DAVE COKIN
ROYALS VS BLUE JAYS
PLAY: ROYALS +126
Edinson Volquez and RA Dickey will be on the mound as the Royals and Blue Jays close out their weekend set in Toronto. This became a really enticing series with both KC and the Jays going all in at the trading deadline, and it has certainly lived up to expectations with two dynamite battles. I suspect we’ll get more of the same today.
The pitching matchup is pretty close. Volquez has the better season data, but the 30-day stats are close to a wash. For what it’s worth, however, Volquez has some really good numbers in his past dealings with the probable lineup he’s going to see here. On the flip side, some of the Royals have given Dickey a tough time in the past.
There’s great reason for all the excitement in Toronto, and it’s sure not going to be surprising if the Blue Jays put together a big run down the stretch. But it’s still true that this is a team that has underachieved all season as far as the W/L ledger is concerned. The Royals, on the other hand, have continued to make the most from the majority of their opportunities. This KC entry has played the entire season with loads of enthusiasm and I don’t think there’s any question they derived a great deal of motivation from the fluke tag so many assigned to them prior the start of the campaign.
It’s not easy to try and beat this thoroughly daunting Toronto lineup. But one constant remains with the Royals and that’s the premise that they need only to be even through six innings to almost always be the favorite down the stretch. The Blue Jays made a bullpen upgrade at the deadline, but their relief corps is still clearly second best in this duel and in fact, new Blue Jay Mark Lowe got victimized on Saturday.
The price here is interesting as one can perhaps make the case that it looks almost too easy to grab the generous price with the underdog Royals. But that’s the only way I can play this game as I think it’s a tossup and getting roughly a quarter with the visitors is pretty attractive. I’ll side with the Royals at plus money to win the rubber match today.
Rob Vinciletti
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Play: St. Louis Cardinals -178
The system from the database as seen below is to play on certain home favorites like the Cardinals that are off a home favored loss by 2 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs but had 5 or more hits and 0 errors, vs a road team like Colorado that won by 2 or more runs as a road dog and scored 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits. These teams have on 10 of 12 times by an average 7-3 score. The Cards have beat Colorado 7 of the last 9 here and have a big pitching edge with J. Garcia who has a 2.00 era vs Colorado lefty Flande who has a 7.20 era vs the Cardinals. Colorado is 1-12 as a road dog in this range While the Cardinals are 8-2 as a home favorite in this range. Look for St. Louis to bounce back.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -127
The Toronto Blue Jays are in a great frame of mind right now. They just traded for two of the best players in baseball in Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. They are clearly 'all-in' for the 2015 season. If not for a late blown 2-run lead to the Royals yesterday, they would have won their 4th straight games. Look for them to come back motivated today to win this series. R.A. Dickey has pitched lights out of late, going 2-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.851 WHIP in his last three starts. In fact, he has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in four straight outings. Edinson Volquez is having a solid season in Kansas City, but he clearly does not like facing the best offense in baseball in Toronto. Indeed, Volquez is 0-3 with a 7.30 ERA and 1.825 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts versus the Blue Jays. The Royals are 1-7 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning record. The Blue Jays are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. The Blue Jays are 11-3 in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Toronto is 5-0 in Dickey's last 5 starts vs. a team with a winning record.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia Phillies +105
The Philadelphia Phillies are playing their best baseball of the season right now. They have gone 12-2 in their last 14 games despite being underdogs in all but two of them. They are once again underdogs today against the Atlanta Braves when they shouldn't be.
The Braves appear to have packed it in already, losers of six straight and entering this contest on a 1-9 stretch. Julio Teheran his having an awful season, going 6-6 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.400 WHIP in 21 starts, including 1-5 with a 7.24 ERA and 1.810 WHIP in 11 road starts.
Adam Morgan has pitched well in limited action for the Phillies. He has gone 2-2 with a 4.05 ERA in six starts this season. Morgan has clearly been at his best at home, going 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA in three starts. He faced the Braves on July 3, allowing only two earned runs in seven innings of work.
