Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is the Angels to continue their surge at the expense of the Astros.
Los Angeles took the weekend opener last night, as the Halos have now won 10 of their past 15 games, and they have been getting both the pitching (2 runs allowed in the past 13-plus innings), and the hitting (at least 6 runs scored in 6 of their first 8 wins in this stretch).
True, Joe Blanton owns just 1 win this season, but Blanton may find success against the lowly Astros, a team that is now 16-27 in their home park after last night's loss, their 4th in their last 6 games overall.
Jordan Lyles has bested the Angels in both meetings this season, but it is clear Los Angeles is now on top of their game, and getting some wind in their sails.
Have to lay the road juice with the Angels to improve to 11-5 their last 16 games, and 5 in a row overall with the win late today.
4* L.A. ANGELS
Scott Delaney
So, the defending World Series champion Giants are struggling right now, as they're obviously still trying to recover from being swept by their rivals in Los Angeles, where the Dodgers dealt them three in a row, and are now reeling in Colorado.
I'm not going to even talk about the Rockies, as this is more about the downward spiral the Giants are experiencing, as it's getting deeper and deeper. Last night's loss dropped the defending champs to 0-4 on their 10-game trip while falling three games under .500.
Even worse, for tonight's game in particular, over their past 25 innings at Coors Field, the Giants have scored just two runs at the hitter-friendly park. That's sad.
The Giants were held to under four runs for the seventh time in eight games with last night's 4-1 loss to the Rockies. I know this won't last, but until the Giants change my mind, I'm siding against them.
3* COLORADO
Chris Jordan
Alright, so I only want you listing Washington's Taylor Jordan, ranked as the organization's No. 17 prospect by MLB.com. The right-hander, who started the season with Class A Potomac and was recently with Double-A Harrisburg, will be making his MLB debut in the Big Apple, as he steps to the Citi Field mound to face the Mets.
The young right-hander has gone a combined 9-1 with a 1.00 ERA in 14 starts between his two minor-league clubs this season, and has been successful thanks to a devastating arsenal he works well.
The kid can heat up to 95 miles per hour with his fastball, he owns a sinker he will throw whenever, and spots it pretty well out of the zone. He’s also uses a changeup that even has a little split action, it he'll drop it on occasion straight down. He also has a serviceable pitch in a slider. It's quite confusing for batters, and without the true grasp of a scouting report on this kid, I think the Mets will struggle.
Take the Nationals and list Jordan ONLY.
3* WASHINGTON
Will Rogers
San Francisco vs. Colorado
Pick: Colorado
Let's go with the Rockies again Saturday after I used them as yesterday's free pick. The Giants are on a major slide right now and it doesn't help that they're playing at Coors Field this weekend. Rockies starter Jorge De La Rosa has lost only one time at home all season.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Giants Skid - San Francisco has lost five in a row and has been held to two runs or less in four of those losses. This is their second six-game losing streak on the road in the last month. They are now 14-26 away from home this season. Simply put, it's not going well for the reigning World Series champs right now.
2. Jorge De la Rosa - Colorado's starter has been outstanding at home this season with a 6-1 team start record and 3.40 ERA. He's allowed just two runs his last two starts overall, and both were on the road. He also has a 10-4 TSR all-time vs. the Giants with a 3.40 ERA. As a favorite, his TSR is 49-19!
3. X-factor - Matt Cain has not been the same pitcher this year, and it hasn't helped that the team has scored just 14 runs total for him in his last five starts. He has an 8.44 ERA his last three starts here at Coors Field.
John Ryan
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
The simulator shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game. The Pirates have won seven straight games and have taken over the NL Central from the Cardinals and now sport the best record in baseball. With this comes a fully loaded bandwagon of Pirate supporters and we are getting paid very well to assume the risk of taking Milwaukee tonight. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 31-13 mark for 71% winners since 1997. This system has averaged an impressive +132 DOG play as well. Play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MILWAUKEE) with an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and with a tired bullpen after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings. Pirate starter Liriano is just 15-18 (-19.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more since 1997. Hand starts for Milwaukee and in his first start he allowed just 2 hits and 0 ER against Atlanta as the Brewers blanked the Braves 2-0 June 22. I believe Hand will dominate this Pirates lineup tonight. Take the Brewers.
Ben Burns
Detroit vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay +1.5
While it may have appeared a little "obvious" - and I'm not typically on the "obvious" side - yesterday's matchup of undefeated and red hot Scherzer against a rookie who had only thrown 10 big league innings, was just too good to pass up. That was particularly true given the reasonable price one could get the Tigers at.
Today, the Tigers send their "ace" (Verlander) up against another rookie. This time, due largely to Verlander's outstanding history and "big name," the Tigers are an even bigger favorite on the money-line. That's allowed for a very palatable price on run-line. In other words, we can get Tampa at +1.5 runs quite "cheaply."
I believe that's providing us with fair value.
While the Tigers did win his last start, Verlander hasn't been his dominant self for some time now. He's got a 4.76 ERA and 1.529 WHIP his last three starts. Certainly not "Scherzer" numbers.
On the other hand, Archer has arguably proven himself more than yesterday's rookie. He's got five starts under his belt and he's coming off a gem at Yankee Stadium, beating the Yankees by a score of 3-1.
He's also 1-1 with a stellar 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in two home starts - and the lone loss was by a score of 2-1.
Verlander was 0-2 against the Rays last season, giving up four runs in each start. Consider grabbing the +1.5 runs with the home team.
Jimmy Boyd
Tampa Bay Rays +126
There is some value on the Rays playing at home and going up against Justin Verlander. Tampa Bay has been solid at home scoring 4.8 runs per game with a .264 batting average. Chris Archer has a 2.45 ERA at home and with a little run support he should be able to to pick up a win today.
Verlander has not been throwing well recently. In his last three starts he has posted a 4.76 ERA and the Tigers are 1-2 in those games. Detroit has a losing record on the road this season and I don't see them turning things against against this Tampa Bay team that is 10-3 in their last 13 games as a home underdog. Detroit has lost three of their last four games coming into today's matchup.
Jack Jones
Phillies/Dodgers Under 6.5
The books have set the bar too high in this contest tonight. I look for a pitcher's duel between the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers a day after they combined for 17 runs.
Both teams will be sending dominant starters to the mound. Cliff Lee is having a Cy Young-caliber season for Philadelphia, going 9-2 with a 2.51 ERA and 0.964 WHIP through 16 starts, including 6-1 with a 1.92 ERA and 0.867 WHIP in 10 road starts.
Hyun-Jin Ryu is having a tremendous rookie season, going 6-3 with a 2.85 ERA and 1.224 WHIP over 15 starts for the Dodgers. Ryu has been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in eight starts.
Lee has owned the Dodgers in the past, going 3-1 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.739 WHIP in six career starts against Los Angeles. The UNDER is 17-7 in Lee's last 24 starts overall, including 11-3 in his last 14 road starts. The UNDER is 14-6 in Dodgers last 20 games as a home underdog. Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.
Steve Rosen
New York Mets -113
The Mets looked good last night besides there eighth and ninth inning fall. Gee has itched 4 quality starts before his last game. This is a great situational game where Gee will come back to life, especially where he is 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA against the Nats. He has won both games against them this season. The Nats starter Taylor Jordan is making his MLB debut, which shows enough that he will crap out and loose his control. The Mets will have that revenge factor and will win todays game! Get this in fast before the juice goes up !
Game Plan
Arizona/Atlanta Under 7.5
Kennedy and Hudson have both performed well against their respective opponents. KENNEDY is 2-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 2.84 and a WHIP of 1.382. HUDSON is 7-1 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 1.86 and a WHIP of 1.032. Hudson has a 2.22 ERA at home this season.
ARIZONA is 13-3 UNDER (+9.9 Units) against NL East opponents this season. ARIZONA is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games this season. ATLANTA is 76-44 UNDER (+28.9 Units) with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games over the last 2 seasons.
Jeff Alexander
St. Louis Cardinals -113
The Cardinals get the nod as our free play because of how good they've been on the road with Adam Wainwright on the rubber. The Redbirds are 8-0 in Wainwright's last eight road starts, winning these by an average of 4.25 runs. The veteran right-hander has an ERA of just 2.71 on the road this season. Compare that to the 4.88 ERA Jarrod Parker has posted at home. The A's have had success with Parker on the mound. However, they are only 1-4 in his last five home starts as an underdog. The Cards managed just 1 run in yesterday's defeat, but they are 20-3 this season after scoring 2 runs or less and have won by 3.5 runs on average in this situation. Also, they have won 7 of their last 10 versus Oakland.
Andrew Lange
Angels at Astros
Play: Under
Earlier this season most bettors would have considered Joe Blanton and Jordan Lyles to be among the worst in the American League. But over the course of the last month or so they've performed very well and as a bonus still aren't highly regarded in the betting markets. For Blanton, over his last four starts we see a sparkling 34-to-3 K-to-BB ratio and 3.67 ERA. And he has a strong record against Houston this season (2 starts, 14.2 IP, 11 hits, 5 ERs, 17 Ks, 0 BBs). Note that it makes perfect sense that a crafty veteran who throws strikes would have success against Houston’s young and sometimes very impatient lineup. Lyles had a hiccup last time out (5 IP, 5 ERs) but it was at Wrigley Field with the wind blowing out and that game eventually produced 20 runs and 29 hits. Outside of that, Lyles has really come into his own as he just reached the 300 career innings plateau. Two not-so-great bullpens so perhaps a half unit on the 5-inning under and another half unit of the game under is the way to look in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago -107 over SEATTLE
In five June starts, Jeff Samardzija has posted an ERA of 4.54 and he’s precisely the reason you buy skills and not ERA results. Samardzija skills in June were just as good and even better than they were in April and May but he was hurt by an unfortunately low 67% strand rate. Samardzija has some of the best skills in the game the first and second times he goes through lineups, as his BAA of .136 will attest to. Samardzija has 115 K’s in 106 frames, a strong 48% groundball rate, a 3.39 overall ERA with an xERA of 3.15. This is true value in that we get the vastly superior pitcher laying less than a dime against the weak-hitting Mariners.
Aaron Harang has a 5.29 ERA after 65 IP with an xERA of 4.07. Pitching at Safeco, that xERA is not a ringing endorsement. Harang has blown up in four of 12 starts and many other have been of the mediocre variety. One of his problems has been gopheritis with guys on base. He has an ugly 3.1 HR/9 in that scenario and that should come as no surprise given his ugly 29%/47% groundball/fly-ball rates over his past nine starts. Harang’s margin for error is razor thin. His control has improved but with a .278 BAA, he remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game and he usually gets worse as the season progresses.
BALTIMORE -1½ +157 over N.Y. Yankees
You think the oddsmakers erred when they made T.J. MacFarlane a slight favorite over C.C. Sabathia yesterday? The public ate up that line and it cost them when the Yanks could not deliver the knockout punch early. New York scored three runs in the first three innings but it probably should’ve been twice that, which has been a constant problem for the Yanks. New York is seeing BB’s right now and the oddsmakers knew it when they posted that enticing number on Sabathia. Since June 1, the Yankees have a .219 BA and .604 OPS, which are both worst in MLB. Now New York will have to face Zach Britton’s nasty stuff. As long as Britton is throwing strikes he’s almost unhittable. Britton’s stuff is sick. When batters make contact, it’s usually weak or on the ground, as his elite 58% groundball rate and 16% line-drive rate will attest to. His problem has been control but when facing a team that is pressing like the Yanks are, batters tend to help pitchers out by swinging at pitches they have no shot of hitting. Britton has a great chance to thrive here.
David Phelps is a mid-rotation, starting pitcher for an average team. His skills are average, he walks too many batters (30 in 75 innings) and he’s been asked to switch roles for years. Phelps has appeared in 16 games, 10 as a starter. In his career, he’s appeared in 49 games, 21 as a starter. He’s been more consistent since the Yanks told him he’d be starting every fifth day but he’s heard that before. Phelps has an xERA of 4.75 over his last five starts and his fly-ball rate is trending the wrong way. In fact, over his last seven starts, Phelps has produced more fly-ball outs than groundball outs in all of them and that includes a start in Tampa in which he produced just six GB outs against 20 fly-outs. That’s a warning sign and he now has to face an Orioles team that leads the majors in HR’s with 109. Some of those fly-balls will likely go straight over the wall today and it should all add up to another O’s victory, only this time by more than a run.
