Sports Gambling Hotline
Chicago at NY YANKEES
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The White Sox were held to a paltry 1-hit on Saturday, but I have a feeling they will have way more than 1-hit this Sunday afternoon against the fading Joba Chamberlain.
The whole "Joba Rules" experiement the Yankees are going with just has this kid all messed up, and the bottom line is in each of his last 4 starts he has allowed 4 runs or better to score.
The line breaks down like this: 19 earned runs, 15 walks allowed, and 27 hits in just 20 innings of work. If Chicago can't get something started off of Joba today, then something is seriously wrong with Ozzie's team!
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As for Chicago starter Freddy Garcia, his 2 return assignments to the rotation have seen 8 runs cross in 10 innings of work.
The Yankees plated 10 on Saturday, and have plated a grand total of 43 runs in their last 6 games overall.
We see this Sunday series-ender heading OVER the posted total.
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Play the HIGH in the Bronx today!
3♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Tampa Bay +155 at DETROIT
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I feel the price on Justin Verlander is a little steep today, especially after the Rays came up with the 3-1 win on Saturday.
Tampa is still the defending American League champs, and while they have struggled away from home for the most part this year, they have been able to win 3 of the 5 on this current road trek.
Jeff Niemann was hit hard his last time out, but got enough offense to make him a winner. That makes it 12-5 for the year, and 7-3 on the road this season.
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Justin Verlander is certainly a tough cookie, but he has been hit in his last 2 starts, and in 4 of his last 5 overall. Throw away his 8 shutout innings at Boston 3 starts ago, and Verlander has surrendered 17 runs in 27-plus innings of work for 2-2 mark.
Tampa does have some hitters in their lineup, and I can see them getting to Verlander as they leave the Motor City with the series win this Sunday.
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Take the Rays in the dog role.
1♦ TAMPA BAY
Tony Weston
Bad call with the Colts as Indy can’t come through. That’s fine because I’m coming through today as I’m taking the Dodgers on the Run Line at the Cincinnati Reds.
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After dropping Game 1 of this series Friday, the Dodgers destroyed the Reds yesterday, beating Cincinnati 11-4.
But that’s nothing new for the Dodgers when playing the Reds.
In five meetings this season Los Angeles has gone 4-1 against Cincinnati, beating the Reds, on average, by four runs per game (7.6-3.6).
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Going back a little further, since last season the Dodgers have taken 10 of their last 11 meetings against Cincinnati, beating them, on average 5.7-2.9.
It won’t get any better for the Reds as Los Angeles cruise to an easy win today. Take the Run Line on the Dodgers in this one.
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3♦ DODGERS -1.5
Craig Davis
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Talk about story lines... it doesn't get much better than Jay Cutler vs. Kyle Orton... or is it Jay Cutler vs. the Denver fans or Jay Cutler vs. Josh McDaniels? Either way, this game is going to be intense in the first half as the starters are expected to play the first 30 minutes. In case you've been hibernating the last three months, Cutler was traded from Denver to Chicago while Kyle Orton, last year's Bears starter, was shipped to Denver and will start tonight's game in a new uniform. The environment will be hostile, though it will calm down by the second quarter. Look for Cutler to press a little in the early going, but by the end of the second half he'll settle down and find his reads. The Bears have won the last two head-to-head meetings with the Broncos and I don't see anything to make me change my mind. It's gonna be all Chicago from the second quarter and I'll take all the points I can get. Chicago wins outright.
