ANTHONY REDD
Let's get to Saturday's freebie.....
31-23-1 run with my comp plays heading into Saturday's selection on the New York Mets over the LA Dodgers
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If you can't score, you can't win. Pretty obvious, right? And a darn good reason to go against the punchless Dodgers, who have hit .177 and been shut out five times while losing 10 of 11, including six in a row, heading into tonight's game against the Mets, who have held LA to 11 hits in taking the first two games of this weekend series by scores of 3-2 and 9-0.
New York has scored 29 runs and batted .321 while winning three in a row. Tonight the Mets send Johan Santana to the hill. He's 4-0 lifetime against the Dodgers with a 0.65 ERA.
LA counters with Nathan Eovaldi, who is 0-4 in six starts - all losses by the Dodgers - with a 4.04 ERA. He was hit hard in Monday's loss at San Francisco, allowing eight runs on 10 hits in five innings.
I figure the only reason the Mets are laying -160 or more here is Santana's 1-3 record and 5.80 ERA in seven road starts this season. But I'll overlook that and instead focus on the fact that he's 4-2 in his last six trips to the hill, no matter the locale, with a 2.70 ERA. And his team is the one hitting the ball with oomph in this match-up.
4♦ NY METS
SCOTT DELANEY
For my free winner, I'm taking the home underdog at Chavez Ravine for the second straight night, as I like the value I see with the Los Angeles Dodgers over the New York Mets tonight. It's time for this losing streak to come to an end. The Dodgers have no business losing this many, even if Kemp and Ethier are on the disabled list. They have no business being shut out for as many game as they have - cause Kemp has already been on the disabled list, and the Dodgers have been dominating baseball.
They should no how to act!.
They're in an offensive slump right now, and the best thing for them right now is to get some quality pitching, and durable pitching at that. Nathan Eovaldi is a youngster who may be able to add some pep in the Dodgers' step and get things going for them, especially against an aggressive lineup like the Mets.
Take the home pup here.
3♦ LA DODGERS
MATT RIVERS
Now 8-1 my last 9 free plays selections.
As for your Saturday comp play, going to look for San Diego and Colorado to get cranking at the plate, as the Padres and Rockies go over the total at Coors Field one more time.
Last night's game saw Jeff Francis keep the bats at bay against the Padres, but let's keep in mind that Colorado just put the wraps on a rather "offensive" series with the Washington Nationals in which the teams appeared to be playing slow-pitch softball.
The hits and runs should accumulate tonight, especially with Colorado starter Christina Friedrich struggling on the mound. Friedrich has surrendered 18 earned runs on 30 hits over his last 19-plus innings of work. Six of his ten starts this season have landed over the total.
Edinson Volquez can at least claim to be a little bit stingier, but the fact remains the Padres starter has seen two of his last three starts play over the posted price, and he has allowed 13 runs his last 23-plus innings pitched.
Going to look for the offense to get started early in this one.
Padres-Rockies over the total Saturday night.
3♦ OVER
JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Under in the White Sox-Yankees matinee in the Bronx.
Last night the teams had their hitting shoes on, as both Quintana and Warren were relieved of their duties early on Friday evening. Even with last night's Over, the teams are on a 7-3-1 Under clip the last eleven times they have faced one another, and I have a strong suspicion the Under will be marked at 8-3-1 when this one is in the books.
Jake Peavy will go for Chicago and the right has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 of his last 6 assignments.
Hiroki Kuroda counters with a the same mark, 2 earned runs or less allowed in 5 of his last 6 starts. Kuroda has also pitched 16 scoreless innings during day light hours.
Quick turnaround for these teams after last night's slugfest, so expect some tired bats and players.
Peavy and Kuroda to hook up in a good one this afternoon.
Pale Hose and Pinstripers Under the total on Saturday.
1♦ UNDER
Chris Elliott
Nationals @ Braves
PICK: Under 7.5
The Washington Nationals (44-31) square off at Turner Field Saturday afternoon against the Atlanta Braves (40-36) in the battle of NL East supremacy.
Stephen Strasburg toes the rubber for the Nats in this one with a record of 9-2, ERA of 2.60, WHIP of 1.04 and .217 BAA. He has been dominant all season with 118 Ks in 90 innings. In his last 5 games, he has allowed 9 runs in 32 innings, for an ERA of 2.53. 4 of the last 5 Strasburg starts have gone "Under" the total.
