Nelly
Cleveland + over Baltimore
Mitch Talbot has pitched effectively for the Indians this season while Cleveland is a losing team overall, the Indians are 4-2 when Talbot starts. He has also pitched far better on the road with a 2.60 ERA and he will face an Orioles team with the worst record in baseball. Baltimore is a losing team at home, hitting just .251 at Camden Yards and in the last ten games the Orioles are batting just .209 against right-handed pitching. Cleveland has had the superior bullpen in this match-up and while Brian Matusz is a more acclaimed young pitcher, he has not been better this season. Baltimore is 0-4 in his last four outings and he has allowed at least three runs in every start since his 2010 debut. Matusz can compile strikeouts but he allows a lot of hits and Baltimore is yet to win behind him at home. Cleveland won five of seven in this series last season and after a rough home stand the Indians played well to win a series in Kansas City. While the Indians have not won a lot of games recently they have been scoring runs, scoring at least four runs in each of the last seven games heading into this series. Baltimore has stolen a few recent wins but the team has failed to top two runs in six of the last ten games. Both teams have been out-scored on the year but the margin is much wider for the Orioles as the Indians are likely to be the more competitive team this season and in this series.
Stephen Nover
Joe Blanton is making his third start for Philadelphia after opening the year on the disabled list because of a strained oblique. Blanton said he is getting closer to where he wants to be, but is not 100 percent yet.
Blanton has a 5.30 ERA in three career starts versus Milwaukee.
The Brewers' lineup gets a big boost with the return of Ryan Braun, one of the best hitting outfielders in baseball. Braun had hit .415 with eight RBIs in his previous nine home games against Philadelphia before last night when he was back in the lineup after missing two games because of a bruised elbow.
Chris Narveson, a converted reliever, has been solid since replacing Jeff Suppan in Milwaukee's starting rotation. Narveson, though, doesn't have a high ceiling and doesn't figure to go deep into the game, which puts the Brewers' horrendous bullpen into the handicapping equation.
Narveson, a lefty, has yet to reach the seventh inning in his three starts and also hasn't faced a lineup as potent as Philadelphia's. The Brewers have scored 22 runs in Narveson's three starts, making his 3-0 record look deceiving. Narveson's ERA is 5.06.
The Phillies lit up Randy Wolf, a better left-handed pitcher than Narveson, on Friday scoring six runs off him on seven hits and two walks in five innings.
The Phillies could get back Carlos Ruiz, who is batting .345. He's been out with a knee injury. The over has cashed the past five times the teams have played at Miller Park.
I am 7-2 on my last nine baseball plays, including cashing on my Friday complementary selection of the Braves.
3♦ PHILLIES/BREWERS OVER
Chuck O'Brien
Despite just missing with the Reds last night, I’ve hit 17 of 24 free-play winners – and five of my last six – and I’m 10-2 with baseball free picks in May! Saturday’s complimentary selection also comes from the National League, as I’ll play the Nationals plus the price at Colorado in Game 2 of a doubleheader.
I backed Washington as a free play in Thursday’s series opener, and the result was a 14-6 beat-down. That puts the Nats at 5-1 in their last six overall and 10-8 on the road this year, and they continue to sit alone in second place in the N.L. East (20-15 record). And when compared to the Rockies (16-18), Washington’s record is 3½ games better in the standings.
On top of all that, Washington has without question the hotter starting pitcher going in Game 2 tonight. Since being called up to the big leagues, rookie Luis Atilano has gone 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA, including 2-0 with a 1.59 ERA in two road games. Take away one poor start (six runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings against the Braves), and Atilano has yielded just three runs in his other three starts totaling 17 1/3 innings (1.56 ERA).
Now compare Atilano’s numbers with those of Rockies right-hander Jason Hamel: 0-2, 9.16 ERA in four starts (all Colorado losses). He’s surrendered 19 earned runs, 28 hits and eight walks in 18 2/3 innings. Hamel returns from a 15-day stint on the disabled list (he was supposed to pitch the second game of a doubleheader against the Phillies on Wednesday but it got rained out), and he hasn’t been on a big-league mound since April 26 when he allowed five runs in three innings of a 5-3 home loss to Arizona.
In a nutshell, Hamel has no business being favored in any game right now, let alone against an opposing pitcher who’s been as good as Atilano and against a Washington team that’s red hot and that has produced 26 runs in its three games (all on the road).
3♦ WASHINGTON (GAME 2 OF DOUBLEHEADER)
Bobby Maxwell
Got the FREE winner Friday night with the Dodgers cashing as a plus-money underdog, improving my comp run to 96-74-3. Today I'm right back on the diamond with a freebie coming on the Twins as they get the job done in New York against the Yankees.
Even with Friday’s loss, Minnesota has won seven of its last 11 and 39 of its last 50 dating back to last season. Plus you know there’s still some anger there for the Yankees sweeping the Twins right out of the playoffs last season.
