SPORTS ADVISORS
Philadelphia (65-49) at Atlanta (61-55)
The Phillies send left-hander J.A. Happ (8-2, 2.75 ERA) to the mound for the rubber match of a series against the Braves, who will counter with Javier Vazquez (10-7, 2.90) at Turner Field.
After scoring a 3-2 win on Friday, Philadelphia closer Brad Lidge blew his eighth save of the season on Saturday, allowing two runs in the bottom of the ninth as the Braves rallied for a 4-3 win. Even with the loss, the Phillies are 10-4 in their last 14 trips to Atlanta, but the Braves have won six of the last seven overall meetings between these two and eight of 11 this season.
Philadelphia remains on runs of 8-3 against the N.L. East, 21-9 against right-handed starters, 4-1 on the road, 35-18 on the road against teams with a winning record and 70-33 on Sundays. Atlanta is on positive streaks of 6-1 overall, 14-5 at home, 5-1 against southpaws and 11-5 as a home chalk.
Happ is 4-1 on the road this season with a 1.84 ERA, and in his last three games he’s posted a 1.71 ERA. He allowed two runs in six innings on Tuesday at Chicago, getting a no-decision in his team’s 4-3, 10-inning victory. Only once in his last 10 starts has Happ allowed more than three runs, including back on July 2 when he held these Braves to two runs on seven hits in seven innings, but his offense let him down in the 5-2 loss
In three career starts against Atlanta, Happ has allowed four runs in 19 2/3 innings (1.83 ERA). Finally, Philadelphia is 5-2 in Happ’s last seven starts against N.L. East competition and 4-1 in his last five against teams with winning records.
Vazquez is 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in his last three outings, but this is his first home start since July 19. Atlanta is unbeaten in Vazquez’s last seven outings, including an 8-2 win in Los Angeles a week ago today. The veteran right-hander has already faced these Phillies three times this season, winning two and allowing a combined seven runs in 19 innings (3.32 ERA). The Braves are on runs of 6-0 when Vazquez starts as a favorite, 4-0 when he faces the N.L. East rivals and 5-0 when he battles teams with winning records.
With Happ on the mound, the Phillies are on “under” runs of 6-2 as a ‘dog, 4-0 on the road and 15-3-1 overall, while as a team, Philadelphia has stayed below the total in 10 of 13 road games, 9 of 12 against the N.L. East and nine of 10 on the road against right-handed starters. With Vazquez on the bump, the Braves are on “under” streaks of 5-0-1 at home and 8-3-1 against teams with winning records.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven clashes in this divisional rivalry, all played at Turner Field.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER
Boston (66-50) at Texas (65-50)
The top two teams battling it out for the A.L. wild-card wrap up a three-game set at Rangers Ballpark as the Red Sox send right-hander Junichi Tazawa (1-1, 4.05 ERA) to the mound opposite Rangers righty Dustin Nippers (3-1, 3.62).
Texas scored a 7-2 victory Saturday night after allowing Boston to steal Friday’s game 8-4 with a six-run ninth inning. The Rangers have won six of eight against the Red Sox this season, including four of five in Texas.
Terry Francona’s squad continues to struggle, currently on slides of 1-7 on the road, 4-10 against teams with winning records, 4-8 overall and 2-11 on the road against winning teams. Meanwhile, the Rangers are on runs of 10-3 at home, 12-4 against winning teams, 10-2 as a favorite, 8-0 as a home chalk, 4-0 on Sundays and 8-1 against A.L. East competition.
Tazawa made the first start of his career on Tuesday at home against the Tigers and gave up three runs (one earned) in five innings, striking out six and walking two, and the Red Sox rewarded him with the 7-5 victory.
Nippert is 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA at home this season and made his last home outing against these Red Sox on July 22 when he gave up one run on five hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 3-1 Texas victory. In his five starts this season, Nipper has allowed three runs or less four times, but the Rangers are just 2-3 in those five outings.
