Bobby Maxwell
Houston at MILWAUKEE -110
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Today's FREE winner comes from the National League Central as I go with Milwaukee at home to get the job done against the Astros.
Milwaukee has dominated the Astros when they come calling at Miller Park. The Brewers are 15-4 in the last 19 meetings in Milwaukee and look for them to add to that today with Braden Looper (10-6, 4.99 ERA) on the mound.
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The Brewers have taken the first two games of this series and they've won seven of the 11 played against Houston this season. Milwaukee is also on runs of 4-1 in the third game of a series, 5-0 when Looper faces division rivals, 5-2 when he's a 'dog and 5-2 when he gets a full four days of rest.
On the other side, the Astros are on slides of 1-5 overall, 0-5 against teams with a losing record, 2-9 on the road and just 3-7 when starter Roy Oswalt faces N.L. Central foes. Oswalt (6-4, 3.87) has a 5.93 ERA in his last three starts, including an ugly outing in Florida on Tuesday when he gave up six runs in five innings of a 9-8 loss. He faced the Brewers on May 21 and allowed three runs on 10 hits in 6.1 innings of a 4-3 loss.
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Milwaukee has won six of Looper's last 10 outings and he seems to have been alternating good and bad outings lately. On Aug. 5 he allowed just one run in 6.2 innings to the Dodgers in a 4-1 win, but on Tuesday he gave up seven runs (five earned) in five innings of a 13-6 loss to the Padres.
Don't like the way the Astros are playing right now and love the fact the Brewers have all the confidence in the world when they get Houston at home. Play Milwaukee in this one.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Dominic Fazzini
Toronto at TAMPA BAY
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The Tigers got me back in the winner's column Saturday with their 10-3 victory over Kansas City, giving me six wins in my last seven complimentary selections! Now I'm going to end the weekend right with another run-line winner.
Rays right-hander Matt Garza (7-8, 3.80 ERA) is hard to figure out sometimes. The guy has great stuff, but sometimes his emotions get the best of him on the mound. In his last start, he allowed six runs (four earned) and six hits in 3 1/3 innings Monday against the Angels.
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One thing is for sure, though. He loves pitching against the Blue Jays. Garza is 5-2 with a 0.83 ERA in his last seven outings against them, including 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA this season.
Toronto rookie Marc Rzepczynski (1-3, 4.38) has struggled lately, going 0-2 with a 6.16 ERA in his last four starts. The left-hander gave up four runs and seven hits in 3 1/3 innings Monday against the Yankees.
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The Blue Jays have lost 14 of their last 21 on the road, and are 3-13 in their last 16 games at Tropicana Field. I think Garza is going to keep Toronto's bats quiet today, just as he has over the last two seasons. Take the Rays on the run line.
2♦ TAMPA BAY -1½
Sports Gambling Hotline
White Sox -130 at OAKLAND
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We are on a 17-7-1 comp play run the last 25 days.
For Sunday, we like Chicago to complete the three-game sweep of Oakland, as White Sox starter John Danks has been lights-out against the A's over the past few season.
In Danks' last 4 starts against Oakland, he is a perfect 4-0, and he has allowed just 4 earned run in his 26 innings of work against them.
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Danks is also 6-3 on the road this season with a respectable 3.86 road ERA.
His counterpart Trevor Cahill is a dissapointing 6-12 for the year with an ERA of 5.06. Cahill sports a personal 4 game losing streak in which he has allowed 5 runs or more to score in 3 of those 4 losses.
It is not likely Cahill is going to get much support at the plate today based on how Danks has limited the Oakland bats in recent years, so look for Cahill's losing streak to hit 5 in a row, and look for the Pale Hose to leave town with the three-game sweep.
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Play on the ChiSox.
4♦ WHITE SOX
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at SEATTLE
G-Man on a 23-14 free play roll my last 37 releases.
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Looking at this Yankees-Mariners game, you have to wonder if they have the "mercy rule" in pace at Safeco Field this afternoon.
New York has won the first three games of this long four game set, and they have taken ALL three by two runs or more.
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In the six meetings this year, New York has won five of them, and again, ALL of the wins have come by two runs or more!
You see what I am getting at?
Bingo!
RUN LINE play today on the Yankees as they leave Seattle with another easy win.
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Joba Chamberlain has done his best work away from home where he is 5-0 with a 2.78 ERA. His counterpart Doug Fister is making just his second start at this level, and that spells trouble against this stacked Yankees lineup.
