 9.5. We are excited about the Deep ticket Saturday as the Winning Jr. O express has a nice "Same Game" parlay going tonight and we will $$$$ knock out Vegas early as the Nats will feast on a hurler here that sports a 10+ERA the last few starts. Oh Boy will Bergesen surrender the runs to a hungry Washington Nats club today. Looking at Hernandez,he did have a solid outing vs. the Kc. Royals last outing, but today the O's will hit him hard.
SPORTS WAGERS
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PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.26 over Toronto
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The Jays are the “home team” here. Yeah, ok. This is a rare opportunity to play the true home team getting all nine at bats but chances are it won’t matter. The Jays are second last in the majors in team BA, just two lousy points ahead of the Astros. Over its last 20 games, the Jays are dead last with a team BA of .217, 14 points worse than the Mariners and 25 points worse than the Astros. The Jays have also lost four of its last five games and they’ve been shutout in two of its last three. The Jays numbers are even worse against lefties and they’ll face one here in Cole Hamels. Hamels is not pitching good, he’s pitching great. He’s gone nine straight starts without allowing more than three earned runs in any of them. That includes two games against the Red Sox, not to mention games in Minnesota, at New York against the Mets, at Atlanta and three games at home in this very difficult hitter’s park. Hamels has a BAA in June of .183 and overall he’s struck out 85 batters in 86.1 innings. Shaun Marcum is having a good year but he’s on the verge of an implosion. His last two games he threw against San Fran and San Diego and didn’t look sharp but got by. Previously, he allowed 10 hits in both back-to-back games against the Rays. In four June starts his BAA is .300 and after missing all of last year, his arm is beginning to show real signs of wear and tear. He looked exhausted in his last start against the Giants in which he threw 102 pitches in five innings. The Phillies offense has woke up big time with 27 runs in its last three games and that’s big time bad news for Marcum. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
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Colorado +1.22 over L.A. ANGELS
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Joe Saunders has one foot in the grave and it’s not going to be long before we never see him again. There's just no good news here in terms of his skills, as almost every indicator is in freefall. Following his pre-season trend to a "T," his control and ability to get batters out has gotten simultaneously worse. He's walked as many batters as he’s struck out. Saunders xERA has finally imploded to well over the 5.00 mark and hit rate is not to blame. Going into 2010, Saunders at least had a strong groundball profile. That has evaporated in the first three months, as line-drive and FB rates have risen. Saunders is 1-6 at home with an ERA of 6.75 and behind him is a bullpen that is among the worst in the business. Given a list of all the pitchers in the majors to lay juice with, Joe Saunders would be very near the bottom of that list. Aaron Cook will not dazzle anyone but he keeps the ball down and usually keeps the Rocks in the game. Cook has allowed three runs or less in four of his last five starts and is coming off a sweet, seven-inning, three hit gem against the Brew Crew. Anyway, this is more about playing against Saunders than anything else, as his skills and confidence continue to deteriorate at a high pace. Play: Colorado +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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Detroit +1.11 over ATLANTA
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Sometimes, that little trip back to the minors works wonders. After a horrible first eight starts punched his ticket back to Triple-A, Max Scherzer has been lights-out upon his recall at the end of May. Though a small sample size applies, the Scherzer sign says "buy". Just before his demotion, he wasn’t striking out many. He then fanned a cool 14 in his first start back, and has barely slowed down since. The sparkling numbers since 5/30 show the results. But it's not all Ks. His control has remained consistent; hr/9 has been reined back in and a normalized stand % has led this resurgence. Scherzer’s xERA and BPV since 5/30 are numbers to get excited about again. Scherzer won't be able to maintain this pace, but with 4 PQS-dominant scores in his last five starts, his rebirth looks legit. The best news? That inflated 5.67 year-to-date ERA make Scherzer a very undervalued pitcher and thus we get a bigger take-back than we should. Young pitchers are never a sure thing, but Scherzer's trends and history showcase his stuff that points positive for the balance of 2010. Kenshin Kawakami remains winless through nine decisions. His 4.67 xERA is nearly identical to the 4.78 ERA, as his skills remain pedestrian at best. Kawakami is heading to the bullpen as soon as Jair Jurrjens returns and he can’t wait to get there. Play: Detroit +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
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Minnesota +1.22 over NY METS