On the hill tonight for the Twins is Francisco Liriano (4-1, 2.36 ERA). He suffered his first loss of the season a week ago, losing to the Orioles 7-3. Prior to that he had only allowed a total of six runs in five starts and the Twins had won all five. On the road this season, Liriano is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA. Against the Yankees, he’s 0-1 but his ERA is just 2.77 in 13 innings.
Andy Pettitte (4-0, 2.08 ERA) is on the mound for the Yankees, pitching for the first time in 10 days. He had some elbow issues in his last start on May 5 and this will be the first time he tests it since the problem. The 37-year-old hurler is not going to heal all that quickly and you might see a short stint from him today.
The Twins’ struggles with the Yankees is very well documented, losing 11 straight in this series and 51 of the last 67. But Minnesota has got to get over the hump and a healthy Liriano is just the recipe they will need. Play the plus-money with the Twins in this one as they can shut down the New York offense.
Play the Twins in the Bronx today.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Chris Jordan
Scored the Orioles Thursday night, scored the Angels last night and tonight I am back on the Orioles.
Baltimore claimed its first series win in almost two weeks on Thursday, as the Orioles won the rubber match against the Mariners. They looked good in rolling to the series-opening win over Cleveland last night, an 8-1 victory, to nab their third straight.
The Indians have now lost in a row, after losing their final game of a three-game set in Kansas City and last night's contest in Baltimore. This will make Cleveland's fifth road game in as many nights. And in riding a 7-14 slide since a four-game win streak in mid-April, I'd have to say this is a weary team with no pep in its step.
The Tribe rolls in on additional skids of 0-8 versus the AL East, 1-4 against southpaws and 2-9 on the road against lefties.
Baltimore, on the other hand, is in on winning streaks of 5-0 at home versus right-handed hurlers, 6-1 at home, 5-2 after a win and 5-1 after scoring five or more in its previous outing.
All O's tonight.
3♦ ORIOLES
Karl Garrett
Another comp play winner on Friday as the Braves come back to get the job done. Now 7-1 the last 8 days with my comp plays.
For Saturday, I am feeling a RUN LINE winner on Boston as they face Dontrelle Willis and the Tigers.
Dontrelle missed his last scheduled start, and something is telling the G-Man that the D-Train is going to get derailed this evening against the BoSox. Willis' last start against Boston back last season saw 5 runs cross in just 2 innings of work, and I would not be surprised by a similar line this Saturday night.
Jon Lester has been bringing it of late, as the southpaws last 4 starts have seen just 3 earned runs score in his last 27-plus innings of work. In that span, Lester has whiffed 30 batters, and has allowed just 14 hits.
The Tigers have been tough at Comerica this season, but tonight they get tamed by Lester.
Go ahead and back Boston on the RUN LINE, as they cruise by Detroit with ease once again.
2♦ BOSTON -1.5
Brett Atkins
Hit my second straight free winner on Friday night when the Phillies went into Milwaukee and knocked around the Brewers. Tonight I have a comp winner out West in the National League as the Padres will get it done at home ove the Dodgers.
The Padres have righty Kevin Correia (4-2, 3.97 ERA) on the hill tonight for the first time since his brother died in a hiking accident last week. He’s going to come out very emotional and when he gets through that first inning, expect him to find a groove and deliver a gem.
His teams have won four straight against the Dodgers when he starts and he is 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA at home this season.
Clayton Kershaw has a 4.22 ERA on the road for Los Angeles and last time he threw in Petco Park in San Diego, the Padres got a 4-3 win.
It was a tough loss for San Diego on Friday and they won’t let it happen again tonight. Play the Padres to get this one.
5♦ SAN DIEGO
Joel Tyson
The Royals gave Trey Hillman the axe, and while their season has been somewhat of a bust, I do expect them to get a boost with the capable Ned Yost now in the dugout.
I am calling for an underdog win tonight at home, as Luke Hochevar matches pitches with Jake Peavy.
No doubt Peavy is starting to figure out the junior circut, as Peavy has strung together a pair of wins in which he has allowed only 2 runs over 15 innings pitched. It should be noted that both of those wins came at home. Peavy's last road start saw him get torched for 6 runs in a 6 inning loss at Texas.
Luke Hochevar twirled 6 scoreless on May 4th in a win at Chicago, and is now 3-0 in his last 3 starts against the Pale Hose dating back to last season, with 15 scoreless frames under his belt.
I know it is a stretch, but if Hochevar can pitch that way again, and the Royals can give Peavy a tough time on the road, I can see KC posting the dog win once again tonight.
1♦ KANSAS CITY
Jeff Benton
Another incredibly easy freebie winner Friday, as the Phillies pounded Milwaukee. That’s now four straight free-play winners (all in baseball), I’m on additional runs of 74-42-2 and 35-20 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, I’ll head to Baltimore and play the Indians as an underdog against the Orioles.