The raves are 15-37 in their last 52 road games. Atlanta is 1-7 in its last eight games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Braves are 0-4 in Teheran's last four road starts. Atlanta is 0-4 in its last four meetings in Philadelphia.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Seattle Mariners -126
Edges - Mariners: Hisashi Iwakuma 2-0 day team starts this season, and visiting team is 6-2 in Iwakuma’s team starts this season. Twins: Mike Pelfrey - 0-5 last five team starts versus A.L. West, including 0-2 this season. With Iwakuma 9-2 in his last elven team starts versus A.L. Central foes, we recommend a 1* play on Seattle.
Jim Feist
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers
Play: San Francisco Giants -132
San Francisco has a top 5 offense and they pick up the DH for this series. The Giants are on a 14-4 run, 35-16 in their last 51 interleague games as a favorite. Chris Heston (3.14 ERA, 11-5) has had great season for the champs. He's allowed two runs or less in four straight starts. The Rangers are 4-12 in their last 16 home games. The Giants face Martin Perez, who is 0-2 with a 10.50 ERA. Perez took the loss Tuesday to the Yankees, as he allowed eight runs on seven hits before being yanked without recording an out in the second inning. Perez's disaster comes following two aggressively mediocre starts to open his 2015 campaign. He has yet to look himself since making his return from Tommy John surgery. The Rangers are 17-35 in their last 52 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, while the Giants are 16-5 in the last 21 meetings.
Will Rogers
Yankees vs. White Sox
Pick: White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have been one of the hottest teams in the American League since the All Star break, and they come into today's game as winners of eight of their last 10. The Yankees on the other hand have lost three of four, and they send a struggling pitcher to the mound here at U.S. Cellular Field this afternoon.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - Ivan Nova will get the call for the visiting Bronx Bombers, and he was pulled from his last start due to a dead arm. The right-hander surrendered a pair of runs on five hits and a couple walks in just five innings, failing to earn a decision at Texas. He's 1-2 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts on the road, and he's 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA in his last two starts versus Chicago. The White Sox counter with Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off back-to-back wins and owns a home record of 4-2 with a 2.86 ERA in 2015.
2. Melky Cabrera - The 2012 National League batting champion is on fire in recent weeks, batting .369 since July 1st. He's 6-for-9 with two home runs and three RBIs lifetime versus Nova.
3. X-Factor - The Yankees are 3-9 in their last 12 games at Chicago.
Bruce Marshall
Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins
Pick: Minnesota Twins
Will gladly take the Twins at this plus price on Sunday as they look to win 3 of 4 in this weekend set vs. the Mariners. The recent hot stretch by Seattle starter Hisashi iwakuma ended with a thud on Tuesday vs. the D-backs when he allwoed 6 runs and 10 hits in just 5 2/3 IP of an eventual 8-4 loss. Twins starter Mike Pelfrey, overdue for a win, has a 2.33 ERA at Target Field this season.
Mr Vegas
Arizona at Houston
Play: Over
Arizona is strong on offense, 7th in baseball in runs scored, and they pick up the DH for this series. 23-year old starter Robbie Ray has allowed 7 runs, 5 walks and 11 hits his last 11 innings. The Over is 5-1-1 in the Diamondbacks last six games as an underdog. The over is 6-1 when the Astros face an interleague team with a losing record, plus 5-1 over in their last six interleague games. Collin McHugh has a 4.43 ERA and is off a win over LA but allowed 5 runs in 5 innings. The Over is 4-0 in McHugh's last 4 interleague starts. The Over is 8-1 in Astros last 9 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter, too.
