Cajun Sports
Chicago White Sox (-) vs. New York Yankees
The third and final game of the Yankees White Sox series takes place on Sunday afternoon at US Cellular Field in the Second City. The Yankees will send Ivan Nova to the bump with his 3-3 record and ERA of 3.38. The Sox will counter with Jeff Samardzija who has been red hot of late with an ERA of 2.78 over his last nine outings and he has thrown for seven innings in thirteen of his last fourteen trips to the bump. The Sox are 7-3 in Samardzijas last ten starts when he goes on four days rest. Chicago has been plating some runs of late and they have the edge on the bump so we will back them here as they get the win on Sunday. Chicago White Sox
Nelly
Cleveland at Oakland
Play: Cleveland
Sonny Gray has been one of the top pitchers in the AL this season but he has not been consistently dominant the last two months. He is coming off a complete game shutout in his last start but he has allowed three or more runs in four of his last seven starts. He did dominate the Indians in Cleveland in his last start before the All Star break but Gray has actually been a far worse pitcher in Oakland with his ERA nearly twice as high while posting a 3-3 record compared to an 8-1 mark on the road. Oakland has had one of the worst bullpens in baseball all season long and the Athletics are just 22-31 at home on the season. The Athletics have played with little life since making several trade deadline moves all playing towards the future. Yesterday’s win over rookie Cody Anderson was just the second in nine games for Oakland with the offense held to three or fewer runs in seven of those nine games. Against Danny Salazar and Carlos Carrasco earlier in this series the Oakland offense produced very little and Trevor Bauer is another right-hander with great stuff. Like Gray Bauer has pitched far better on the road where his WHIP is 1.05 and his ERA 2.47. He should have success in the spacious Coliseum and he has been far better in day games as well. Since the break Cleveland has been the superior scoring team while posting nine hit per game compared with just over seven hits per game for the Athletics. The Indians are the top team in the AL in taking walks compared with a very poor walk rate for the Athletics and Cleveland has a far better recent extra-base hit rate as well. Even though these teams have similar disappointing records Cleveland’s profile is stronger and the Indians gave a far less clear sell signal at the deadline as Oakland has clearly mailed in the season.
SPORTS WAGERS
MIAMI -1 +111 over San Diego
Jose Fernandez walked four and didn’t miss his normal complement of bats in his last outing but through five starts his overall velocity, missed bats and other indicators are all looking very positive. Today, he’ll be at home against a San Diego group he has dominated in the past and that has piled up strikeouts this season (8.4/game) while notching a mere .667 OPS (29th MLB). Jose Fernandez has never lost at home in his career with a mark of 15-0 to go along with an ERA of 1.52. But it’s more than all that. Fernandez’s passion for the game of baseball and for life is infectious. When he’s on the mound there is a different dynamic on that field. Fernandez is the biggest cheerleader in that Marlins clubhouse. When he pitches, his teammates want to win so badly for him because he so likeable and because of his infectious attitude. He also draws fans to the game from a heavy populated Spanish area. Jose Fernandez is a different breed. He’s not as animated as someone like Mark “the Bird” Fidrych, who pitched for the Tigers in the mid-70’s (you young guys can youtube that and watch Fidrych) but he has the same effect on his teammates and in the clubhouse. Fernandez is not only a winner but he has filthy stuff too.
As it happens, Fernandez is up against one of our top fades this season in James Shields. The market still doesn’t recognize how bad Shields is because his surface stats say otherwise. In fact, Shields has a 2.45 ERA over his last five starts but once again it’s all smoke and mirrors. Petco Park can make a lot of poor pitchers look good and that is precisely what it has done for Shields. On the road, however, Shields’ has an ERA of 4.90 with an xERA of 5.02. His overall line drive rate is 26% and that makes him the second hardest hit pitcher in baseball. Shields’ strand rate at home this year is a remarkable 88% and that’s the reason for his low ERA. His strand rate on the road is a normal 74% (league average is 73%) and so there is nothing helping out his 4.90 road ERA. Throw in a first-pitch strike rate of 54% over his last eight starts and you can expect to see even more walks out of him. The betting market views Shields as a very good pitcher with a bad club. We’re here to tell you he’s a garbage pitcher with a bad club and so the fade continues.