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It's bad enough that Johan Santana had to respond this week to a report that he was accused of sexual battery in October 2009. Now, despite an ERA in the low 3.00's, Santana's 2010 performance is not nearly as good as the surface stats suggest. As the saying goes, "Where there's smoke there's fire". Lest we forget, Santana did have elbow surgery last season (bone chips), which was a big red flag entering the 2010 season. Last season's surgery isn't the only red flag surrounding Santana. That ERA (3.31) is still pretty sexy until you look at the xERA hiding behind it (4.69). Santana’s strikeout rate is decreasing while his walks are increasing. In fact, over his last three games he’s walked seven and struck out just five. Two of those three games were against the Indians and Padres. Furthermore, he allowed four runs in all three of those aforementioned games. Now he’ll pitch with less confidence and as mentioned earlier, where there’s smoke there’s fire. Meanwhile, Carl Pavano has been lights out for weeks. He’s coming off a gem against the Phillies and he’s breezing through line-ups. In fact, Pavano has gone at least seven full innings in six straight games and only twice during that stretch has he threw more than 100 pitches. Pavano has pinpoint control as evidenced by his 14 walks issued in 96.1 frames. The Mets are hot and they’re tough to beat these days but Santana’s charmed life is on the verge of a meltdown and chances are good it starts right here. Play: Minnesota +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
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KANSAS CITY +1.15 over St. Louis
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Blake Hawksworth (45 BPV, -0- PQS) makes his second start of the season in his twenty-third appearance. Hawksworth's earlier start ended in disaster in which he allowed six earned runs in four innings. While Hawksworth has been hurt by an inflated 38% hit rate, the skills here are marginal (poor command and a 1.4 hr/9). He gets the start here because the Cardinals have absolutely nobody else to turn to and the fact that this poor reliever is favored as a starter is ludicrous. Throw in the fact that the Cards offense is stuck in neutral and the Royals are even more appealing. Yeah, Kyle Davies is going through a rough stretch and he’s never going to be anything but a four or five starter but at least he’s a starter. Furthermore, the Royals are still leading the majors with a .280 batting average and while they’re not scoring as much, they’re still getting tons of hits but just not stringing them together. They’re on the verge of an outburst and it could very well occur here. Play: Kansas City +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Frank Jordan
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Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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Johan Santana is playing his former team for the first time today as the Mets and Twins square off in the second game of two from Citi Field. The Mets are 27-11 this year at home one of the best in the league and are coming off a win last night against these same Twins. The match up of Santana and Pavano should be a gem, but with the emotions for Santana running high look for he and the Mets to win easily as Santana is dominant.
Ben Burns
Arizona Diamondbacks @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
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After getting no-hit yesterday, the Rays figure to be in a foul mood this afternoon. With Dave Price on the mound, they also figure to have an excellent shot at bouncing back with a victory.
Price checks in with at 10-3 with a stellar 2.45 ERA. He's been particularly dominant at home. He's gone 4-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 1.056 WHIP here.
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By comparison, Kennedy comes in at 2-4 (team is 2-7) with a 4.50 ERA and 1.352, in nine road starts.
Kennedy is supported by an Arizona bullpen which has a 7.86 ERA and 1.979 WHIP on the road. Price is supported by a Tampa bullpen that has a 3.11 ERA and 1.119 WHIP.
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While Price will have the advantage of starting against Arizona for the first time, note that Kennedy is 1-2 with a terrible 6.64 ERA in four starts vs. Tampa Bay.
The Diamondbacks are an awful 11-27 on the road. They're also a money-burning 5-10 (-5.6) their last 15 vs. southpaw starters.
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The Rays are 133-74 (+23.6) at home the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 12-4 (+3.6) record when listed as home favorites in the -200 to -225 range. Consider laying the wood.
Scott Rickenbach
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Padres @ Marlins
PICK: Under
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The Padres are 9-2 to the under in Saturday games this season. San Diego won 3-0 yesterday and they are 6-1 to the under this season when they shut out their opponent in their prior game. Overall, on the road this season, the Padres are an amazing 22-9 to the under. As for the Marlins, they are 12-5 to the under the last three seasons when they were shut out in their prior game. Also, when at home with a total of 7 or less, Florida is 3-0 to the under this season. The Marlins have stayed under the total in EACH of Josh Johnson’s last five starts. The Padres have stayed under the total in 8 of Jon Garland’s last 12 starts.
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San Diego is 5-2 to the under in Garland’s road starts this season. Also, the Padres are 6-3 to the under in Garland’s night starts this season. Johnson has allowed an amazing total of just four earned runs in his last eight starts and those outings have spanned 57 innings. That means Johnson has a 0.63 ERA in his last eight starts! Garland’s numbers certainly have not been as insanely impressive as those but do note that he’s 3-1 in five career starts against the Marlins and he’s held them to a .218 batting average while compiling a 2.14 ERA. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Florida on Saturday evening.