New York is on a 12-1 run their last 13 games, and 11 of those 12 wins have come by two runs or more.
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Yankees on the RUN LINE is the G-Man's comp play for Sunday.
5♦ YANKEES -1½
MATT FARGO
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Los Angeles Angels @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Over 10.5
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After scoring 22 runs on Friday, the Orioles and Angles combined for just six runs Saturday despite a combined 21 hits. 20 players left on base will certainly keep the runs down. The low score yesterday should not take away the fact that these two teams are still hitting it well and the run scoring should resume on Sunday. After a slow start this year, the Angels offense has risen up as they are hitting .290 on the season including .289 on the road, both of which are first in all of baseball. The Orioles meanwhile are hitting .295 at home which is also first in baseball so we have the situation of the two top teams in the league in home/road situation facing off and topping it off, going up against a couple struggling pitchers. Sean O’Sullivan goes for Los Angeles and in seven starts this season, he has a 5.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. His numbers on the road are much better but offsetting that is the fact that this is his first daytime start of the season. He has already been hit hard once by the Orioles, allowing four runs in 5.2 innings back on July 4th. He goes against Jeremy Guthrie who is having a surprisingly difficult season. He has a 5.43 ERA and 1.41 WHIP on the season and he has really struggled in the latter half of the year. In his first 11 starts he posted a 4.86 ERA which certainly isn’t great but in his last 12 starts he has a 5.99 ERA to go along with a 1.44 WHIP. In his lone start against the Angels this season, he allowed five runs in seven innings. The ‘Over’ is 5-1 in Guthrie’s last six home starts against a team with a winning record while the ‘Over’ is 23-5-2 in the Angels last 30 games against a right-handed starter.
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3* Over Los Angeles Angels/Baltimore Orioles
Mr. A's
Sunday, August 16th, 2009 2:05 PM EST.
Boston Red Sox (66-50) at Texas Rangers (65-50)
(R) Junichi Tazawa (1-1) vs. (R) Dustin Nippert (3-1)
Oddsmakers: Texas as a -125 home favorite with the total listed at 10½ 'over'.
Texas Rangers -125
Sunday, August 16th, 2009 2:15 PM EST.
San Diego Padres (49-69) at St. Louis Cardinals (66-52)
(L) Clayton Richard (2-0) vs. (R) Kyle Lohse (5-7)
Oddsmakers: St. Louis as a -180 home favorite with the total listed at 9 'over'.
St. Louis Cardinals -180
MLB Computer Picks
Los Angeles Angels +100
St. Louis Cardinals -180
New York Yankees -185
LT Profits
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
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We got burned by playing the Under in this Toronto Blue Jays, Tampa Bay Rays matchup yesterday, but we are coming right back with the same play today.
Even with that Over yesterday, the Under is still 35-18 in the last 53 head-to-head meetings including 8-3 this season. More importantly, Rays starter Matt Garza has simply owned the Blue Jays throughout his brief career. Garza has now allowed two runs or less in each of his last seven starts vs. Toronto, including three starts this season where he has allowed a total of four runs and 18 hits in 23 innings.
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Meanwhile, Marc Rzepczynski has yet to allow more than four runs in seven Major League starts including allowing three earned runs or less in five of them. He pitched well in his only start vs. the Rays this season, surrendering just one run and only two hits in six innings right here in Tampa. Not surprisingly, the Under is 5-1-1 in all of his starts thus season.
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Look for both pitchers to show up today and keep this game Under.
Pick: Blue Jays/Rays Under 8.5
Tom Freese
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers
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Los Angeles is 48-22 vs. NL West teams and they are 6-2 their last 8 games as road favorites of -151 to -200. The Dodgers are 20-7 with Randy Wolf on the mound if he has 4 days of rest. The Dodgers are 11-4 their last 15 games the Diamondbacks. Arizona is 3-11 in the last 14 starts made by Yusmeiro Petit and they are 4-10 their last 14 games as home dogs. The Diamondbacks are 11-23 on Sunday. PLAY ON LOS ANGELES -
BIG AL
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San Diego Padres at St Louis Cardinals
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Clayton Richard will take the mound for San Diego, and he's pitched better of late, going 2-0 in his last three starts with a WHIP of 1.26. His mound opponent will be Kyle Lohse, who has a stellar home ERA of 2.81 and a 1.01 WHIP (to go with his 5-3 home record). In Lohse's last game, he held Cincy to 1 run over 6 innings, and struck out three, while walking zero. And over the last three seasons vs. San Diego, Lohse has surrendered just 3 runs in 13 2/3 innings. The Cardinals are 31-15 'under' the total as a home favorite this season, and I look for another low-scoring game here. Take the 'under.'