Boston has gone over the posted total in five of six against A.L. West teams and four of six against teams with winning records, but the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 12-5 on the road, 19-8-1 on the highway against right-handed starters, 17-5-1 as a ‘dog and 12-3 as a road ‘dog. Texas is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 4-0 when Nippert starts, 37-17-5 on Sundays, 38-14-2 at home, 44-16-2 overall, 26-7-2 as a favorite, 12-2 against the A.L. East and 23-4-1 as a home favorite. Finally, in this series, the “under” is on runs of 8-1 overall, including 5-1 in Arlington.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TEXAS and UNDER
you guys got rated picks?
DUNKEL
LA Dodgers at Arizona
The Dodgers look to snap their three-game skid and build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 games as a road favorite between -150 and -200. LA is the pick (-155) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155).
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Game 951-952: Washington at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 14.763; Cincinnati (Lehr) 15.732
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); Under
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Game 953-954: San Francisco at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Sanchez) 14.471; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.909
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+105); Over
Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Happ) 15.786; Atlanta (Vazquez) 16.617
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-130); Under
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Game 957-958: Houston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Oswalt) 14.904; Milwaukee (Looper) 14.511
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+105); Under
Game 959-960: San Diego at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 14.950; St. Louis (Lohse) 14.737
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+170); Over
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Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 12.573; Cubs (Harden) 13.903
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-260); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-260); N/A
Game 963-964: LA Dodgers at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Wolf) 15.818; Arizona (Petit) 14.583
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-155); Under
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Game 965-966: Colorado at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.860; Florida (Vandenhurk) 15.703
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 967-968: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Davies) 15.020; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.293
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-230); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+210); Over
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Game 969-970: LA Angels at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (O'Sullivan) 14.905; Baltimore (Guthrie) 15.212
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-120); Under
Game 971-972: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Rzepczynski) 14.012; Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.732
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-180); Under
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Game 973-974: Boston at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Tazawa) 16.443; Texas (Nippert) 15.763
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-125); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+115); Under
Game 975-976: Cleveland at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Laffey) 16.135; Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.017
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-160); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Over
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Game 977-978: Chicago White Sox at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 14.844; Oakland (Cahill) 15.509
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+120); Over
Game 979-980: NY Yankees at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 15.701; Seattle (Fister) 15.885
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+175); Under
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Game 981-982: Colorado at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Cook) 16.649; Florida (Volstad) 14.914
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
WNBA
New York at Washington
The Liberty look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 road games. New York is the pick (+4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2).
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Game 601-602: New York at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.214; Washington 110.687
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 138 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4 1/2; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New York (+4 1/2); Under
CFL
Hamilton at Saskatchewan
The Tiger-Cats look to build on their 5-0 ATS streak. Hamilton is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has Saskatchewan favored by just 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+5 1/2).
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Game 407-408: Hamilton at Saskatchewan
Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 108.868; Saskatchewan 112.156
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 5 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (+5 1/2); Under
Vernon Croy
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Kansas City Royals vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Kansas City Royals
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Royals have the better pitcher on the mound here Sunday afternoon. Kyle Davies (4-8, 6.11 ERA) has pitched solid on the road this season with an ERA of just 3.09 over 7 starts and Armando Galarraga (6-10, 5.23 ERA) has struggled at home with an ERA of 4.59 over 12 starts. This is Galarraga's first start since he lasted just 5 innings at home against the Minnesota Twins on August.7 where he walked 5 batters while giving up 8 hits. Davies pitched solid in his last start which was on the road against the Twins where he allowed just 5 hits and 1 earned run over 5 innings. Davies has allowed just 29 hits over 43.7 innings on the road this season and I look for a strong outing by him Sunday afternoon. The Tigers are just 1-5 in Galarraga's last 6 starts and they are also just 1-4 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite. Take the Kansas City Royals at a very good price Sunday afternoon.
