Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, August 4

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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New York Yankees at San Diego PadresSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: New York YankeesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Yankees send Philip Hughes to the mound against recently acquired Ian Kennedy in the finale of this three-game series in San Diego Sunday afternoon, New York will do so knowing Hughes' 3.02 road ERA is a full three runs lower than his 6.02 home ERA this season. On the flip side, Kennedy has lost the money in 9 of his last 10 team starts. With that look for Hughes to improve to 11-5 in his last sixteen team starts during August here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the NY Yankees.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Braves vs. PhilliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Alex Wood (1-2, 3.51 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Wood gave up three runs off six hits with one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in an 11-3 win over the Rockies on Tuesday. Wood will be throwing opposite the venerable Cliff Lee (10-4, 3.05 ERA) who is coming off his first loss in a month vs. the Nats on Wednesday, surrendering four runs off nine hits over seven innings, walking nobody. He did strike out six and note that he'd gone unbeaten in his previous 12 starts. Now that the trade deadline has come and gone, Lee can settle in for the second half and will be looking to improve upon his respectable 4-2, 3.97 ERA home record. On the national stage, expect these competent starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this total to sneak below the posted number.

Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta BravesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The Phillies are 2-11 in their last 13 overall and 1-4 in Lee's last 5 starts.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers -1.5

We will use the run line here at -1.5 at -115 here as the money line is too high. These are two teams heading in opposite directions as the Tigers are on a solid run and Chicago appears to be over matched and looks like they have thrown in the towel. Detroit is 7-0 as a home favorite from -140 and up off a home win where they scored 4 or less runs. Chicago is 1-17 on the road off a road game where they scored 2 or less runs and have lost 30 of 42 in divisional Play. The Sox are hitting just .211 on the road and are averaging under 2 runs the past week. The vaunted Tigers lineup is averaging 6.6 the past 7 days and 5.5 here at home. In the series Detroit has won 18 of the last 23 here. Today they have C, Porcello going and he has been good allowing just 3 runs in 13 innings this season vs Chicago. He will oppose A. Rienzo making his 2nd start. His first one was Solid in Cleveland, However this will be a much tougher task. Look for Detroit to coast in the finale.

Bryan Power

Dodgers vs. Cubs
Pick: Dodgers

The Dodgers continue to win at a frightening rate as yesterday's 3-0 shut out of the Cubs brings them to 30-7 overall the last 37 games, including a franchise record 13 consecutive wins on the road. The Cubs have now lost six of seven and I don't see them standing in LA's way of another victory here & a 4-game sweep...

Cubs starter Carlos Villanueva has not pitched well since rejoining the rotation in June, making it even tougher on the home team here. Villanueva has a 6.04 ERA his last five starts and a 8.22 ERA his last three. Last time out, he allowed four runs over 6.3 innings in a 6-5 home loss to Milwaukee.

At press time, it is unclear who the Dodgers are going with on the hill. It will either be Zach Grienke, who we know has been dominant, or Stephen Fife, who has 2.00 ERA his last three starts himself. Regardless of who starts, I expect the Dodgers to win here. Same thing with the Yasiel Puig injury. The Dodgers are just playing too well and the Cubs too poorly for me not to lean to the road team in this one.

Jesse Schule

Kansas City vs. NY Mets
Pick: Kansas City

I added a late breaking play on Kansas City to my Saturday card when the news came out that David Wright be put on the DL. The Royals needed extra-innings, but they would cash in a winner, and I finished the day 3-1 with my guaranteed selections. I'm also 18-5-1 with my last 24 free plays.

While I was watching the game, I listened to the Mets broadcast team say: "after getting a good look at this Kansas City team, you know their lineup isn't very good." I chuckled to myself, thinking that sounds a lot like the pot calling the kettle black. They do have a point, only three teams in the American League have scored fewer runs than Kansas City.

That being said, only two teams in the majors are hitting for a lower average than the Mets, and you take away David Wright from the equation, and your left with an embarrassing lack of talent.

