Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 29

DUNKEL INDEX

WNBA

Phoenix at Connecticut
The Mercury look to build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games at Connecticut. Phoenix is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mercury favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2)

Game 651-652: Phoenix at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 111.211; Connecticut 105.784
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 169
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Under

Game 653-654: Los Angeles at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 119.051; Chicago 113.529
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5 1/2; 164
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 160
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+2 1/2); Over

CFL

Saskatchewan at Edmonton
The Roughriders look to take advantage of an Edmonton team that is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in Week 1. Saskatchewan is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Roughriders favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1 1/2)

Game 127-128: Saskatchewan at Edmonton (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Saskatchewan 110.756; Edmonton 109.624
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 1; 53
Vegas Line: Edmonton by 1 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (+1 1/2); Over

Bruce Marshall

Detroit vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay

Insiders are talking about Justin Verlander losing some velocity on his fastball this season, down 2-4 MPH into the low 90s, which might be one explanation why the Tiger ace is having some problems lately. Especially in his last two starts when rocked for 14 hits and 9 earned runs, not to mention 7 walks, in just 10 innings of work. Verlander also had his problems last season vs. Tampa Bay when posting an 0-2 mark and 5.02 ERA vs. the Rays. Meanwhile, they're getting excited about the latest live arm to progress through the Tampa Bay system, as Saturday starter Chris Archer flashed some real upside in his last outing when flustering the Yankees last Sunday, allowing just 6 hits and one run in six innings of work as Tampa Bay won. 3-1.

Bryan Power

Milwaukee vs. Pittsburgh
Pick: Pittsburgh

I used the Pirates here yesterday and why not come back w/ them here? They have won seven straight and with St. Louis losing yesterday, they (yes the Pittsburgh Pirates) have the best record in all of baseball! Milwaukee will not present much of a challenge today....

With Francisco Liriano pitching today for the Bucs, I don't see any way the Brew Crew has a chance. Liriano has a 2.30 ERA in nine starts. He has allowed two runs or less in six of those starts, one of them coming against Milwaukee. That was back on May 16th. Since that time, little has changed with the Brewers. They have lost four in a row coming into today and are a dismal 7-21 vs. lefties this season. They are also a very poor road team, owning an 18-42 record as an underdog away from home since the start of last season.

The Pirates are one of MLB's best home teams at 26-13 for the year. They are averaging seven runs per game during the seven-game win streak. They have hit 14 home runs. They have beaten Milwaukee seven of nine times. The Brewers have been outscored 22-9 during their own four-game skid. These are two teams heading in very opposite directions right now.

Marc Lawrence

Washington vs. NY Mets
Pick: NY Mets

When New York's Dillon Gee toes the slab under the sun at Citi Field against Washington today he will do so knowing his 3-12 ERA at home this season is nearly three runs per game better than his 6.02 road ERA. With the Nationals a dizzy 12-17 in day games this season, look for Gee to improve to 6-3 in his career team starts in this series here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Mets.

Jesse Schule

Toronto vs. Boston
Pick: Toronto

The Jays have lost both games in their series at Fenway so far, and they pick things up Saturday afternoon looking to turn things around in Game 3. The offense has put nine runs on the board in the first two games against the Red Sox, but their pitching staff hasn't been getting it done.

Esmil Rogers will toe the rubber for Toronto in this game, and he'll try to give the Jays another quality start. Rogers (3-3, 3.46 ERA) allowed four runs on seven hits, getting taken out of the park three times in a loss to Tampa Bay in his last start. That was his only loss of the season as a starter though, the Jays have won four of his five starts. The kid can pitch, he recorded consecutive wins in a home and home series with the Rangers earlier in June.

The Red Sox hand the ball to Felix Doubront, who is winless in his last four starts. The 25 year old allowed three runs on four hits, while walking four over five innings in a loss to the Tigers his last time out. He hasn't had much success in afternoon games this season, all four of his wins have come under the lights, while he's winless in three day games.

The Jays have had his number in previous meetings, Doubront is 2-2 with a 5.40 ERA versus Toronto since 2010, but he's 0-2 at Fenway. Edwin Encarnacion is 5-for-12 with a home run, but Jose Reyes has really owned the left-hander, going 6-for-9 with a homer and two RBIs lifetime.

The Jays are due for a breakout game, and this matchup will present them with an excellent chance to get a win at Fenway today.

Art Aronson

San Diego vs. Miami
Pick: Under

Eric Stults (6-5, 3.20 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; dating back to last season the southpaw has posted a very respectable 3.08 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP and 5.5 K's spanning his last 195 2/3's innings of work. Stults gave up two runs off seven hits over seven frames in a no-decision to the Phillies on Monday. He'll be throwing opposite Jacob Turner (1-0, 1.97 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits with a walk over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Giants on Saturday, a game which his team would go on to win 2-1 in 11 frames. The 22-year old has allowed three earned runs or fewer in each of his five starts, but is just 1-0 to show for his overall stellar performance; Turner, like the rest of his rotation, has been the victim of poor run support, receiving just 10 over his last four starts. Both starters come in with considerable momentum and I believe that the table is set for them to battle into the latter frames; as a result, I'll recommend a second look at the "under" in this one.

