Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, June 5,2010

Insider Angles

While Chad Billingsley of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tommy Hanson of the Atlanta Braves have very similar year-to-date numbers this season, it is Billingsley that is in much better current form, and we look for that to make the difference as LA cools off the red-hot Braves.

Billingsley is 6-2 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.32 WHIP, with 61 strikeouts against 22 walks in 65 innings. He has consistently maintained his fine form, as he has six Quality Starts in his last eight outings and he allowed only four runs in each of the other two efforts. He was also lights out in both of his starts vs. Atlanta last season, allowing just one earned run and six hits in 11 innings with 12 strikeouts.

Now Hanson is 5-3 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, but unlike Billingsley, Hanson has thrown in a couple of stinkers lately. He was torched for eight earned runs while lasting only 1.2 innings vs. the Reds and he allowed five earned runs in seven innings vs. Arizona, with both of those clunkers coming within his last four starts. Hanson was also not that effective in his only career start vs. the Dodgers last season, allowing four earned runs and nine baserunners in six innings.

Besides, the Braves are not the only hot team in this contest. While Atlanta had won nine straight games entering play Friday night, coming in on a 20-6 run in their last 26 games, the Dodgers have been right there with them, going 20-7 in their last 27 contests.

Finally, while both bullpens have performed well over the last 10 games, the Los Angeles unit has been almost unhittable with a 1.83 ERA in that time, and while the 3.20 ERA in that span for the Atlanta pen is good, it still pales in comparison.

So what we have here are two fairly equal teams, except that the Dodgers have the hotter starting pitcher and the hotter bullpen. Add in home field, where the Dodgers are 18-9 this season including 9-3 in the last 12 games at Dodgers Stadium, and LA becomes the play at this cheap price.

Pick: Dodgers -110

JIM FEIST COMP

CLEVELAND INDIANS / CHICAGO WHITE SOX
TAKE: CLEVELAND INDIANS

The White Sox continue to disappoint, with a losing record both home and away. The offense is 10th in runs scored in the AL and 10th in on base percentage. Starter Jake Peavy has been awful, with a 6.23 ERA. In his last three starts he has an 8.83 ERA. Cleveland righty Mitch Talbot is 6-4 with an impressive 3.78 ERA and in 16 career innings against these White Sox he's 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA. Play the Indians.

Mark Franco

New York Yankees -117

Look for Andy Pettitte (7-1, 2.48 ERA) and the Yankees to bounce back after getting beat yesterday. Pettitte will be going for his 200th win and that will give the Yankees extra motivation to produce runs.

Pettitte also has loved pitching in Toronto, winning his last four starts at Rogers Centre - three in 2009 while compiling a 15-5 lifetime mark north of the border.

Jays starter Romero went 1-1 with a 5.94 ERA in three starts versus the Yankees last year.

Back the Yankees to get Andy his 200th victory!

Steve Merril

Angels vs.Mariners
Play: Over 7½

A smoking hot Angels offense continues their series in Seattle against the Mariners on Saturday afternoon. LAA has scored five runs or more in three straight and six of their last seven games. Now they'll get a crack at Ryan Rowland-Smith making a spot start instead of Doug Fister. He went 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA as a starter allowing 10 home runs. Rowland-Smith will be on a pitch count between 75 and 90 meaning the bullpen will be a factor. Hideki Matsui (3-8), Torii Hunter (3-7), Erick Aybar (2-6), Howard Kendrick (3-6), Maicer Izturis (2-4), Robb Quinlan (1-3), Reggie Willits (2-3) and Mike Napoli (1-1) all hit the Mariners starter well.

Ervin Santana is an inconsistent pitcher. He's 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA in 11 starts. The righty got touched up for five runs and 10 hits in 6.7 innings the last time he was in Seattle this season. Overall, Santana is 6-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 16 starts against Seattle. Ichiro (17-50), Milton Bradley (6-14), Josh Wilson (5-9), Mike Sweeney (2-3), Rob Johnson (1-3) and Matt Tuiasosopo (1-3) all have good numbers vs. Santana. Seattle's offense is a bit better at home hitting nearly .250. The Angels pen has an ERA around 6.00 on the road going 1-4 this season.

Karl Garrett

4-1 the last 5 days with my comp plays.

After watching Adam Wainwright have his way last night, expect things to change this Saturday afternoon with Narveson and Ottavino on the mound.

Look for the over to be the way to go again this afternoon, as the over is now 6-2-2 the last 10 times these division rivals have met at Bush Stadium.

The G-Man doesn't hold out hope that Chris Narveson and Adam Ottavino will be hanging zeros on the scoreboard this afternoon, as Narveson has allowed 12 runs to score his last 17 innings pitched, while Ottavino's first big league start saw 4 runs score in his 6 innings of work.

Milwaukee is on a 5-1-1 over run their last 7 games, while St. Louis has now gone over the total in 5 of their last 8 ballgames with a push last night.

Hitters have their way at Busch as the Brewers and Cardinals put plenty of runs on the the board.

G-Man taking the over.

3♦ OVER

Bobby Maxwell

Delivered the FREE winner on Friday night when the D'Backs rallied to beat the Rockies, improving my comp record to 105-86-3. Tonight I have a freebie coming on the Pirates at home to down the visiting the Giants.

The Giants opened this series with a win on Friday night, but tonight you’ve got to go against San Francisco starter Todd Wellemeyer as he is just a lousy pitcher on the road, not just this year, but his entire career. So let’s go with the home team and play the Pirates tonight.

Wellemeyer is 0-3 on the road this season with a 9.35 ERA, giving up nine runs in his last 9.1 innings of work on the highway in Arizona and New York. His last start in Pittsburgh came last May 12 when he was a starter with the Cardinals and gave up a whopping seven runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings of a 7-1 loss to the Pirates. In his last three starts in Pittsburgh he’s allowed 15 runs in 16.2 innings of work.

On the hill for the Pirates is lefty Paul Maholm who has a 2.70 ERA in his last three starts. Last time out on Sunday, he held the Braves to two runs in six innings but the offense failed to deliver, losing 5-2. He’s faced the Giants once this season, back on April 13 he gave up three runs in five innings of a 6-5 win. Last time Maholm faced the Giants in Pittsburgh, he gave up just one unearned run in eight innings, striking out seven en route to a 2-1 victory.

San Francisco is just 1-4 in its last five against left-handers, 1-5 on the road overall and 0-4 with Wellemeyer on the highway. Pittsburgh is 4-1 in Maholm’s last five starts with five days of rest and the Pirates will score the home win tonight.

I’m playing the Pirates tonight!

4♦ PITTSBURGH

Chuck O'Brien

Saturday’s complimentary selection comes in early A.L. East action, and I’ll take the Yankees as a small favorite at Toronto.

This play boils down to one fact: The Blue Jays cannot hit left-handed pitching. They’re batting .200 as a team against southpaws, and that includes a .190 average at home. And it’s not like they’re heating up, either, as their average against lefties over the past 10 days is .226.

Well, this afternoon Toronto is facing a damn-good lefty in Andy Pettitte. The 37-year-old has been dynamite all year, going 7-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 10 starts overall (nine New York wins). Even better, he’s 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA in three road contests (all Yankees wins). And even better than that, he’s 6-0 with a 1.12 ERA in six day games.

Not only have the Yankees won nine of Pettitte’s 10 starts this season, but they’re 20-6 in his last 26 as a favorite, 40-18 in his last 58 as a road favorite and 48-23 in his last 71 against A.L. East squads. That includes four straight victories with Pettitte pitching in Toronto.

Back to the Jays: Their struggles at the plate against lefties have translated to the win-loss column, as they’ve has lost seven of their last 10 games versus southpaw starters and five straight home games to lefties. On top of that, Toronto has dropped nine of 12 games as a home underdog.

As for Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero, no doubt he’s been strong all year. However, he hasn’t fared very well against the mighty Yankees offense (5.94 ERA in three starts last year as a rookie, losing two of them). Also, the Toronto has come up short in 10 of Romero’s last 12 games against A.L. East rivals and 10 of Romero’s last 13 starts when he’s an underdog. Finally, New York has owned this rivalry, winning 12 of the last 18 meetings overall, including six of the last nine in Canada.

4♦ N.Y. YANKEES

Stephen Nover

I am now 21-5 on my past 26 complimentary selections after winning on Friday with the Padres at plus 1-1/2 runs against the Phillies. I'll look to continue my hot streak backing Oakland at home tonight against Minnesota.

The Athletics are one of the toughest home teams in baseball at 18-10. They've won seven of their past 10 at Oakland Coliseum. They also have a strong history when playing AL Central Division foes going 16-8 versus them in their last 24 meetings.

The Twins have finished with losing road marks the past three seasons. This year they are 14-14 away from Target Field. They've dropped six of their past eight road contests.

Trevor Cahill is slated to start for Oakland. He's not a big strikeout pitcher, but he knows how to get out of jams. He's allowed only one run during each of his past three starts.

The Twins are averaging just two runs in their past four games. They are without right fielder Michael Cuddyer, who is on bereavement leave and won't be back in uniform until Tuesday. Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire said he plans on giving Justin Morneau the day off today with Joe Mauer expected to be rested on Sunday. Morneau has been a monster leading the American League in batting, slugging percentage and on-base percentage.

The Athletics will be facing Francisco Liriano, who is having a huge comeback season after two down years following Tommy John surgery. Liriano, though, isn't pitching as well as he was during April.

Liriano also has struggled in Oakland with an 8.31 ERA in four career starts at Oakland Coliseum.

4♦ ATHLETICS

Chris Jordan

Looking at the Oakland Athletics tonight against the visiting Minnesota Twins, as I believe I will see a gem out of A's starter Trevor Cahill. Though the Twinkies are handing the ball over to Francisco Liriano, who is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in four career starts at Oakland Coliseum, I'll list only Cahill and bank on his creativity for the victory tonight.

Cahill has been impressive in winning his past three starts, allowing just three earned runs - one in each game - over 19 innings for a 1.42 ERA.

He's coming off a sterling effort against the Tigers on Monday when he allowed an earned run on five hits in 6 1/3rd innings while striking out three in a 4-1 win.

The crafty 22-year-old has worked at least six innings in each of his last four starts and hasn't allowed more than three runs in the six starts since his season debut.

Cahill, who is 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA in two home starts this season, throws a tricky fastball that ranges from 88- to 92-miles per hour, but has heavy sink action from the higher slot. Where he keeps batters guessing - and off balance - is when he mixes in a quick-biting slider and a curveball he can change speed on.

Right now Cahill is pitching in the right kind of groove, and is not only in command of his heaters, but is hitting his spots.

All Oakland tonight, as Cahill carries the burden.

3♦ ATHLETICS

BRETT ATKINS

I'm coming with a freebie today on the Marlins as they are in New York to take on the Mets in a National League East matchup.

The Marlins have dominated the Mets all season, but got beat on Friday night in New York.

They will bounce back today and take this one from the Mets behind the pitching of left-hander Nate Robertson. He has held the opposition to two runs or less in four of his last six outings and when he faced the Mets on May 15 he gave up just two earned runs in 5.2 innings of a 7-5 Florida win.

On the opposite side is the Mets’ Jonathon Niese whose last start was against Florida back on May 16 when he gave up five runs in just two innings of a 10-8 loss. Florida has won five of seven in New York and 12 of the last 17 against the Mets overall.

Play the Marlins in this one.

2♦ FLORIDA

JOEL TYSON

The Giants were able to notch a rare road win on Friday night, as last night's win in the Steel City was only their 10th in 23 games away from home.

The Pirates will send out Paul Maholm who has allowed just 2 earned runs over his last 13 innings of work. His counterpart Todd Wellemeyer has been a definite go against on the road this season, with an 0-3 record, and a sky-high 9.35 ERA.

Go with the Bucs to add to Wellemeyer's already bloated road ERA as Pittsburgh picks up the home win on Saturday.

2♦ PITTSBURGH

JEFF BENTON

I’m still on runs of 84-52-2 and 45-30 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, we’ll play the Angels on the road at Seattle.

First off, Los Angeles right-hander Ervin Santana is absolutely dealing right now. He’s 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA in his last four starts, including 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in two road games. Going back further, Santana has delivered six quality starts in his last seven trips to the mound, and the Angels are 7-2 in his last nine trips to the mound (going at least six innings in all nine contests).

One of the reasons for Santana’s recent success is he’s been receiving a ton of offensive support, as the Angels have scored 33 runs in his last four outings. Run support is something Mariners pitchers know little about. Seattle ranks 27th out of 30 teams in baseball with 197 runs (less than 3.7 per game), and their .243 team batting average is 26th (only the Indians, White Sox, Pirates and Astros are worse).

Well, if that offense doesn’t get to Santana today, the Mariners figure to be in big trouble, as they’re pulling Ryan Rowland-Smith out of the bullpen and giving him another start (his first since May 17). Rowland-Smith – who is subbing for Doug Fister in this one – is 0-4 with a 7.24 ERA in 11 starts this year (Seattle is 3-8), including 0-3 with a 14.40 ERA in his last three starts.

And while Rowland-Smith has a decent 3.29 ERA in nine career games (three starts) against the Angels, he’s got an 0-2 record, and L.A. is batting .292 in 27 1/3 innings against the lefty.

As for Santana’s history against the Mariners, yes, his last poor start came in Seattle on May 9, when he allowed five runs on 10 hits in 6 2/3 innings of an 8-1 defeat. However, prior to that, Santana had produced seven quality starts in his previous eight outings against the Mariners, posting a 1.61 ERA in four games at Safeco Field. And the Angels are still 10-4 in Santana’s last 14 starts versus the M’s.

Furthermore, L.A. pounded the Seattle last night and has now won 50 of 74 overall against the Mariners (8-2 in the last 10), seven of eight against right-handed starters, eight of Santana’s last 10 starts as a ‘dog and 14 of Santana’s last 20 Saturday starts.

5♦ L.A. ANGELS

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels and Mariners meet in Seattle in Game Two of this three-game series when Erwin Santana takes the mound in great KW form with four walks and 22 strikeouts in his last three starts, all victories for the Halos. He is also 10-4 in his last 14 teams starts against the Mariners. Look for the M's to fall to 1-5 in their last six home games behind Doug Fister here today.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Pittsburgh Pirates -102

Pittsburgh has won 5 of its last 7 home games against the Giants, and it has also won 5 of Maholm's last 7 starts against the Giants. Maholm's success figures to continue when you consider how poorly the Giants have hit southpaw starters (scoring just 3.6 runs per game against them). In addition, Wellemeyer is 0-3 (0-4 on the money line) with an ERA of 9.35 and a WHIP of 1.904 this season. The last time the Pirates saw Wellemeyer, they hit him up for 7 earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work. Pittsburgh isn't a good hitting ball club, but everyone has gotten to Wellemeyer on the road. The Giants are also 1-5 in their last 6 road games and 0-5 in their last 5 games as an underdog. With this in mind, I like our chances with Pittsburgh this evening. Bet the Bucs.