Jimmy Moore
New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay
Pick: New York Yankees
C.C. was beaten by a first time starter in Cleveland in his last start, look for him to come back very focused in this start especially with the big meaning of this series against the Rays. Lay this short favorite number with the Yanks to get the win.
Bobby Maxwell
I'm scoring the FREE winner today on the Braves as they play the rubber match of a three-game series in Cincinnati against the Reds.
These two teams have split the first two games of this series and both desperately want the rubber match as they are both fighting for the top spot in their respective divisions. I’m backing the Braves in this one behind the right arm of Tommy Hanson (8-7, 3.99 ERA).
Atlanta has won three of four over the Reds this season and Hanson has been pitching very well lately, despite not getting much from his offense or his bullpen. He hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last five outings, but the Braves have lost his last three. On Tuesday he went to Washington and held the Nationals to one earned run and struck out eight over six innings but the Braves fell 3-0. In four of his last five roadies, he’s allowed two runs or less.
Hanson would like to erase the memory of his May 20 start against these Reds when he lasted just 1.2 innings, allowing eight runs on eight hits. That is in far contrast to his start in Cincinnati last year when he blanked the Reds for six innings, allowing just three hits in a 7-0 Atlanta victory.
Edinson Volquez (1-1, 8.25 ERA) makes his fourth start since coming off the DL, and things haven’t been very good for him in the last two. On Tuesday in Milwaukee, Volquez gave up four runs in 3.2 innings, but his offense pounded the Brewers for a 12-4 win. His last home outing was July 22 when he gave up six runs in 2.1 innings of a 7-1 loss to the Nationals. He last faced Atlanta on April 24, 2009 when he had a strange pitching line, allowing three runs on one hit, striking out seven and walking seven in five innings of a 4-3 loss.
Atlanta is on positive streaks of 7-3 when Hanson gets four days off, 6-2 when he pitches on the road and 4-0 on the road against winning teams, plus as a team, the Braves are 22-9 against the N.L. Central and 38-14 as a favorite. Cincinnati is on slides of 1-6 on Sunday, 1-4 in the third game of a series and 1-5 as home ‘dogs, plus they are 2-6 in Volquez’s last eight home outings.
Hanson has been consistent for the Braves and Volquez is still trying to find his way since coming off the DL. I’ll take the Braves in this matchup.
5♦ ATLANTA
Karl Garrett
G-Man on a 6-1 comp play run the last 7 days.
For Sunday, play the under in the Cleveland-Toronto game.
With yesterday's 2-1 final, the Cleveland Indians have played low to a tune of 8-2-1 their last 11 games overall.
Obviously the Tribe's pitching has been solid, and Jeanmar Gomez made a strong big league debut, throwing 7 innings of shutout ball against Detroit as he recorded his first major league win.
Toronto will counter with Jesse Litsch, and he has been pitching much better his last few starts, going 18 innings over his last 3 starts while allowing 6 earned runs to score.
The season series has had a slant towards lower scoring games, as the teams are on a 5-3-1 under run in the 9 games contested thus far this season.
Going to look for another low scoring affair on Sunday, and the Tribe-Jays game to stay under the posted total.
1♦ UNDER
Derek Mancini
Solid Free Play winner with the Marlins over the Padres 6-3 Saturday! That win came on the heels of my huge underdog winner on the Nationals (+155) over the Phillies Friday! Sunday we're laying it with the Brewers to avoid the sweep at Minute Maid Park.
Number on this contest stands out for a couple reasons. First, its begging for Astros money. Houston has won 5 of their L6 (incl. 4 straight), and is on the verge of a 3-game sweep, and yet we're getting a healthy dose of plus money with the home team here?! If that's not fishy, I don't know what is.
Also, at first glance, this pitching match up appears to be close, but upon further review, the edge clearly lies with Randy Wolf (7-9, 5.07 ERA). He's bounced back nicely from his implosion at Pittsburgh, and has actually been pitching well for about a month and half now. Take away that one bad start vs the Pirates, and Wolf has delivered 6 quality efforts in his L8 starts! Not to mention, the last time he faced Houston (May 25th), he tossed 7 scoreless innings for the win.
Can't say the same positive things about career reliever Wesley Wright (0-1, 5.12 ERA), who after 126 straight bullpen appearances, will be making his 3rd straight start for the Astros. Milwaukee's bats have been anything but hot of late, but they'll have their chances against Wright, who got hit hard by the Cubs Monday. Another difference between Wolf and Wright is stamina level. You can expect Wolf to go at least 6, while Wright has put a lot of pressure on the 'Stros bullpen thus far. Milwaukee (Wolf) over Houston (Wright) Sunday.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
BRETT ATKINS
Today's free winner is an easy call as I'll gladly pay the price to go with the Yankees and C.C. Sabathia today in Tampa against the Rays.