Frank Jordan
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Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers
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Texas bounced back nicely on Saturday after blowing the game late on Friday. Boston is still up one win over Texas as these two teams seem to be locked in a battle for the AL wildcard. With young pitchers on the mound look for the offenses to be the key to the victory and Texas' offense at home is unstoppable. Look for Texas to hit 3 or 4 long balls on their way to an 8-4 win in the game and series. Play Texas
Cajun Sports
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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
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The Phillies and Braves square off on Sunday night at the Ted in the rubber match of their three-game weekend set. The Braves are 6-16 (-11.2) in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent in the second half of the season the last 2 seasons while the Phillies are 25-12 (+15.4) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Atlanta is 3-13 (-11.7) in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons and the Phillies are 30-14 (+16.5) versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs per game in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. The Phillies are 12-3 (+10.0) in road games vs. a bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 to 1.450 this season, 34-18 (+18.0) in road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up less than 1.75 walks per start the last 3 seasons, 26-15 (+14.1) as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons, 14-7 (+7.3) in road games against division opponents this season and 25-12 (+14.3) in road games against right-handed starters this season. With solid technical and fundamental support for the visitor we will back the road underdog here as they grab the game three win and secure another series victory.
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Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 3 Atlanta Braves 2
Craig Trapp
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Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Under 9
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The under is the big free play for Craig today. The Reds and Nats are two of the worst teams in the last two months. The Reds don't seem to be able to score runs lately scoring under 3 runs average per game in last 20 games. On the other side WASH has been pitching so much better. Today they turn to Lannan who has been very good this year. His record does not look great but its deceiving. Even better he has been great verse the Reds 1-0 with a 3.06 ERA in three starts against the Reds. He didn't get a decision in the last start June 11, yielding two runs in six innings of Washington's 3-2 win. The Reds turn to surprise starter Lehr who has been great lately going 2-0 with 1.8 ERA. The best news is this years series between these two struggling teams the under has hit in all but one game in 6 games. SCORE WASH 2 - CIN 1
MTi Sports
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Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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Since the start of the 2008 season, the Tigers are 10-0 in the third game of a three-game home series in which they won the first two. The Royals are 0-10 when Kyle Davies starts and the Royals lost their last two games. Consider the Tigers.
Rob Vinciletti
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San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets
Play: New York Mets
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The Mets are reasonably priced here and according to my numbers should be a -130 to -140 favorite even without D.Wright.The knee jerk reaction with Wright out is to jump on Sanfran.However, the Giants are scoring 2.4 runs per game on .240 hitting over the past 7 games and will have a tough time scoring on M.Pelfrey today.Pelfrey has better home numbers than Giants starter Sanchez does on the road.Pelfrey has pitched superb against the Giants allowing just 2 runs in 13 innings good for a 1.38 era.Sanchez has a 4.86 era vs the Mets and the Giants are 1-9 in his road starts this year, as he has an elevated 5.74 road era.The Mets have taken 6 of the last 8 at home vs San Francisco.The Mets have hit better in day games this year and have a higher team average vs Leftys.After yesterdays beanball game leaving the Mets without Wright,they no doubt want to atone for a tough 5-4 extra inning loss.
JIM FEIST
comp
(969) LOS ANGELES ANGELS
(970) BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Take "Over"
Looks like a high scoring affair here on Sunday. You have the team (Balt) that has allowed the most runs in the AL this season (615) against the team in the AL that is tied for the most runs scored (LAA). The O's pitching is obviously pretty bad and while the hitting isn't great either, they are 4th in the AL in batting avg (.270). Meanwhile, the Angels are at or near the top in just about every hitting category, including 1st in BA (.289). Surprisingly for a first place team, the pitching isn't very good. The Angels are 12th in ERA (4.87), opp batting avg (.276) and WHIP (1.45). Don't look for a dominating start from either starter today. Sean O'Sullivan of the Angels has a 7.20 ERA his last three starts and Jeremy Guthrie has a 6.75 ERA his last three outings. Both teams will get their hits and runs. Sit back, enjoy the high scoring affair and take the OVER!!
