Rob Vinciletti
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa is coming off a tough loss last night 9-6 in Texas. However they are 21-7 on the road and 7-3 as a road favorite in this range. Texas is still just 5-12 vs winning teams. For system purposes we want to play on road favorites off a road dog loss if the total was 10 or higher both teams scored 5 or more runs and our team left 10 or more men left on base. These road favs have cashed 8 of the last 9 times. In the pitching department Texas has T. Hunter making his first start of the year. This is a tough spot to make his first one against a solid Tampa lineup. The Rays counter with J. Shields tonight. Shields has been much better in road starts this season winning 4 of 5 with a sterling 3.34 era. He has also been good vs the Rangers cashing 3 of his 4 teams starts. Look for Tampa to take game 2 tonight.
Gill Alexander
HOU (-110) vs CHC
Houston has won 4 in a row and the Cubbies have lost 4 in a row. Dempster has held opponents to a .213BA this season and has the 10th best WHIP in the NL at 1.10. But, he's coming off a 6.2IP, 6ER, 9H performance v StL, has a 4.35ERA in his last 7 starts, and a 4.74ERA in 19 career starts v Houston. Oswalt had 10 straight quality outings before his ejection from the ballgame the last time he took the hill ended that run. He's holding opponents to a .217BA this season and has the 8th best WHIP in the NL at 1.08. Oswalt has a 2.78ERA in '10 and a 1.05ERA in his last 3 starts v ChC. Advanced stats back us up. Dempster has a 4.00 FIP and 3.80xFIP w a .255BABIP. Oswalt has a 3.24FIP (16th best in MLB) and a 3.30xFIP (9th best in MLB) w a .2797BABIP, meaning he may have been a beneficiary of good fortune thus far this season, but not as big a beneficiary as Dempster. Don't be scared off by your perception of the Astros. There's value here.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Philadelphia over San Diego
The veteran and aging lefty Jamie Moyer goes on-line today with a chance to get the Phillies right. Philadelphia did win last night behind a strong pen and timely hitting by Shane Victorino. They will need a superior effort here to overcome the highly rated and effective bunch from the west coast.
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: San Diego Padres
The Phillies were able to pull out a squeaker last night over San Diego thanks to another solid performance from Roy Halladay. Still, the offense struggled as it managed only three runs and the production at the plate has been abysmal. The Phillies have averaged a mere 1.4 rpg over their last 12 games and the highest single game output over that span is just three runs which they managed only five times. San Diego, despite the loss, is still playing very well on the road as it is 14-10 on the season, the same record as Philadelphia has at home, and it has the pitching edge tonight. Jamie Moyer has been either really good or really bad this season. Of his 10 starts, he has allowed two runs or fewer four times while allowing four runs or more in the other six starts. He has been consistently inconsistent as he followed up those first three good games with bad games the next time out. The fourth good start came in his last outing so based on the recent form he is due for another bad game. The Padres offense is nothing special but they are hitting .292 over their last 10 games against left-handed pitching. Moyer has a 4.55 ERA in nine starts under the lights. He squares off against Jon Garland who is having a tremendous season in his first season with the Padres. He is 6-2 with a 2.15 ERA through 11 starts with San Diego winning eight of those 11 games. He has not been as effective on the road but he hasn’t been bad either and that is made up by his sensational record in nighttime games as he is 4-0 with a 1.75 ERA in six starts with the Padres going 5-1 in those games. After not posting a quality start in his first three games, Garland has tossed seven quality performances in his last eight trips to the mound and has put up an even better 1.73 ERA over those eight games. The Padres are 8-1 in his last nine starts and Garland has not lost since April 11th. The Padres are 25-9 in their last 34 games following a loss while the Phillies are 1-7 in Moyer’s last eight home starts against teams with a winning record. 3* San Diego Padres
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Mariners are 0-10 when their starter went less than four innings in his last start and the Angels are 13-1 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a 5+ run win. Finally, the Angels are The Angels are 5-0 when Ervin Santana starts on the road when they scored a total of seven or more runs in his last start. Back the Halos.
Tom Freese
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati starter Mike Leake has allowed 12 runs total in his last 7 starts. The Reds are 17-5 their last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Cincinnati is 35 -17 their last 52 games vs. a starter with a WHIP over 130. The Reds are are 7-2 in Game two of a series. Washington starter Luis Atilano has allowed 16 runs in 22 innings of work. The Nationals are 55-122 their last 177 games when thr Total is 7.0 to 8.5. The Nats are 20-42 on Saturday.
Tony George
PHI / SDP Under 9
This went under last night and will again today with 2 good pitchers. Philly is a Under machine going under in 20 of 28 games. The Padres are 11-1 the last 12 Saturday games with the Under. Neither team lights up the scoreboard and both teams bullpens are solid, and the Pads bullpen has under a 1 ERA their last 3 games. Garland and Moyer should have a pitchers duel tonight, I like the Under here.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA –1½ +1.46 over San Diego
It’s incredible that the Phillies are in a stretch in which they’ve scored three runs or less in 12 straight games. That all ends here against Jon Garland, as his run of 6-0 and a 1.58 ERA over his last nine starts is even more incredible (seven of those nine starts were in San Diego). These two abnormalities will collide and the chances of the Phillies snapping out of it are much greater than the chances of Garland throwing another gem. Garland continues to defy the odds and like a blackjack player that keeps winning, it simply cannot last. You can’t overcome the house edge over an extended period of time and Garland’s time is up. He’s benefitted from pitching at Petco Park and he’s benefited from an unsustainable 86% strand rate, which has continued to depress his ERA despite an ugly BB/K ratio that sits at 30/42. Garland is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in four starts against the Phillies, going 0-2 with a 6.35 ERA in two starts last year with Arizona and he’s not a better pitcher this season, he’s just been extremely fortunate. Jamie Moyer has gone six or more innings in nine of his 10 starts this year. He’ll likely allow three or four runs but so what. Everything about this game defies reason in that Moyer is 48 years old, Garland is winning games, the Padres are in first and the Phillies aren’t scoring runs. Things get back to normal here. Play Philadelphia –1½ +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado –1½ +1.36 over ARIZONA
The Snakes snapped an ugly losing streak last night by scoring two runs in the ninth and with that came a big load off of its shoulders. However, Dontrelle Willis pitching at this park is a complete disaster waiting to happen and it probably will. Willis went 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in eight starts and one relief appearance with the Tigers. He had one win last season and zero wins the year before. So, that’s two wins for the Tigers at a cost of 27 million. That’s a nice signing. They could’ve paid me one million and I would have three wins in three years. They would’ve saved 26 million and won one more game. Anyway, this season Willis had a 26% line-drive rate, which is one of the worst in baseball and line drives in this park means doubles and triples. They don’t get chased down like they do at Comerica. He had a 1.78 WHIP, he walked 29 batters in 43 IP while striking out 33 and the Rockies are not free swingers. In fact, Colorado has walked 206 times this season, which ranks them third in the NL and sixth overall out of 30 teams. Willis is going to have to throw strikes consistently and that’s something he’s not capable of doing. Jhoulys Chacin has a BAA on the road of .169. He’s faced the D-Backs twice this season and against them his BAA is .160. Unlike Willis, he throws strikes and has 36 K’s in 37 IP with just 15 walks. The D-Backs are struggling badly at the plate, batting well south of the Mendoza Line over the last week or so. And lastly, the D-Backs pen is worse than it’s starter and if the Rocks don’t score eight or more here, it’ll come as a surprise. Play: Colorado –1½ +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
Boston 1½ -1.21 over BALTIMORE
Rarely will we recommend laying 1½ runs and juice but this one warrants it because the O’s literally have no shot here. This is equivalent to a 20,000 claimer running in today’s Belmont. Jon Lester is one of, if not the best lefty in the game. The O’s are 5-14 against southpaws. Lester (98 BPV, 4-5-5-4-4 PQS) is riding a seven-start streak of PQS Dominant performances, a streak that has seen him go 6-0 with a 55% groundball rate and he’s just warming up. June is the best month for Lester. In his career, his lowest ERA (2.56), lowest OPS (.633) and best record (9-1) is in the month of June. The O’s have scored eight runs over its last seven games and over that stretch have been outscored 45-8. Jeremy Guthrie walked three, struck out two, and allowed 19 fly balls and line drives versus just four grounders in his last start. He’s 1-5 in his career vs the Red Sox with a 4.72 ERA and now the Red Sox are seeing beach balls. Boston has scored six times or more in five straight games and overall they’ve scored 42 runs over that stretch while batting .366. The O’s are batting .181 over its last seven games. Can this one go any other way? Play: Boston –1½ -1.21 (Risking 2.42 units to win 2).
Spartan
MIL (+136) vs STL
This likely will not be a real popular selection and I realize that but I follow the Cardinals closer than most and I feel the real value here guys lies with the Brewers. Pretty hefty price for Cards backers considering young pitcher Adam Ottavino will be making only his second start in the bigs. His initial outing at Wrigley was not exactly stellar as he allowed four runs and walked a disturbing 6 in 5 and 2/3 frames worked. Milwaukee is countering with Chris Narveson who will be making his first ever start against the Cardinals however when facing the Birds in a relief role he has a stellar 2.25 era in seven appearances. Also as a Cardinals fan, frankly I have seen the pain in the ass the Brewers have been to the Cardinals at Busch stadium. The victory on friday night was actually only the 4th in 17 games when hosting the Brew crew. The Cardinals offense, while showing life last night, has been very inconsistent and most very quiet. I just look at the price on this game and feel the value here lies with a Milwaukee club who has very clearly shown in the past they can handle the Cardinals in their own yard. It's no huge release or anything guys but I certainly feel Milwaukee warrants serious consideration for a small wager.