The name “Mitch Talbot” probably doesn’t ring a bell for most baseball fans, but for professional handicappers, Talbot’s name has been synonymous with cash this year. He’s 4-2 with a 3.43 ERA in six starts, and prior to Friday’s results, he ranked as the 15th best “money” pitcher in baseball (meaning among starting pitchers, he’s the 15th most profitable).
True, Talbot has come back to earth a bit in his last two outings (nine runs allowed in 13 innings after giving up just two earned runs in his previous three starts totaling 21 1/3 innings). But the right-hander has had a real stinker of an outing. He’s pitched at least five innings in every game, going at least six four times, and even in his worst start – five runs, eight hits, four walks allowed in a 5-1 loss to Toronto – he still went eight innings). And that was Talbot’s only loss in his last five trips to the mound.
On the flip side is young Orioles lefty Brian Matusz. No doubt Matusz has greater upside than Talbot and he’s got a brighter pro future ahead of him. That said, he’s been below average this year, going 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA, including 0-3 with a 5.74 ERA in his last three starts – three games in which the anemic Baltimore offense scored a grand total of one run (while allowing 14). The O’s have actually lost four straight and five of six behind Matusz, who is coming off his worst outing of the year (six runs in 3 2/3 innings of a 6-0 loss at the Twins).
Bottom line: I know Baltimore (an 8-1 winner last night) is playing better baseball of late, but the O’s still have no business laying this kind of number against a quality pitcher like Talbot.
4♦ CLEVELAND INDIANS
Rocketman
Philadelphia @ Milwaukee
Play: Philadelphia -105
Philadelphia is 32-15 the past 3 years on the road with the money line -100 to -125. Milwaukee is 4-12 at home this year. Milwaukee is 2-7 this year at home when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Milwaukee has lost 4 in a row. Philadelphia has won 7 of their last 9 games overall. Philadelphia is scoring 5.5 runs per game overall this year, 5.6 runs per game on the road and 5.6 runs per game against left handed starters this year. Philadelphia has a 3.50 ERA on the road this year. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.68 ERA overall this year and a 6.67 ERA at home this season. Blanton is 2-1 overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia today!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have played just 12 of their 34 games this season at home. At home they are 8-4, on the road they are just 8-14. Luckily for them they are back at Turner Field to face a hapless Arizona team that has lost six straight games. In those six losses they were outscored 52-15. Atlanta is 3-0 when after playing seven or more consecutive road games. We say to take a look at Atlanta today as a small home favorite.
Play on: Atlanta Braves
MTi Sports
Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
The Giants are 9-0 at home when they won the last time they faced this starting pitcher. The Astros are 0-9 after a loss in which they allowed 5+ walks for a net profit of $975 when playing against. Finally, the Astros are 0-12 on the road in May with Oswalt when he threw 100+ pitches in his last start and the Giants are 8-0 with Tim Lincecum at home when he had more strike outs than hits allowed in his last start. Consider San Francisco.
Tom Freese
Cleveland Indians at Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Baltimore Orioles
Baltimore Brian Matusz has allowed 4 or less runs in 6 of his 7 starts this year. The Orioles are 6-1 their last 7 home games. The Birds are 5-0 their last 5 games vs. righty starters. Baltimore is 5-1 after scoring 5 runs or more in their last game. Cleveland starter Mitch Talbot is off a phony win in his last start when he allowed twice as many baserunners as innings pitched. The Indians are 7-27 their last 34 road games and they are 0-8 vs. AL East teams. The Indians are 2-9 vs. lefty starters. PLAY ON BALTIMORE
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO –1½ +1.35 over Texas
Scott Feldman had a horseshoe up his rear end last season, as every bounce went his way. He was an average pitcher on an average team and ended up winning 17 games. He’ll be lucky to win half that amount this year. He’s had two good outings thus far, one against the South Side and one against the Mariners. In most of his other starts he’s been torched and on the road he’s been eaten up and spit out. In fact, in two road starts covering just 9.1 innings, Feldman has allowed 17 hits and 11 runs for a BAA of .378. Overall, he’s walked 16 batters and struck out just 22 in 37 frames and that ratio is not going to help your cause at all. Meanwhile, the Jays are feeling it and each player is coming to the plate with a ton of confidence. Both Aaron Hill and Adam Lind went yard last night and once these two get going, look out. The Jays are pounding out hits, doubles and long balls and it’s not likely to stop here. Ricky Romero is a quality pitcher that has a BAA of .218 and an ERA of 3.42. He’s only allowed two bombs in 47 frames. Romero has improved both his strikeout and walk rates while maintaining a tremendous 57% GB rate. He’s clearly building something here, as are the Blue Jays. After a tremendous offensive display last night in front of the first decent crowd since opening day, expect the surging Jays to get right back at it again today. Man, are these guys smacking that ball around. Play: Toronto –1½ +1.35 (Risking 2 units).
Minnesota +1.26 over NY YANKEES
This line is definitely inflated only because it’s the Yankees. Based on the starters, there is just no way that Andy Pettitte should be –1.34 chalk over Francisco Liriano. Liriano’s skill set is as close as ever to his pre-Tommy John surgery levels. He’s already gone through a three game stretch in which he did not allow a single earned run in 23 straight innings. He’s 4-1 with a 2.36 ERA and has not allowed a single jack all season. Furthermore, the Twins are 8-2 against southpaws and while Pettitte has tremendous numbers thus far, you know it’s only a matter of time before he throws in a few stinkers. This could be that day, as he missed his last start due to elbow inflammation. Also note that Pettitte’s numbers at the new Yankee Stadium are worse than at any other park in the majors, with the exception of Camden Yards, in which he’s amassed at least 70 innings. The Yanks are dangerous as hell and they can beat anyone anytime but the Twins are no pushovers and certainly they’re undervalued in this one contest. Play: Minnesota +1.26 (Risking 2 units).
Boston –1½ +1.02 over DETROIT
Don’t forget about Jon Lester. He got off to a rough start but is one of the best lefties in the game and one of the best overall, period. He works quickly and efficiently and he throws strikes. Since that rough start, Lester has allowed only three earned runs in his last four starts. Over that span, he also has a nice 30/10 K/BB. This is his first start ever at Comerica Park and it’s very pitcher-friendly to dominant hurlers like Lester. The Red Sox are definitely warming up and can be considered one of the hottest teams in the majors right now. They’ve won four of five and eight of its last 11. They also possess one of the most patient line-ups in the business and they’ll absolutely make you throw strikes. That could be a problem for Dontrelle Willis, as he can never be trusted to throw strikes. It’s also worth noting that 24% of balls hit off Willis have been line-drives and that’s a sure sign of big trouble. Willis also missed his last start because of the flu and frankly, it would be a shock if he succeeded in this outing. Don’t miss this one. Play: Detroit –1½ +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
NY Mets +1.11 over FLORIDA
John Maine gave up 15 earned runs in his first three starts but has only given up six earned runs in his last four. If you remove his April 13 start at Coors Field, his ERA drops from 5.45 to 3.69. He has 34 K’s in 34 frames and is clearly a better pitcher than Nate Robertson. Robertson has made it six innings only twice in his seven starts this year. He is walking too many batters and RH batters are hitting .301 against him this year. Robertson hasn’t really put together anything of consequence since 2006, and is a poor bet here. Jeff Francoeur and David Wright are a combined .385 against southpaws this year and Robertson might be the worst lefty they’ll have faced all season. Mets plus anything here is a bonus. Play: NY Mets +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
DUNKEL INDEX
Minnesota at NY Yankees
The Yankees look to follow up yesterday's 8-4 win and build on their 10-1 record in Andy Pettitte's last 11 starts after scoring 5 runs or more in the previous game. New York is the pick (-140) according to Dunkel, which has the Yankees favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140)
Game 901-902: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.256; Cubs (Dempster) 13.560
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 12
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-240); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+200); N/A
Game 903-904: Houston at San Francisco (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 15.387; San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.669
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-230); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+190); Over
Game 905-906: Philadelphia at Milwaukee (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 16.527; Milwaukee (Narveson) 14.740
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 907-908: NY Mets at Florida (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.515; Florida (Robertson) 15.599
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Florida (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-125); Over
Game 909-910: Arizona at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Lopez) 13.975; Atlanta (Hanson) 16.358
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-210); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-210); Over
Game 911-912: St. Louis at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.355; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.376
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+135); Under
Game 913-914: Washington at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Atilano) 15.976; Colorado (Hammel) 15.029
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-160); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+140); Over
Game 915-916: LA Dodgers at San Diego (8:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.551; San Diego (Correia) 15.682
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 6
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-120); Under
Game 917-918: Texas at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 15.598; Toronto (Romero) 17.028
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-145); Under
Game 919-920: Minnesota at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.587; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.551
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under
Game 921-922: Seattle at Tampa Bay (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.585; Tampa Bay (Shields) 14.423
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+180); Over
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Baltimore (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 14.382; Baltimore (Matusz) 15.271
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-140); Under
Game 925-926: Boston at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.458; Detroit (Willis) 16.323
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+145); Over
Game 927-928: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Peavy) 15.291; Kansas City (Hochevar) 14.986
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-140); Over
Game 929-930: Oakland at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 13.886; LA Angels (Santana) 15.475
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-135); Over
Game 931-932: Washington at Colorado (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Hernandez) 16.084; Colorado (Jimenez) 14.959
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A