Sunday's matinee will feature a pair of very capable pitchers, veteran Ervin Santana for the Royals, and rookie Zack Wheeler for the Mets. Wheeler (4-1, 3.55 ERA) is 3-0 in his last five, and the Mets have won all five of those games. It's going to take more than a stellar performance from Wheeler though, as the Mets still need to score on Santana, and then there is their banged up bullpen without Bobby Parnell.

Santana (7-6, 3.03 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on four hits over seven innings in a win on the road in Minnesota his last time out. He's 2-0 over his last three starts, allowing just three runs, and the Royals have won all three of those games. He's in a good spot to pad his stats today, in a pitcher friendly park, facing what has to be the worst lineup in the majors (at least without Wright).

The Royals have won nine of their last 10, and there is every reason to think they will add to that total today.

Bruce Marshall

NY Yankees vs. San Diego
Pick: San Diego -1.5

Ian Kennedy makes his first start for the Padres after the trade deadline deal with Arizona, hoping that a change in venue will turn around what has been a disappointing season. A flyball pitcher, Kennedy figures to fare a bit better in the spaciousness of Petco Park, where he fortunately gets his first San Diego start on Sunday, and against his one-time New York team to boot. The Padres were flummoxed by Ivan Nova on Saturday in the Yankees' 3-0 win, but don't figure to be in as tough against Phil Hughes, who has been mediocre lately (4.76 ERA last three starts) and has gone fewer than five innings on seven different occasions this season.

Will Rogers

Texas vs. Oakland
Pick: Under

This is a free play on the Under for Sunday's game between the Rangers and Athletics. This is the rubber match of a three-game set between the division rivals with Texas taking the opener 8-3 followed by a 4-2 Oakland win yesterday.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Texas Now an Under Team - Excluding pushes, the Rangers are now 66-39 Under in all games this season. That includes a 23-6 mark in day games and 33-14 mark after a loss. They have been held to two runs or less in three of their past four road games.

2. Starting Pitching Matchup - Both Derek Holland and AJ Griffin saw the Over cash in their last starts, but for the year both have been very effective. Griffin, who has a 3.59 ERA at home, has allowed just three runs total against the Rangers in two starts this season. Holland has a 2.45 ERA his last eight road starts.

3. X-Factor - Oakland is averaging just 3.9 runs per game vs. lefties.

Stephen Nover

Chicago White Sox +200

The White Sox are complete garbage. But I can't pass up this highly overinflated line. The Tigers are pitching Rick Porcello, who has pitched well this month but still has a 4.49 ERA. The Tigers are likely to be missing Miguel Cabrera, too.

The White Sox are pitching Andre Rienzo, who shined in his big league debut this past Tuesday not allowing an earned run in seven innings against the Indians. Rienzo gave up just two hits and walked three. Rienzo has the added incentive of trying to become the first Brazilian-born pitcher to record a victory in the major leagues.

The White Sox are trying to avoid their first double-digit losing streak since 1976. The Tigers could be in for a letdown having continually beat up on the White Sox and facing the Indians, their closest division rival, for a four-game road series beginning Monday. So the spot is ripe for a flat Detroit performance.

Dave Essler

Atlanta Braves +115

Alex Wood does not suck. The Braves are simply the better team, like the Dodgers were yesterday and I am not buying this back. So pissed at that. Braves know all about Cliff Lee and Lee has had extra rest, so he could be a bit over-hyped. Atlanta clearly the better bullpen and the better bats, and over the last week the highest scoring team in baseball.

The rest of my leans, in no particular order: Pirates over: Doubt AJ shuts them down. 6-2 type game. Cardinals: They know Leake, who is simply due to get shelled. Oakland: Not quite ready to trust Griffin, but cheap at home. Oakland over: Wind blowing out. Have to think there's some reverse regression after all the LOB Sat. NY Mets: Simply instinct. Total down. I don't trust Santana.

Jimmy Boyd

San Diego Padres -108

The Yankees will have Phil Hughes getting the start today and that means the Padres are the smart play in this matchup. Hughes has a 4-9 record in his 20 starts this year and he is trending in the wrong direction. Over this last three starts he has posted a 4.76 ERA and a 1.412 WHIP with five home runs allowed. The Yankees will struggle to provide him run support as they average just 2.4 runs per game with a .206 batting average in interleague games.

Ian Kennedy will take the mound for the Padres and he has shown a lot of improvement in his most recent starts. His ERA is down to 3.94 over this past three games and he has 17 strikeouts in 16 innings pitched. At times the Padres have had their scoring issues this season, but I don't expect that to be a problem today against Hughes. San Diego is 6 games above .500 at home this year, and they have boosted their scoring average to four runs per game.

Brad Diamond

Kansas City -139

Granted RHP Zack Wheeler looked awesome last time stopping the opposition for seven innings. In fact the youngster has thrown outstanding ball since the break, over the last three starts he is 1-0 with 3.57 ERA. New York does continue to generate excitement for their fans with young arms, however, their bats continue to suffer. At this writing third basemen David Wright is injured and out indefinitely. The Mets are 0-4 when he is out of the lineup.

KC has been red hot since the break going 12-3 and 8-2 in extra innings. Opposing hurler RHP Santana has been covered by the Royals last 5/6 starts. Further, in this price Santana/KC is on a PERFECT 7-0 roll. With balls and strikes umpire Jim Wolfe the road team facing the Mets is a monster 5-1 L6. Our Sunday Edition…Kansas City!

Justin Bay

Milwaukee Brewers -119

Taylor Jordan
- Last game vs. MIL: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 1.06 WHIP, .273 OBA
- Career vs. MIL: 3.18 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, .273 OBA
- Away: 3.38 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, .328 OBA
- Brewers hitters vs. Jordan in his career: .300 BA

Kyle Lohse
- Last game vs. WAS: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 0.63 WHIP, .143 OBA
- Career vs. WAS: 4.82 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, .263 OBA
- Home: 3.18 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, .273 OBA

Nationals
- .252 BA vs. Righties
- 28th in Runs Scored
- 21st in Slugging %

Brewers
- .251 BA vs. Righties
- 22nd in Runs Scored
- 14th in Slugging %

Blue Jays / Angels Over 8

Mark Buehrle
- Career vs. LAA: 4.43 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .289 OBA
- Away: 5.76 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, .289 OBA
- Has pitched well in last 3 starts
- Angels hitters vs. Buehrle in his career: .291 BA

C.J. Wilson
- Career vs. TOR: 3.52 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, .255 OBA
- Home: 2.21 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, .210 OBA
- Coming off terrible start @ TEX: 4.0 IP, 11 H, 6 ER

Blue Jays
- .253 BA vs. Lefties
- 7th in Runs Scored
- 5th in Slugging %

Angels
- .239 BA vs. Lefties
- 9th in Runs Scored
- 4th in Slugging %

White Sox / Tigers Total Under 8½

Detroit has taken the first two games of this series by a very small margin and today's game will be no different. Andre Rienzo will be making his second start of his career for the White Sox. He is coming off a very good start on the road against Cleveland going seven innings and letting up no earned runs.

Rick Porcello who has struggled this year will be getting the start for the Tigers. However, in his last start against the White Sox he went seven innings letting up no earned runs and holding the Chicago lineup to a .174 batting average. Look for him to have a good start at home against a White Sox team that struggles to score runs.

Doug Upstone

Nationals vs. Brewers
Play: Under 8½

On Sunday, we have pitchers in good form in Washington's Taylor Jordan (1-3, 3.31 ERA) and Milwaukee's Kyle Lohse (7-7, 3.22). This afternoon, look to PLAY UNDER on road teams when the total is 8 to 8.5, when team's hitters strike out seven or more times a game on the season, against opponent with a hot starting pitcher, whose ERA is less than 3.00 (Lohse)over his last 10 games. This is a high volume system as 132-70, which has produced +53.3 units of profit the last five years.