Jeff Benton
Texas +145 at TAMPA BAY
Bad call on the Bills in Saturday’s NFL preseason action ended my three-day free-play winning streak. I’ll get back on track Sunday by taking a shot with the underdog Rangers in their series finale at Tampa Bay.
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It’s easy to understand why Texas is catching such a big price (pardon the pun) today: It is facing Rays rookie phenom David Price, and the young lefty has been a totally different pitcher at home (6-1, 2.82 ERA) than on the road (0-4, 8.07 ERA). But here’s the thing: You could say the exact opposite about Rangers starter Scott Feldman. Feldman is 8-1 with a 3.50 ERA on the road (with Texas going 9-1 in his 10 road starts) as opposed to 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA at home (where the Rangers are just 7-7 behind the right-hander).
Feldman dominated Tampa Bay back on July 5, giving up two runs (one earned) in six innings en route to a 5-2 win. He also tamed the powerful Rays exactly 13 months earlier, again allowing two runs (both earned) in seven innings (though Texas fell 5-4). That means Feldman has a 2.08 ERA in his two career starts against Crawford, Longoria, Pena, et. al. Conversely, one day before Feldman shut down the Rays last month, the Rangers had a Fourth of July explosion against Price, pounding out six runs in just 1 1/3 innings, eventually winning 12-4.
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Finally, with Feldman pitching, Texas is on impressive runs of 8-3 overall, 10-1 on the road since last year, 6-1 when he’s an underdog and 6-0 as a road pup. Add it up and even though they’re facing Price, the Rangers with Feldman still offer tremendous value in this one.
4♦ TEXAS
Chris Jordan
Arizona at HOUSTON -140
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Off the comp win with Washington in preseason football, I am back on the diamond and looking at the Astros minus the money tonight over struggling Arizona.
Arizona is playing absolute horrible baseball right now, having lost seven straight – six in a row during this road trip – and has the unfortunate task of taking on a Houston team that has won four straight. Stellar pitching and timely hitting has been the threshold for the Astros’ current run. And with Jon Garland toeing the slab tonight, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Astros throw double digits on the board.
Arizona’s right-handed hurler is 0-1 in his last three starts – all games the Snakes lost – and he’s toting a 5.71 ERA in those games. This season, he’s 6-11 in 25 starts, in which the Diamondbacks are 9-16.
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The Snakes are playing their seventh straight road game, and will be ready to get this series over with; problem is, they head to San Francisco next, so I’m just guessing they’ll be ready to get back to division play, and hope that some familiarity will get them back to winning.
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Take the Astros tonight.
2♦ ASTROS
Bobby Maxwell
San Francisco -105 at COLORADO
Gave out a FREE winner on Saturday as the Dodgers shut down the Cubs and I'll do it again today, playing the Giants in Colorado against the Rockies.
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Who would have thought after the first month of the season, these two teams would turn around their seasons and now be battling for the wild-card playoff spot? They are and these games are huge, so today I'm going with the best pitcher in the National League in the Giants' Tiim Lincecum (12-3, 2.37 ERA).
San Francisco has won two in a row and four of five with Lincecum on the hill, including Tuesday's 8-5 win in Cincinnati. The reigning Cy Young award winner is 5-2 on the road this season with a 2.82 ERA. The guy knows how to step up in big situations and today he'll show that against the Rockies.
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This is Lincecum's first start against Colorado this season after an up-and-down four outings against them a year ago. In his first two starts he gave up just one run in 14.2 innings, but in the last two he allowed 11 runs in 9.1 innings of work.
Colorado is going with Ubaldo Jimenez (11-9, 3.41) who is just 1-4 in his last five Sunday starts. He's 2-2 in seven career starts against San Francisco and 6-4 at home this season. The Rockies are just 2-5 when he is the underdog.
The Giants are on positive runs of 33-16 when they are the favorite, 22-8 when Lincecum gets a full four days off, 7-3 when he faces a winning team and 5-1 when he goes against N.L. West opposition.
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Giving the pitching edge to Lincecum and the Giants and looking for them to make it two of three over the Rockies in this one. Play San Francisco.
2♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Sports Gambling Hotline
St. Louis at SAN DIEGO +160
Saturday comp play winner on the Yankees-Red Sox OVER the total. Now 22-9-1 the last 32 days with our comp plays.
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Sure John Smoltz is a Hall of Fame candidate, but at this point in his career, we are hard-pressed to lay this kind of lumber on the road with Smoltzie.
