Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday June, 30

Rob Vinciletti

Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins

The Twins fit a nice system here tonight that plays on home favorites off a 1 run home favored loss and scored 4 or less runs with 5 or more hits, vs an opponent off a 1 run road dog win that scored 4 or less runs but had 10 or more hits and 10 or more men left on base. These home teams have won 30 of the last 41 as they tend to bounce back off the tough 1 run loss. The Twins have the pitching advantage in this one as Diamond is 4-1 at home with a 1.95 era compared to J. Sanchez who has a 3.92 road era. Minnesota is 36-13 as a long term home favorite from -125 to -150 and have won 14 of the last 21 here at home vs the Royals. With the Royals scoring just 3 runs per game vs Left handed pitchers and having lost both times in game 2 of a 3+ road game series off a game one win, we will back the Twins as our free Play.

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Washington Nationals

When the Nats send Stephen Strasburg to the hill against the Braves in Game Two of this three-game series in Atlanta Saturday afternoon, Washington will do so knowing the phenom is 14-6 in his career team starts, including 7-2 away. With Strasburg in commanding KW form with 48 strikeouts and 6 walks in his last five starts, and off a loss in his most recent outing, look for the Nationals to make it five straight wins for Strasburg when hurling off a previous defeat here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants
Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Mat Latos has been very inconsistent, but the Cincinnati righty is giving indications he is ready to put it together. I've got no problem trying to beat Barry Zito, so I'm going with the Reds to top the Giants.

Jim Feist

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona is getting it together, with a winning record the last 10 games. Wade Miley (9-3, 2.19 ERA) takes the hill and has a sizzling 1.19 ERA his last three starts, fanning 23 in 22+ innings and only 2 walks! Miley (9-3) stymied the Cubs on Sunday, yielding one run on three hits and a walk across eight innings, as the D-Backs wrapped up a three-game series sweep. Miley, who punched up seven strikeouts, retired 20 of the first 21 batters. This offense is 12th in runs scored and 5th in on base percentage. Milwaukee is a .500 road team and they've been outscored this season overall because of awful pitching. Brewers are 3-10 in their last 13 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. Play the Diamondbacks!

CFL Predictions

Toronto / Edmonton Under 48.5

Defensively, the Argos were near the bottom in every major statistical category but a product of that was simply being on the field for too long during games. The Argos were the masters of going "two and out" last year on offense and as a result, it left the defense in awful situations where they needed to face the opposing offense with great field position and become victims of simply spending too much time on the field because the offense quite simply couldn't move the football. I do not believe Toronto's defense last year was not as bad as the stats show and now with Ricky Ray under center, the offense should be poised to move the football and sustain drives which will also keep the Argos defense fresher late in games. GM Jim Barker (and former Argos head coach) released last season's leading tackler Lin-J Shell and allowed 2011 CFL All-Star Byron Parker to leave in free agency. Toronto has just one member of its secondary returning from last season and defensive coordinator Chris Jones has implemented a new system that favors man-to-man coverage. Toronto's pass rush will have Ronald Flemons and Ricky Foley attacking opposing quarterbacks from the defensive end position once again. Foley tied for the team lead with six sacks in 2011 in his first year back in the CFL after a brief attempt at an NFL career. Kevin Huntley will shore up the middle once again as he is the team's premier defensive tackle. Toronto's top linebackers Ejiro Kuale and Jason Pottinger are going to be relied on more heavily this season while the new set of defensive backs get acclimated. Facing an Edmonton offense that looks to lack quite a bit of explosive playmaking ability, this is a good first opponent for the new look Toronto defense to break in against. Even a rebuilding Argos defense should be able to neutralize a very underwhelming Eskimos offensive attack.

