SPORTS ADVISORS
Boston (62-47) at N.Y. Yankees (68-42)
The Yankees send veteran lefty Andy Pettitte (9-6, 4.35 ERA) to the hill at Yankee Stadium looking to complete a four-game sweep of the rival Red Sox, who hand the ball to southpaw Jon Lester (9-7, 3.79).
New York knocked off Boston 5-0 on Saturday behind the pitching of C.C. Sabathia, coming on the heels of Friday’s 2-0, 15-inning win. After losing nine straight to the Red Sox, the Yankees have now won three in a row against Boston and seven straight overall. They are also on runs of 53-25 overall, 46-18 at home, 21-7 against A.L East rivals and 38-18 on Sundays.
Boston has followed up a four-game winning streak by dropping its last five, all on the road, falling to 3-10 in its last 13 as a visitor. Additionally, the Red Sox have lost eight in a row to teams with a winning record, but they’re still on positive runs of 27-15 in divisional play and 8-2 in the fourth game of a series. Also, they’re still 9-3 in the last 12 clashes with the Yankees.
With Lester starting, the BoSox are on a slew of positive streaks, including 49-23 overall, 7-3 against the A.L. East, 20-7 against teams with a winning record, 10-3 on Sundays and 6-1 when he pitches after a team loss. On Tuesday in Tampa, Lester allowed just one run on three hits in six innings, striking out 10 and walking two, but it wasn’t enough as the Sox lost 4-2.
Boston has won four of Lester’s last five outings against the Yankees, including two this season as he’s allowed a combined five runs in 13 innings to the Bronx Bombers. He pitched in New York on May 4 and gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 6-4 Boston victory.
Pettitte has looked good in his last two outings, including Tuesday in Toronto when he gave up just one run on four hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 5-3 victory. However, against Boston he’s been roughed up a bit, allowing four runs or more in four of his last five starts, including an April 26 start that saw him allow four runs (three earned) in six inning of a 4-1 loss.
With Pettitte on the hill, New York has lost four of his last five as a favorite and four of his last five against teams with a winning record, but it is on runs of 78-37 when he’s a home chalk and 41-20 when he faces A.L. East competition.
Boston has stayed under the posted number in seven of Lester’s last 11 starts overall and four of his last five roadies, plus as a team the Red Sox are on “under” runs of 12-3 as ‘dogs, 11-3 as road ‘dogs, 17-7-1 on Sundays and 10-4 on the road. When Pettitte pitches, the Yankees are on “under” streaks of 38-16-2 overall, 41-16-1 as a favorite, 7-1 at home, 8-1-1 on Sundays and 23-9-1 as a home favorite, while as a team New York is on “over” runs of 4-1 against southpaws, 4-1 on Sundays and 5-2-1 overall.
Finally, in this rivalry, the “under” is 8-3-2 in the last 13 overall, but the “over” is 8-3 in Pettitte’s last 11 outings against the Red Sox.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Texas (61-48) at L.A. Angels (65-43)
Texas sends lefty Derek Holland (4-7, 5.60 ERA) to the mound opposite the Angels’ John Lackey (7-4, 3.96) in the rubber match of a three-game set between the top two teams in the A.L. West in Anaheim.
Los Angeles evened the series Saturday with a 3-2 victory behind the pitching of Jered Weaver. The Angels have been the hottest team in baseball the past two months, going 36-14 in their last 50 games overall and 20-9 in their last 29 at home (9-3 in the last 12). They’re on additional runs of 8-3 against teams with a winning record, 41-13 in the third game of a series and 24-9 on Sundays.
Texas is still 13-7 in its last 20 overall and is on further upticks of 10-3 against opponents that have a winning record, 4-1 on Sundays and 27-14 against A.L. West foes. However, the Rangers are just 9-21 in their last 30 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
The Rangers are 8-3 against the Angels this season and 10-4 in the last 13 clashes dating to 2008, and they have won six of the last nine meetings in Anaheim.