Sabathia is a big-game pitcher and this guy has consistently stepped up his performance the bigger the game has gotten. New York won Saturday's contest against the Rays and they'll leave Tampa today with two in a row and still in first place.
Sabathia is 13-4 this season with a 3.15 ERA and he's 6-4 on the road with a 3.56 ERA. The Yankees have already beaten the Rays twice this season behind Sabathia, includign a 10-0 win in Tampa back on April 10 when he shut them out on one hit over 7.2 innings.
James Shields goes for the Rays and he is an ugly 2-5 at home this season witha 5.29 ERA. Tampa is 1-2 in his three starts against the Yankees this season as he's given up nine runs in 18.2 innings. Tampa is on slides of 1-5 at home with Shields on the mound, 1-6 on Sundays and 3-9 overall.
New York is 38-15 when Sabathia is a favorite, 39-16 when he's on the mound overall and 13-3 when he goes up against an A.L. East rival. The Yankees have beaten Shields 10 of the last 12 times they've seen him and today will be no different. Play the Yankees!.
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES
STEVE JANUS
TB Rays +130
I like the Rays to take care of business against the Yankees on Sunday. The Rays will look to win the series with James Shields on the mound, who is 2-0 in his last three starts. The Yankees will start C.C. Sabathia, but the Rays got to Sabathia when he pitched against them three starts ago. I look for the Rays offense to provide enough fire power to win this game. Bet the Rays.
Top Trends For Rays +130
*TAMPA BAY is 11-0 against the money line in home games after scoring 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons.
*TAMPA BAY is 17-6 against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better this season.
* TAMPA BAY is 15-2 against the money line in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 62%) over the last 3 seasons.
Michael Cannon
I’m on a 4-0 run with my free plays!
Take the Rangers for the road win over the Angels.
The Angels continue to slide and I don’t see them breaking out of it against Cliff Lee.
Lee picked up his only win as a Ranger against these same Angels on July 22, when he beat Jered Weaver in a 3-2 win.
Weaver, who starts for Los Angeles today, is 1-4 with a 4.45 ERA in his last five starts. As a team the Angels have lost eight of their last 10.
Take the Rangers for the road win.
3♦ TEXAS
Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from Anaheim, Calif., as I’ll take the Angels as a home underdog against the Rangers.
Cliff Lee has gotten a lot of pub this season, and rightfully so, as he’s been fantastic (9-4, 2.40 ERA). But the Angels’ Jered Weaver isn’t exactly a slouch. Even though his record (9-7) isn’t what it could be, he’s got a 3.06 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. And at home, Weaver has been ridiculous, going 4-2 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP (66 baseurnners in 67 innings). And he’s struck out 74 hitters in those 76 innings (his 155 Ks overall lead all of MLB).
And while Lee has been a complete-game master this season, Weaver has been a workhorse, too, pitching at least six innings in 13 consecutive starts and 20 of his 22 outings.
Weaver has been solid in his last two outings against the Rangers, giving up three runs, nine hits and four walks with, 11 strikeouts in 13 innings. That includes a dominating 2-1 home win exactly one month ago (seven shutout innings, two hits allowed).
Back to Lee: As great as he’s been, the Rangers are just 2-2 in his four starts this season. Why is that? Because they’ve scored only nine runs in those four contests.
Finally, the home team has dominated this rivalry, winning of eight of 11 meetings this season and 11 of 15 going back to last September. That includes a 3-6 record for Texas at Angel Stadium.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from Anaheim, Calif., as I’ll take the Angels as a home underdog against the Rangers.
Cliff Lee has gotten a lot of pub this season, and rightfully so, as he’s been fantastic (9-4, 2.40 ERA). But the Angels’ Jered Weaver isn’t exactly a slouch. Even though his record (9-7) isn’t what it could be, he’s got a 3.06 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. And at home, Weaver has been ridiculous, going 4-2 with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP (66 baseurnners in 67 innings). And he’s struck out 74 hitters in those 76 innings (his 155 Ks overall lead all of MLB).
And while Lee has been a complete-game master this season, Weaver has been a workhorse, too, pitching at least six innings in 13 consecutive starts and 20 of his 22 outings.
Weaver has been solid in his last two outings against the Rangers, giving up three runs, nine hits and four walks with, 11 strikeouts in 13 innings. That includes a dominating 2-1 home win exactly one month ago (seven shutout innings, two hits allowed).
Back to Lee: As great as he’s been, the Rangers are just 2-2 in his four starts this season. Why is that? Because they’ve scored only nine runs in those four contests.
Finally, the home team has dominated this rivalry, winning of eight of 11 meetings this season and 11 of 15 going back to last September. That includes a 3-6 record for Texas at Angel Stadium.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Michael Cannon
I’m on a 4-0 run with my free plays!
Take the Rangers for the road win over the Angels.
The Angels continue to slide and I don’t see them breaking out of it against Cliff Lee.