Mike Minor will oppose the Nats with a record of 3-6, 6.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .271 BAA. Minor was a highly touted 7th overall draft pick out of Vanderbilt in 2009 but has struggled to finish ball games this season, despite showing signs that he is the next great lefty starter on the Braves staff. In his last 4 games, he has allowed 10 runs in 22.2 innings, good for an ERA of 3.97.
This is a battle of 2 of the young, up and coming teams in the NL East. Both squads have a great mix of highly touted young talent with the Nats having back to back 1st overall draft picks in their lineup with Strasburg and Harper. The Braves boast 2 young talents that finished first and second in Rookie of the Year last year in Craig Kimbrel and Freddie Freeman. Both teams are looking to flex their muscle to prove they are the best in the division.
Strasburg has been tough all year and I look for him to keep the Braves in check for a solid 7 innings then hand the ball over to a steady bullpen that is 7th in MLB in ERA at 3.07.
Minor has been much better of late and has been a proven pitcher in the big games so far in his career. 3 starts ago, he out pitched C.C. Sabathia through 7 innings and left with a 4-1 lead, only to have his bullpen blow the game for him.
In 2008, Minor was the winning pitcher for the US College team in the Haarlam Baseball Week Tournament Championship game over Cuba. This was the first time a US College team has ever beaten Cuba in a championship game!
Minor and Strasburg were teammates and the 2 best pitchers for USA in the 2008 World University Chamionships that won gold in the Czech Republic. You know they will have a friendly rivalry and want to out duel each other in this one!
Look for pitching to be the theme of the day in this game and consider the "Under".
WUNDERDOG
Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Pick: New York Yankees -140
The Yankees have lost the first two at home in their series vs. the White Sox. Last night they were victims of a 14-run, 19-hit attack. There tends to be an over-reaction to a beating, holding the line in check here. But the reality is that despite having nine pitchers on the disabled list, New York has held 21 of their last 26 opponents to 4 runs or less. The Yankees send Hiroki Kuroda to the mound today, and he has been their best pitcher to date with a 3.40 ERA. After a slow start Kuroda has pitched to a 1.93 ERA in his last six starts. The Yankees have been good at bouncing back, as they are 42-15 after losing the first two games of a series. So despite the two losses here to the Sox, they are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The Yankees have also won 13 of their last 16 vs. a right-handed starter. Chicago is still just 7-15 in their last 22 in new York. Play on the New York Yankees.
MLB Predictions
Washington Nationals -139
Washington took the first of three meetings between these two NL East clubs last night by a score of 5-4. The win moves the Nationals to 44-31 on the season and 24-17 on the road, good for 1st in the NL East. The Braves are 40-36 and just 17-19 at home which has them in 3rd place in the division. Tonight Stephen Strasburg will take the mound with his 9-2 record, 2.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and .217 opponents batting average. Strasburg looks to cap off an excellent June where he has gone 4-1 over 5 starts with a 2.53 ERA. Southpaw Mike Minor will take the mound for Atlanta, and he is just 3-6 on the season with a 6.14 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .271 opponents batting average. He has settled down a bit in June going 1-2 with a 3.97 ERA, but he has allowed 4 earned runs against in each of his last two starts which lasted just 5.2 innings and 4.2 innings. Take note that the Nationals are 10-4 in their last 14 road games, 12-4 in their last 16 games as a favorite, and 6-2 in their last 8 games vs a lefty starter. The Nationals are also 10-2 in Strasburg's last 12 road starts, 20-7 in his last 27 starts overall, and 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs a divisional opponent. The Nats are 12-3 in games he has started this season and he has already beaten the Braves twice. The Braves are just 3-8 in their last 11 home games, and 5-14 in their last 19 games following a loss. Atlanta has gone 1-6 in Minor's last 7 starts overall and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts. Washington has won 4 straight games at Turner Field and have gone 7-1 against the Braves in their last 8 meetings overall. Note that the Nationals have scored 5+ runs in 4 straight games. It's rare for Washington to lose behind Strasburg and I look for him to beat the Braves for a third time this season.