Arizona +135 over HOUSTON
Collin McHugh is a rags to rich story. Formerly Colorado's waiver fodder and N.Y. Mets farm-hand, Houston picked up Collin McHugh, owner of a career 8.94 ERA at the MLB level -- in December of 2013 and inserted him into the rotation in April following a Scott Feldman injury. So, color us surprised that he's won 29 games since with an ERA of 3.55. McHugh carried forward his breakout 2014 into April of 2015: 8.4 K’s/9, 1.5 BB’s/9, 55% groundballs. He was still good in May, but his skills eroded quite a bit: 6.7 K’s/9, 2.7 BB’s/9, 43% groundballs%. He was firmly mediocre in June: 7.6 K’s/9, 3.1 BB’s/9, 41% groundballs. In July, he averaged just 5.3 K’s/9 while walking three batters per nine innings. As a late-blooming starting pitcher with very little in the way of track record, that slide makes him a sell-high target. Average pitchers can only fool major-league hitters for so long and McHugh way well be on his way to pitching himself right out of the rotation. He’s also been much better on the road since this story began than he has at Minute Maid Park.
Robbie Ray’s fastball has increased this year by 3 mph. That’s the biggest velocity increase in the entire league over one season. Toward the end of last season, Ray had a couple stints in the bullpen, where his velocity played up. This year, that’s carried over despite Ray being asked to throw six innings or more a start. His bullpen velocity boost has sustained, and now we have his average fastball at 93.5 mph. For the sake of reference, we have Clayton Kershaw at 93.6 and David Price at 93.8. Ray has a big-league lefty fastball now and he’s struck out 30 batters over his last 30 innings while throwing just 67 innings this year. It’s commonly noted that velocity isn’t everything, and that’s true, because the most important thing is putting your pitches where you want them to be. Ray has adjusted his breaking ball. He’s gone to a slurve with a little more depth, and his breaking-ball whiff rate has more than doubled.There’s no getting around the fact that velocity is important. Ray has increased his fastball usage more than 10 percentage points, and the fastball itself is getting more whiffs. So Ray has been having success, even while pitching without so many of his changeups, which were thought to be good, once upon a time. It’s evident that the fastball is faster. And compared to last year in the majors, Ray is getting more swings and misses. He’s getting more strikeouts, and issuing fewer walks. He’s having more success against righties and there was progress in Triple-A, as well. Between 2014 and 2015, in Triple-A, Ray nearly doubled his strikeout rate. There were still walks, but those were offset. Ray was getting ahead more often in the minors, and he’s getting ahead more often in the majors. He’s checking off so many of the right boxes. Overall, Ray has a BB/K split of 17/58 in 67 frames. That’s an outstanding 4-1 ratio. Ray comes in with a 2.70 ERA and a 2.96 ERA over his last five starts. His groundball rate is way up (53% last game) and his line drive rate is way down (18%). Robbie Ray is so under the radar because he pitches for the Diamondbacks and because he started the season late and has thrown a small sample size of just 67 innings. Ray’s underlying numbers says everything in his profile is legit, which makes him a great buy-low target.
L.A. Angels +140 over L.A. DODGERS
The Dodgers had to do something to increase their chances of making the playoffs because if they get there, they’re going to be difficult to beat with Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw pitching games 1, 2, 6 and 7. The challenge is hanging on and so in an attempt to do so, the Dodgers picked up Matt Latos from the Marlins among others in a multi-player deal that also included Alex Wood. Latos will make his first start in his new digs here. Latos struggled with injuries in 2014 and the beginning of this season, but his velocity and performance have improved since April and May. With 8+ K’s/9 and a sub-3 ERA/xERA since the beginning of June, Latos is on a more promising trajectory than Wood but we’re not convinced that he’s worth this price. Latos still has a very high line-drive rate of 26% and his first pitch strike rate is way down to 51% over his last five starts. We’ve seen many pitchers over the years struggle in their first start with their new team after the All-Star break. It’s not an easy transition. You get uprooted, you step into a new clubhouse and you’re not familiar with your new battery mate either.
