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Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday August 23,2009

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SPORTS ADVISORS

San Francisco (67-56) at Colorado (69-54)

A battle of the N.L.’s top wild-card contenders resumes when the Giants send ace right-hander Tim Lincecum (12-3, 2.37 ERA) against fellow righty Ubaldo Jimenez (11-9, 3.41) and the Rockies at Coors Field for the third game of a four-game set.

The Rockies rallied from a 6-1 fourth-inning deficit Saturday night to win a shootout 14-11, putting up seven runs in the sixth inning and four more in the seventh. The Rockies are on a 49-23 roll in their last 72 games and are on further upticks of 8-3 at home and 6-1 on Sunday, However, they are just 2-4 in their last six against winning teams.

The Giants are 2-5 in their last seven Sunday contests but are on a 4-2 overall run with two games left on their 11-game road trip. San Francisco still has a slim 5-4 edge in this rivalry in 2009, but the Giants are just 2-5 in Lincecum’s last seven starts against Colorado.

The Giants have won two in a row and four of five behind Lincecum, including an 8-5, 10-inning victory Tuesday at Cincinnati, despite the right-hander having a rough outing. He allowed five runs on six hits and three walks in six innings, getting a no-decision. Lincecum is 5-2 with a solid 2.82 ERA in 12 road starts this year, and he’s 3-2 with a 4.40 ERA in eight career starts against Colorado.

Jimenez has won his last four starts, going eight innings three times and allowing five earned runs in 30 2/3 innings in that four-game stretch for a 1.46 ERA, and Colorado has won in six of the righty’s last seven starts. On Tuesday at Washington, he allowed two runs on seven hits and a walk in eight innings of a 4-3 victory.

Jimenez is 6-4 with a 3.31 ERA in 11 home starts this year, and he’s 2-2 with a 2.44 ERA in seven career starts against San Francisco. The Rockies are also 10-4 in Jimenez’s last 14 home starts, but they are 1-4 in the 25-year-old’s last five Sunday outings.

The under for San Francisco is on rolls of 5-2 behind Lincecum, 4-1 on Sunday, 8-2-1 against righty starters and 21-11-4 in the National League West, and with Jimenez starting, the under is on runs for Colorado of 4-0 overall and 4-0 against winning teams. However, the over for the Rockies is on surges of 8-0-1 against winning teams and 5-1-2 at home, with last night’s tilt sailing over the posted price of 9½.

Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2 in Jimenez’s last seven starts against the Giants, but with Lincecum hurling, the over is on stretches of 5-2-1 overall versus Colorado and 4-1 at Coors Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

N.Y. Yankees (77-46) at Boston (70-52)

After a pair of blowouts in the first two games of this three-game weekend set, the Red Sox send Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.38 ERA) to the Fenway Park mound against CC Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) and the Yankees in a battle of aces at Fenway Park.

Boston, which got drubbed 20-11 Friday night, bounced back Saturday with a 14-1 beatdown, scoring seven runs over the first two innings and finishing with 14 hits. The Sox are on rolls of 38-17 at home and 30-14 at Fenway against lefty starters, but they are also just 4-7 in their last 11 A.L. East contests.

New York remains on tears of 39-14 overall, 9-3 on the highway, 24-8 in division play and 36-18 against winning teams. The Bronx Bombers lost the first eight games of the season to Boston, then won the next five before Saturday’s blowout loss. The Red Sox are 8-1 in the last nine Fenway clashes, and behind Beckett, the Sox are on runs against the Yanks of 7-2 overall and 4-1 at home.

The BoSox are 9-2 in Beckett’s last 11 starts, getting a 10-9 victory Tuesday at Toronto despite the 29-year-old allowing seven runs on nine hits (three homers) and a walk. Beckett is a perfect 8-0 with a 2.58 ERA in 11 home starts this season, and he’s 9-4 in 16 career starts against New York, despite a somewhat inflated 5.03 ERA. On Aug. 7 at New York, he threw seven shutout innings in a 2-0, 15-inning loss.

Boston is on additional hot streaks behind Beckett of 19-7 overall, 10-1 at home and 6-1 in division play.

Sabathia is 6-1 in his last seven starts, winning the last four in a row, and he’s allowed just three runs in 22 2/3 innings over his last three trips to the hill for a 1.19 ERA. On Tuesday, he allowed two runs on five hits and a walk with seven strikeouts in a 7-2 win at Oakland. The Yanks are on runs backing the southpaw of 5-2 on the road and 4-1 against winning teams.

Sabathia is 9-5 with a 3.54 ERA in 15 road starts this season, and he’s 3-5 with a 3.57 ERA in nine career starts against Boston. On Aug. 8, he threw 7 2/3 shutout innings in the Yanks’ 5-0 home victory.