Holland is just 1-3 on the road with a 4.46 ERA and he was hit hard in Oakland on Tuesday, giving up four runs (three earned) on four hits in 4 1/3 innings of a 6-0 loss. He’s allowed four runs or more in seven of his last 10 starts and the Rangers are just 3-7 in those 10. They are 0-4 in his last four roadies and 1-4 in his last five as a ‘dog.
Lackey seems to be regaining his form, going 2-0 in his last three outings with a 2.38 ERA. He allowed four runs (three earned) on five hits in eight innings in a 5-4 loss in Chicago on Tuesday, but the Angels had won his four previous outings, in which he allowed a combined five runs in 30 2/3 innings. Last time he saw Texas, he was shelled for six runs on nine hits in 4 2/3 innings of an 8-5 loss on July 7.
With Lackey pitching, Los Angeles is on runs of 7-1 in the third game of a series, 20-8 on Sunday and 19-8 when he faces squads from the A.L. West.
With Holland on the hill, Texas is on “under” runs of 7-1-1 overall and 5-1 against teams with a winning record, while as a team, the Rangers are on “under” streaks of 39-15-2 overall, 36-17-5 on Sundays, 37-16-2 against teams with a winning record and 8-1 in their last nine as a road ‘dog.
The Angels have stayed under the number in 31 of Lackey’s last 45 home starts against winning teams, but they’ve topped the total in four of his last six overall and each of his last four at home. As a team, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 22-6-1 at home, 23-6-2 as a favorite, 41-15-4 overall, 20-8-1 as a home chalk and 7-4 against the A.L. West.
In this rivalry, the “over” is 5-2 in the last seven overall, 4-1 in Lackey’s last five at home against Texas and 5-3 in the last seven head-to-head clashes in Los Angeles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS
NFL PRESEASON
Buffalo (0-0) vs. Tennessee (0-0)
(at Canton, Ohio)
The 2009 NFL preseason kicks off in Canton, Ohio, as Bills battle the Titans in the annual Hall of Fame Game.
Buffalo went 2-2 straight-up (SU) and 3-1 against the spread (ATS) in the 2008 preseason. The Bills have split their four preseason contests each of the last two summers and three times in the last four years. Under coach Dick Jauron, Buffalo is 5-7 SU and 7-5 ATS, including 3-0 ATS (1-2 SU) in preseason openers.
Tennessee won three of its four exhibition contests for the second straight year in 2008, but went just 1-3 ATS. In fact, Jeff Fisher’s squad has gone 1-3 ATS three times in the last four summers. On the bright side, the Titans have won three consecutive preseason openers (2-1 ATS).
Jauron said all of his starters will see some action today, including QB Trent Edwards, but only for a couple of series. Edwards would be followed by backup Ryan Fitzpatrick, Gibran Hamdan and rookie Matt Baker.
Fisher hinted at a similar game plan for his starters. Quarterback Kerry Collins is expected to play a few series with Vince Young (29-of-64 for 290 yards in the preseason last year) taking over and playing into the third quarter. Young will most likely be followed by Patrick Ramsey with a possibility that Alex Mortensen might see some action.
The Bills have been a moneymaker as a preseason underdog in recent years, going 10-1-1 ATS since 2004, including 8-0 ATS when catching points over the past four summers.
The Redskins crushed the Colts 30-16 as a 4½-point underdog in last year’s Hall of Fame Game, making the underdog 2-1-1 ATS the last four years in this contest.
The “over” is 6-3 in the Titan’s last nine preseason games, but the under is 7-2 in Buffalo’s last nine exhibition battles.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO
DUNKEL
Boston at NY Yankees
The Red Sox look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 6-1 record in Jon Lester's last 7 starts following a team loss in the previous game. Boston is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110).
