JEFF BENTON
I’ve hit a bit of a rough stretch with the freebies lately, but I’m still on a 112-83-2 roll with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, we’ll play the Angels as they go for the three-game sweep of the free-falling Tigers.
L.A. has bounced back from an embarrassing series at Baltimore (the O’s swept a three-game set) by winning the first two games of this series in comfortable fashion (4-2 on Friday; 10-1 on Saturday). Although the Halos remain just 5-11 in their last 16 contests (3-7 on the road), they’re still playing better baseball than Detroit.
The Tigers have dropped four in a row and seven of eight, and going back to the Sunday right before the All-Star break, they have just five victories against 20 losses! During this 5-20 slump, Jim Leyland’s team has mustered three runs or fewer 16 times, and it has tallied a total of eight runs during its current four-game losing skid.
Well, if Detroit is going to find the win column today, it likely will have to find some offense. That’s because the disappointing Rick Porcello is set to get the ball. He’s 4-10 with a 5.91 ERA in 17 starts, including 0-3 with a 7.13 ERA in his last three contests. The Tigers have dropped six straight games that Porcello has started (they’re just 5-12 when he pitches this year), and they’re 1-5 in his last six home starts. And check out Porcello’s career stats against the Angels (including two games this year): 14 2/3 innings pitched, 15 runs and 21 hits (3 HRs).
Granted, Angels rookie Trevor Bell is never going to be confused with Cy Young, and his 5.90 ERA in the big leagues this season proves he’s definitely hittable. I just don’t see the anemic Tigers offense (sub-.235 batting average last 10 games) being able to take advantage. And even though the Angels will be without suspended slugger Torii Hunter, that didn’t much matter yesterday when Hunter sat out the Angels’ 10-1 victory!
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
JOEL TYSON
Free play winner on Saturday with San Francisco and Atlanta easily holding Under the total.
On to Sunday, and things are grand these days for the Reds, as they look to head home for a Monday date with the Cardinals fresh off a 3-game sweep of the Cubs.
Expect it to happen.
Travis Wood and Tom Diamond will toe the rubber, and Wood is looking for his third straight win, as he has worked 12 innings of 2 run ball over his last pair of starts for wins.
Diamond took the loss in his big league debut, and with the Reds 5-1 at Wrigley this season, and 9-3 overall against their division rival this season, I have to lay the road wood with the red-hot Reds.
3♦ CINCINNATI
Stephen Nover
My hot streak on with complimentary selections continues tonight with a play on AL West clash between Texas and Oakland.
I am on a 50-33-1 run on my free picks.
On the big Sunday card, I'm going to lay a small price with Oakland at home against Texas.
The A's have one of the hottest pitchers, Trevor Cahill, going and are the best day team in baseball at 26-11. They've won nine of their last 10 day games.
Cahill is on a streak of 18 scoreless innings. The All-Star right-hander is 6-2 at home with a 1.88 ERA. He has a 1.60 ERA during day games.
Cahill also has dominated Texas going 2-0 with a .0.96 ERA versus the Rangers this season. Lifetime, Cahill is 5-1 against the Rangers with a 1.83 ERA.
Texas is starting Colby Lewis, who has a 4.85 ERA in day games. Lewis also has a 3.68 road ERA compared to 3.14 ERA at home. The Rangers are 5-7 during Lewis' past 12 road outings.
Cahill bested Lewis two starts ago on the road, winning 3-1. Cahill held the Rangers scoreless in eight innings.
This is the Rangers' ninth straight road game. Fatigue could be taking a toll. They are batting just .239 during their long road swing.
Rob Drake is slated to be the home plate umpire. The A's are 5-1 the past six times Drake has been behind the plate for their home games.
4♦ OAKLAND
Chuck O'Brien
I’m 5-for-7 over the past week with my free releases after the A’s got the easy win yesterday over the Rangers. Sunday’s complimentary selection is an exact replay of Saturday’s as I’ll once again side with Oakland.
First off, what’s not to like about the A’s Trevor Cahill? He’s got filthy numbers all the way across the board, including 11-4 with a 2.72 ERA overall; 2-1 with 0.75 ERA in his last three starts; 6-2 with a 1.88 ERA at home; 4-1 with a 1.60 ERA in day games; and 5-1 with a 1.83 ERA in seven career starts against Texas.
With respect to that last statistic, three of Cahill’s seven career starts vs. the Rangers have come this season, and he’s 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA and a .175 batting-average against. The A’s won all three of those games, and ironically Cahill’s pitching counterpart in each contest is the same as today: Rangers right-hander Colby Lewis.
