SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL PRESEASON
Chicago (1-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (0-2, 1-1 ATS)
New Bears QB Jay Cutler didn’t have to wait long to get a shot at his old team as Chicago travels to Invesco Field to square off against the Broncos and rookie coach Josh McDaniels, the man who traded Cutler in the offseason.
In getting dealt to Chicago, Cutler ended up swapping places with former Bears starting QB Kyle Orton, who makes his debut in front of the home fans in Denver after a tumultuous first two preseason games that has seen him throw for 271 yards, but also toss four INTs and just one TD. Last week, Orton had one TD and one pick in the Broncos’ 27-13 loss in Seattle as a three-point ‘dog.
Orton and the rest of the Broncos starters will play the first three quarters tonight, with third-stringer Tom Brandstater leading the offense in the final quarter. No. 2 QB Chris Simms, who has been Denver’s most consistent passer in camp, will not suit up because of an ankle injury. In addition to Simms, the Broncos will be without the services of rookie RB Knowshon Moreno tonight (knee), WR Brandon Lloyd (undisclosed injury) or WR Brandon Marshall (team suspension).
The Bears scored a 17-3 home win over the Giants a week ago, cashing as three-point favorites. Coach Lovie Smith plans to play his starters, including Cutler, into the third quarter. Cutler has thrown for 185 yards in the first two preseason games, with one TD and one INT. Backup QB and second-year pro Caleb Hanie is likely to replace Cutler and play the rest of the game, leaving veteran reserve Brett Basanez as the odd man out. WR Devon Hester is slated to return punts tonight, his first duties on special teams this August.
Chicago is just 6-5 SU and ATS on the highway the last five-plus preseasons and it is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in Week 3 of the preseason the last six years, including 0-3 ATS in the past three summers.
The Broncos are 6-2 SU but just 4-4 ATS in their last eight preseason home games and just 1-4 SU and ATS in its last four exhibition contests overall.
The over is 7-3 in Chicago’s last 10 preseason contests and 4-2 in Denver’s last six in August.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta (68-61) at Philadelphia (74-53)
The top two teams in the National League East wrap up a three-game set at Citizens Park when the Braves send right-hander Jair Jurrjens (10-8, 2.91 ERA) to the mound opposite Phillies’ righty Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.88).
After dropping Friday’s contest 4-2, Atlanta’s bats came alive Saturday and scored a 9-1 win in a rain-shortened, eight-inning contest. The Braves have beaten Philadelphia seven of the last 10 meetings, but still trail the Phillies by seven games. Atlanta has won six of their last eight on the highway and five straight as an underdog. Meanwhile, despite Saturday’s setback, Philadelphia is still on runs of 35-17 overall, 20-8 at homn, 72-33 on Sundays, 29-13 as a favorite and 19-8 as a home favorite.
Jurrjens is 1-0 in his last three games with a 2.18 ERA, but the Braves are just 1-2 in those three starts. On Tuesday, he allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings to the Padres but Atlanta lost 2-1. In three starts against the Phillies this season, Jurrjens has allowed three runs (two earned) in 19 2/3 innings as Atlanta is 2-1 in the three outings. Finally, the Braves are 7-3 in Jurrjens’ last 10 starts against N.L. East foes and 4-1 in his last five when he gets four full days off.
Blanton gave up three runs in six innings in Pittsburgh on Tuesday, losing 6-4, but the veteran hruler hasn’t allowed the opposition more than three runs in any of his last 11 starts. He’s faced the Braves four times this season, including Aug. 14 when he held them to two runs (one earned) in seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Philadelphia is 12-5 in Blanton’s last 17 starts against division rivals, 9-3 in his last 12 as a favorite and 7-0 in his last seven when he works on Sundays.
Atlanta has stayed under the total in seven of Jurrjens’ last 10 starts as a ‘dog and six of his last eight when he faces a winning team on the road. As a team, the Braves have topped the total in 18 of 25 Sunday games and eight of 11 roadies. With Blanton on the hill, the Phils are on “under” runs of 10-4-2 overall, 7-3 at home and 4-0-1 against the N.L. East. Additionally, Philadelphia has stayed low in 20 of 30 against the N.L. East, 12 of 17 in the third game of a series and 19 of 27 against right-handers.
