Dan Bebe
MIL (-146) vs SEA
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I will admit, we missed the best price on this one, and that's why it got downgraded just a tad.
But I'm feeling positively stubborn today, and so we're going to back a Brewers team that is absolutely hitting the snot out of the ball. The Brewers are averaging over 6 runs per game over their last 6 games. They're batting nearly .300 as a team over that same stretch, and it's pretty tough to keep a team hitting .300 from scoring some runs.
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Randy Wolf has allowed just 3 hits in each of his last 2 starts, each going 7 innings. His stuff is filthy right now, and we're going to ride that wave.
Doug Fister is coming back from injury, and hasn't started since May 31. These low-profile returns from injury generally involve some rust, rather than the adrenaline that seems to accompany a starter coming back from a very, very long layoff. I expect Fister to give up a couple homers to the power-hitting Brew-Crew, and what we've also seen lately is that the Brewers pen is holding up much better.
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I know the price is somewhat steep, but to me, this game is almost just a formality.
Sean Murphy
Cleveland Indians @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Cincinnati Reds
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We're able to play the Cincinnati Reds at a discount price on Saturday, due in large part to Sam LeCure's recent struggles. Don't put too much stock in his recent negative results. I'll get to that in a bit.
The Indians have dropped six games in a row on this road trip, falling to 14-26 away from home this season. They've won just once since June 13th, and enter tonight's contest having allowed 29 runs over their last three games.
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To make matters worse for the Indians, they may have to go without their standout rookie, Carlos Santana. He jammed his thumb in last night's loss (he homered in the game) and is listed as questionable on Saturday.
The Reds have once again found their way, notching four straight victories to move eight games over .500 on the season. They've won back-to-back games at home, outscoring the opposition 17-4. That comes on the heels of a three-game home losing streak.
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Justin Masterson gets the nod for the visiting Indians on Saturday. He's been wildly inconsistent this season. He's coming off a solid outing in which he allowed only five hits and two earned runs while striking out seven and walking one over six innings, but that came against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Two starts back he was lit up for 10 hits and six earned runs over seven innings of work against the Mets.
Masterson has struggled on the road this season, going 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in seven starts. His strikeout numbers have been impressive, with 70 in 81 1/3 innings pitched, however opponents are hitting a lofty .287 against him.
The current Reds roster is hitting just .154 but slugging .423 in 26 career at-bats against Masterson. Keep in mind, only Orlando Cabrera has more than three at-bats against him.
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As I mentioned, Sam LeCure will start for the Reds tonight. He owns just one victory in five starts, but it's worth noting that he's been matched up against some of the best, Zack Greinke, Matt Cain, Chris Carpenter, and Felix Hernandez over his last four outings.
Despite allowing five earned runs on eight hits over six innings in his last start against the Mariners, there were some positives to take away. LeCure set a career-low with just one walk in the loss. He's worked at least six innings in each of his last three starts. Thanks to Aaron Harang's seven-inning effort last night, the Reds bullpen is in excellent shape entering tonight's game.
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There's a wide gap between these two clubs, and it's certainly not represented in the current line. This price has too much to do with the starting pitching matchup in my opinion. Look for the Reds to keep rolling with another home win. Take Cincinnati.
Craig Trapp
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Indians vs. Reds
Play: Over 9½
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The Indians were hoping that Masterson would turn in to a young superstar on the mound. That has not happened in fact since last years trade he has been downright horrible. Earlier this month he had two good starts but since then the last two have been back to his usual (13 innings allowing 8 runs). Opposing him today the Reds turn to young Rookie LeCure that might be making his last start as Bailey might be ready before his next scheduled start. Love playing a pitcher that has to perform and Lecure is in that position. He does not have to be great as the Reds hitters at home will keep them in the game. In fact the Reds have won 4 in a row scoring an average of 6 runs per game over that stretch. Reds hitters are salivating to come to the plate against the very bad Masterson. Look for a high scoring game as the Reds win going away.
Sac Lawson
WAS (-117) vs BAL
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While it's definitely tough to back the Nationals on the road, it's even tougher to get behind this Baltimore Orioles squad. This is a solid rivalry, and while aesthetically this is indeed a home game for the O's, the crowd should be semi-partisan. That being said, I just have a very hard time not backing the better bullpen and the better starter, whether they're on the road or not. At this low number, a reverse move would not have been shocking, and probably would have kept me off this side. But the line has been pretty stable, and that's enough for me to stick with this Nationals side.
Livan had a bump in the road two starts back, but the guy has been very solid aside from that one single start. His 4.23 road ERA is mediocre, but once again, inflated due to that 8 earned run start. I do like Livan to keep the O's under 4 runs, and with how Bergeson has struggled this season, I do expect the Nats to score 4 or more.
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We'll take the bullpen advantage, and the team that knows how to win games late for 1 unit!
CWS (-125) vs CHC
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Silva has definitely been a surprise this season, but he has lost his last two games. On top of that, he missed his last start due to a hamstring injury. Silva is a big dude, and health is always an issue with this guy. I'm not 100% confident that he's coming into this game at full health, and he'll need to be absolutely sharp as hell to top this red hot White Sox team.
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Garcia has been very very solid on the Sox side of things. He simply goes out and limits the damage, and gives his team a chance to win every single time he's on the mound. With the lack of run support that the Cubs have given Silva lately, I do expect Garcia to keep up his solid run.
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On top of the starters, we've definitely got a bullpen edge with the White Sox, and there is definitely nothing wrong with backing a team that has won 14 of their last 15 games, and have home field advantage in a rivalry game. Sox are the play here. 1 unit!