It’s not that Lewis has pitched poorly against Oakland this year (3.15 ERA); it’s just he hasn’t been as dominant as Cahill. Just go back to last Wednesday when these two squared off against each other in Texas. Lewis allowed just one run, five hits and two walks in seven innings, but Cahill went eight scoreless frames, giving up just three hits and four walks. He followed that with Monday’s complete-game, 6-0 shutout home win over the Royals (I nailed a 30 DIME run-line winner with that one!).
Finally, not only has Cahill been a machine in day games, so too has his entire team. With Saturday afternoon’s 6-2 blowout victory, Oakland improved to 26-11 in daytime action (no other team in baseball comes close). At the same time, Texas is just 13-16 in day games (with Lewis going 2-2 with a 4.85 ERA).
This price is just way too cheap to pass up with Cahill, who almost certainly will catch a break as Texas is expected to sit bopper Vladimir Guerrero.
4♦ OAKLAND
Karl Garrett
G-Man sitting on a nice total winner for Sunday, as I see the Padres-Diamondbacks having all kinds of trouble getting things started against Mat Latos and Joe Saunders.
Saunders has made a pair of starts in the National League, and he has allowed just 3 earned runs in 16 innings of senior circut work.
Latos has pitched 9 straight games in which he has allowed 2 earned runs or less, and his season ERA is a slim 2.47 this year.
These teams have played under the total in 3 of their 5 meetings in the desert this season, and the Padres have been under the total in 3 of their last 5, while the Diamondbacks have been under the posted price in 4 of their last 6 games overall.
G-Man sees plenty of nothing up on the Chase Field scoreboard today.
Padres-Diamondbacks under the total for Sunday.
3♦ UNDER
Derek Mancini
Solid Free Play winner with the Twins over the Indians 7-2 Saturday! This time around I'm backing the home dog, as bettors are hesistant to give the Orioles their due, but fact remains they present solid value in this situation.
First thing you notice is the overwhelming majority of bettors siding with the White Sox, and yet the line is dropping. This should immediately set off alarm bells, because that's not the movement you'd expect to see. While there's no arguing against the Orioles overall awful play this season, in the short-term, they are playing well, winners of 4 of their L5 games - which is significant. Every team is allowed to get "hot," even the O's and knowing when to jump on can be very profitable.
While White Sox backers love to tout Mark Buehrle's (10-8, 4.05 ERA) career numbers against Baltimore (2.91 ERA in 12 starts), he's being matched up against the one Orioles pitcher who can outpitch him in Jeremy Guthrie (5-11, 4.21 ERA). Guthrie is on fire, going 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in his L4 starts, and if ever he could shut down this Pale Hose offense, it would be during his current run. He's also been much more effective at Camden Yards of late, going 2-0 with a 3.04 ERA in his L4 home starts.
I know its never easy to bet a team like Baltimore, but if you know when to pick your spots, they can present tremendous value. Look for the O's to get back on track, as Guthrie outduels Buerhrle this afternoon. Baltimore (Guthrie) over the Chi. White Sox (Buehrle) Sunday.
2♦ BALITMORE
Tom Freese
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Padres at Diamondbacks
Prediction: under
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Arizona starter Joe Saunders has made 2 starts with the Diamondbacks this year allowing 3 runs total in those 2 starts. The Diamondbacks are 7-2-1 UNDER off a win and they are 6-2-1 UNDER their last 9 games vs. righty starters. Arizona is 5-0-1 UNDER their last 6 home games vs. righty starters. San Diego starter Mat Latos has allowed 3 or less runs in 15 of his last 16 starts. The Padres are 9-3 UNDER their last 12 road games vs. lefty starters. San Diego is 8-3 UNDER in the last 11 starts made by Latos and they are 4-1 UNDER after scoring 5 or more runs in their last game.