Finally, the “under” is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philly and 5-0 in the last six clashes overall, with last night’s rain-shortened contest ending up as a “no play” for the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
Colorado (72-58) at San Francisco (71-59)
The Giants will try to make it a three-game sweep and draw even in the race for the N.L. wild-card race when they send All-Star Matt Cain (12-4, 2.39 ERA) to the mound at AT&T Park against the Rockies’ Jason Hammel (8-8, 4.50).
San Francisco held on for a 5-3 win Saturday night, giving up three runs in the ninth before getting the final out. The Giants trail the Rockies by one game in the wild-card standings and trail the Dodgers by 5½ in the N.L. West standings.
Colorado is just 1-8 in its last nine as an underdog and 5-12 after losing the first two games of a series, but it is 7-1 in its last eight on Sunday. Meanwhile, San Francisco is on runs of 40-19 at home, 37-17 as a favorite and 42-20 at home against right-handers. Also, these teams have split 14 meetings this season.
Hammel has been solid in his last two outings, allowing a combined three runs in 14 innings in victories over the Nationals on Aug. 20 and Dodgers on Tuesday. He’s seen the Giants twice this season but didn’t get any offensive support in either outing. He blanked San Francisco for six innings on May 3 but the Rockies lost 1-0, then he gave up three runs in six innings on July 24 in a 3-1 Colorado loss. With Hammel on the hill, the Rockies are on runs of 13-6 overall and 4-0 on Sundays, but just 1-4 when he’s a road ‘dog.
Cain, who has a 2.01 ERA in his last three starts despite not registering a decision, is 6-2 with a 2.28 ERA in front of the home fans this season. Against Arizona on Tuesday he gave up two runs (one earned) on four hits in seven innings of a 5-4 victory. Cain has been dominant in two victories over Colorado this season, allowing a combined one run in 13 innings. With Cain on the hill, San Francisco is on runs of 16-5 at home, 9-1 as a home chalk, 11-3 when he’s a favorite and 5-0 against the N.L. West.
When Hammel pitches, the Rockies are on “under” runs of 7-1-1 in the third game of a series and 4-0 against N.L. West teams, while as a team, Colorado has stayed under the total in four of five overall, four of five on the road, six of seven against right-handed starters and four of five against N.L. West teams. The Giants’ are on “under” streaks of 7-2 with Cain starting, 6-1 when he’s a favorite and 6-1 against winning teams, while as a team San Francisco has stayed under the total in 15 of 21 as a favorite and five of six on Sundays.
Finally, the under is on streaks of 4-0 when Cain starts at home against Colorado and 5-1 when these two meet in Northern California.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Hentai Sports
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Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds
Prediction : Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
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Kershaw goes for the LAD today and even though he has not received a win his last 7 starts he still has maintained a great ERA of under 3 and opponent BA of under .250 and only 1 HR over that time period. In almost every start the LAD did not produce runs to back his good pitching performance. But yesterday saw the LAD get 10 runs against the CIN Reds and will continue into Sunday. Today they will try and bang out some runs verse Reds starter Arroyo. He has been great only allowing 2 runs in almost 26 innings. Sounds great until you look at who they were against WASH, SFG, and MIL none of which have been scoring lately. The best lineup in baseball (LAD) will score early and often and get to Arroyo early. When Arroyo gets hit up early usually he gives up 5 plus runs. The Reds have continued to struggle at plate only averaging 2.5 runs per game since all star break.
EZWINNERS
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Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins -130
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The Texas Rangers starting pitcher Kevin Millwood is only 1-1 in his last three starts with and ERA of almost six and Minnesota has really had his number in his career. In eleven career starts, Kevin Millwood is 0-7 with an ERA of 6.18 against the Twins. This includes one start this season when he took the loss after allowing seven hits and five earned runs in only 5 and 2/3 innings. The Twins starting pitcher Scott Baker has won both of his starts this season against Texas and Baker is really at the top of his game right now. In his last three starts, Baker is 3-0 with an ERA of only 2.11 with sixteen strikeouts and only three walks. The Twins are 11-1 in Scott Bakers last twelve starts as a favorite and the Rangers are only 3-10 in their last thirteen games at the Metrodome. Play on Minnesota.