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Play on: Under
ATS Consultants
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Houston -110 over Milwaukee
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Roy Oswalt (6-4, 3.87) needs to stop the bleeding ASAP, as this series has not gone well for the Astros thus far. Milwaukee won the first two games easy, and the Astros need Oswalt to step up and win a ballgame here as their playoff hopes are fading fast after a nice run a month or so ago. Oswalt is 1-0 with a 4.08 ERA in his last 5 starts.
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Braden Looper goes for the Brewers this afternoon, and Looper has been really inconsistent of late. He’s 10-6 with a 4.99 ERA this season, but has been hit around pretty hard in recent efforts. He’s 2-2 with a 5.16 ERA in his last 5 starts, giving up 36 hits in 29 innings.
THE SPREAD
San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
San Francisco is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against NY Mets
San Francisco is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing NY Mets
NY Mets are 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
NY Mets are 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
Pick: NY Mets
Los Angeles Angels at Baltimore Orioles
LA Angels are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games on the road
LA Angels are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 3-8 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against LA Angels
Baltimore is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
Pick: Baltimore
Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Texas
Texas is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home
Texas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Pick: Texas
Drew Gordon
Boston at TEXAS -125
For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Boston/Texas match up.
Big-time contest for both teams, as they battle for position in the AL Wildcard. Good news for Rangers-backers is they've got Dustin Nippert pitching at home in this one, where he's 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA! Granted, he allowed 5 runs on the road at Cleveland in his last one, but he struck out a career-high 10 batters, and a return home is just what the doctor ordered for him to get back on track. Look for him to bounce back nicely today against a (short-handed) Red Sox offense that's been anything but consistent of late.
Speaking of the Red Sox, they're batting just .244 against righties over their L10 games, and the fact they average just 4.4 runs per game against righties away is no accident. Boston-backers know their club is struggling on the road, going just 1-7 over their last 8 roadies. Not only that, but did you know the Sox are 0-9 in their 9 games as an underdog?!
Lastly, are you really that confident in Boston's 23-year old Japanese import, Junichi Tazawa? True, he pitched a decent game in a winning effort against the Tigers at Fenway in his last one, but getting it done in Arlington is a different story all together (Rangers 10-3 L13 home games). Not only that, but with the Red Sox bullpen struggling, posting a 6.25 ERA over their last 3 games, the Rangers will get plenty of oppurtunties in this contest. In the end, the Rangers need this game bad, sitting a 1/2 game back from Boston at this point in the wild card standings, and they've got just the pitching match up to do it. Rangers roll!
Take Texas behind Nippert over Boston and Tazawa in this MLB match up.
2♦ TEXAS
Michael Cannon
Boston at TEXAS -125
Take the Rangers for the home win over the Red Sox.
Texas is coming off a 7-2 win over Boston last night and is now within one-half game of the Red Sox in the wild-card standings.
The Rangers are 6-2 overall against the BoSox this season and have been tearing it up on the basepaths against them, stealing 17 bases in the last four meetings, including eight in last night’s win.
Dustin Nippert will start for Texas and he’s 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA on the year. The right-hander struck out 10 on Tuesday night, but got the loss after he surrendered five runs in six innings at Cleveland.
Boston will counter with rookie Junichi Tazawa, who is making his second career start.
Take the Rangers as they grab the home win.
2♦ TEXAS
Wunderdog
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Pick: Tampa Bay -180
The Blue Jays are just 24-34 on the road this season and in division games they are downright awful, having gone 16-28 on the season, scoring only 4.0 runs per game. At home, the Rays rock. They are 37-19, scoring 5.6 runs per game. They have struggled recently having lost five of their last six, but they are off a win and this is a good game to keep the momentum going. Four of those five losses were on the road and the one loss at home came at the hands of Roy Halladay, so don't be too concerned about the recent performance. The Rays start Matt Garza who has a 3.80 overall ERA which drops to 3.29 at home. Marc Rzepczynski goes for Toronto and he's got a 1-3 record and 6.75 ERA over his last three starts. When the Jays are off 2+ straight road games this season, they are 18-30. Tampa Bay is 35-11 at home in day games the past two seasons and 37-8 as a home favorite of -150 to -180. There's great value on the Rays here, even at this price.