SPORTS WAGERS
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FLORIDA +1.02 over St. Louis
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Jeff Suppan favored on the road is incorrect and once again we find the Cardinals overpriced. Suppan’s career has about seven weeks left in it and maybe less. If the Cardinals are fighting for a playoff spot in the last two weeks of the season you will not see him again unless it’s in a mop up role and there’s no chance of him pitching in the playoffs. Five-year ERA and xERA are trending in a straight line to oblivion. HR’s allowed has gone from acute to chronic. First half stats were on life support but Suppan gives you innings and always takes his turn, like it's a good thing. Incidentally, in his last five starts, Suppan had an ERA of 5.44 but had a strand rate of 80% with every bounce going his way. That strand rate is an unsustainable one and thus, ERA will be heading south. Sean West is young and he’s talented. West made his MLB debut after only 64 IP above High-A ball and that guarantees MLB growing pains, even for the best prospects and a best prospect he is. West is a 6’ 8” lefty with improving control and an outstanding minor league record in day games. In three day games this season covering 18 IP he went 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA and a BAA of 1.97. His major league numbers are unimpressive to say the least and that’s why Suppan is favored. However, this really has nothing to do with wagering on West but everything to do with playing against Suppan and the overpriced Cards. Play: Florida +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
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San Francisco +1.24 over ATLANTA
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Man, the Giants bats have gone silent in this series but it’s not like the Braves are seeing beach balls either. In fact, both of these teams offenses have been rather anemic in this series but the big difference here is that the Giants have a big edge on the mound. Jonathan Sanchez has wicked stuff. When he’s on his game he’s as tough to hit as any pitcher in the Majors. When he’s throwing strikes and getting ahead in the count, the opposition has almost no shot. In four of his last seven stats he’s allowed one run or less and is coming off a six-inning, three hit masterpiece over the Rockies in Colorado. Sanchez has 27 k’s in his last 17 innings and overall he has 133 in 128 IP. His only problem is a lack of control but again, when he’s a pooch he’s worth the risk because nobody has better stuff. Derek Lowe is a one-pitch pitcher. If his slider isn’t working he’s useless. Current Giants have faced Lowe for a combined 137 AB’s and they’re hitting .299 off him. Lowe has allowed nine runs over his last 16 frames and is an absolute stretch to make it past the sixth inning. In no way does he have an edge in this matchup, as he’s always a risk to blow up. Play: San Francisco +1.24 (Risking 2 units).
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Colorado –1.01 over PITTSBURGH
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First off, the Pirates are 22-53 against right-handed pitchers and they’ll face one here they’ve never seen. Esmil Rogers gets the call-up to fill in for Aaron Cook, who was placed on the DL after his last start. Rogers has limited major-league experience. He’s pitched just 33 innings and has appeared in 14 games with just two of those coming as a starter. However, they both came last season and now he’s a year older and a bit more refined. He certainly has the ability to strike players out, as his 28 K’s in 33 major league innings and 53 K’s in 61 minor league innings will attest to. His control is much better than when he was up last season and in fact, he only walked 19 batters in those 61 minor-league IP. Paul Maholm pitching for the Pirates should not be favored over anyone. This is bad marriage, as Maholm is garbage on a hill. He’s allowed 29 hits and 16 ER over his last 17 innings. Overall his WHIP is 1.52 and anything over 1.50 or close to 1.50 is screaming for trouble. The Rockies just saw him 10 days ago and knocked him out in the fifth inning after they scored their eighth run. Maholm’s BAA over the last two weeks is .436 and anytime we can lay anywhere near a penny against this guy it has to be considered a good wager. Play: Colorado –1.01 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
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LOS ANGELES –1½ +1.17 over Washington
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The only surprising thing about Jason Marquis getting the start here is that he’s not pitching for the Cardinals. Marquis is making his first start in four months after coming off the DL. In his first three starts of the year back in April, he allowed 20 runs and 18 hits in 8.1 innings. He walked six and struck out three and don’t expect a big turnaround. Marquis was a stiff before and nothing has changed. The Dodgers will score some runs and they’ll very likely score five or more. Meanwhile, Ted Lilly is well suited for this park. Actually Lilly is well suited for any park. He’s been one of the most consistently good pitchers this league has ever seen. All Lilly did in his Dodger debut was allow one run, two hits and no walks over seven innings of a 2-1 win over NL West-leading San Diego on Tuesday night. Expect more of the same here. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.17 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
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1 Unit on San Diego Padres -143
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After dropping the first two games of their series with the Diamondbacks, expect the Padres to bounce back strong this afternoon. In fact, the Padres are 5-0 in their last 5 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. They are also 10-1 in their last 11 Sunday games and 9-2 in their last 11 during game 3 of a series. They will be in good hands with Latos. The Padres are 8-1 in Latos' last 9 starts, 6-0 in his last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game, 5-0 in his last 5 starts during game 3 of a series and 7-0 in his last 7 road starts vs. a team with a losing record. The Diamondbacks are just 7-19 in their last 26 during game 3 of a series. While Saunders has been good since coming over, the Padres will gladly welcome a southpaw to the mound. The Padres have been at their best against lefty starters this season, and they enter today's contest at 7-3 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter. Pound the Padres.