Vernon Croy
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Houston Astros vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Under 7.5
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I look for a pitchers dual here Sunday afternoon with Wandy Rodriguez (12-8, 2.82 ERA) and Dan Haren (12-8, 2.73 ERA) on the mound. Rodriguez has allowed just 7 hits and 1 earned run over his last 2 starts while lasting an average of 7.5 innings per start and I look for him to have another solid start Sunday afternoon. Haren has pitched solid at home this season with an ERA of just 2.07 over 12 starts. Haren owned the Astros allowing just 2 hits and 1 earned run in his only start against them this season over 9 innings. The Over/Under is 1-6 for the Astros in their last 7 games as an underdog and the Astros are hitting just .235 as a team over their last 7 games. The Diamondbacks are hitting just .232 against left hand starters this season and I look for them to struggle against Rodriguez Sunday afternoon. Take Under.
Steve Merril
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Texas Rangers vs. Minnesota Twins
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota has won six of eight and eight of their last 11 games and will wrap up a home series with the Rangers on Sunday. Scott Baker has been money as of late going 3-0 with a 2.11 ERA in his last three starts, giving up just five runs in 21.3 innings pitched. One of those three wins was a 5-4 victory in Texas over the Rangers beating Kevin Millwood on August 19th. Baker has beaten the Rangers twice this year, also winning July 18th in Arlington giving up one run and six hits in eight innings of work. Texas hits just .235 against him with Michael Young (4-16), Hank Blalock (1-10), David Murphy (1-10), Josh Hamilton (2-9), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (0-5), Chris Davis (0-3) and Brandon Boggs (0-3) all struggling against Baker. Kevin Millwood is 1-1 with a 5.82 ERA in his last three starts giving up 11 runs and 17 hits in 17 innings pitched. Millwood has yet to beat the Twins in his career, going 0-7 with a 6.18 ERA and a WHIP of 1.803. As mentioned above, Millwood lost to the Twins in Arlington on the 19th, giving up five runs and seven hits in 5.7 innings pitched. Minnesota hits .333 against Millwood with Orlando Cabrera (28-89), Joe Mauer (9-27), Michael Cuddyer (9-21), Nick Punto (9-19), Justin Morneau (6-16), Jason Kubel (4-13), Delmon Young (3-9), Carlos Gomez (3-9), Brendan Harris (4-8) and Denard Span (2-6) all smacking Millwood around. The Twins are 36-29 at home where they average 5.3 runs per game and bat .274 as a team this season.
Cajun Sports
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Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Play: Under 7.5
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The San Francisco Giants will play host to the Colorado Rockies on Sunday afternoon for Game Three of their three-game weekend set leading the series 2-0 after winning 5 to 3 on Saturday. Our interest in this game is on the total, we know that 6 of 6 played in San Francisco in this series have fallen below the posted total including Saturday’s game which had a total of 8.5. Over the last three seasons this series has seen 27 of 47 go under the posted total and 8 of 13 this year overall. When these two teams have gotten together on the West Coast 15 of 21 games have fallen below the posted total including all five this season. Colorado will send Jason Hammel to the bump with his 6-4 record and an ERA of 3.04 on the road this season. Hammels is 4-0 under his last four versus teams from the NL West, 5-1-1 under as an underdog of -110 to -150 and 5-1-1 under following a quality start in his last outing. The Rockies are 14-6-1 under when playing in Game Three of a series, 19-7-2 under on the road facing a team with a home winning percentage of .600 or better and 16-5-2 under as an underdog in this price range. San Francisco will counter with Matt Cain who is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.28 at home. Cain is 6-0 under when starting in Game Three of a series, 10-2 under following a quality start in this last outing and 12-4 under when the total for the game is 7 to 8.5. San Francisco is ranked 2 in pitching with an ERA of 3.54 and opponents are batting .237 against them this season. Colorado is ranked 10 in pitching with an ERA of 4.21 with opponents batting .263 against them. Neither team is in the Top 10 in hitting with San Francisco ranked 20 with a batting average of .259 averaging 4.0 runs per game. Colorado is ranked 18 in hitting with a batting average of .259 averaging 5.0 runs per game. With the two pitchers starting for each team today we do not expect either team to reach their current average of runs scored. The Rockies are 13-3 under (+9.6) in road games versus teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game this season and the Giants are 13-4 under (+8.6) vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.450 to 1.550 this season. With solid fundamental, situational and technical support for the under we will play this game to fall below the posted total.
