SPORTS ADVISORS
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (21-14) at Cincinnati (19-16)
The top two teams in the National League Central continue a three-game series at Great American Ballpark, as red-hot Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright (5-1, 2.08) is set to oppose Reds rookie Mike Leake (3-0, 3.10).
St. Louis snapped a three-game skid with a 4-3 victory in Friday’s series opener, jumping out to a 4-0 lead and holding on late. The Cardinals remain just 3-7 in their last 10 games (3-4 on the road), and they’re in additional slumps of 2-4 against N.L. Central rivals, 5-9 against winning teams, 1-5 versus right-handed starters, 2-5 on Saturday and 2-6 in the second game of a series
Cincinnati had its five-game winning streak – all against the N.L. Central – halted with Friday’s loss and fell 1½ games behind the Cardinals in the division race. The Reds, who had outscored their opponents 35-6 during their five-game winning streak, have still won five of eight at home, but they’ve lost 23 of their last 32 Saturday contests.
This is already the third time these rivals have squared off in a series this season. St. Louis has won five of the seven contests, and going back to last year, the Redbirds are on a 6-2 roll against Cincinnati.
Wainwright is coming off his 13th consecutive quality start – at least six innings pitched while allowing three earned runs or fewer – as he held the Pirates to two runs on five hits in six innings on Sunday, rolling to an 11-4 road win. Wainwright has now held seven of eight opponents to two earned runs or less, and going back to the middle of last June, the right-hander has had 26 quality starts in his last 27 trips to the mound, yielding two earned runs or fewer in 24 of those 27 contests. He’s also gone 14 straight starts without walking more than two batters in a game.
With Wainwright starting, the Cardinals have won 38 of 54 games overall, 20 of 26 on the road, 24 of 32 against division rivals, 25 of 32 against winning teams and nine of 13 on Saturday. He’s 2-1 with a 2.17 ERA in four road outings this year, including a 6-3 victory in Cincinnati on April (two runs, three hits in seven innings). With that win, he’s now 2-2 with a 4.46 ERA in 10 games (five starts) versus the Reds (1-1, 5.14 ERA in five games and three starts at Great American Ballpark).
Leake is off to a strong rookie season, giving up three earned runs or fewer in five of his first six starts, while pitching at least six innings in every game. On Sunday against the Cubs, he surrendered three runs on four hits in seven innings of a 5-3 home victory, so he’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in his last three trips to the mound.
Cincinnati is 5-1 in Leake’s six outings this year, including 3-0 at home, where the right-hander is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA. He has yet to face St. Louis in his brief career.
St. Louis is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 23-10-1 overall, 9-2 on the road, 12-4-1 within the division, 5-0-2 on Saturday and 8-2 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 3-0-2 on Saturday and 5-1-2 when facing right-handed starters at home.
Finally, the under is 4-0-1 in the last five series meetings, but 10 of the last 14 clashes in Cincinnati have hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Minnesota (22-13) at N.Y. Yankees (23-11)
Andy Pettitte (4-0, 2.08) is scheduled to return to the mound for the first time in 10 days as he leads the Yankees against Francisco Liriano (4-1, 2.36) and the Twins in the middle game of a three-game series at Yankee Stadium.
Alex Rodriguez hit a grand slam to highlight a four-run seventh inning as New York rallied for an 8-4 victory Friday. Prior to last night, the Yankees had lost four of five games to end a road trip, a slump that came on the heels of a six-game winning streak. Still, New York remains on upticks of 99-43 overall, 49-11 at Yankee Stadium (11-2 this year), 38-14 against the A.L. Central, 6-1 on Saturday and 44-10 when facing right-handed starters at home.
Minnesota has still won seven of 11, and it is on further hot streaks of 39-20 overall, 16-5 against left-handed starters and 7-2 on Saturday. However, they’ve now lost 43 of 63 against the A.L. East and 41 of 61 on the road against southpaw starters.
The Yankees swept the Twins out of the best-of-5 American League Division Series last October, finishing the year 10-0 against Minnesota, so they’ve now won 11 straight in this lopsided rivalry, which has seen New York win 51 of the last 67 meetings overall and 28 of the last 33 in the Bronx.