Cory Rasmus could be a real gem in the makings. Rasmus quietly had a 2.28 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in a variety of roles with the Angels in the second half of 2014 and those marks came with good skill support. His high strikeout rate (9.8 K’s/9) was supported by a high 13% swing and miss rate. Rasmus is a starter with three strong swing-and-miss pitches: 27% on changeups, 14% on curveballs and 13% on sliders. Rasmus has not burst onto the scene because he has battled arm problems throughout his career with three arm surgeries in five seasons limiting him to 13 innings between 2006-‘08. He regained his fastball velocity and came onto the prospect scene with a breakout 2012 followed by a strong 2013 that saw him post a 1.94 ERA with a 10.9 K’s/9 over 46 innings. Rasmus throws a four-pitch arsenal with three-plus pitches including a fastball that can hit 95 mph with life, a sweeping curveball, and a mid-80s mph change-up that some scouts say is a devastating pitch. He goes after hitters aggressively with his fastball early in the count and uses his secondary offerings to put them away. In 78 career major-league innings, Rasmus has allowed just 66 hits while whiffing 80 batters. Reports are that he’s never felt better and is finally ready to make an impact. At this price, it’s worth finding out.
Michael Alexander
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers
Play: San Francisco Giants -130
Mike Leake is in the midst of a hot streak as he makes his San Francisco debut in Sunday's finale of a three-game set against the Texas Rangers. Leake was acquired from Cincinnati for two minor-leaguers and allowed only two runs while winning his last four starts for the Reds. Leake is stepping into the rotation spot that belonged to Tim Hudson, who was placed on the disabled list with shoulder soreness. He pitched eight innings of four-hit shutout ball to defeat St. Louis 4-0 in his last outing.
World Wide Sports
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: hicago White Sox -122
The ChiSox are on a sweet 8-2 run and will look to add to it today vs the New York Yankees. Jeff Sarmadzija aka the Shark gets the start for Chicago. The Shark has been a beast at home where he's carrying a 2.86 ERA. The Yankees will send Nova to the hill today. Nova is talented but he's had some issues recently. Nova was pulled out of his late start due to dead arm and I don't look for him to go late into this game either.
Larry Ness
San Francisco Giants at Texas Rangers
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
Mike Leake (9-5, 3.56 ERA) was acquired by San Francisco on Thursday from Cincinnati for two prospects and makes his first start for the Giants on Sunday in Texas. "He's a quality starter who's going to help us," SF manager Bruce Bochy Bochy said. "He's excited about being here. He's been throwing the ball well, good athlete. That's a great move for us to give us some depth in the rotation." Leake steps into the rotation in place of the injured Tim Hudson (shoulder) and has allowed just two ERs on 15 hits in 30 innings (0.60 ERA) while winning four straight starts, completing the eighth in three. He did just that while limiting NL-leading St Louis to four hits in Tuesday's 4-0 road win.
Leake has to like the fact that his new team has won 14 of its past 17 contests to move 1 1/2 games back of the NL West-leading LA Dodgers. The Giants bounced back from Friday's 6-3 loss in the series opener by spoiling Cole Hamels' Rangers debut with a 9-7, 11-inning victory Saturday. The win makes San Francisco 15-8 (plus-$920) when facing a left-handed starter in 2015 and today San Francisco draws another lefty, in Texas' Martin Perez.