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Graded Selection: 2* Colorado Rockies / San Francisco Giants UNDER 7.5
Rocketman
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Milwaukee Brewers
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Milwaukee is now 63-66 on the season while Pittsburgh comes in with a 53-74 overall record this year. Pittsburgh is 4-15 this year when playing on Sunday. Pittsburgh is 18-45 on the road this year and 12-28 in day games this season. Pittsburgh is scoring only 3.7 runs per game on the road this year. Pittsburgh bullpen has a 4.95 ERA on the road this year. Ross Ohlendorf is 3-6 with a 5.51 ERA on the road this year. Milwaukee is 32-12 overall vs Pittsburgh the last 3 years including 22-1 at home vs Pittsburgh and 5-0 at home against Pittsburgh this year. Suppan is 13-3 overall vs Pittsburgh since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee today!
Craig Trapp
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5
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Kershaw goes for the LAD today and even though he has not received a win his last 7 starts he still has maintained a great ERA of under 3 and opponent BA of under .250 and only 1 HR over that time period. In almost every start the LAD did not produce runs to back his good pitching performance. But yesterday saw the LAD get 10 runs against the CIN Reds and will continue into Sunday. Today they will try and bang out some runs verse Reds starter Arroyo. He has been great only allowing 2 runs in almost 26 innings. Sounds great until you look at who they were against WASH, SFG, and MIL none of which have been scoring lately. The best lineup in baseball (LAD) will score early and often and get to Arroyo early. When Arroyo gets hit up early usually he gives up 5 plus runs. The Reds have continued to struggle at plate only averaging 2.5 runs per game since all star break (lowest in majors). Really like the R/L here!! SCORE LAD 7 - CIN 1
Marc Lawrence
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Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks
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The Diamondbacks close out their three-game series with the Astros when they send ace right hander Dan Haren to the hill in Arizona this afternoon. Haren enters today's fray with wins in 12 of his last 18 team starts. He's also 2-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his career team starts at home against Houston. With the Astros just 3-9 in their last twelve games in this park, look for Haren to improve on his numbers here today.
MATT FARGO
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Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Over 10
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Two of the first three games of this series have stayed ‘Under’ but we should see that even out today. The Orioles are averaging 4.1 rpg on the road which is 21st in baseball and their .245 road average is good for 22nd in the Majors. Playing at home is a different story however as they average a full rpg more which is 10th highest in baseball and their .295 average at home tops all other teams. The Indians have been a solid offensive team away from home. They are averaging 5.6 rpg on the road which is ties for the second highest mark in baseball and they are hitting .280 which is good for third best in the bigs. They are hitting .340 against left-handed pitching over their last 10 games and get to face lefty Brian Matusz this afternoon. He has made five starts this season and none of those have been quality outings as he has posted a 6.46 ERA and 2.03 WHIP covering 23.2 innings. At home, his numbers are 6.35 and 2.47 respectively as he has made only one start at Progressive Field, allowing four runs on 11 hits and three walks in 5.2 innings against the Angels. Cleveland counters with Justin Masterson who was acquired from Boston in the Victor Martinez trade. In four starts for the Indians, he does have one quality outing and in 10 starts overall, he has just three quality performances. He is 0-3 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in six road starts and the opposition has hit .291 over those games. The ‘Over’ is 12-3-2 in the Indians last 17 road games against a left-handed starter while the ‘Over’ is 4-1 in the Orioles last five home games against a right-handed starter.
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3* Over Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles
DAVE COKIN
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COLORADO ROCKIES / SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
TAKE: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
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Jason Hammel has been a revelation of sorts for the Rockies, and his numbers on the road are very surprising. But for the first time in ages, the Rockies have suddenly hit a pothole. They're on a four-game losing streak and they're in tough today against Matt Cain. The Giants have momentum, home field and the better pitcher, so I'll have to lean their way today.
JIM FEIST
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SAN DIEGO PADRES / FLORIDA MARLINS
TAKE: OVER
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Padres can't wait for this season to be over as they are dead last in the NL West and have the worst run differential in the majors (-148). Rookie Matt Latos starts for the Padres. Latos bounced back with a nice outing last time out after giving up 12 earned runs in 7 2/3 innings the previous two games. The 21-year old's biggest problem has been inconsistency. He looks horrible at times and then looks like a big leaguer with a future at others. However, today we believe the Mr Hyde version comes out as it gets ugly against the Florida Marlins. The Marlins have to keep pace for the NL Wild Card and these type games are crucial to them. West doesn't usually last long in starts, having three of his last five outings go less than five innings. West won't get you many Ko's either with just 40 in 75 innings versus 33 walks. Two young inexperienced pitchers here on Sunday and that will provide all the runs we need to get this game OVER.