Game 901-902: Florida at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Johnson) 14.518; Philadelphia (Moyer) 15.861
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+120); Under
Game 903-904: St. Louis at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Pineiro) 13.997; Pittsburgh (Duke) 14.343
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+165); Over
Game 905-906: Arizona at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Petit) 15.632; Washington (Martin) 16.338
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Over
Game 907-908: Milwaukee at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.559; Houston (Rodriguez) 15.009
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-110); Under
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 14.962; Colorado (Hammel) 16.197
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+115); Under
Game 911-912: Cincinnati at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Harang) 14.420; San Francisco (Cain) 15.616
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-175); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-175); Over
Game 913-914: NY Mets at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Santana) 14.358; San Diego (Stauffer) 14.825
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Over
Game 915-916: Atlanta at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Vazquez) 15.420; LA Dodgers (Stults) 15.076
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 917-918: Baltimore at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 15.590; Toronto (Halladay) 13.787
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Toronto (-275); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+245); Over
Game 919-920: Boston at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.992; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.557
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110); Under
Game 921-922: Minnesota at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.070; Detroit (Washburn) 15.549
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Over
Game 923-924: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Huff) 17.088; White Sox (Contreras) 15.106
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+145); Over
Game 925-926: Oakland at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 13.424; Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.213
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under
Game 927-928: Tampa Bay at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Kazmir) 14.712; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.067
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+125); Over
Game 929-930: Texas at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.480; LA Angels (Lackey) 16.466
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-175); Over
WNBA
Chicago at Detroit
The Sky are coming off yesterday's win at Atlanta and look to build on their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games with 0 days of rest. Chicago is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Shock favored by just 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7).
Game 651-652: Washington at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.761; Connecticut 112.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 1 1/2; 154 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 4 1/2; 152 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Over
Game 653-654: Chicago at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 110.139; Detroit 110.828
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1; 148
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 7; 150 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+7); Under
Game 655-656: San Antonio at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 109.014; Minnesota 114.819
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 6; 155
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 2 1/2; 159
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-2 1/2); Under
Rocketman
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Minnesota @ Detroit
Play: Detroit
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Minnesota is 54-56 overall this year while Detroit comes in with a 58-51 overall record this season. Minnesota skunked Detroit 11-0 last night so I feel like Detroit will be seeking major revenge today. Detroit is 14-6 this year at home when the money line is -100 to -125. Minnesota has lost 6 of their last 8 games overall. Detroit has won 4 of their last 6 games overall. Detroit bullpen has a 3.62 ERA at home this year. Washburn's record doesn't give him justice this year as he has pitched well. Washburn is 8-7 with a 2.93 ERA overall this year, 5-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home and 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA his last 3 starts. Washburn has a 3.05 ERA overall vs Minnesota since 1997. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit today!
Alex Smart
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Chicago Sky @ Detroit Shock
PICK: Detroit Shock
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The Chicago Sky (11-11) played a grueling hard fought game against the Atlanta Dream last night winning by a 82-80 count. That confrontation will have the Sky on tired legs and at a disadvantage. The Detroit Shock (7-11) on the other hand are on one days rest after a heart breaking 70-66 loss to Washington on Friday , and very motivated to bounce back and get a much needed win.
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The Sky have lost 9 of their L/12 road games this season, with two of those wins coming against Atlanta. Meanwhile, the defending league champions the Shock have not been consistent this season, thanks in part to some early season injuries and the departure of long time coach Bill Laimbeer 3 games into the current campaign.
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Despite of the Shocks disappointing season, they still have the talent to come up with one last attempt at making a late season run, for a chance at a play off spot. A lot hinges on the out come of this one game. With that said I'm betting they come out here and play their best contest of the season for a win and more importantly as far as we are concerned a cover .