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2♦ CHICAGO
DUNKEL
Tampa Bay at Detroit
The Rays look to build on their 5-2 record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Tampa Bay is the pick (+155) according to Dunkel, which has the Rays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155)
Game 951-952: San Diego at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.109; Florida (West) 14.430
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-140); Under
Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.487; Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.042
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-175); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+165); Over
Game 955-956: Atlanta at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.841; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.196
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Over
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 14.245; Milwaukee (Suppan) 15.097
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Over
Game 959-960: Washington at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Mock) 15.102; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.872
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-330); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+290); Under
Game 961-962: NY Mets at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Figueroa) 14.318; Cubs (Zambrano) 15.338
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-275); No Run Line
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-275); N/A
Game 963-964: Colorado at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Hammel) 14.687; San Francisco (Cain) 15.149
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-140); Under
Game 965-966: Houston at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 15.195; Arizona (Haren) 15.024
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Arizona (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+125); Under
Game 967-968: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Garcia) 14.997; NY Yankees (Chamberlain) 16.656
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-235); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-235); Over
Game 969-970: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.281; Detroit (Verlander) 14.997
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+155); Under
Game 971-972: Toronto at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Halladay) 15.192; Boston (Byrd) 14.250
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 973-974: Cleveland at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.812; Baltimore (Matusz) 16.834
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-125); 10
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+115); Over
Game 975-976: Texas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Millwood) 15.635; Minnesota (Baker) 16.104
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-135); Over
Game 977-978: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.797; LA Angels (Lackey) 15.788
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-180); Under
Game 979-980: Kansas City at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.650; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 14.757
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-115); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-115); Under
WNBA DUNKEL
Minnesota at Washington
The Lynx look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 home games. Minnesota is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mystics favored by just 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4)
Game 651-652: Chicago at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 111.281; New York 111.147
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 144
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3 1/2; 147
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Minnesota at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 107.911; Washington 110.518
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 2 1/2; 169
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 4; 165
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+4); Over
Game 655-656: Connecticut at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 111.974; Los Angeles 116.101
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 4; 143
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 3 1/2; 146
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-3 1/2); Under
NFL
Game 279-280: Chicago at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 122.043; Denver 121.840
Dunkel Line: Even; 33 1/2
Vegas Line: Denver by 3; 38
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+3); Under
Tony Mathew's
Cleveland Indians vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Cleveland/Baltimore Over 10
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The Cleveland Indians will use starting pitcher Justin Masterson. Justin Masterson has struggled this season. In fact, Justin Masterson has a 4.47 ERA on the season. In addition, Justin Masterson has a 5.74 ERA in his last 3 starts. We see Justin Masterson giving up many runs once again today.
The Baltimore Orioles will use starting pitcher Brian Matusz. Brian Matusz has also struggled this season. In fact, Brian Matusz has a 6.46 ERA on the season. It's safe to say that Brian Matusz will also give up many runs once again today.
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The OVER has been a smart investment when the Cleveland Indians are playing on the road. This is because the OVER is 12-4-4 in CLE last 20 road games.
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Take the Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles Over 10
Larry Ness
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Tampa Bay Rays @ Detroit Tigers
PICK: Detroit Tigers
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The Rays and Tigers meet Sunday afternoon in the third game of a four-games series (Detroit won Friday, Tampa Bay on Saturday). Tampa Bay sends rookie Jeff Niemann to the mound while Detroit counters with Justin Verlander. Niemann is 12-5 with a 3.87 ERA in 24 appearances (23 starts). The Rays are an impressive 16-7 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$995, which ranks fifth among all starters. Verlander, coming off an 11-13 (4.84 ERA) season where the Tigers were 13-20 in his starts (moneyline mark of minus-$1,351 was a ML-worst!), is 14-7 with a 3.38 ERA in 2009. The Tigers are 17-10 in his starts, as Verlander has allowed 163 hits in 181 innings with 211 strikeouts. Both pitchers have fallen off a little recently, as Niemann has allowed four or more ERs in four of his last six starts with Verlander allowing four or more ERs in three of his last five. After going 7-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his first 10 starts at Comerica Park this year, Verlander is 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA in his last two. However, I won't ignore the fact that he's 7-2 with a 2.23 ERA in 12 home starts (team is 9-3) for a Detroit team which is 41-21 at home, outscoring opponents 5.16 RPG-to-3.97. Meanwhile, the Rays are a modest 28-37 on the road. Take the Tigers.
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on LA Angels -1.5 +100
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After going down to Oakland Saturday, expect the Angels to bounce back in game 4 of this series to earn a split. The Halos have the big edge on the hill with Lackey, who is 15-4 when starting against Oakland with an ERA of 2.66 and a WHIP of 1.131 in his career. Off back-to-back losses and subpar performances, I expect him to bring his A-game this afternoon. The A's have dropped Anderson's last 3 starts, during which he has posted an ERA of 5.21. The Angels are 4-0 in Lackey's last 4 home starts vs. the Athletics, 6-1 in his last 7 starts vs. the Athletics, and 36-15 in his last 51 starts following a team loss in their previous game. He's the guy who we want to have the ball for the Halos today. Angels on the run line.
Triple Threat Sports
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Play Seattle over Kansas City
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A look at the starting pitchers here today's shows Greinke with a 3.01 road ERA and a 4-8 record in road team starts while Rowland-Smith has a very similar 3.18 Home ERA and a winning team start home record. So, stats say starting hurlers not as far off as line (KC road chalk) would indicate, and with the rest of the stats (Royals 2-8 L/10 overall, 8-24 L/32 against winning teams, Seattle 5-1 L/6 overall) pointing to the home team, we will go with the Mariners here.
Drew Gordon
Texas at MINNESOTA -135
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Now on a 49-36 roll with the plays I'm giving away, incl. the 49ers outright over the Cowboys 20-13 Saturday! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Texas/Minnesota match up...
Although they've been playing well, there's no question the Rangers are not the same team on the road, and that includes today's starter Kevin Millwood. Note, the Rangers are a ho-hum 31-32 away, while Millwood's ERA rises from a solid 2.83 in Arlington to a very beatable 4.56 ERA on the highway! Going one step further, the Twins just finished tagging Millwood for 5 runs in 5 2/3 innings back on August 19th - and that was at Rangers Ballpark - won't get any easier for Millwood today at the Metrodome.
On the flip side, Twins-backers are confident in Scott Baker's abilities today, as well they should be, since he's gone an outstanding 10-1 since June, incl. 3-0 with 2.11 ERA over his L3 starts! Not only that, but the Twinkies are 4-0 when he takes the mound in his L4 home starts, incl. a win over the Rangers opposite Millwood August 19th.
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For as good as Millwood has been this season, the pitching edge swings heavily in Minnesota's favor today. Rangers righty has been a disaster over his L2 starts, including that loss to the Twins. Also of note, the Rangers are 4-9 in their L13 games at the Metrodome, and I expect good things from this Twins offense coming off the 3-0 shutout loss yesterday. They get to do it versus a pitcher who's 0-7 with a 6.18 ERA in 11 career starts against them, and l see more trouble ahead for Millwood this afternoon.
Take Minnesota behind Baker over Texas and Millwood in this MLB match up.
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3♦ MINNESOTA
John Ryan
Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Milwaukee Brewers
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Milwaukee as the face the Pirates set to start at 2:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 38-12 ATS for 76% winners since 2003. Play on all NL favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season and ERA >= 7.00 over his last 5 starts. Pirates are in a series of poor roles for this game noting they are just 7-26 (-16.6 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season; 2-16 (-13.1 Units) against the money line in road games versus teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the second half of the season this season; 8-32 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games versus a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better over the last 2 seasons. Take the Brewers.
Rob Homyak
5 Units on Philadelphia Phillies
The Braves dominated from the start and earned a 9-1 win over the Phillies in an eight-inning rain-shortened game on Saturday, as +170 underdogs. The 10 runs made it OVER the posted over/under (8.5).
Garret Anderson went 3-for-4 at the plate with a three-run homer to lead the Braves. Derek Lowe improved to 13-8 with the win over 5 2-3 innings of work.
Chase Utley belted a solo home run for the Phillies, who were favored at -190 in that game. Cliff Lee gave up 10 hits and six runs over five innings in the loss.
Philadelphia is 12-5 in Blanton's last 17 starts against N.L. East rivals, 9-3 when he starts as a favorite and 7-0 when he pitches on Sundays. As a team, the Phillies are on runs of 35-17 overall, 72-33 on Sundays, 29-13 as a favorite, 19-8 as a home favorite and 20-8 at home, 13-5 SU in its last 18 games. Atlanta when playing on Sunday is 3-7.
PHILADELPHIA is 49-30 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 15-5 (+9.4 Units) against the money line when playing on Sunday this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 71-50 (+7.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
BLANTON is 13-4 (+10.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
Umpire Trends - Lance Barksdale
Home team is 8-1 in Barksdales last 9 games behind home plate.
Home team is 6-1 in Barksdales last 7 games behind home plate vs. Atlanta.
Home team is 5-1 in Barksdales last 6 Sunday games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Barksdales last 5 Sunday games behind home plate vs. Philadelphia.