DAVE COKIN
comp
(965) COLORADO ROCKIES
(966) FLORIDA MARLINS
Take "(965) COLORADO ROCKIES"
One never knows for sure which Jorge De La Rosa will show up for the Rockies. The good one is lights out, but when De La Rosa is off he gets lit up in a big way. But the lefty has been good way more often than not lately, and he's facing a Florida lineup that can struggle with tough southpaws. Chris Volstad hasn't been fooling too many hitters, so in spite of the strong recent play of the Marlins, I'm looking at the road dog Rockies today.
(Cokin's pitching match-ups are incorrect.)
Scott Ferrall
MLB FREE PICKS FOR SUNDAY PICKS ARE IN ALL CAPS AND RANKED IN ORDER OF CONFIDENCE ( )
Toronto (Rzepczynski)
TAMPA BAY (GARZA) -175 (1)
Colorado (De La Rosa)
FLORIDA (VOLSTAD) -125 (2)
SAN DIEGO (RICHARD) +170 (3)
St. Louis (Lohse)
Run Totals
Colorado / Florida OVER 9 ½
Toronto / Tampa Bay OVER 8 ½
Angels / Baltimore OVER 10 ½
Jeff Benton
For Sunday, it’s back to baseball, and I’ll take the Yankees and Joba Chamberlain on the run line (-1½ runs) in their series finale at the Mariners.
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Chamberlain hasn’t exactly been at the top of his game lately, giving up four runs in each of his last two starts over a total of 11 innings (6.55 ERA), this after yielding a grand total of two runs and eight hits over his previous three outings covering 21 2/3 innings (0.83 ERA). But it really hasn’t much mattered who well Joba pitches, because all the Yankees do is win when he’s on the mound – and win big!
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New York is 5-0 in his last five starts and 8-1 in his last nine, and those eight wins have come by a combined 28 runs, with the Bronx Bombers covering the run line seven times. What’s more, New York is 16-6 in the right-hander’s 22 starts this year, and Chamberlain has also been outstanding on the road in 2009 (5-0, 2.78 ERA).
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Finally, it’s hard to ignore the Yankees’ recent dominance of the Mariners. They’ve won 13 of the last 16 meetings, including four of five this year, and 13 of their last 14 victories in this rivalry (including all four this year) have been by more than a run. New York comes into this game having won 11 of its last 12 (five straight on the road, all by more than a run) and Seattle pitcher Doug Fister is making just his second-ever big-league start. Tthis one’s almost seems too easy. Play baseball’s hottest team on the run line.
5♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1½
Jake Timlin
Take the Yankees as they sweep today’s series in a blowout.
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Already with three straight wins by two or more runs over the past three days I now look for the Yankees to make four straight blowout wins as they wrap up a four game sweep of the Mariners today.
Leading the way for the Yankees who are 12-1 in their last 13 games played will be Joba Chamberlain who is a perfect 5-0 in his last 9 starts with New York posting a 8-1 record in those 9 starts.
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Meanwhile, countering for Seattle will be Doug Fister who will be making his second MLB start after the Mariners ending up losing in his debut 3-1 to the White Sox.
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Simple, given that New York is next to unbeatable right now and having won 6 of their last 7 game by two or more runs I expect nothing but a blowout today in Seattle as the Yankees sweep the four game series.
1♦ New York Yankees -1½
Tony Weston
I delivered yesterday as the Yankees cruise to an easy Run Line win. I’m giving you another winner today as I’m taking the Padres as a huge dog on the road at the St. Louis Cardinals.
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Sure the Padres haven’t had much success lately, but the difference today will be San Diego’s scheduled starting pitcher Clayton Richard.
Almost under the radar of Jake Peavy, Richard was one of the principals that came to San Diego from Chicago in the 5-player trade that sent Peavy to the White Sox.
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Over his last 10 starts, his teams are 7-3 and are 4-1 his last five starts on the road.
Opposite Richard will be the Cardinals’ Kyle Lohse, who has struggled mightily this season. While he missed about a month of action in June, his results have been about the same. He only has two wins since the end of April as the Cards are just 2-10 his last 12 starts.
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St. Louis will drop another one with Lohse on the mound as the Padres get over. Pencil in Richard as your starting pitcher and take San Diego on the road in this one.
3♦ PADRES