Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on NY Yankees -134
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While Buehrle has been great this season, he hasn't had any success against the Yankees. He is 1-6 with a 6.11 ERA in eight starts versus the Yankees, including 0-4 with a 6.91 ERA in five home outings. In fact, the White Sox are 0-5 in Buehrle's last 5 home starts vs. the Yankees and 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the Yankees overall. On top of that, he hasn't had good success when going head-to-head with Sabathia. The White Sox are just 2-7 in the last 9 meetings when Buehrle faces Sabathia. Sabathia has owned the Sox, going 14-4 with an ERA of 3.65 and a WHIP of 1.236 in his career. Plus, he is 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA in 13 starts at U.S. Cellular Field for his best visiting record in any A.L. park. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last 9 during game 4 of a series and I'll take a hungry Yankees club here for a unit.
Yankee Capper
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Milwaukee Brewers +110
Boston Red Sox -160
Philadelphia Phillies -160
LA Dodgers +115
Dwayne Bryant
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Play White Sox +135
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The Yankees have looked awful at US Cellular Field in the last three games. No pitching (including the pen) and no clutch hitting to be found. I can't see that changing today against Mark Buehrle, the hottest pitcher in baseball. Buehrle comes into this one after setting a Major League record by retiring 45 straight batters. He does have a 1-5 record with a 6.11 ERA lifetime against the Yankees, which kept me from making this a bigger play. But if ever there was a time for Buehrle to get a W against the Yankees, it's now, with them struggling and he being on fire. Sabathia hasn't been the dominant force he was paid to be and I just think this price is too good to pass up, all things considered. I'll take the White Sox for a half-unit.
Freddy Wills
Take the Mets -108
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I'm going with the Mets today as my free play they will be facing another RH starter which they have seemed to do fairly well over the last week and a half. It's the lefties they really struggle against. With Big Pelfrey on the mound I expect a third quality start here today.
Pelfrey will have the liberty of not having to face slugger Mark Reynolds who is 2nd in the NL with 29 HR's as he takes a seat on Sunday! Pelfrey has a 3.90 home ERA this year and of his 3 starts vs. ARI he has just 1 at home last year where he went 8 innings and gave up 5H 1ER and 8K's.l The Mets are 8-0 in their last 8 home with Pelfrey on the mound vs. a team with a losing record.
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Garland will take the mound for the Dbacks and he has been solid on the road this year. However I expect he'll give up a couple of runs and not get much in return. After all the Dbacks are 0-7 in Garlands last 7 as a road dog. He's coming off a quality start in which his team usually loses in the next game. Dbacks are 2-9 following a quality start from Garland. Let's go with the Mets to keep hitting RH starters.
VEGAS EXPERTS
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Los Angeles Angels at Minnesota Twins
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The Angels are red hot right now having won 11 of their previous 13 and with the struggling Glen Perkins (9.69 ERA L3 starts) on the hill for the Twins, we see LA completing the sweep of this weekend set. The Halos are now an astounding 11-0 this season when coming off BB wins by four runs or more, something they have done in each of their last three games. They are also 21-8 in day games this season and 22-10 vs. lefties. Break out those brooms.
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Play on: LA Angels
Vernon Croy
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
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Take the Toronto Blue Jays on the Moneyline, We are getting solid value here with the Jays who are 5-1 in their last 6 games against a right hand starter. The Jays are 6-1 in Ricky Romero's (9-4, 3.59 ERA) last 7 starts when the posted total is 7.0 to 8.5 and they are 4-1 in his last 5 road starts. Romero allowed just 4 hits and no earned runs over 7 innings in his only start against the Athletics back on May.19 and I look for him to have a solid outing today. Vin Mazzaro (2-7, 5.16) takes the mound for the Athletics and he has struggled over his last 3 starts with an ERA of 10.80 while allowing 27 hits over just 13.3 innings and I look for the Jays to hit him hard this afternoon. The Athletics opponents are hitting .315 against them over their last 7 games while averaging 6.9 rpg and they are just 1-8 in Mazzaro's last 9 starts. Take the Toronto Blue Jays Sunday afternoon.
Nelly
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San Diego Padres - over Milwaukee Brewers
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Milwaukee continues to struggle, having gone 9-18 in the last 27 games. The Brewers are hitting .263 in the last ten games and scoring a decent amount of runs but the pitching has been terrible and there seems to be an overall decline in spirits with a team that was leading the division just weeks ago and then did little at the trade deadline. Out of necessity Carlos Villanueva will get another start for Milwaukee but he has had a rough season. As a starter and a reliever Villanueva is 2-8 with a 6.61 ERA. He allowed eight hits and five runs in his last start, lasting just four innings and he is backed up by a bullpen that has completely fallen apart, featuring a 6.96 ERA in the last ten games. San Diego is still a .500 home team and the Padres have won five consecutive games entering this series finale. San Diego is batting .285 in the last ten games including .316 against right-handed pitching and Kevin Correia has turned into a solid pitcher. A few rough outings keep Correia’s overall numbers looking average but he has allowed three ore fewer earned runs in eight of his last ten outings. San Diego is 7-4 when he starts at home this year as well.