Afterall, Smoltz' short tenure with Boston did not go so well, as his last 4 starts for the Red Sox show no less than 5 runs allowed in any of those starts, and not surprisingly losses in 3 of those 4 efforts.
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True, Cesar Carillo is making just his third big league start, but Carillo is coming off 6 innings, of 3 run ball in a home win over the Cubs. That is the type of confidence-boosting win that leads us to believe Carillo can keep the Padres in this game today against the batting practice arm of John Smoltz.
This is the end of a 7-game road swing for the Redbirds who own a cushy lead in the NL Central, and we feel this is the perfect spot to grab the big underdog, and look for a nice payday come the end of 9 innings.
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Play on the Good Fathers.
1♦ SAN DIEGO
Andre Gomes
San Antonio Silver Stars @ Detroit Shock
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Detroit defeated Chicago last night on the road but they didn't convince me in any circumstances and I expect them to have a letdown against San Antonio. Detroit took advantage from the fact that Sky's best player Sylvia Fowles didn't play (by the way Chicago is 0-7 SU without her) and the Sky scored only 28 points in the paint. However veteran K. Smith played 37 minutes, veteran forward Taj McWilliams-Franklin played 34 minutes and Deanna Nolan did not play the entire fourth quarter due to a minor injury...we are talking about a veteran team who will play a back to back game today.
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Meanwhile this game is more than a simple ballgame for San Antonio. The Stars are coming from consecutive losses against Atlanta and Los Angeles and last game they had a lot of opportunities to beat the Sparks but they failed to convert so they are fired up for today but more important than that this is a huge revenge game for San Antonio. These two teams are yet to face in this season but last season Detroit swept San Antonio in the WNBA finals and the entire Stars' core is intact this season and surely they have the revenge word in their minds. This is a powerful spot for San Antonio that we cannot pass and that's why I'm taking them in here.
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Single Dime Play on San Antonio Silver Stars ML
Larry Ness
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HOU (-150) vs ARI
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Jon Garland won 18 games for the White Sox back in 2005, helping Chicago to a World series title. He followed that season by going 18-7 in 2006 but those "glory days" are long gone. He went 10-13 for Chicago in 2007 and then left for the Angels. He did go 14-8 for LA in 2008 but his 4.90 ERA and 237 hits allowed in 196.2 innings were not what the Angels had hoped for. He found himself in Arizona this year and his 6-11 mark in 25 starts (4.42 ERA) only tells part of the story. The D'backs not only enter today's game with Houston having lost seven straight games (have been outscored 48-14) and nine straight on the road, but the D'backs have lost 14 of Garland's last 17 starts! The Astros will counter with rookie Bud Norris, who allowed a season-high five ERs in 5.2 innings in a 6-2 loss to Florida this past Tuesday. However, it was his first loss (he's 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA in starts four career starts) and has been a solid addition to a starting rotation which hasn't gotten very much help from anyone other than Wandy Rodriguez and Roy Oswalt. After a slow start at Minute Maid Park, the Astros are 26-14 (.650) over their last 40 home games. Why shouldn't they sweep the struggling D'backs with Garland on the mound? Take Houston.
Scott Rickenbach
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Kansas City vs Minnesota
Play Under
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We’ve used the over in each of the first two games of this series and, though we went 1-1 we truly should have gone 2-0 as wasted opportunities cost us in Friday’s game. However, the teams overall have not disappointed as they combined for 46 hits and 24 runs on Friday and Saturday. Many times, after the first two games of a three-game series are a little “nuts” you will see things slow down in the finale. That’s precisely what we expect here.
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While Brian Bannister’s ERA over his last three starts is ugly, this is still a guy who is only getting hit at a .259 clip in his home games this season. Also, Bannister has been much better in day games than he’s been at night. Note that , under the sun, Bannister is an impressive 5-2 this season with a sparkling 2.11 ERA and a miniscule .222 BAA. Also, while Bannister has struggled indoors (including at the Metrodome in Minnesota) he has pitched very well outdoors (like when he faced the Twins at Kauffman Stadium). Bannister has a 3.70 ERA outdoors with a .254 BAA and he can once again hold the Twins bats “in check” here.