Dominic Fazzini
San Diego at FLORIDA -140
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The Angels' bullpen blew a possible win for me Saturday on my complimentary selection, but I expect the Marlins to get me going back in the right direction today.
Florida rookie Sean West (5-5, 4.44 ERA) is right at home when he takes the mound in Miami. The left-hander is 4-2 with a 3.50 ERA in eight home starts, including 3-0 with a 2.82 ERA in his last four outings at Land Shark Stadium.
West allowed one run and six hits in six innings at home Tuesday in a 2-1 victory over the Mets.
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Padres rookie Mat Latos (4-3, 4.06) is winless in his last three outings, although he pitched well in his last start, giving up two hits in seven scoreless innings Tuesday at Atlanta.
The right-hander lost his previous two outings, however, allowing 12 runs on 15 hits and seven walks in 7 2/3 innings. He has never faced Florida.
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San Diego has won the first two games of this series, but a sweep is pretty unlikely given its 23-41 road record. And the Padres have not swept three games in Miami since August 2000. They're not going to do it this weekend. Take the Marlins.
2♦ FLORIDA
Bobby Maxwell
Atlanta at PHILADELPHIA -130
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Tonight I've got a FREE selection on the diamond as I love the Phillies at home in the Sunday night game against the Braves.
Philadelphia is definitely the play in this one on national TV as they have Joe Blanton (8-6, 3.88 ERA) on the mound. This guy hasn't given up more than three runs in a game in 10 straight starts and when that continues tonight, the Phillies get an easy win.
Blanton has already faced the Braves four times this season and just about two weeks ago he held them to two runs (one earned) through seven innings of a 3-2 victory. Philadelphia is 12-5 in Blanton's last 17 starts against N.L. East rivals, 9-3 when he starts as a favorite and 7-0 when he pitches on Sundays.
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As a team, the Phillies are on runs of 35-17 overall, 72-33 on Sundays, 29-13 as a favorite, 19-8 as a home favorite and 20-8 at home. Philadelphia has a seven game lead in the division over the Braves and a win tonight goes a long way to putting Atlanta away.
Jair Jurrjens (10-8, 2.91) goes for the Braves. Atlanta is just 1-2 in his last three starts because they just don't bring their bats when he pitches. Tuesday he gave up on run in 7.2 innings but they lost to the Padres 2-1.
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Big spot for the Phillies tonight and I'm banking on Blanton holding the Braves to three runs or less. Expect the Philadelphia offense to break out and win this one 6-3.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Jeff Benton
Chi. White Sox +200 at NY YANKEES
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Bad call with the Cowboys in NFL preseason action Saturday. For Sunday, we’ll go back to the diamond and play the White Sox plus the big money at the Yankees.
I know Chicago got destroyed 10-0 yesterday after suffering a heartbreaking, walk-off 5-2 loss on Friday. I know the Pale House are mired in a 1-5 funk, including losing four of the first five games on this crucial road trip in Boston and New York. And I know Ozzie Guillen’s team hasn’t much enjoyed visiting the Bronx in recent years, losing 10 of the last 12 meetings.
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All that said, how do you NOT go after this kind of take-back price with the way New York’s Joba Chamberlain has been pitching? The big right-hander has an 8.55 ERA in four starts this month, giving up 4, 4, 4 and 7 runs in those outings. After getting nine days of rest following a 10-3 loss in Seattle, Chamberlain came back on Tuesday and gave up seven runs in four innings of a 10-9 home loss to Texas, laying a minus-200 price.
Chamberlain now has a 5.35 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP in new Yankee Stadium, and opponents are reaching base at a .378 clip against him.
Granted, I’m obviously not a huge fan of White Sox starter Freddy Garcia, who has made just five big-league starts since June 2007, including two in the last 10 days. However, Garcia pitched well at Boston on Tuesday, holding a hot-hitting Red Sox offense to three runs in 6 1/3 innings, with Chicago eventually losing 6-3.
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Bottom line: I expect Garcia to get hit a bit today, but I also expect Dye, Thome, Konerko, Quentin and the White Sox offense to bounce back from Saturday’s pathetic showing and become the latest team to pound Chamberlain. And although I don’t think this is going to be easy by any means, to get this kind of plus price is too good to pass up.
2♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX