Wunderdog
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
This line is out of whack. Sure, it seems impossible for the Nats to sweep the Phillies. But, is it really so crazy? The Phils are 7-20 on the road since the end of May. Cole Hamels surely has an advantage over John Lannan, but Hamels is just 3-5 on the road this season and he lasts only 5.8 innings per start. If this game is left up to the bullpens, Washington has a big advantage. Philadelphia's pen owns a 4.69 ERA and 58.8% save percentage on the road. At home, Washington's pen has posted a 3.08 ERA with a 68% save percentage. When facing a good bullpen (ERA of 3.75 or better) this season, Philadelphia is just 16-23. As a road favorite of -125 to -175 this season, Philly is 4-14. I like Washington at these juicy odds.
Tony Stoffo
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Let's look for the Phillies to avoid the sweep here as this pitching match up points big time to a Philadelphia win here today. Cole Hamels goes for the Phillies today against John Lannan for the Nationals. Hamels has been super sharp as of late allowing just 4 runs, and 15 hits in his last 3 starts resulting in a 1.80 ERA and 1.100 WHIP. I look for this to continue today as Hamels has dominated the Nationals going 9-3 against them with a 2.58 ERA and 1.117 Whip. While Lannan has been just the opposite as in his last 3 starts he has given up 17 runs, and 31 hits in only 13 innings pitched producing a 10.38 ERA and a whopping 2.923 WHIP. Plus add in the fact the Lannan will not have a good mindset as he takes the mound here as he is 0-7 against the Phillies with a 6.32 ERA and 1.702 WHIP and you can see why I can't see him lasting long here today. And even if this game is close at the end with the Nationals trading away their closer Matt Capps yesterday only adds this game going to the Phillies in this spot. Phillies are 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts. Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Nationals are 0-4 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Nationals are 1-6 in Lannans last 7 starts as an underdog of +151 to +200.
Craig Trapp
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play: Over 7
Yes two very good pitchers but these two teams know each other so well that many times what looks like a pitchers duel ends up being hitters working the count and eating up pitch counts. This one will be over due to these teams getting to the bullpens. Also Cain has a 4.00 plus ERA vs LAD and Kershaw is going to be scared to come inside coming off a suspension for hitting batters. This one smells like an over as these two have averaged over 8 runs together the last two years head to head!
DAVID MALINSKY
ANGELS Run Line +1.5 -145 over TEXAS
Yes, we noted the advantages that the Rangers have over the Angels in yesterday’s breakdown, which is becoming apparent in the standings. But rarely do we ever chart a long-term category that brings us what we can get behind Jered Weaver here, and a home team that has a lot of moxie and pride can fit well into this equation.
In backing Weaver with a successful 5* Under ticket against the Red Sox earlier this week we set it up this way - ”Meanwhile Weaver from this mound is one of the true long-term dominance stories in the sport, with a 4-1/1.80 this season over 60 IP that is keyed by a dominating ratio of 66 Ks’ vs. only 44 Hits allowed, on the heels of a 9-3/2.90 LY.” Today we can take the breakdown back even further. What happens when you get a Class A pitcher working from his own mound and a solid team behind him? You are rarely going to be out of a game. Weaver has turned a sparkling 58-9 as +1.5 in this Stadium over his Major League career, including a 9-1 this season in which the only failure came by two runs. He has beaten the Rangers in all three home starts the past two seasons, including seven innings of shutout ball (only two hits) back on July 1st. And with Josh Hamilton likely sitting out, getting a margin is even tougher for Texas.
There is nothing bad that we can say about Cliff Lee, but every bit of his excellence has been packed into this price point. He needed all of his guile to get past Weaver 3-2 on the road two starts back, a result that we would certainly accept here, and if anything Mike Scioscia’s aggressive use of the hit-and-run can open opportunities vs. a guy that is always around the strike zone.
Jack Jones
Florida Marlins -140
I have the Marlins beating the Padres Sunday behind Ace Josh Johnson. The righty is on track to win the NL Cy Young award with the way he has pitched this season. Johnson is 10-3 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.998 WHIP in 21 starts this season. He has also pitched well against San Diego throughout his career, going 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.636 WHIP in 3 career starts vs. the Padres. He has allowed 3 earned runs and 14 base runners in 22 innings over those 3 starts.
The Marlins are hot right now, winners of 11 of their last 15 games overall. Florida is 8-1 in Johnson's last 9 Sunday starts. The Marlins are 27-6 in Johnson's last 33 starts with 4 days of rest. Florida is 46-22 in Johnson's last 68 starts overall. The Padres are 0-4 in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Roll with Florida Sunday.
Bryan Leonard
Yankees / Rays Over 8
At first look with a mound match-up of Sabathia and Shields you would think that pitching would rule the day. But a closer look shows that offense will be the key ingredient to a victory on Sunday.
CC's last three starts have been solid on the surface but he's been very fortunate. Sabathia has permitted 39 baserunners in only 20.1 innings. His pitches per inning which is usually a strength has been 16.1, 18.9 and 17.6. Because of that he has had to throw 113, 120 and 123 pitches in those last three starts.
James Shields and the Rays have dropped 8 of his last 10 starts against the Yankees. New York has scored a combined 66 runs in those 10 games.
The posted total has been passed in 10 of the last 11 meetings and we expect another slugfest. Look for both pitchers to struggle as this one becomes a shootout.
Freddy Wills
Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
I like Bucholz here today as he proved his last time out he's already back at full strength. I do not like Verlander in this spot on the road at Fenway where the Tigers are just 7-22 in their last 29. Tigers bats have gone cold since losing Magglio Ordonez and Carlos Guillent ot he DL. Look for Boston to take advantage of that as they have a .283 average vs. RHP at home wtih 5.50 runs per 9 while the Tigers sit at just .257 and 3.46 on the road. Verlander 4.80 ERA away from home.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Philadelphia Phillies -166
This price really isn't that steep considering Hamels' dominance against the Nats. The Phillies are 13-3 in his last 16 starts against Washington. Plus, Lannan likely shows some rust in his first start at the MLB level since June. Also, the Nationals are 0-8 in Lannan's last 8 starts vs. the Phillies. After losing the first 2 games of this series, I like the Phillies to bounce back strong in Game 3.
Doug Upstone
Cleveland Indians vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Cleveland Indians rank 10th in the American League in on-base percentage. When AL teams like this are road underdogs with a money line of +125 to +175, with a low on-base percentage on-base percentage of .320 or less, against a team with a good bullpen WHIP of 1.350 or less in August games, they are 5-35 in next outing.