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Carl Pavano gets the start for the Twins here. Even though Pavano has allowed five earned runs in each of his last two starts, he’s truly been victimized by timely big hits! Overall, Pavano has given up just 23 hits in his last 26 innings and before two unusual outings in his last two starts, the Twins right-hander had provided a quality outing in five of his last seven starts! Look for Pavano to get back on track here. He’s been hit 41 points lower in day games than at night and he’s held lefties 40 points lower than righties. The latter of which is a key against the Royals. Pavano has given up some runs at Kauffman Stadium this season but note that, in his two starts there, he did strike out 16 in 12 innings of work and we look for Pavano’s offerings to miss a lot of wood in this afternoon’s game as well. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Kansas City on Sunday afternoon.
Jr Tips
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Yankees t Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees traded blowout victories to start their weekend series at Fenway Park but Sunday night's pitching matchup will have each teams Aces, CC Sabathia for the Yanks and Josh Beckett for the sox. The Yankees (77-46) are 26-9 since the All-Star break and continued their hot play with a 20-11 victory Friday night, but the Red Sox (70-52) turned things around with a 14-1 win Saturday.The Red Sox have pounded out 25 runs and 27 hits in two games to start a 10-game homestand, and Kevin Youkilis homered twice to lead the charge Saturday as Boston set a team record with their eighth consecutive multihomer game.Boston's offense will face Sabathia (14-7, 3.58 ERA) who is looking to win his fifth consecutive start. He lost his initial outing in this rivalry June 11th at Fenway but rebounded on Aug. 8th against the Sox allowing two hits and striking out nine in 7 2/3 innings of a 5-0 win.Beckett (14-4, 3.38) turned in a similar effort against the Yankees the previous night, but it was wasted in the Red Sox's 2-0, 15-inning loss. In his last two starts against New York, Beckett has thrown 13 shutout innings, allowing only five hits and He's looking to rebound from his worst start in more than two months, as he gave up seven runs and three homers at Toronto on Tuesday, although the Red Sox won 10-9. He had been 7-1 with a 1.93 ERA in his previous 10 outings.Sabathia, meanwhile, has been dominant in his last three starts, giving up three runs and 10 hits in 23 2/3 innings with 26 strikeouts.The last time Beckett and Sabathia started against each other was Game 5 of the 2007 AL championship series. Sabathia struggled while Beckett struck out 11 in eight dominant innings of a 7-1 win.This a a huge Sunday Night game in which both teams know the baseball world is watching. Boston's offense has been on a tear putting up multi homeruns in eight straight games. Except for the last game, Beckett has been lights out on the mouind and he always pitches well in big games. The excitment at Fennway will keep the Red Sox on their hot streak at the plate. Look for the Sox to get to Sabathia tonight as you wouldn"t want to bet against the Sox in this big game tonight at home, especially when they are the team behind in the playoff race.
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TAKE BOSTON
DAVE PRICE
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -135
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The Rays have won 6 of 7 and I like them to complete the sweep of Texas today behind rookie standout Dave Price. The Rays are 7-1 in Price's home starts this season, during which he has posted a 2.82 ERA. Also, Texas is 13-31 against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average score of 3.7 to 5.4. Feldman has been strong for the Rangers this season, but he brings in an ERA of 5.09 and a WHIP of 1.698 over his last 3 starts. Plus, Tampa Bay has been a tough place to play for Texas as the Rangers are just 1-7 in Tampa Bay over the last 3 seasons.
ATS Consultants
New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox UNDER 9
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GREAT pitching matchup tonight as the Yankees and Red Sox close out their series. It’ll be a battle of Cy Young contenders as Josh Beckett opposes CC Sabathia.
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Sabathia (14-7, 3.58) has been terrific most of the year, and just the ace the Yankees need to put them over the top. He’s 4-1 with a 3.22 ERA in his last 5 starts, and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA vs. The BoSox this season.
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Beckett (14-4, 3.38) remains the ace of the Sox staff, and is trying to get the Red Sox into the playoffs. They’re in a dogfight for the Wild Card as they lead the Rangers and Rays by a few games. It’s not likely that they can catch the Yankees in the AL East, but they certainly won’t go down without a fight. Beckett is 3-0 with a 3.24 ERA in his last 5 starts. He’s also 2-0 with a 4-13 ERA vs. the Yankees this year.
John Ryan
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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Washington as the host Milwaukee set to start 1:35 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 52-24 making 29.4 units since 2003. Play on home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 revenging 2 straight home losses versus opponent starting a pitcher who gave up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings. Despite their losing history, the Nats do have some situations where they truly excel and play well. Note that Washington is a solid 20-9 (+13.1 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a marginal losing team sporting a win percentage of 46% to 49% over the last 3 seasons. Milwaukee in a poor role noting they are 17-27 (-13.6 Units) against the money line after 2 straight games without giving up a stolen base this season; 5-14 (-10.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season. Take the Nationals.
