Stan Lisowski
DETROIT
Tigers look to bounce back off Friday’s loss against the Royals with the ace of their staff on the hill for them tonight. Verlander has a 9-2 lifetime mark vs. KC while Detroit is 7-4 in his outings this year. Royals are just 8-15 off of a win this season.
Jr. O'Donnell
OAK A'S + 105
Last night's Under Phillies /Pads puts us on another night sharpie! Oakland A's in a nice spot here on Saturday night as no one will stand in front of the 32-23 Francisco Liriano train tonight but JR O. Looking at the 29 -27 Oakland A's tonight behind Trevor Cahill , this is a nice value play from JR O'S CAMP. The A's lost a tough extra inning battle late Friday and the Minny Hurler Lirenao has been beat up real good by the A's in the past. 1-2 and close to a ballooning 6 ERA. Cahill has a under 3 ERA vs these Twins and their big bats. The A's are JR O sharpie here tonight late.
DAVID MALINSKY
ST. LOUIS over MILWAUKEE
This is a low price for the abysmal package that the Brewers bring to Busch Stadium this afternoon. It is one thing to be 8-16 on the road, but another matter entirely when half of those defeats have come by four runs or more, and note that in 17 road games against teams that currently sport winning records it has been a 4-13 slide, getting out-scored by a frightening 42 runs in the process. The problems are easy to see – a pitching staff that does not blow the ball by opposing hitters is being hampered by a defense that rates dead last in the Majors on both of our best sets of ratings, and as the losses pile up that defense gets even worse. That is a sign of effort and concentration not being there, and the 8-0 drubbing to open this series does not help to turn that clubhouse mood around.
Neither does the presence of Chris Narveson. Narveson has managed to get four W’s attached next to his name so far but there has been nothing to like – a 5.81 ERA looks bad enough, without factoring that of the 131 pitchers that have worked at least 40 innings, his difficulty of batters faced is #110. His command has been precarious, with only one of eight starts coming in at less than 17.3 PPI, and three at 20.4 or higher, and he has shown little ability to eat innings, with those eight starts only burning through 38 frames. That pulls a struggling bullpen (5.18 for the full season) firmly into play again, and makes for a long afternoon against a resurgent offense.
While the Brewers stumble, the Cardinals are 18-9 at home, and after going through an unexpected offensive slump have turned it around to score 56 runs over their last eight games. We have no problem laying this price with Adam Ottavino for his career debut form this mound because it sets up well for Tony LaRussa, who has not had to get a single pitch from anyone in his bullpen since Wednesday, and that was just one frame from Kyle McClellan. That means a chance for Ottavino to make a couple of good passes through a lineup that lacks any experience against him, and then things go to the capable hands of a relief corps working at a solid 2.81 for the full season. While Ottavino’s bottom line for his first start at Chicago would not send off any fireworks, note that 13 of the 15 batters he retired came via a K or a ground ball, and you know how much we like that kind of count.
Jack Jones
Detroit Tigers -148
I'll take the Tigers behind Ace Justin Verlander to bounce back from their 3-7 loss to the lowly Kansas City Royals last night. Verlander is 5-4 with 3.75 ERA and 1.111 WHIP this season while striking out 67 batters in 72 innings. He has only given up 56 hits as well. Verlander is an outstanding 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA and 1.134 WHIP in 15 career starts vs. Kansas City. Royals' starter Luke Hochevar has posted a 5.53 ERA and 1.554 WHIP in five career starts vs. Detroit.
Kansas City is 16-42 against the money line in home games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better since 1997. Verlander may go the distance tonight, but if he doesn't he has the support of a superb bullpen that has posted a 2.86 ERA this season and a 2.41 ERA in road games. Verlander is 36-13 against the money line vs. teams outscored by opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997. The Tigers are 21-7 against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. Verlander is 9-1 against the money line on the road when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 2 seasons. The Royals are just 2-9 in Hochevar's last 11 road starts. The Royals are 8-26 against the money line when playing on Saturday over the last 2 seasons. Roll with Detroit Saturday behind Verlander.
Dave Price
1 Unit on LA Dodgers -114
Billingsley is dealing and the Dodgers have won his last 5 starts as a result. This is a team that has won 21 of its last 28 overall and 17 of its last 22 in the chalk. The Braves have been a pure fade as underdogs as they are just 3-12 in their last 15 games in the role. Plus, they are 0-4 in Hanson's last 4 starts as an underdog. We'll take the Dodgers at home at a good price tonight.
EZWINNERS
Boston Red Sox -191
The Orioles are a mess. Baltimore is the worst team in baseball, they have fired their manager and they are facing a pitcher today that they have never beat. Boston's starting pitcher Jon Lester is a perfect 10-0 in his career against the Orioles with an ERA of only 2.22. Baltimore starting pitcher Jermie Gutherie has not had much success against the Red Sox as he is just 1-5 with an ERA of 4.72. Boston is 68-30 in their last 98 games in Baltimore and I expect that domination to continue. Play on Boston.
Charlie Scott
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Colorado Rockies
Expect the Rockies to bounce back tonight after giving the game away last night in the bottom of the 9th. Pitcher Dontrelle Willis makes his AZ debut tonight and should get hit hard, while AZ doesn't have good middle relief pitchers. Play on the better team vs an aging star that just doesn't have it anymore at a nice price.
Dennis Macklin
San Francisco Giants vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Play: Pittsburgh Pirates
I know that it's hard to even get the words out of your mouth but you almost always have shot backing Paul Maholm at home against anybody. In fact, July 17th of last year, Maholm stepped on this same rubber and beat Tim Lincecum 2-1 giving up just one run on only four hits with a sweet 0/7 BB/K ratio. All he has to beat today is Todd Wellemeyer who is 4-2 LT versus the Bucs but with an ERA of close to 5.00 Last time Wellemeyer was at PNC, the homies smoked him for seven runs on 9 hits in four and change of 7-1 loss. Hold your nose with Pitt and breath through your mouth until you cash your ticket.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Houston Astros -107
The Cubs have been held to 1 run in 5 of their last 7 games, and runs figure to be hard to come by for the Cubbies again tonight as they are up against Houston ace Roy Oswalt. The Astros have won each of Oswalt's last 3 starts against the Cubs and they have also won 4 of his last 5 starts when he faces off with Dempster. Dempster is just 4-15 on the money line lifetime against the Astros and the Cubs are 0-6 in his last 6 starts vs. the Astros. Houston has shown some life at the plate, winning 4 straight while scoring 22 runs. I expect the bats to stay hot tonight and for Oswalt to take care of the rest.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Angels -129
The Angels' domination of the Mariners continues Saturday as they aim for their 4th straight win over Seattle. Los Angeles has been dominating everyone of late, winners of 6 of their last 7 and 8 of their past 10 games overall. Starter Ervin Santana is 5-3 with a 3.43 ERA this season, 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA on the road and 3-0 with a 1.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Mariners' starter Ryan Rowland-Smith is 0-4 with a 7.24 ERA this season and 0-3 with a 14.40 ERA and 2.800 WHIP in his last 3 starts. The Angels are 40-16 (+19.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons. The Angels are 37-14 in their last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Los Angeles is 29-13 in Santana's last 42 starts vs. American League West foes. Take the Angels on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on Chicago White Sox -152
Reasons the White Sox win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - All favorites with a money line of -150 or more (CHI WHITE SOX) - below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=4.20) -AL, with a starting pitcher who strikes out 5 or more batters per start. This is a 93-22 ML System hitting 80.9% since 1997 and gaining +55 units. This system is a perfect 9-0 this season. Peavy has struck out 35 batters in 30.1 innings pitched at home this year. Bet the White Sox at home.
O.C. Dooley
Padres/Phillies Over 9
This is a very high posted total considering that the slumping Philadelphia offense has not scored more than 3 runs in 12 consecutive contests where the collective batting average (.197) has been horrific. To make matters worse the Phillies this weekend are dealing with an outstanding San Diego pitching staff which leads the majors in ERA (2.97) and bullpen ERA (2.77). But the fact of the matter is that Jon Garland has struggled against Philadelphia in his career with an EIGHT ERA. This evening Garland goes up against 47-year old Jamie Moyer who has gone winless in the last 3 trips to the mound. Last night we had an excellent pitching matchup which included Roy Halladay but note the Padres offense actually collected "double digits" in the hit column. Here is an approaching 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (71-32 long term in the National League with a posted total of 8'-to-10 runs) which plays teams like San Diego with an excellent bullpen ERA of 3.00 or better OVER the total, against an opposing pitcher whose ERA is between the 4.20 and 4.70 mark. Due to the fact that the Padres bullpen already has 13 wins and 19 saves to its credit, OVER the total is a 70% wager according to that system which kicks in this evening
Wunderdog
Angels vs. Mariners
Play: Under 8.5
The Angels’ lack of offense vs. lefties has led to a 10-3 mark to the UNDER in their last 13 (74-50 UNDER vs. southpaws over the past three seasons). The Mariners, scoring just 3.6 runs per game (3.2 in day games and 3.1 in division games) are chalking up UNDERs as a home favorite of -110 to -150 to the tune of 19-7-1 in their last 27.
Hollywood Sports
Cincinnati Reds at Washington Nationals
Prediction: Cincinnati Reds
Cincy sends out their rookie Mike Leake who has dominant in his first campaign. Leake enjoys a perfect 4-0 record with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP. The Reds should support Leake tonight as they have won 17 of their last 22 road games against teams with a losing record. Washington has also lost 8 of their last 10 games as an underdog in the +110 to +150 range. The Nationals counter with Luis Atilano who is 5-1 with a 4.70 ERA and high 1.52 WHIP for the year. Over his last three starts, Atilano has a 6.06 ERA. And at home, Atilano sports a 7.47 ERA with a 1.98 WHIP and a .318 opponent's batting average. Cincys should hit him hard as they have won 12 of their last 17 games against a right-hander. The Nationals have also lost 36 of their last 53 home games against a team with a winning record. Take the money line on the Reds while listing both pitchers.