SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles -115 over CHICAGO
When the wind is blowing in at Wrigley Field, as it is today, playing the run-line is too risky but wagering against Carlos Villanueva at this price is not. The Dodgers are much undervalued today and we’re on it. Villanueva has experienced the greatest fastball velocity drop vs. 2012 of any NL starting pitcher, a fact that has led to his strikeout rate dip from an acceptable one in 2012 to a rapidly declining one this year. Villanueva has transformed himself into more of a groundball pitcher but even that rate (42%) is not close to being at an elite level. With an 87 mph fastball, that really has been his only choice. The Cubbies have lost Villanueva’s last four starts. He’s also walked 12 batters over his past 25 innings because he’s afraid to come at hitter’s now. Villanueva has a 6.04 ERA over his past five starts with only one of those five being of the pure quality variety. As a starter, Villanueva has nothing but downside and these hot Dodgers can sniff a wounded prey.
Stephen Fife has had a lot of injury woes over the past few years but when he’s healthy he’s damn good. Fife was a third round selection of the Red Sox in ’08 before being sent to Los Angeles at the trade deadline in ’11. He reached the majors in ’12 and started five games. He offers a big and durable frame along with the ability to induce groundball outs. He throws with loose arm action that gives him some projection but he hasn’t realized his true velocity potential. He generally sits in the 88-93 mph range with his quality sinker and he can sometimes touch 95 if he has to. Fife works ahead in the count consistently and rarely puts hitters on base via the walk. In just eight starts with the Dodgers this year he has posted a 2.76 ERA over 46 innings. Fife also has an outstanding groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio of 53%/20%29%. Fife has not allowed a home-run in four of his last five starts and absolutely has a great chance to thrive here. The same can’t be said for Villanueva.
Washington +102 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers are a train wreck right now. They’ve lost three in a row and have scored just two runs over that span. Only the Marlins, Astros and White Sox have fewer wins than Milwaukee and only the Astros and White Sox have fewer wins since the beginning of May. The two very nice seasons logged by Kyle Lohse in St. Louis were easily dismissed as a) flukes and b) the result of some wizardry by Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan. Now in his debut season as a Brewer, Lohse is pitching as well as ever, even if the W-L record doesn't show it. Well, sort of. Lohse has never been a dominant pitcher and survives on pinpoint control and the ability of his defense to make plays. His hit and strand rates the past two years plus, including this season are mildly lucky and explain the gap between ERA and xERA. Lohse's hr/f rate has jumped but before you blame Miller Park (+30% LHB HR) know the HR totals have been pretty evenly split home and away. Lohse is coming off three dominant starts in a row in which he’s allowed one earned run over 19 innings. However, those three starts came against the Marlins, Cubs and Padres and the results have him overvalued here. Lohse is 34 years old and has been pretty stable in an otherwise turbulent Brewers rotation but he’s nothing more than a serviceable pitcher on a reeling ball club.
Are the talented Nationals going to put together even one great run this season? This has to be one of the most disappointing seasons ever for a team with this much talent and starting pitching. The Nationals have taken the first two games of this series and have now won five of their last seven. That’s not saying much, especially when considering the opposition but it is a start and they need to keep the momentum going with the first place Braves on deck. Jordan Taylor is getting better with each start. At 24 and no time above A-ball, Jordan was not even ranked in the Nationals top 15 prospects at the start of the year but after his sizzling start to the 2013 season, he quickly moved up the ranks and is beginning to dominate at this level too. This kid can pitch. Overall, he has an elite 58% groundball rate over six starts. He also has pinpoint control that has seen him walk just three batters over his past 20 innings. Only once has Jordan allowed more than three runs in a game. His strikeout rate is also trending the right way. With that, we’ll gladly take our chances on the Nationals taking back a small price here because we get the team in better form with the better offense, bullpen, defense and starter.
Jim Feist
Blue Jays at Angels
Play: Over
This is a great park to hit home runs and and a pair of pitchers who have control or hitting concerns on the mound. The over is 16-5-1 in the Blue Jays last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing record and 8-3 over the total as an underdog. Aging lefty Mark Buehrle has been hittable, and he's 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA on the road. The over is 13-6 in the Blue Jays last 19 vs. a team with a losing record. LA is has a ton of talent and a top 10 offense, but starter C.J. Wilson walks too many batters, 55 in 139+ innings He's walked 20 in 38 innings against Toronto. And when these teams meet the over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play the Angels/Blue Jays over the total.
Big Kat Sports
Cleveland Indians vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Cleveland Indians -120
The Cleveland Indians will look for another series win this afternoon when they take on the Marlins at MarlinsPark in Miami. The two teams split the first two games of the series, with the Marlins taking the Friday night contest 10-0 before the Indians bounced back with a 4-3 last night.
Cleveland will send Scott Kazmir to the hill, who seems to have revived his career here with the Indians. He hasn’t had a loss in his last 9 starts and he has allowed two runs or fewer in 6 of them. The Marlins will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, who was part of the huge trade last year that sent Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Eovaldi has struggled at home in his career, posting just a 2-8 record and he has never faced the Indians in his short career.
Here are a few trends in addition to the starting pitching advantage that have us leaning towards the Indians this afternoon.
Indians are 6-1 in their last 7 interleague games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 during game 3 of a series.
Indians are 9-1 in their last 10 overall.
Indians are 5-1 in Kazmir’s last 6 starts as a favorite.
Marlins are 2-14 in their last 16 interleague games as an underdog.
Marlins are 8-21 in their last 29 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Marlins are 3-10 in Eovaldi’s last 13 starts following a team loss in their previous game.
Pair those numbers with the fact that the Indians are 36-16 in their last 52 games when listed as a favorite on the road and we’ll roll with them to get the series win in Miami.
Wunderdog
Toronto at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -125
A long road trip for Toronto, 3,000 miles to the West Coast, their seventh straight road contest. It's been a bad trip, riding a 3-game skid. Veteran Mark Buehrle (4.27 ERA) doesn't have overpowering stuff, and is 2-5 with a 5.76 ERA on the road. Toronto is on a 5-12 run, and the Blue Jays are 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Buehrle is just 2-7 in his career against the Angels with a 4.43 ERA. Los Angeles has got its offense going, ninth in baseball in runs scored, fifth in on base percentage, and fourth in slugging. The Angels are 4-0 in their last four home games, and 5-1 in C.J. Wilson's last six starts as a favorite. Wilson (11-6, 3.48 ERA) has been solid all year. Los Angeles is 4-0 the last four meetings, and the Blue Jays are 0-5 in the last five meetings in Los Angeles. Play the Los Angeles Angels.