Perez (0-2, 10.50) gets a fourth chance at his first win since returning from Tommy John surgery. He surrendered a career high-tying eight runs before getting an out in the second inning and being pulled in Tuesday's 21-5 loss to the New York Yankees. He has now allowed 22 hits in 12 innings over three starts since returning from Tommy John elbow surgery, giving him a 10.50 ERA, 2.33 WHIP and opponents are batting a ridiculous .407 against him.
Throw in the fact that the Rangers 19-29 home record represents the fewest home wins of ANY of MLB's 30 teams and the bet HAS to be on the Giants.
Brandon Lee
San Francisco Giants -109
San Francisco will send out newly acquired Mike Leake against the struggling Martin Perez of the Rangers. Leake has a sensational 2.28 ERA and 0.859 WHIP in 10 road starts and has been lights out with a 0.82 ERA and 0.682 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Perez on the other hand has an awful 10.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in 3 starts this season. Texas is 8-25 in their last 33 home games after allowing 8 or more runs.
Jimmy Boyd
New York Mets -121
New York has taken each of the first 2 games in the series and with a victory in the finale can move into a tie for 1st in the NL East. Hard to not like their chances with the edge they have on the mound, plus they are showing great value here as a small favorite at home, where they are 37-18 on the season.
The Mets will send out Noah Syndergaard, who has a 2.91 ERA and 1.085 WHIP Over 14 starts. Syndergaard has been even better at home, where he's 5-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.791 WHIP in 7 starts. Washington counters with Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 4.65 ERA and 1.510 WHIP in 9 road starts and a 4.24 ERA in his last 3 outings.
Mets are 15-3 in their last 18 off a 1-run win, 33-7 in their last 40 when listed as a home favorite of -110 or higher and 9-0 in their last 9 off a 1-run win against a division rival.
Coach Fletcher
Nationals +125
The Mets tough rookie Noah Syndergaard takes on the Nationals Jordan Zimmerman in New York in the Sunday late game. Syndergaard is 5-5 with a 2.91 era and Zimmerman is 8-6 with a 3.36 era. These same two pitchers matched up not too long ago in Washington with Zimmerman getting the nod. I look for a similar result tonight. In the 4-3 win, Zimmerman went 7 innings allowing 3 runs on 7 hits, walking zero and fanning 6. Syndergaard went 5 innings giving up 1 run on 5 hits while walking 5 and fanning 4. Syndergaard came back to go 8 innings against the Padres allowing 3 hits and 0 runs. Zimmerman lost to the Marlins going 6 innings and allowing 3 runs and 8 hits. In 13 innings against the Mets this year Zimmerman has given up 4 runs on 12 hits while fanning 10. I’m willing to admit that Syndergaard is the better pitcher here. But there are a few reasons why it is tough to bet the Mets. In the last 3 seasons, Washington is 33-17 against the Mets. The Teams are knotted at 6 a piece this year. Washington is even better in New York where they are 19-7 over the last 3 years. This year they are tied a 3 each. The other reason I like the Nationals is that they average 4.2 runs per game to only 3.5 for the Mets. That is why the Nats won the last battle between these same two pitchers. The Nats also average 4.5 runs on the road while the Metropolitans average 4.1 at home. The Nats average 4.1 versus RHP and the Mets check in at 3.7. In night games, Washington outscores the Mets 4.2 to 3.1. These are important numbers and to get them with a small dog is a good thing.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight: San Diego at MIAMI (-150)
The SMART INTANGIBLE for my play today - Miami has lost four straight and is on a 3-7 slide. If there was ever a time for the Marlins to snap their losing skid, it's in this game here. They have the right motivation to do so, and should save face in not allowing the road team to finish the sweep.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is Jose Fernandez, who has a very good shot at getting into the record books. The young right-handed phenom is just one win shy of tying Johnny Allen (1932-33) and LaMarr Hoyt (1980-82) for most consecutive decisions won at home to start a career. Miami's ace is 15-0 with a 1.19 ERA in 23 home starts.