In this rivalry, the under was on a 6-1-1 run at Fenway before the first two games of this series flew over the posted price. The over is on a 9-1 roll for Boston at home, and the over for New York is on surges of 6-1 against righties, 7-2 on the road against winning teams, 8-3-1 behind Sabathia and 7-1 in the southpaw’s last eight road starts.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and OVER

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 6:39 am
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DUNKEL INDEX

St. Louis at San Diego
The Padres look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 1-6 in its last 7 road games when the total is set from 9 to 10 1/2. San Diego is the pick (+165) according to Dunkel, which has the Padres favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+165)

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Martinez) 15.602; NY Mets (Perez) 15.821
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-185); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+175); Under

Game 903-904: Florida at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.263; Atlanta (Lowe) 15.567
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under

Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.876; Pittsburgh (Hart) 13.961
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Over

Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 13.587; Washington (Stammen) 15.131
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 10
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+105); Over

Game 909-910: Arizona at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Garland) 14.671; Houston (Norris) 14.332
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Under

Game 911-912: San Francisco at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.475; Colorado (Jimenez) 16.164
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-110); Under

Game 913-914: St. Louis at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Smoltz) 14.713; San Diego (Carrillo) 14.848
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Under

Game 915-916: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 15.571; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 15.149
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+165); Under

Game 917-918: Seattle at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 16.924; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.866
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Over

Game 919-920: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Bell) 14.646; Toronto (Romero) 14.714
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 10
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-130); Under

Game 921-922: Texas at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Feldman) 16.734; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.570
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+155); Under

Game 923-924: Baltimore at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Berken) 14.727; White Sox (Buehrle) 16.002
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-240); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-240); Under

Game 925-926: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Pavano) 14.215; Kansas City (Bannister) 15.509
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Over

Game 927-928: Detroit at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.013; Oakland (Tomko) 16.049
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+135); Over

Game 929-930: NY Yankees at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 17.430; Boston (Beckett) 16.352
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-110); Over

WNBA

Los Angeles at Atlanta
The Dream look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 home games. Atlanta is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2)

Game 601-602: Los Angeles at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 112.971; Atlanta 117.197
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 166
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Over

Game 603-604: Minnesota at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 106.806; New York 114.214
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 7 1/2; 152
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5; 157
Dunkel Pick: New York (-5); Under

Game 605-606: San Antonio at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 108.536; Detroit 111.119
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2 1/2; 141
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit; Under

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 6:40 am
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Vernon Croy
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LAA Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play:LAA Angels
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Angels are 17-4 in their last 21 games as an underdog. The Angels are 7-1 in their last 8 road games as an underdog of +110 to +150 and they are hitting .288 as a team on the road this season while averaging 5.8 rpg. The Blue Jays are hitting just .229 as a team over their last 7 games while averaging just 3.9 rpg and they are just 2-10 in their last 12 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.95) has given up four or more runs in five of his last seven starts and he has an ERA of 6.89 over his last 3 starts. The Angels are 27-12 in their last 39 games against a lefty starter and I look for them to hit Romero hard here Sunday afternoon. Take the L.A. Angels.

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 6:55 am
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Cajun Sports
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Arizona D-Backs vs. Houston Astros
Play: Houston Astros
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The Diamondbacks and Astros faceoff in the third and final game of this series at Minute Maid Park on Sunday afternoon with Houston holding a 2-0 series lead and looking for the sweep. Arizona’s bats have been held silent for the most part in this series with Oswalt going 7 innings on Friday in the 1-0 win giving up 3 hits and no runs and then Moehler pitching 5.2 innings giving up 6 hits with 3 strikeouts and 2 earned runs in a 4-2 win on Saturday. This should come as no surprise as the Diamondbacks are ranked 28 in hitting with a batting average of .251 averaging 4.4 runs per game with OPS of .742. Arizona will send right-hander Jon Garland to the bump with his 6-11 record and ERA of 4.42 on the season, the D-backs are 9-16 in games he starts. He is 3-6 on the highway with an ERA of 3.20 and Arizona is 4-9 behind him in all road starts this season. Over his last three outings he has posted a record of 0-1 with an ERA of 5.71 while Arizona has gone 0-3 in those contests. The Diamondbacks are 26-35 (-5.8) on the road this season and 42-46 (-4.2) when facing right-handed starters. Arizona is 17-35 when installed as a road underdog, 9-23 when a road dog of +110 to +150 and 0-8 their last 8 road games overall. The Diamondbacks are 3-14 in Garlands last 17 starts overall and 1-9 when he takes the bump on the road. Houston is 31-14 their last 45 games versus teams with a losing record and 35-17 when playing game three of a series. They will send Bud Norris to the hill with his 3-1 record and ERA of 4.05 on the season. Over his last three outings he is 2-1 with an ERA of 5.94. The Astros are 5-2 (+2.4) over their last 7 games and average 4.2 runs per game when playing at Minute Maid Park with a batting average of .271 on the year. With significant fundamental, situational and technical support we will back the host as they get the sweep over the Arizona Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon at Minute Maid Park.
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Graded Selection: 2* Houston Astros 4 Arizona Diamondbacks 3