Liriano is coming off his first loss of the season, falling 7-3 to the Orioles on Saturday as he gave up five runs on 10 hits in six innings. Prior to that, Liriano had surrendered a total of six runs in his first five starts covering 36 innings, and the Twins won all five games. Liriano is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in three road contests.
Minnesota has dropped five of Liriano’s last six starts against the A.L. East. That includes two losses to the Yankees last year (5-4 on the road, 6-4 at home), with the lefty giving up seven runs (four earned) in 11 1/3 innings. Throw in one relief appearance, and Liriano is 0-1 with a 2.77 ERA in 13 innings pitched against New York.
Pettitte picked up a 7-5 home win over the Orioles in his most recent start on May 5, but was forced to leave the game after five innings because of elbow discomfort, and he’s been sidelined since. The 37-year-old veteran has held five of his six opponents to two runs or fewer, and the Yankees are undefeated in his last nine trips to the mound (playoffs included) and his last six starts at home.
New York is 22-8 in Pettitte’s last 30 starts overall, 84-38 in his last 122 home outings and 22-8 in his last 30 against the A.L. Central. Also, including the playoffs, the Yankees are 6-1 in Pettitte’s last seven starts against the Twins and 5-1 in his last six home outings against Minnesota. For his career, Pettitte is 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 21 starts (two playoffs) against Minnesota.
The Twins are on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 20-5-2 against the A.L. East, 6-1 against left-handed starters and 5-2 in Liriano’s last seven starts. Likewise, the Yankees have stayed low in four of five overall, and the under is 16-8-1 in their last 25 home games, 8-4-1 in their last 13 against the A.L. Central (4-0 last four) and 6-2 in Pettitte’s last eight starts against the Central. However, the over has cashed in five of New York’s last six on Saturday and four of Pettitte’s last five home outings.
Finally, even though Friday’s contest flew over the posted price, the under is 29-12-4 in the last 45 Twins-Yankees battles in the Bronx, and all three playoff meetings in October stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES and UNDER
John Ryan
Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Texas Rangers
3* graded play on Texas as the take on Toronto set to start at 1:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Texas will win this game. Texas lost to Toronto 16-10 last night where 20 of these 26 runs were scored in the first 5 innings. Teams that score 15 or more runs have a significant probability to struggle to score runs in the next game. Texas is in a strong position here for a win noting they are a perfect 7-0 (+8.1 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better this season. A Whip below 1.300 indicates that the starter has command of the strike zone, but Texas is a team that despite being very youg can attack balls pitched consistently in the strike zone. They are also a gap hitting team and this type of hitting can produce big innings. Take Texas.
Jeff Hochman
Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Baltimore Orioles -132
Every pitcher is prone to the occasional clunker and Matusz's first of 2010 came in his last start on Sunday in a 6-0 loss at Minnesota. The left-hander didn't get out of the fourth inning, the second-shortest outing of his brief Major League career. He gave up a season-high 6 earned runs. Brian Matusz is a promising young lefty in the game today with four high quality pitches. He has 33 K's/14 BB in 40.1 innings. That's a good sign. Take a look at opposing starter, Mich Talbot. He has thrown 39.1 innings and has 16 K's/19 BB. When a starting pitcher has more Walks than K's you know he has been "fighting" it. The Indians are hitting .211 on the road vs. left-handed starters this season and will now face a very good one. Take the O's!
Steve Merril
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City
Play: Kansas City Royals +1.5
Kansas City has won two straight games and will go for a third behind Luke Hochevar. The righty is 3-1 with a 5.64 ERA this season. His ERA dips to 2.51 in his two starts at home. He defeated the White Sox May 4th as he gave up just three hits and one run in six innings of work. Hochevar has won three straight decisions against the White Sox because AJ Pierzynski (2-14), Paul Konerko (2-12), Alex Rios (1-12), Carlos Quentin (2-8), Andruw Jones (0-6), Mark Kotsay (0-6), Ramon Castro (0-5), Omar Vizquel (904) and Mark Teahen (0-2) all have struggled against him. As a team, Chicago is hitting just .232 against right-handers and just .230 on the season overall. The White Sox are just 5-11 on the road and 5-10 against the rest of the AL Central. Chicago’s Jake Peavy gets the start tonight and he is 2-2 with a 5.57 ERA. On the road, the righty is 0-1 with a 6.98 ERA. He's shown flashes of inconsistency and wildness walking 11 in 19.3 innings of work away from home. Kansas City is hitting .305 against divisional opponents while averaging 4.6 runs per game. The Royals should continue to play well here, and we’ll recommend taking them on the run line in this game tonight.