LARRY NESS
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Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
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The Atlanta offense has been inconsistent for much of the year but the Braves have used some strong pitching (team's 3.75 ERA ranks 4th in all of MLB) to stay within striking distance in the NL East and wild-card race (Braves trail the Phils by seven games and the Rockies and Giants by four games). The Dodgers continue to have MLB's best record (64-40) and maintain a solid seven-game lead over the Giants and Rockies in the NL West. The pitching matchup for the rubber game of this series is a good one, with Chad Billingsley squaring off against Jair Jurrjens. Billingsley is 10-6 with a 3.96 ERA in 22 starts (team is 14-8) but he's under some pressure these days with his recent struggles. Billingsley won nine of his first 12 decisions and had a 2.72 ERA on June 14 through 14 starts (team was 11-3). However, he's just 1-3 with four no decisions in his last eight starts (team is 3-5), posting a 6.46 ERA. Meanwhile, Jurrjens has been the Braves' best pitcher this season. He's just 9-7 in 22 starts (team is only 11-11) but he's allowed three ERs or less in 19 of his 22 starts (2.69 ERA), including NINE of his last 10. He's allowed just five ERs over 25.2 innings of his last four starts (1.75 ERA), winning three in a row before getting a no decision in his last outing. Jurrjens beat the Dodgers twice last year, allowing two ERs and eight hits in 13 innings (1.38 ERA), while Chad Billingsley is 0-2 with a 5.93 ERA in two career starts vs the Braves. The Braves have won 11 of their last 14 home games and with this three-game series being the team's only home games between July 24 and Aug. 9, expect Atlanta to play well before the ESPN cameras and continue Billingsley's recent woes, as Jurrjens again pitches well. Take the Braves.
Mike Anthony
Chicago Cubs vs Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins
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Let’s start with the Florida right-hander, who was forced to take a no decision his last time out even though he held the Braves to two runs on seven hits over seven innings while striking out five. His durability emerged, however, as he pitched himself out of several jams at home. The Marlins are 2-1 in his last three starts, in which he has a 2.79 ERA – much better than the season number of 5.24. Nolasco is 2-1 with a 3.60 ERA in three career starts against the Cubs.
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Starting for Chicago, it’s a very rusty Dempster, who didn’t look like himself in his first outing in 3-1/2 weeks. After being sidelined with a broken right big toe, suffered July 5 in a freak dugout accident, he threw 85 pitches over five innings and gave up six runs on nine hits. He wasn't sharp at all, and consistently had trouble finding his location. Looking inside the numbers, the Cubs are on losing streaks of 16-36 as the road pup, 2-6 on the road against a winning team, 1-6 with Dempster on the hill, 2-12 when he’s listed as the road underdog and 1-11 in his last 12 on the highway overall.
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With just one win in Dempster’s last seven starts, and now having to face a Marlins team that has won eight of their last 11 and seven of Nolasco’s last nine starts, I’ll side with the home team, as your free play!
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
TOR (-125) vs OAK
After picking up a rare road victory, the Blue Jays look to win their first series away from Toronto in nearly seven weeks in the finale of a three-game set with the Oakland Athletics on Sunday. Ricky Romero is 3-0 with a 3.93 ERA in his last five road starts since allowing one run in 6 1-3 innings in a 1-0 loss at Texas on June 11. Toronto has also won seven of Romero?s last nine starts overall. Vin Mazzaro (2-7, 5.16) takes the ball for Oakland in the finale, again seeking his first victory in nearly two months; I look for him to struggle again today. Look for TORONTO to improve to 4-1 (+2.6 units) as a road favorite of -125 to -150!
Nite Owl Sports
Indiana Fever @ Washington Mystics
Pick: 5 units Indiana Fever -120
We'll go with league-leading Indy (best record in WNBA, at 14-4) here, as we believe them to be the better team and they are favored by an enticing -1.5 ATS or -120 on the ML. And while 10 of those 14 Indy wins TY have come at home, Fever is a decent 4-3 SU and ATS away, with one of those four road wins by 12 at wash. And Indy not only has a good history at Wash (5-1 SU and ATS L6), but the Fever should be focused for this game, not only because they sleep walked through their last roadie (a bad loss at SA), but also because they needed a 4Q comeback just to win SU in their last game vs Wash, a 4 point win at home just a few days ago.
Wash is a middle of the pack team, with a decent home record TY (6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS), but is just 4-5 ATS after their first nine wins TY (compared to 7-1 ATS off a loss), which is relevant here because they are coming off a win in their LG. Moreover, the Mystics are 0-2 TY at home against the only two really good teams they have played there, losing by 12 to Indy and 6 to Phx.
For this game Indy opened at -1.5 and -120, which it still is, but we would not be surprised to see both lines jump later today as game time approaches, with Indy sporting the best record in WNBA (note that despite WNBA being a low profile “off season” sport, there are plenty of Vegas “sharps” who realize that there is money to be made by betting into these frequently “soft” WNBA lines, like this one).
So we’ll grab Indy now for a five unit pick at this ML price of -120, which we believe gives us better value than laying the -1.5 points at -110 odds, especially when you consider that (i) just four points separated these two the last time they played (earlier this week, at Indy), (ii) Wash has already played two one point games TY at home (beating NY by one and losing to SA by one), and (iii) one of Indy’s road wins TY was by one, at NY in OT.