MIAMI +109 over San Diego
Eric Stults is a popular guy these days. He's seen his ownership in fantasy baseball rise to over 65% in the last two weeks and his 2.23 ERA over the past 30 days is a good reason. Of course fantasy baseball is not wagering but many bettors play fantasy baseball. In other words, Stults’ stock is higher than it’s ever been and like we always say, that’s usually the best time to sell. Eric Stults is a 33-year old soft-tossing lefty. His command is very good but that's all control driven. His 67 K’s in 100 IP isn't that exciting and it's actually a step up from his historical skill level. Stults has an xERA of 4.07 and a slightly below average 42% groundball rate. Stults is simply a very average pitcher that has outpitched his xERA so far due to an extremely low 5% HR/F rate. With a 41% fly-ball profile, some balls will be leaving the yard very soon on this guy and as the chalk on the road, he’s just not very appealing. Stults is overvalued.
Meanwhile, Jacob Turner has gone unnoticed but continues to deliver the goods start after start. Turner has started just five games this season but has allowed two runs or fewer in four of them and that includes starts at Philly and Arizona, both extreme hitters’ parks. Turner has an elite 51%/18%/30% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile. Remember, back in 2011, Turner was the Tigers #1 pitching prospect. Turner has the goods to be a dominant strikeout pitcher but he’s focusing on fastball command and improving his change-up. His fastball sits between 90-95 mph, but he uses his 6’5” height well to pitch on a downward plane. The fastball exhibits nasty late life and he gets hitters to pound it into the ground. Turner operates with a smooth delivery, which enhances the look and feel of his secondary offerings. He has excellent polish and pitchability and knows how to sequence his pitches to keep hitters guessing. The Fish have won three of Turner’s five starts and that probably should be four of five after he threw a gem in his last start in San Fran. Turner’s 1.97 ERA this season comes with full skills support and now is the time to buy low on this potential ace because the window of opportunity is going to close quickly.
SPORTS WAGERS
EDMONTON/Saskatchewan Over 49
The first three games of the CFL season is an indication of just how advanced the offenses are compared to the defenses and we’ll apply that same theory here. All three games went over the number in easy fashion and this one isn’t likely to be any different. The Riders loaded up offensively in the off-season by adding Geroy Simon, Ricky Foley, John Chick and Dwight Anderson, who join this outstanding cast: Weston Dressler, Chris Getzlaf, Rob Bagg, Taj Smith, Greg Carr, Kory Sheets and Jock Sanders. Bagg could be the real sleeper here, as he’s spent most of the last two years on the rack but the reports are he looks quicker, fitter and healthier than ever. Darian Durant had his best season a year ago by completing 64% of his passes and they’ve surrounded him with a bevy of weapons. Saskatchewan also brought in George Cortez as offensive coordinator and he’s put together some of the most creative and best offenses this league has ever seen. Defensively the Riders are supposed to be as good as they were last year, when they ranked second in several defensive categories. That said, every defense in the CFL was expected to be greatly improved but every team has been torched by the opposition’s offense other than the Stamps.
The Eskimos had an off year last season and although they made the playoffs, they bowed out rather quietly and the Eskies subsequently hired Ed Hervey to take over the GM duties from Eric Tillman (the man that traded Ricky Ray). Mike Reily is an unfamiliar name. He hasn’t had much CFL experience but don’t let that fool you, as this kid was backing up and observing Lions all-star QB, Travis Lulay. Reily went 1-1 as a starter, while completing 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and one interception in those games. He looked poised and very confident out there and knows he’s the starting QB every week. Edmonton has an explosive RB in Hugh Charles and several very decent options for Reily to throw to. On the defensive side of the ball, Edmonton has made many changes and it could take some time to see exactly what they have, but again, we mention that every defense has been two steps slower than every opposing offense. These are two teams loaded with offensive talent and offense has been the flavor of the week so far and there is no reason to believe this one will be any different.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY (+145) over Detroit
We wrote here on the free pick page last week that something isn't right with Detroit ace Justin Verlander, but the oddsmakers are still pricing him as if he is still in Cy Young form. In his last two starts, Verlander has given up nine earned runs and walked seven in just 10 innings of work. Last year against Tampa Bay he went 0-2 with a 5.02 ERA and his career-record in domes is a subpar 5-8 with an ERA of 4.51. Rays starter Chris Archer has a 2.45 ERA at home this season and shouldn't be this big of an underdog in this situation. Play the home dog.