Charlie Scott
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
By playing the Phillies we're playing on the superior team and getting good odds. Phillies starter Blanton is a serviceable MLB pitcher, while the Phillies have the edge in releif. The Phillies are probably the best team right now in the NL, with an 11-7 record on the road, while the Brewers are 4-12 @ Home. The Oddsmaker made a mistake
Rob Vinciletti
Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Cleveland Indians
Baltimore fits a system here that has favorites at just 12-24 which is rare for a system to be 12 games over .500 for the dog. What we want to do is play against home favorites of less than -200 if they are a home favorite and off a win of 5 or more runs as a home favorite vs tonight's opponent, if they had 10+ hits and left 10 or more men on base, vs an opponent who scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. Cleveland looks like a solid dog tonight. The Indians have Talbot on the mound tonight and he has a solid 2.60 road era. Baltimore counters with Matusz and he has a 4.73 home era and has lost 5 of 7 starts. The Indians have a nice bullpen advantage too as they have a 3.21 road era and have won 5 of 7 vs losing teams. Look for Cleveland to get game 2 of the series tonight.
BIG AL
New York Mets @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Florida Marlins
Nate Robertson gets the start for the Fish, and he's dominated New York bats in his career. The veteran lefty is 1-0 in his starts, with a 2.13 ERA and a sparkling WHIP of 0.86! That's one reason I like Florida. Another is that the Mets have been dreadful in nighttime road games over the past couple of years. They lost 7-2 to the Marlins last night, and 2-1 on Friday, and have now dropped 47 of their last 63 in this situation! John Maine has also struggled on the road this year, with an 0-1 record in three starts, and a dismal 7.71 ERA. Take Florida to win the 3rd game of this series.
Black Widow
1* on Los Angeles Dodgers -118
Clayton Kershaw is coming off his best outing of the season, pitching 8 scoreless inning while allowing just 5 base runners and striking out 9 batters in a 2-0 victory over Ubaldo Jimenez and the Rockies. Kershaw has posted a 3.03 ERA in 7 career starts vs. San Diego, while Kevin Correia has posted a 5.08 ERA in seven career starts against Los Angeles. The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games, outscoring their opponents 32-12. We certainly have the better starter in this match-up and we have the better offense as well by backing the Dodgers in this one. The Dodgers are scoring 5.3 runs/game overall, 5.7 runs/game on the road and 6.0 runs/game against righty starters. Meanwhile, the Padres are hitting just .223 and scoring a mere 3.9 runs/game against lefty starters this season. The Dodgers are 54-26 in their last 80 vs. National League West opponents. They have owned this division over the past couple seasons. The Dodgers are 4-0 in Kershaw's last 4 starts vs. National League West foes. Take the Dodgers on the Money Line.
Info Plays
3* on San Francisco Giants -214
Reasons the Giants win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - All underdogs with a money line of +175 to +250 (HOUSTON) - cold hitting team - batting .250 or worse over their last 20 games against opponent with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. This is a 53-3 ML System hitting 94.8% over the last 5 seasons. Rarely do we like to back a team at -200 or more, but with this system we'll gladly take the Giants behind Ace Tim Lincecum.
2.) Lincecum is 4-0 with a 1.86 ERA and 0.910 WHIP this season, and the Giants are 6-1 in his seven starts. Lincecum is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 0.737 WHIP in six lifetime starts vs. Houston. The two-time defending NL Cy Young winner is as close to a sure thing as you will find in baseball. Bet the Giants at home.