Tom Stryker
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Seattle Mariners -1.5
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Off yesterday's 4-3 loss at Cleveland, I'm going to back Seattle with listed pitcher Felix Hernandez on Sunday. The road team has cashed 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two American League foes and Felix should dominate this struggling Indians bunch.
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In case you haven't noticed, Hernandez has been a monster in his last four starts. Facing Detroit, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Texas (four team that can flat out hit the ball), No. 34 was touched for only six earned runs and 22 hits in 27.0 innings of work. That breaks down to a stellar 2.00 ERA! Foreign soil has been kind to Felix too. As a guest, Hernandez has been nicked for only 21 earned runs and 74 hits in 98.2 frames. That's good enough for an impressive 8-1 record and a phenomenal 1.92 ERA.
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Cleveland will counter with struggling right hander Fausto Carmona. In his last two starts against the Angels and Rangers, Carmona lost both allowing five earned runs and 21 hits in 17.0 innings. Fausto walked five and fanned only seven. At home this season, No. 55 has failed to scoop up a win. Through 46.2 frames, Carmona owns a dismal 0-5 record and an elevated 4.82 ERA! With Fausto on the bump, the Tribe has dropped eight of their last nine facing teams from the AL West.
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Coming off a win, Cleveland has slipped in 37 of its last 54 games. To make matters worse, Seattle has been at its best as a favorite cashing 21 of its last 29 games and the Mariners have bounced back well off a loss nailing eight of their last 10. Take Seattle with listed pitcher Fernandez.
DAVE MALINSKY
Florida Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Florida Marlins
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You can not get a much more even matchup than two teams that are tied in the standings, especially with little home/away disparity (the Marlins have posted a winning record on the road this season), and that makes this one vastly over-priced for the Ricky Nolasco/Derek Lowe matchup.
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We made a sin of omission in not staying with our Pro-Nolasco sentiments in his last outing, as he rebounded from an off game to throttle the Astros on the road over nine innings, and for the second season in a row he has been among the best N.L. pitchers after the All Star break. If we run it back 14 starts we find dominating counts of 95 strikeouts vs. only 64 hits and 14 walks, but because of his early-season struggles the pitching forms can only show a 9-8/5.22, a major ingredient in the mix that creates this price.
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Meanwhile Lowe is not only off of one of his worst outings since becoming a Brave in that dismal loss against the Mets, but has had particular problems against the Marlins this season, allowing 10 runs on 14 hits and eight walks over 10 innings through two starts. And the fact that Florida has upgraded Jorge Cantu to probable means a lot in this matchup – while his presence in the lineup may not cause a trickle in the marketplace, he is 7-8 lifetime against Lowe, with four doubles and a home run. They will slot him right behind Hanley Ramirez in the lineup, and with Ramirez rocking Lowe to a .526 over 19 career at-bats (10 hits, with five doubles), as well as also drawing four walks, it means the kind of matchup headaches that further make this line too high.
Jimmy Moore
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Detroit @ Oakland
Pick: Detroit -140
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Porcello has been fantastic in his last few appearances and the Tigers have been dynamite against the AL west this season. Look for that to continue on Sunday afternoon in Oakland.
EZWINNERS
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Seattle Mariners @ Cleveland Indians
Play: Seattle Mariners -145
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Cleveland's starting pitcher Fausto Carmona hasn't pitched very well since his 19 win season in 2007. Carmona's problem is his lack of control. He is walking way too many batters and has not been striking out very many batters. Carmona is a sinker ball pitcher that is having trouble keeping the ball down. That is never a good thing and that is why he is getting hit so hard and has a 2-8 record with a 6.31 ERA this season. Carmona doesn't have much margin for error in this game against the Mariners with their ace Felix Hernandez on the mound. Hernandez is 3-1 lifetime against the Indians including 1-0 this season when hit pitched eight strong inning and allowed only two earned runs while striking out eight Cleveland batters. Hernandez is in great form right now and has given up only one run over his last 14 innings and has 19 strikeouts over that span. The Mariners are 8-1 in Hernandez's last nine road starts and the Indians are 1-8 in Carmona's last nine starts against the American League West. Play on Seattle.