Sleepyj
Royals / Blue Jays Over 8.5
One thing that has always been consistent is the run support the Royals give Volquez..It;s no secret when the guy steps on the mound the Royals always score a bunch of runs..I see no reason why they can;t give him that same run support here today...They will have to face R.A. Dickey to get some runs today however...Dickey can be a handful if he is hitting his mark..Dickey still has a 4.27 ERA and he won;t over power this Royals lineup..Let's just say he is "due" for a bad game..Dickey has looked good for his last two starts..I think some of that has come because of the caliber of team he faced..Phil & Oakland..Prior to his last two games he lost 4 out of 5 starts and gave 14 runs in 5 games..Not to bad for Dickey actually, but i feel he will have trouble dealing with the KC lineup and working out of the stretch here today...KC will have Volquez and he himself can get hit up at times...KC has won 3 of the last 4 games, but those games all had 7 or more runs..This one looks to be an under play, but both teams should come out gunning for the win..I think we see a ton of hits in this one today..One guy or the other will be making an early exit..If the pressure gets put on eaither guy, they have a knack for falling apart very quick..i expect that from one of them today.
Mike Lundin
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Tampa Bay Rays +112
The Tampa Bay Rays are off three consecutive losses and will look to deny the Boston Red Sox a sweep of this three-game set at Fenway Park. I like the Rays in today's match-up when they send Jake Odorizzi to the mound. He's allowed just three runs on 11 hits with 13 strikeouts in 11 innings over his last two starts combined and has held the Red Sox to two runs in 13 2/3 innings for the year. Boston will turn to Wade Miley who might be 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA in two starts against Tampa Bay for the year but he's had a poor season overall compiling a 4.65 ERA so far. He's off one of his worst outings of the season when he was torched for seven runs on 10 hits in just 5 2/3 of a 9-4 home loss to the White Sox. The 28 year old southpaw is 4-4 with a 5.34 ERA home at Fenway on the year.
Notes
Tampa Bay is 12-3 in its last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Tampa Bay is 5-1 in Odorizzi's last six starts as an underdog.
Boston is 1-6 in its last seven games with umpire Greg Gibson behind home plate.
Jesse Schule
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers
Play: San Francisco Giants -131
The Giants bats continue to punish opposing pitchers with a major league best .277 batting average on the road this season. They've split the first two games of this series in Texas, but with a mismatch on the mound Sunday, I like San Fran in the rubber match. Mike Leake will make his debut for the visitors, and he's been unhittable over the last month. Leake (9-5, 3.56 ERA) tossed eight scoreless innings in a win at St. Louis his last time out. He's 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA on the road, and he's 4-1 with a 1.25 ERA in his last five starts. As good as the right-hander has been, this is still not an ideal spot, as nobody has been able to keep the ball in the park in Texas in recent weeks. The Rangers hand the ball to Martin Perez, and there's absolutely nothing positive you can say about the southpaw. Perez (0-2, 10.50 ERA) was torched for eight runs on seven hits in just one inning in a home loss to the Yankees his last time out. That was his only start in Arlington this season, and he surrendered seven runs on 15 hits over 11 innings in two previous appearances on the road. After the bullpen gave up back to back jacks in the 11th inning last night, Texas relievers rank last in the major leagues with a 4.73 ERA.
Don Best Consensus
Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros
Houston starter McHugh is 3-0 his L3 starts. Houston, bolstered by several trades at the deadline for both pitching and hitting, are 4-1 their L5. McHugh has been solid this season, with a 12-5 record. Astros take the series.
Steve Rosen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros -144
The Houston Astros will post their fifth consecutive home series win when they take on the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday in the rubber match of their three-game interleague set. Houston has won four straight home series since splitting four games with the New York Yankees from June 25-28 and hasn't lost a set at Minute Maid Park since dropping two of three to the Chicago White Sox at the end of May! The Astros lost the opener of this series before rolling to a 9-2 triumph Saturday as rookie phenom Carlos Correa posted his first career two-homer performance and Hank Conger added a pair of blasts, including a grand slam. Also, Arizona is likely to be without center fielder A.J. Pollock for a second straight game because of tightness behind his left knee.Ray's winless streak reached three starts Monday, and it is going to reach 4 today. On the other handMcHugh won his third straight start Tuesday despite surrendering five runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings against the Los Angeles Angels. The 28-year-old Illinois native yielded a total of three runs over 13 frames in his previous two triumphs.