Lee picked up his only win as a Ranger against these same Angels on July 22, when he beat Jered Weaver in a 3-2 win.
Weaver, who starts for Los Angeles today, is 1-4 with a 4.45 ERA in his last five starts. As a team the Angels have lost eight of their last 10.
Take the Rangers for the road win.
3♦ TEXAS
JEFF ALEXANDER
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 -143
Wainwright is 10-0 with an ERA of only 1.22 at home this season. Of those 10 wins, 9 have come by 2 or more runs. In addition, Wainwright is a perfect 14-0 against the money line versus teams which are outscored by their opponents by 0.5 or more runs per game on the season over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by an average score of 8.0 to 2.1. The Cards have also won Wainwright's last 3 starts against the Pirates with all 3 of those wins coming by at least 2 runs. Take the Cards on the run line.
JEFF BENTON
I’m now on a 110-76-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away Saturday’s easy winner on the Marlins over the Padres. For Sunday’s free play, we’ll head back to San Francisco and play the Dodgers over the Giants.
Helluva pitching matchup here, with Clayton Kershaw leading Los Angeles against Matt Cain. Both guys have been tremendous pretty much all season long, and both are on a roll right now. The big separation between the two? It’s Cain’s 0-8 lifetime record against the Dodgers.
No, that’s not a misprint. One of the best pitchers in baseball is 0-8 all time against his team’s fiercest rival. And while you’d think that record has as much to do San Francisco’s anemic offense as it does Cain, you’d be wrong. He’s allowed 39 earned runs, 97 hits and 40 walks – so 137 baserunners – in 81 1/3 innings against L.A. That’s a 4.32 ERA and a 1.68 WHIP … and yet that’s not even the most damning stat. This is: The Dodgers’ batters are hitting .302 lifetime against Cain.
That wouldn’t be such a big deal in most instances, but the fact Cain has unbelievable stuff, such an opposing team batting average is mind-boggling.
Kershaw is freaking stud, guys, and the fact he’s allowed three earned runs or fewer in 15 of 21 starts this season is enough to get me on the Dodgers’ express as L.A. avoids a three-game sweep.
4♦ L.A. DODGERS
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Phils/Nats OVER the total. When does a Phillies/Nationals game NOT go OVER the total? Maybe when it's listed in double digits.... until then, I'll take the OVER every time I see this matchup. Even with Cole Hamels and John Lannan on the hill, I like my chances with the OVER.
Yesterday's 7-5 finish preceded by Friday's 8-1 win both went over the total and, in fact, the OVER has successfully hit 8 times in a row. And consider this... John Lannan's ERA over his last three starts is over 10.00, and the last time I checked the Phillies were starting to hit the ball a little better. EVERY game this season between these two has gone over the total (that's 8 games). Free play of the day on the Phillies/Nats OVER the posted total.
3♦ OVER
STEPHEN NOVER
I am 47-29-1 on my last 77 free selections after an easy winner Saturday with the Astros. On the big Sunday card, I'm taking Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers to avoid being swept by the San Francisco Giants.
Kershaw opened as the underdog to Matt Cain, which is enough from a value standpoint to get me involved with Los Angeles.
This is nothing against Cain or the Giants, who have been playing great ball having won 19 of their last 24 games. The Dodgers have been going the other way, dropping 11 of their last 16 since the All-Star break.
But the combination of Kershaw, Dodgers' desperation and the Giants probably not having closer Brian Wilson put me on Los Angeles.
Cain is solid with a 3.14 ERA. But he's not an ace. Kershaw is. He's 9-3 since May 9 and is one of the best young pitchers in baseball. Kershaw should be plenty fresh having not pitched in a week.
He served a five-game suspension since his last start a week ago Sunday for hitting the Giants' Aaron Rowand in the leg. This probably was in retaliation for the Giants' Tim Lincecum plunking Matt Kemp earlier in that game. The Dodgers were not happy with the suspension. This figures to be a very intense game.
I don't see Cain keeping up with Kershaw. Cain has never beaten the Dodgers in 14 starts. He's 0-8 versus them with a 4.32 ERA.
Wilson has missed the past two games with back spasms. The Giants managed to get saves from two different pitchers in those games. But in what figures to be a low-scoring game - the total opened 6 1/2 at some books - Wilson will be missed in this matchup if he can't go.
2♦ LOS ANGELES
VEGAS EXPERTS
Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres host the Florida Marlins today at 4:05 PM ET in the last game of the series. Florida is down two games in the series and are not looking to get swept! Johnson is on the mound for Florida and has been pitching excellent. He has a team start record of 13-7, 1.72 ERA and 0.998 WHIP in all his starts this season! On the other side of today’s pitching matchup, Garland has been pitching decent with a 3.57 ERA in his last three starts, but will not have as good of a performance as Johnson. Florida tends to play great in Sunday matchup’s since they have gone 12-4 in that situation. Play on the Florida Marlins!
Play on: Florida Marlins