Black Widow
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1* on Boston Red Sox -149
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Good bounce-back spot here for the Red Sox who have a big edge on the mound with Clay Buchholz. Buchholz is 10-4 with a 2.47 ERA and 1.242 WHIP this season, and on the road he's 5-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. This guy has been rock-solid all year for the Red Sox and he has been their most consistent starter. Plus, Boston has been killing left-handed pitching, hitting .286 while scoring 6.1 runs/game against lefty starters. The Red Sox are 10-2 in their last 12 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. The Red Sox are 59-18 in their last 77 interleague games as a favorite. Boston is 9-1 in Buchholz's last 10 road starts. Take the Red Sox on the Money Line.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Padres/Marlins UNDER 7
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Johnson has faced the Padres twice in his career, and he is carrying an ERA of just 0.64 in those two starts. He has already faced the Pads once this season, throwing a complete-game 3-hitter. Garland has had a lot of success against the Marlins, carrying a 2.14 career ERA against them in 5 starts. When he faced the Fish earlier this season, he held them to just 1 run on 3 hits in 6 innings of work. With as dominant as both of these pitchers have been in this matchup, I'll take the Under here.
Nelly
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Detroit + over Atlanta
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The Braves are inflated home favorites in today's match-up based on an incredible home field record but they have faced a weaker home schedule than most teams at this point. Atlanta has also had virtually no success behind Kenshin Kawakami this season. The Braves are 4-10 when Kawakami starts and while he likely deserves better than his 0-9 record he does have a 4.66 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP in home games. Max Scherzer has made his share of poor starts this season but after being removed from the rotation he has returned with much better results. Scherzer has allowed three or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts and he has 41 strikeouts in that span of only 31 innings. Detroit is 3-2 in those games and Scherzer has been at his best in day games this season. Detroit features a slightly stronger bullpen than Atlanta and the offense for the Tigers has been more productive of late, batting .285 in the last ten games compared with just .259 for Atlanta.
WUNDERDOG
Game: St. Louis at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City +110
The Cardinals have not done well on the road this season, and with last night's loss to the Royals, they dropped to 17-21 on the season. They are also not playing good baseball right now at 7-10 in their last 17 games. The offense has gone south, and over their last 15 games, they have failed to put up more than 2 runs seven times. They now must dig into the bullpen and call on Blake Hawksworth to fill a starting role. He was summoned from the pen once this year to start and allowed 6 runs, lasting just four innings. The Royals hit very well and have won four of their last five at home vs. a righthander, so I like them in this one.
INSIDER ANGLES
ARIZONA vs. TAMPA
The Tampa Bat Rays were no-hit by Edwin Jackson of the Arizona Diamondbacks last night, and the Snakes did not exactly light up the scoreboard either, winning 1-0. While we do not foresee another no-hitter on Saturday, we do expect another low scoring affair.
Southpaw Davis Price is quickly developing into one of the best pitchers in the American League for the Rays, as he is 10-3 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 91.2 innings. Incredibly, Price has allowed three earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts with 11 official Quality Starts. The young southpaw has never faced Arizona before, which is almost always to the pitcher’s advantage, and he is catching a Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 13th out of 16 National League teams in batting.
Arizona is starting Ian Kennedy, who may possibly be pitching the best ball on the staff this season despite his 3-5 record. Kennedy has a nice 3.60 ERA and a very good 1.18 WHIP in 95 innings with 82 strikeouts against 31 walks. Kennedy has allowed three earned runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts and in 12 of his 15 starts overall.
Kennedy is also catching Tampa Bay at the perfect time, as the Rays lineup had averaged 3.80 runs per game with a pathetic .229 team batting average in the last 10 games entering last night, and both of those already bad figures got worse following the no-hotter.
Look for both offenses to continue to struggle in this Saturday late afternoon affair.
Pick: Diamondbacks / Rays Under 8.5
Dwayne Bryant
St. Louis -120
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Strictly a play against Kyle Davies, who has pitched very poorly in his last five starts. Here are the numbers: 23 IP, 25 ER, 33 H, 18 BB. His 13/18 K/BB ratio and 2+ baserunners per inning says it all. The Cards, who have won seven of the last nine meetings dating back to '08, should be able to get the bats going and score some runs today against Davies. Several key St. Louis hitters have had success against Davies, including Ludwick (3-for-6 with a 2B & HR), Pujols (3-for-6), Holliday (2-for-7 with a 2B & HR), Rasmus (2-for-4), and Schumaker (4-for-11).
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I realize Blake Hawksworth is nothing special either, but the Royals have never faced him. That should give him the edge at least early in the game. With Davies struggling like he is and the Cards past success against him, I expect to see the Cards slug out a win today. Take St. Louis over KC/Davies.