Black Widow
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1* on Boston Red Sox +125
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Josh Beckett has returned to form, going 2-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.820 WHIP in his last 3 starts for Boston. A.J. Burnett has been off the mark all season, going 9-9 with a 4.93 ERA this year. Burnett is 0-2 in his last 3 starts against Boston, yielding 20 earned runs in 14.2 innings for a whopping 12.27 ERA. Take the Red Sox on the Money Line.
Jack Jones
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Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick : Colorado Rockies
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The Colorado Rockies are not about to lose this series to Pittsburgh. Yes, they have lost 2 of the first 3, but I fully expect them to bounce back in a big way Sunday as they take on Paul Maholm and the Pirates. Maholm is 7-9 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 22 starts this season. The lefty is 5-6 with a 5.05 ERA at home, and 1-2 with an 8.31 ERA and 2.077 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Over that time, he has allowed 16 earned runs and 36 base runners in 17.1 innings. It even included a start at Colorado, where he allowed 8 earned runs and 14 base runners in 5.1 innings of a 3-9 loss to the Rockies.
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In fact, Maholm has never been able to figure out this Colorado line-up. Maholm is 1-5 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.752 WHIP In 7 career starts vs. Colorado. Rockies hitters are licking their chops at an opportunity to face Maholm, especially after their heartbreaking 7-8 defeat last night in extra innings. The Rockies came back from 3 runs down in the 9th to tie it, took a 2-run lead in the 10th, but gave up a 3-run walk-off home run to Pedro Alvarez in the bottom of the 10th to lose by one. The Rockies are 15-4 against the money line after allowing 8 runs or more this season. The Rockies are 14-3 in their last 17 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Colorado is 12-4 in their last 16 games during Game 4 of a series, while Pittsburgh is 31-66 in their last 97 Game 4's. The Pirates are also 14-43 in their last 57 Sunday games. Bet Colorado Sunday.
Bryan Leonard
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Los Angeles Angels
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Even without the suspended Torii Hunter the Angels continue to rake Detroit pitching. Now they face a struggling Rick Porcello who has severely dropped off from his rookie campaign. Last time out he allowed the White Sox seven earned runs in just 4.1 innings of work. In three lifetime starts against the Angels he's been pounded for 15 earned runs in 21 innings.
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The Angels start young Trevor Bell who has pitched on the same level as Porcello but with much more room for improvement. He takes on a Tiger team who has scored more than four runs just once in their last eight games.
Detroit is on a 6-20 run right now as they have fallen out of divisional contention. They don't deserve to be favored here with a shaky starter on the mound.
Tony Stoffo
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White Sox vs. Orioles
Play: Under 8.5
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The first 2 games in this series have been low scoring affairs, and I definitely can see more of the same here today with Buehrle facing Guthrie. Mark Buehrle is coming off of 2 road starts where he has given up only 3 runs, and 11 hits in 16+ innings ptiched. Add in the fact that the Orioles have not faired well against lefties this season with a .246 Avg. and only .300 OBP you can see how Buehrle comes with another solid start here today. While with Jeremy Guthrie looking sharp in his last 3 start allowing just 5 earned runs in 21 innings pitched resulting in a 2.14 ERA and 0.857 WHIP and can also see how the White Sox will have trouble scoring runs in this spot. Plus add in the fact that the Under is 7-1 in the Orioles last 8 games vs. a left-handed starter makes so another solid release on the under here today.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -128
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There's no doubt the Tigers are struggling, but I like them to dig down deep and pull off a win this afternoon. They'll be lacking no motivation after yesterday's embarrassing loss. Plus, they are a strong 10-3 in their last 13 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The Angels are still just 5-14 in their last 19 road games and 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. While Porcello has struggled, I trust him a lot more than the Angels' Bell in this spot. Porcello is the more experienced pitcher, and the Tigers have won 2 of his 3 career starts against the Halos. Take the Tigers as they get back to playing the kind of ball they've been playing at home most of the season.
Dave Price
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1 Unit on Chicago White Sox -122
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The Sox are an impressive 39-14 in their last 53 overall, including 28-10 in their last 38 games following a win. They are also 11-2 in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Plus, the Sox have the edge on the hill with Buehrle. They are are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and 7-3 in his last 10 starts vs. Orioles. Meanwhile, the Orioles are only 4-11 in Guthrie's last 15 starts when he goes with only 4 days of rest. Take the White Sox.