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 6:55 am
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Marc Lawrence
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Florida Marlins at Atlanta Braves
Prediction: Florida Marlins
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The Marlins close out their 3-game visit to Atlanta when they send Ricky Nolasco to the hill at Turner Field Sunday afternoon. Nolasco has been super-surging since his recall from New Orleans, especially of late as he's 5-1 in his last 6 team starts with 9 walks and 45 strikeouts. He's also 3-0 his last 3 way starts with 5 walks and 27 strikeouts. With that, look for Nolasco to improve to 7-1 in his last 8 tries during the month of August here today.

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 6:56 am
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Rob Vinciletti
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Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Seattle Mariners
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Seattle is 16-5 as a road favorite in this range.Today they have their ace on the mound.Felix Hernandez takes to the hill today in Cleveland knowing that in his road starts this year the Mariners have cashed 11 of 14 times and he has a 1.92 road era.Over his last 3 starts his era is just 1.80.He has won his last 3 starts vs the Tribe and has allowed just 4 runs in his last 2 starts in Cleveland.The Mariners have won 4 of 6 times here in Cleveland.Last night the Mariners lost a tough one run game to the Indians.We note that the Indians have not played well off a win this year winning around 30% in the following game.Cleveland starter Fausto Carmona has a 3-6 home record with a 4.82 era.Look for Seattle to bounce back here on Sunday.

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 6:58 am
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MTi Sports
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Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers
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The Cubs are 0-12 on the road after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent for a net profit of $1320 when playing against. The Dodgers are 24-4 as a home 140+ favorite after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent as a favorite. Consider laying the price.
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Play on: LA Dodgers

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 9:43 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS
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Texas Rangers at Tampa Bay Rays
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Might as well stick with what works on Sunday as the Rays look to sweep the Rangers. David Price is a totally different pitcher at home, compared to on the road, posting a 2.82 ERA in eight starts at Tropicana Field this season. Texas has simply not had much success in this park lately, losing seven of their last eight games here, and they are just 13-31 on the road vs. lefties since the start of last season. Let's not forget that TB is 36-11 in home day games.
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Play on: Tampa Bay

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 9:43 am
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LT Profits
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Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

Pedro Martinez has pitched decently since being recalled by the Philadelphia Phillies, and he will have added incentive here facing a New York Mets team that allowed him to get away. Meanwhile, Oliver Perez has turned his season around nicely, so look for an Under thus afternoon.
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Pedro is 1-0 while allowing a total if four runs in eight innings in to starts in a Phillies uniform. He has his last start shortened by a long rain delay, but Martinez has had good velocity since being recalled by the Phillies, and we expect him to have his best start yet today, given the emotions of facing the Mets. It is also nice to know then when Pedro does need relief, the Philadelphia bullpen has been spectacular over the last 10 games posting a 0.63 ERA!

Perez has always been a head case, but he has looked like a different pitcher since being called back up from the minors. He has allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts since the recall, and he allowed only four runs in each of the other two starts. Also, do not forget that the Phillies have never hit Perez well, as he has allowed one run or less in four of his last five career starts against them with three scoreless outings.
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The Under is 7-2 in the last nine Pillies games overall and we look for more of the same today.

Pick: Phillies/Mets Under 9.5

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 9:44 am
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Tom Freese
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
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Detroit starter Rick Porcello has allowed 5 runs total in his last 4 starts. Detroit is 8-0 after scoring 2 or less runs in their last game. The Tigers are 7-3 their last 10 games vs. losing teams they are 13-5 in the last 18 starts made by Porcello. Oakland is 8-20 off a win and they are 2-5 their last 7 games vs. righty starters. Brett Tomko gets the ball for the A's. He will have his hands full with the Tigers potent lineup. PLAY ON DETROIT -

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 9:45 am
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Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres +160
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This play fades Smoltz, who is being severely overvalued when you consider how poorly he's pitched this season. He's been lit up over his last 3 starts, 11.93 ERA and 2.163 WHIP. I can't see his first start with a new team being smooth sailing. Padres are a nice value play in the home dog role this afternoon.