Rocketman
LA Angels @ Seattle
Play: LA Angels -130
LA Angels are 113-83 on the road the past 3 years. LA Angels are 80-34 in days games the past 3 years. LA Angels are 79-49 the past 3 years against left handed starters. Seattle is 9-22 this year after a loss. Seattle is 6-16 against division opponents this year. Seattle is 5-14 this year in day games. LA Angels have won 6 of their last 7 games overall. Seattle is scoring only 3.6 runs per game overall this year, 3.7 runs per game at home this season and 3.6 runs per game against right handed starters. Ervin Santana is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA overall this year, 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA on the road and 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA his last 3 starts. Ryan Rowland-Smith is 0-4 with a 7.62 ERA in all starts this year, 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 14.40 ERA his last 3 starts. Smith is 0-2 overall vs LA Angels since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels today!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox
Play: Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians may not be having a good season thus far, but they seem to have the White Sox number. Last night the Indians won 10-1 in the series opener and have won seven of the 10 matchups. Indians starter Mitch Talbot is already 2-0 against the Sox in his short career as he has gone 16 innings allowing just three earned runs. His counterpart Jake Peavy has struggled against Cleveland in his career as he has a 1-4 TSR with a 5.59 ERA in five starts. The Indians have a number of young hungry players trying to make names for themselves. We suggest a play on them tonight.
John Ryan
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
3* graded play on Oakland as they take on Minnesota set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the As will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 36-16 making 20.8 units since 1997. Play on all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 and is below average AL hitting team hitting <=.265) against a team with a very good bullpen sporting an ERA <=3.33 and with a hot starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. As starter Cahill is 16-8 (+11.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons; 10-4 (+8.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a good team winning between 54% to 62% of their games over the last 2 seasons. Minnesota is not in a good spot here noting they are 4-15 (-12.0 Units) against the money line in road games after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no runs over the last 2 seasons. Take Cahill and the As.
BEN BURNS
Tigers @ Royals
PICK: Under 9
These teams have played a number of high-scoring games against each other this season and yesterday's series opener finished above the number. However, with both starters in solid current form, I expect a fairly well-pitched affair here.
Verlander goes for the Tigers. He's gone six or more innings in six straight starts and he's allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven. Over that 7-game stretch, he's allowed just 13 earned runs in 50 innings. That translates to a 2.34 ERA, which is outstanding. Not surprisingly, five of those seven starts fell below the total.
Verlander should be happy to see KC. He's 9-2 with a stellar 2.58 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 15 starts vs. the Royals.
Hochever gets the call for the home team. While he didn't pitch very well last time out, he's still 2-1 with a 3.75 ERA his last three starts. His 0.958 WHIP over those three starts reveals that's he's been giving up very few baserunners and he's had 18 K's to just four walks, during that stretch.
Hochever, who has seen each of his last two starts stay below the total, has pitched well against Detroit this season. In two starts vs. the Tigers this year, he's recorded a 2.84 ERA. Note that he's also pitched much better at home, than he has on the road. In this season's lone home start vs. the Tigers, he allowed just five hits, through 7 2/3 shutout innings. That game finished with a score of 3-2. Consider the Under
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Astros -107
The Cubs have been held to 1 run in 5 of their last 7 games, and runs figure to be hard to come by for the Cubbies again tonight as they are up against Houston ace Roy Oswalt. The Astros have won each of Oswalt's last 3 starts against the Cubs and they have also won 4 of his last 5 starts when he faces off with Dempster. Dempster is just 4-15 on the money line lifetime against the Astros and the Cubs are 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. the Astros. Houston has shown some life at the plate, winning 4 straight while scoring 22 runs. I expect the bats to stay hot tonight and for Oswalt to take care of the rest.
Craig Trapp
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
Well we have stayed away from HOU all year but don't look now HOU has won 4 in a row and have their ace Oswald on the mound. His record is not what we are used to but still his ERA and strikeouts are right near the top of the league. His last three starts against the Cubs he is an impressive 2-0 with a 1.15 ERA. On the other side we have the struggling Cubs who have lost 4 in a row and are turning to Dempster who has struggled just as much lately. In fact he is 1-5 with a 4.35 ERA in his last seven starts. The Cubs at the plate has been a problem all season but in the last four they are hitting under .250. On the other side HOU has picked it up and in the last four are hitting over .300. Great value on the better pitcher and the hotter team at home.