In SUMMARY, why this is the SMART PLAY with this game - The Padres are handing the ball to veteran James Shields, but he's failed to impress me this season, and has been far too inconsistent all year. I know he lowered his ERA in July, but he was the only Padres starter to miss Miami during the Marlins' four-game series at Petco Park last weekend, and I'm not sure he will know what to do against this lineup in Miami.
5* MIAMI
Scott Delaney
My free play for Sunday is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Pittsburgh Pirates, and in this National League Central clash, I want you listing Keyvius Sampson over Charlie Morton.
We have the advantage here, as Sampson toes the slab in the right spot, at the time, in making his first career start after making his Major League debut on Thursday, when he threw one scoreless inning of relief work.
The hard-throwing right-hander allowed just five hits across eight scoreless frames in his last start with Triple-A Louisville on July 24, and now he'll be out to prove himself at the big-league level. His array of pitches should put him at an advantage against the overzealous Pirates lineup.
As for Morton, well, here is a guy who is winless in his past five starts, and a lot of that has to do with his inability to get out of the first inning unscathed. Over his 12 starts, he has allowed 16 runs (15 earned) in the first. I know he has done well at Great American Ball Park, but today, I think the Reds' lineup is going to back its youngster on the hill by getting to Morton quick.
Take the home team here, and list both pitchers.
4* CINCINNATI
Chris Jordan
Surprise, surprise - my free play for tonight is on the Philadelphia Phillies, as I side against the Atlanta Braves for a fifth-straight night with my free play. This continues to be about going against the struggling Braves, rather than siding with their opponent. I don't trust the Braves at all right now, as their offense produced one run in the series-opener with the Orioles, they were blown out 7-3 five nights back and then were shut out four nights back.
Three nights ago in this series-opener, another putrid performance, as they lost 4-1 and then they get crushed 9-3 two nights ago. Last night the Braves were pounded 12-2. Atlanta has struggled so bad, it's now nine back of the Nationals in the National League East, and has lost six straight and 11 of 15.
The Braves are 20-38 on the highway and will continue to struggle against a team with nothing to prove. Play the Phils here, and I want you listing Morgan over Teheran, as it's a revenge game for him.
5* PHILADELPHIA
Brad Wilton
Sunday's free play winner is the Over in the Tigers-Orioles contest.
Last night the teams combined for 8 runs, as the final score landed on the closing total of 8 for a push. The official tally now for the Tigers is 29-8-2 Over the total in their last 39 games played, and they are also on an overall run of 36-15-3 Over the total their last 54 games contested.
No sense in trying to build a case for the Under today, as Daniel Norris will make his first start of the season for Detroit after coming over in the David Price deal with the Blue Jays. This is Norris' first start since the end of April, and his first against the Orioles who have dinged Detroit pitching for 22 runs so far in these 3 games played.
Ublado Jiminez was hit hard by the Tigers in his first start after the All-Star break, and is now 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA his last 4 starts against Detroit.
Take the Over to conclude things in Baltimore this weekend.
3* DETROIT-BALTIMORE OVER
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Indians-Athletics Under the posted price with Trevor Bauer and Sonny Gray listed to start.
Bauer is in a rut, 0-3 his last 3, with a sky-high 6.16 ERA in those 3 losses, but 2 of those 3 games did stay Under the total. Going to look for Bauer to get back on track against one of the best young arms in the game in Sonny Gray.
Gray was one of the arms Oakland decided to keep before the trade deadline, and with good reason. He enters today's game with an 11-4 mark for the year, and a 2.16 season ERA. The Under stands at 4-0-1 in Gray's last 5 season starts, while the Under is 8-0-1 in Bauer's last 9 road starts, and 13-6-1 overall in his 20 assignments this year.
With last night's Under, these teams have played 4 straight Unders this season, and Unders in 5 of the 6 season series meetings this year.
Stick with the trends that say the Under is the call.
5* CLEVELAND-OAKLAND UNDER