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 9:46 am
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Drew Gordon

Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH -140

Now on a 44-34 roll with the plays I'm giving away, including the Athletics over the Tigers 3-2 Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Cincinnati/Pittsburgh match up...
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The two bottom-feeders of the NL Central meet in the series finale today, but despite their nearly identical records, its very clear which team is focused and which is tail-spinning. Look for the Pirates to break out the brooms Sunday at PNC Park and here's why:

First, I'm liking this match up for newly acquired Kevin Hart, who not only got his first win with the Bucs in his last start, but also has beaten this Reds team already once this season. Hart allowed just 1 run on 5 hits over 6 solid innings back on July 25th as a member of the Cubs, and with the Reds reeling, expect more of the same today. Note, the Pirates righty also boasts a solid 3-1 record and 2.70 ERA in day games!
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Then of course there's the Reds Homer Bailey, who at one point in the season showed promise, but has fallen apart over his L7 starts, allowing a whopping 5 runs or more in 5 of those 7 outings! He's also been a disaster on the road, going 1-2 with an astronomical 8.24 ERA away this season! And don't think its going to get any easier against a red-hot Pittsburgh offense this afternoon!

Finally, speaking of the Pirates recent surge at the plate, we're talking about a club that's scored 34 runs over their 5 game winning streak! Pirates have been rock-solid against rigthies at home all season, averaging 4.8 runs per game, while batting .283 in the process. In the end, Bailey is a gas can just waiting to be lit, and I say the Pirates oblige, marking their 6th straight win Sunday.
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Take Pittsburgh behind Hart over Cincinnati and Bailey in this MLB match up.

3♦ PITTSBURGH

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 10:00 am
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Michael Cannon

Cincinnati at PITTSBURGH -135

Take the Pirates for the home win today over the Reds.
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The Bucs are gunning for their second consecutive series sweep for the first time since 2004. That’s right, you read that correctly. The Pirates are actually on a respectable winning streak.

Normally I wouldn’t touch a team like the Pirates at this price, but Cincinnati has been so bad this is actually a bargain for the surging Buccos. The Reds are a major league-worst 7-24 since July 20.

They don’t figure to turn it around with Homer Bailey on the mound today.
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The right-hander is 2-4 with a 7.53 ERA on the year and the Reds have lost eight of his 11 starts.

Take the Pirates as they grab the home win and second consecutive series sweep.

3♦ PITTSBURGH

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 10:01 am
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Karl Garrett

LA Angels +110 at TORONTO
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G-Man with a Saturday comp play winner on the Angels, and guess what? I am coming right back on Sunday with another freebie on the Halos, as I just don't understand why a 1st place team that sports a 74-47 record for the year is a small dog to a team that is now 9 games under .500?!?!?!?

The luster has worn off of Toronto starter Ricky Romero, as his last 3 starts show an 0-2 mark with 10 runs allowed in just under 16 innings of work.

Could be the youngster is now hitting the wall during the long grind of the MLB season.
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Trevor Bell is making just his 3rd start of the season, and while he has lasted a grand total of 10 innings, and has allowed 7 runs, he is 1-0, and the Angels are 2-0 in his starts.

It helps that Bell's teammates can tear the cover off the ball, and the fact the Angels are now 23-8 their last 31 in the road, and 25-10 their last 35 Sunday contests bodes well for the Angels to leave Canada with another series win.
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Get on this one as soon as you can, as the G-Man has a feeling the price on this game is going to swing in favor of the visitors right quick.

4♦ LA ANGELS

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 10:01 am
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Dominic Fazzini

L.A. Angels at TORONTO -125

The Phillies' 4-1 run-line win over the Mets on Saturday gave me 10 victories in my last 14 complimentary selections, including three straight! I'm ready to keep a good thing going today!
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The Angels are a major league-best 27-12 against left-handers, 26-8 in day games and an AL-best 38-25 on the road. So why the hell am I taking the Blue Jays in this one?

Well, Los Angeles has struggled for the last 20 years in Toronto, finishing above .500 just three times there since 1990. If the Angels win today, it will be the first time they posted winning records in Toronto in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1988 and 1989.
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And who are the Angels entrusting to accomplish this major feat today? Trevor Bell (1-0, 5.91 ERA), who is making his third major league appearance and started the season in Double A.

The 22-year-old right-hander allowed three runs and nine hits in 5 1/3 innings Tuesday at Cleveland to earn his first major league victory.

Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.95) is coming off his worst outing of the season, allowing six runs (five earned) and eight hits in 3 2/3 innings Tuesday against Boston.

The rookie southpaw, however, is 6-3 with a 4.17 ERA in 10 starts at home this season.
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Los Angeles is playing the final game of its 10-game road trip, having gone 6-3 to this point. With a long trip home awaiting the team and the inexperienced Bell trying to win in a city in which the Angels have had little success, I don't see Los Angeles having much success in this one. Take the Blue Jays today.

2♦ TORONTO

 
Posted : August 23, 2009 10:02 am
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