Nelly
Houston Astros + over Los Angeles Angels
The Angels have won four in a row including an impressive sweep in Detroit but this is a team still battling major issues. The bullpen has been terrible and while Joe Blanton has pitched much better than his 1-10 record indicates the Angels are still just 2-13 when he starts, an embarrassing figure considering the price the Angels will lay on the road in this matchup. Blanton owns a 1.54 WHIP on the season as he has been very hittable and his road numbers are worse than his home numbers. Houston is getting its third look at Blanton this season and the Astros are 8-6 in the last 14 games, cashing several underdog tickets. Houston has a struggling pitching staff but Jordan Lyles has been reliable as the 22-year old has posted a 3.68 ERA. He is coming off a tough start but had allowed a combined total of just eight earned runs in his previous seven starts. Houston lost the opener in this series last night but they had won the previous four meetings between these teams, sitting at 7-4 on the season in this new division rivalry. Both teams have bad bullpens which could put this game in the balance late but with solid home underdog value the Astros and Lyles deserve a look as Houston has been playing mainly respectable ball of late sans the occasional blowout loss and despite the hefty payroll the Angels have bought just seven more wins on the season.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
San Francisco/ Colorado Under 9.5: Not often to I take an under in a Rockies home game, but this is a good spot to do so, as both pitchers are pitching well, while both offenses are struggling. The Giants come in having averaged just 2.6 rpg in their last 10 games and they have put up more than 4 runs just twice over that stretch. I don't expect the Giants to get much today either, as Jorge De La Rosa has a solid 3.40 ERA at home and a stellar 1.41 ERA in 6 day starts this year. Jorge has also allowed more than 3 ER's just twice in his last 10 starts. Matt Cain seems to be getting his act together for the Giants as he has allowed more than 3 ER's just once in his last 7 starts and he has a solid 2.02 ERA in his last 4 starts. He does struggle in this park, but the Rockies offense has gone south of late, especially without Tulowitzki. For the year the Rockies have averaged 4.77 rpg, but in their last 10 games they have put up more than 4 runs just twice, while averaging 3.4 rpg over that stretch. Two hot pitchers vs two struggling offenses should lead to a low scoring game.
St Louis -122 over OAKLAND: The Cards are the best road team in the league, going 26-15 away from home and they really love facing righties, going 40-20 vs them on the year, plus St Louis is also 16-10 in day games. The A's have been solid at home, but in day games they are just 14-17, averaging just 3.8 rpg in those games. Today they may have troubles getting their offense going as Adam Wainright comes in with a 7-1 mark and a 2.71 ERA on the road, while in 7 day starts he is 5-1 with a 2.28 ERA. Jarod Parker has pitched well of late for the A's, but he is still just 3-3 with a 4.88 ERA at home, while in 5 day starts he is 1-2 with a 4.55 ERA. Because they have done so well on the road and vs righties , plus the fact that Adam is the better pitcher here, I will go with the Cardinal to bounce back in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Washington -102 over NY METS: Taylor Jordan makes his first career start for the Nats after going 7-0 with an 0.83 ERA for the Harrisburg Senators this year. The Mets have never seen him, so that gives Taylor an edge here. The Mets could also be flat after blowing last night's game. Even though Gee is pitching well right now I still look for the Nats to take another one from the Mets here.
LA Angels -133 over HOUSTON: The Angels are playing much better these days especially offensively and that's good news for Blanton, who has been given just 2.71 rpg worth of support on the road. Joe has struggled overall this year, but has been much better lately, allowing 3 ER's or less in 5 of his last 6 starts. Jordan Lyles has pitched well this year, but his weakness is day starts, where he is 1-2 with a 6.65 ERA. I look for the Halos to keep rolling here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Boston/ Toronto Over 10.5: I expect good offense to win out over good pitching today. Both teams have averaged 5+ rpg in their last 10 games each and I see at least 11 runs put up in this one.
Seattle/ Chicago Over 7: Jeff S has pitched well on the road, but the Seattle offense has been good of late, putting up 4.8 rpg in their last 5 games. The Cubs have averaged 6.6 rpg over their last 5 and Aaron Harang has a 4.35 ERA at home and a 5.29 ERA overall. I see at least 9 runs in this one.
Wunderdog
Phoenix at Connecticut
Pick: Phoenix -4
The Sun have a pair of top performers in Tina Charles, and Kara Lawson, but it has been the supporting cast that simply has not grown, and the Sun have found difficult times on the court. The Mercury have a solid inside presence with the addition of Britney Griner contributing 16 ppg. Connecticut is never one to back down, especially at home, but these teams are clearly headed in opposite directions. Phoenix has commanded a 5-0 ATS mark in the last five meetings. Play on Phoenix.