Dave Price

Chicago Cubs -109

The Cubbies have the edge on the mound with Jeff Samardzija. The Cubs are 3-0 in his last three starts with wins over Cincinnati and St. Louis during this stretch. The big right-hander has done his best work on the road where he has an ERA of 2.73. Also, the Cubs are 6-2 in Samardzija's last 8 starts as a favorite. Seattle's Aaron Harang is just 3-7 with an ERA of 5.29 in 12 starts this season. The Mariners are 1-5 in his last 6 starts as an underdog. While we successfully backed the Mariners on the premium side last night, the Cubs have been the better investment in interleague play. They are 8-3 in their last 11 interleague games while the Mariners are 4-9 in their last 13 interleague home games and 0-6 in their last 6 interleague games as an underdog. Take Chicago.

Rob Vinciletti

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

Boston has won 5 of 6 at home when the posted total is 10 or higher and 4 straight overall. They have cooled down a Toronto team that has lost 4 of 5 games following their 11 game win streak. We also have another out of solid MLB Power Systems that apply to this game as we Play on certain home teams with a total that is 10 or higher and off a home favored win by 2 or more runs while scoring 5 or more runs and taking on a team like Toronto that is off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs, while still scoring 5 or more in the loss. The Jays have E. Rogers going and he is a flame thrower who has late movement on an above average fast ball. He will make is first start here at Fenway and that could spell trouble for Toronto against a free swinging Boston team. The Red Sod will counter with Doubront and he has won 4 of 5 with a solid 2.97 era here at home. Look for Boston to take Down Toronto once again here today.

Alex Smart

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Doubront the BoSox starter today is winless in his career against Toronto at Fenway Park, posting a 6.75 ERA in five outings, two of them starts.

Jeffrey Brandes

Washington Nationals vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets -1½ +180

Pitchers:
WASHINGTON NATIONALS: TAYLOR JORDEN (R) ERA: --- W/L: 0-0
NEW YORK METS: DILLON GEE (R) ERA: 4.82 W/L: 5-7

TAYLOR JORDEN started the season with Class A Potomac and was recently with Double-A Harrisburg, having gone a combined 9-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 14 starts between the two clubs this season. He makes his major league debut today. With the Harrisburg Senators, Jordan was 7-0 with a 0.83 ERA and 43 strikeouts in nine games.

DILLON GEE gave up six runs against the Phillies in his last start. However, he is 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA in eight career starts against Washington. The last time he faced the Nationals, he held them to one run in seven innings. Washington has strung together more than two wins once all month.

Jim Feist

Chicago at Seattle
Pick: Under

Safeco is a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of weak offenses meet here. The Cubs are 19th in runs scored and the under is 10-4-1 in the Cubs last 15 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. They have hard throwing Jeff Samardzija (3.39 ERA) going, who has 115 strikeouts in 106 innings and only 93 hits allowed. He faces a popgun Seattle offense that is 26th in runs scored, 25th in on base percentage and 24th in slugging. When these teams meet the under is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings, including 5-1 under the total in the last 6 meetings in Seattle. Play the Cubs/Mariners under the total.

Brad Wilton

Saturday's comp play comes on the Phillies and the Dodgers game, as I expect the Phillies recent trend of making their way Over the total will come to a stop tonight when Cliff Lee and Hyun-Jin Ryu go at it in a battle of southpaws from Chavez Ravine.

Lee has been the one bright spot in the Philadelphia rotation, as he enters this game looking for his 10th win of the season, while sporting a stellar ERA of 2.51.

The lefty is 6-1 on the road this season with a slender 1.92 road ERA, and 7 of his 10 starts away from home this year have ended up holding Under the total.

Ryu has been pretty impressive in his own right, as the rookie sports a season ERA of just 2.85, and he has done his best work at home in Chavez Ravine, going 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA in his starts at Dodger Stadium.

My feeling is the runs will be hard to push across in this one, so play the Phillies and Dodgers to hold Under the total.

2* PHILADELPHIA-L.A. DODGERS UNDER

Brett Atkins

So the Yankees have lost three straight, and after watching ace-pitcher C.C. Sabathia dominate early, collapse late and throw a tantrum in the dugout after losing his 3-0 lead, I have to wonder the mentality of the Bronx Bombers coming into today.

Baltimore is no slouch, as it is, and it can certainly hang with anyone in the division, and with the Orioles in a good position to score a sweep by rolling over the Yankees these last two days of the series, I like my chances with the home team laying a cheap number today.

I won't list the pitchers, though I truly don't mind laying -115 with Zach Britton on the hill, taking on David Phelps. It won't matter who's going for the O's - heck, bring back rookie Kevin Gausman if you like - fact is, the Yankees are struggling and won't recover from last night's meltdown.

3* BALTIMORE

Craig Davis

Today's free play is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland A's after last night's loss is still sitting with them.

The Cardinals send their best pitcher to the hill, Adam Wainwright, to stop the bleeding as they clearly haven't been playing like the best team in the big leagues over their last few series.

Wainwright has been dazzling so far this year, throwing 116 2/3 innings so far and walking only 10 batters. Think about that for a minute!! It's no wonder his ERA is only 2.31 and his WHIP is only 1.06.

He just doesn't allow a lot of base runners because he gets ahead in the count, pounds the strike zone, and then makes batters chase his pitches with two strikes.

Oakland counters with Jarrod Parker, who has been decent this year but is simply not in the class that Wainwright is.

Parker is 6-6 with 97 innings under his belt, and his ERA is now over 4 (4.27) with a WHIP at 1.27. His biggest problem continues to be spotty control at times which gives the opposition too many base runners.

Should be a fun game to watch, but in the end the Cardinals are simply the better team.

3* ST. LOUIS