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -129
The Minnesota Twins simply cannot get over the hump against the Yankees. The Twins are 0-10 in ten road meetings with New York over the past three seasons after last night's 7-4 loss to the Yankees. New York is now 28-5 in their last 33 home meetings with Minnesota overall, and really the Yankees should be a heavier home favorite Saturday.
The Yankees are 6-1 in Andy Pettitte's last 7 starts vs. Twins. Pettitte is 11-4 with a 3.52 ERA in 19 starts vs. Minnesota throughout his career. Francisco Liriano is winless in two starts vs. New York, and he is coming off his worst outing of the season. Liriano allowed 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 6 innings of a 3-7 loss to the lowly Orioles just seven days ago. Pettitte is 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA this season for the Yankees, and New York is 6-0 in his six 2010 starts. The value here is too good to pass up as the Yankees continue having the Twins' number. Take New York.
Dave Price
1 Unit on NY Yankees -129
The Yankees have owned the Twins. Over the last 3 seasons, New York is 17-4 against Minnesota, including a perfect 10-0 at home. The domination doesn't stop there either. The Twins are just 16-51 in the last 67 meetings overall and only 5-28 in their last 33 meetings in New York. Pettitte is off to a sizzling 6-0 start on the money line and the Yankees are 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the Twins. The Yankees are now 49-11 in their last 60 home games. I'll back them at home again Saturday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Phillies/Brewers OVER 9.5 Runs
We saw these two teams put a total of 14 runs on the board Friday and I expect another high scoring game today. Blanton (4.97 ERA) and Narveson (5.06) have both been higher ERA pitchers this season. Plus, Milwaukee has been an overs machine, playing to the Over in 9 of its last 11 games. The Over is 10-1 in the Phillies' last 11 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5 and 5-0 in Blanton's last 5 road starts. The Over is 15-4-3 in the Brewers' last 22 home games and 23-5-4 in their last 32 games vs. a right-handed starter. Bet the Over.
Jim Feist
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels
Play: Oakland Athletics
One of the biggest surprises on the young season is how bad the Angels' offense slipped, ranked 10th in the AL in runs. They lost some key offensive cogs during the offseason and newcomer Matsui has been terrible. The team has been shut down by quality pitching and they face a very good one here in Oakland A's righty Justin Duchscherer (2.89 ERA). He is an underdog here, yet has owned the Angels in his career, with a 6-0 record and a 1.44 ERA against them. Play the Oakland A's.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on NY Mets +109
After dropping the first two games of this series, look for the Mets to finally bounce back in game 3. Plain and simple, I feel John Maine gives the Mets a better chance to win than Nate Robertson does the Marlins. For whatever reason, Robertson just doesn't perform well at home. This season, he's 0-2 (0-3 on the money line) with an ERA of 6.28 in his home starts. Looking back, Robertson is on a 2-16 skid against the money line at home when the money line is -100 to -125 and he's on a 1-9 money line slide at home when the money line is +125 to -125. Maine has settled in over his last 3 starts, going 2-1 on the money line with a 2.50 ERA. And he has good career numbers against the Fish. He's 5-2 lifetime when starting against Florida with an ERA of 3.45. In addition, the Mets are 20-8 in Maine's last 28 starts following a team loss in their previous game. Bet the Mets.
EZWINNERS
Atlanta Braves -206
Atlanta is playing pretty well right now as they are currently on a four game winning streak. The Braves are facing a struggling Diamondbacks team that has lost seven straight games. During this skid the Arizona offense is averaging less than three runs per game and I don't see them having much success against the Braves starting pitcher Tommy Hanson who has been pitching very well. Hanson pitched eight scoreless innings while striking out eight in the Braves 8-2 victory over the Brewers on Monday and is 2-0 in his last three start with an ERA of only 2.45. Arizona's starting pitcher Rodrigo Lopez has not been spectacular this season and he has not had much success against Atlanta in the past. In four career starts against the Braves Lopez is 0-3 with an ERA of 3.46 and the Atlanta bats look like they have finally got on track after scoring 28 runs in the three game series sweep against the Brewers and another six runs last night in the first game of this series with the D-Backs. The Braves are 10-4 in Hanson's last fourteen home starts and I expect that success to continue again today. Play on Atlanta.