Edmonton's strength entering the season is clearly their defense. If they hope to win games this season, it's the defensive unit that will be carrying the load for them. The Eskimos held their opponents to the lowest # of points allowed by an Edmonton defense since 1986. The 401 points allowed by the 2011 squad also snapped a streak of five straight years in which the Eskimos were outscored on the season by their opponents. They did lose a key piece of their defense to free agency as former DE Greg Peach left to join Hamilton but their defense is good enough to keep their team in games. Not sure how many games they can win with the defense alone but the Eskimos know their defense has to be in the spotlight for them to be competitive in 2012. DE Wheldon Brown and outstanding rookie LB in 2011 J.C. Sherritt had strong seasons last year and are back once again this year with the team. I expect a conservative, run the football, keep the clock moving, play great defense type of game plan from Edmonton here as they know they lack the offensive weapons and QB play that Toronto has. 48.5 is a fair total but it still looks to be a tick too high for my liking. Let's look for a lower scoring contest at Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton and play this one Under the total.

JR O'Donnell

White Sox / Yankees Under 10

Chicago White Sox visit the New York Yankees, and the Sox send out what many feel is their best pitcher, righty Jake Peavy (6-4, 2.84 ERA & .99 WHIP) against the Yankees Hiroki Kuroda (7-7, 3.40 ERA & 1.27 WHIP). Both of these pitchers have been on top of their game at late, with Peavy having "5" straight quality starts, and Kuroda 3-1 in his last five starts, and he has lowered his ERA .42 points. In his last "6" starts he has gone 42 innings, allowing only "9" earned runs with 35 K to 10 BB. Sox average 4.3 r/g on the road, and the Yankees 4.6 at home, but that isn't against pitchers the quality of these two. Both teams are under more than over the total and today's afternoon game will be no different. POWER RATED @ 8.43 RUNS

Jeff Alexander

Philadelphia Phillies -121

Recent history suggests Cole Hamels shouldn't be passed up in this price range. The Phillies are a perfect 8-0 on the road since the beginning of last season when valued at +125 to -125 with Hamels starting. They have won these games by an average of 3.0 runs. Hamels is having a terrific season, and he's yet to lose on the road. He's 5-0 with a 3.43 in 6 road starts. The Phillies are 22-8 in the last 30 meetings in Miami. Take Philly.

Jimmy Boyd

Washington Nationals -149

The Nats have the advantage with ace Stephen Strasburg on the mound. Strasburg is 9-2 with an ERA of 2.60 this season and has won his last two starts versus the Braves. He is a dominant pitcher who averages 7.9 strikeouts per start. These are exactly the type of pitchers that have given the Braves problems. In fact, Atlanta is 0-8 at home this season versus starting pitchers who strike out 5 batters or more per start. The Braves have lost these eight games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.3. While Atlanta doesn't figure to get too much off Strasburg, Washington should be able to get to Minor. He's just 3-6 with a 6.14 ERA this season. The Braves are 0-3 in his last 3 starts overall and 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus Washington. We'll bet the Nationals.

Dave Price

Boston Red Sox -143

The Mariners are just 5-13 in their last 18 home games and 1-7 in their last 8 games as a home underdog. The Red Sox have won 10 of their last 13 overall and 8 of their last 11 versus the Mariners. They are also 8-1 in Beckett's last 9 starts vs. Seattle. He has held the M's to 1 earned run or none in 6 of those 8 wins. Take Bean Town.

Jack Jones

Tampa Bay Rays -110

The Tampa Bay Rays are showing awesome value as a small home favorite over the Detroit Tigers Saturday. Tampa is 41-36 on the season after a solid 4-2 victory over Justin Verlander and the Tigers yesterday.

Tampa Bay starter Jeremy Hellickson has picked up right where he left off last season. He's 4-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.340 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including an impressive 3-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.204 WHIP in eight home starts this year.

Rick Porcello is certainly a downgrade from Hellickson. Porcello is 5-5 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.570 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 3-2 with a 4.72 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in seven road starts.

Hellickson has posted a 1.77 ERA and 0.885 WHIP in three career starts against Detroit. Tampa is 10-1 against the money line in home games after having lost 4 of their last 5 games over the last 2 seasons. The Rays are 8-1 in Hellickson's last 9 home starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet the Rays Saturday.

Ross King

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies and Hamels are having a tough time versus Miami but a closer look at the numbers reveals Philadelphia is 69-52 versus left handed starters the last 3 seasons and versus losing teams they are 107-76.Miami ia 10-39 as home dogs of a pick to +125 the last 3 seasons and in June they are currently 7-18 and 23-56 the last 3 seasons.Phillies are 28-15 versus Miami the last 3 seasons and 13-6 at Miami.Miami may be looking for their third win over Hamels and fourth over the Phillies but i expect Philadelphia to bounceback and if you erase Hamels two losses versus Miami he is 10-1 with a 2.64 e.r.a.Take Philadelphia who have beaten Buerhle twice in a row and avoid their 5th consecutive road loss with the better starter as your freeplay winner.

Tony Stoffo

Pirates vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 9.5

Free Play - Pittsburgh at St Louis Here we have another game wear the oppressive heat should have a major effect on today's game - with the Heat Index over the 100 degree mark. Plus add in the fact that both Lynn and Karstens have not be sharp as of late only will add to a higher scoring game here today. Karstens for the Pirates in his road starts this season has allowed 12 runs and 21 hits in only 11 innings pitched resulting in a 9.00 ERA and 2.000 WHIP. While Lynn for the Cards hasn't really been much better - as in his last 2 starts he has given up 11 runs and 18 hits in just 10+ innings pitched. So as you can see the over becomes the highly recommended play here today.

DOM CHAMBERS

For today’s selection, let’s go with the Washington Nationals on the run line to beat the Atlanta Braves.

This is a situation where you have two pitchers going in opposite directions.

The Nationals are starting Stephen Strasburg, who is 9-2 with a 2.60 ERA. He is a candidate to be the National League starter in the All-Star Game. In his last three starts, he is 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA.

He has been great and giving the Nationals quality starts.

The Braves are starting Mike Minor. He is had a tougher time. Overall, he is 3-6 with a 6.14 ERA and the Braves have lost his last three starts. In those games, he is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA. At home, his ERA is 5.28.

You have one side where the starter is outstanding and the other side where the starter struggles.

There is not reason to believe those trends will change here.

The Nationals have been scoring runs lately and with Strasburg on the mound, it should be an easy win for them.

Take the Nationals on the run line.

3♦ NATIONALS -1.5

CRAIG DAVIS

My free play run stands at 11-2, and 38-20-1 overall heading into Saturday's action.

Today's free play is on the Washington Nats on the Run Line over Atlanta in an NL East divisional battle. Stephen Strasburg is looking to win his 10th game of the year for his second straight outing, and today I think he'll be able to deliver because I believe his offense will give him some run support.

Mike Minor, who was drafted in the same class with Strasburg and only six picks behind him, takes the hill opposite the former San Diego State star and hopes to turn things around from a not-so-hot start.

Strasburg is pitching like a potential Cy Young award winner, with a 9-2 record and a 2.60 ERA over 16 starts, and was on a six-game winning streak (two against Atlanta) until his 4-2 loss to Colorado Monday... but he really didn't pitch badly.

Minor, on the other hand, has one of the worst ERAs among starters in the NL with a 6.14. He allowed three dingers Monday at Boston as part of seven overall runs (four earned) in 4 2/3 innings of work as the Red Sox pounded the Braves, 9-4. Honestly, it's surprising Minor is only 3-6 because it seems like he should be worse than that.

The last time these two faced off against each other, neither guy pitched great but Strasburg got the win because his offense got to the Atlanta pen quicker. Strasburg allowed four runs over five innings but walks were his biggest enemy that day. Don't expect the same result this afternoon.

I like Strasburg and the Nats on the Run Line in an easy win over the Braves as your free play of the day.

3♦ WASHINGTON -1.5