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Projected score: Detroit 81 Chicago 70
Nelly
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Colorado Rockies + over Chicago Cubs
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Randy Wells has been a savior for the Cubs rotation and Chicago is 8-1 in his last nine starts. Well does not have dominant stuff but he has been efficient and effective. He could get into trouble at Coor's Field however as a lot of balls will carry a bit more and potentially create problems. Wells has been much less of a groundball pitcher on the road and he gives up a decent amount of hits despite a great 2.73 ERA. The Chicago bullpen has struggled recently with a 6.82 ERA over the past ten games. Colorado has had bullpen issues this season but not lately, with a 1.23 ERA in the past ten contests. Neither offense has been lighting it up of late but Colorado starter Jason Hammel owns an impressive 3.08 strikeout-to-walk ratio and in eight of his last twelve starts he allowed three or fewer runs. Colorado is 10-4 in his last 14 starts and he owns a 3.41 ERA in day games. Chicago is surging but the Rockies have been the better team all season and Colorado is greatly undervalued at home as Chicago is just 24-31 on the road this season.
Vernon Croy
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Take the Detroit Tigers on the Moneyline
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This pick falls into one of my top MLB systems and the Twins are just 0-8 in Scott Baker's (9-7, 4.59 ERA) last 8 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Baker was hit hard in his only start against the Tigers this season allowing 7 hits and 5 earned runs over just 6 innings and I look for the Tigers to hit him hard Sunday afternoon. The Twins are just 2-6 in their last 8 games overall and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 games in game 3 of a series. The Tigers are 15-4 in their last 19 home games against a right hand starter and Jarrod Washburn (8-7, 2.93 ERA) has pitched solid overall this season so I look for him to bounce back after a rough outing against the Orioles. Washburn has owned the Twins this season allowing just 1 earned run over 2 starts (14 innings) against them and I look for him to have a solid start Sunday afternoon. Take the Detroit Tigers Sunday afternoon.
Brad Diamond Sports
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Play: Toronto -1½ runs over Baltimore
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The Roy Halladay trade deadline scenario for all those involved was a real joke. The one club that came out a winner was the Phillies with the acquisition of Cliff Lee from the Indians. After losing to New York 5-3 this week, Halladay has now lost rare back-to-back games. Still, the right-hander is 19-4 life time versus the O’s. In addition, the Blue Jays are 11-1 with Halladay in his last 12 home starts versus the last place Orioles. With Baltimore 16-49 on Sunday’s, I’ll support laying the additional juice today.
Red Dog Sports
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New York Mets at San Diego
Play the San Diego Padres
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The Padres start Stauffer, who has given up just 3,1,2,1 and 2 runs in his last 5 starts. The game is at San Diego and they are facing Johan Santana, who has struggled this season. I am suggesting a 1 unit play on the Padres +123 at home.
Marc Lawrence
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Play: Chicago Cubs w/Wells vs Hammel
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The Cubs and Rockies wrap up their three-games series Sunday afternoon when Randy Wells matches serves with Tom Stauffer at Coors Field. Wells has delivered the goods in 8 of his last 9 team starts and is riding a 5-game road win streak on the road as well. Meanwhile, Stauffer is 5-11 in his last 16 team starts , including 1-4 his last 5 at home. With Chicago owning the upper hand in this series with 12 wins in its last 17 meetings with Colorado, look for the Cubs to mover to 12-6 on Sundays here today.
Tom Freese
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Cincinnati at San Francisco
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Cincinnati is 15-7-1 UNDER with Aaron Harang vs. NL West teams and they are 21-8-1 UNDER when Harang pitches game 3 of a series. The Reds are 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games as underdogs and they are 7-2-1 UNDER vs. a team with a winning record. San Francisco is 21-8-2 UNDER their last 31 games as favorites and they are 35-16-4 UNDER vs. a team with a losing record. The Giants are 6-0 UNDER with Matt Cain if he has 5 days of rest and they are 5-0 UNDER in the last 5 starts made by Cain overall. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
Frank Jordan
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Buffalo Bills vs. Tennessee Titans
Play: Buffalo Bills +3
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Buffalo has retooled as they picked up Terrell Owens as they look to improve on a disappointing 4th place finish and a 7-9 record. Tennessee had a break out year with the running game complimenting Kerry Collins as they won the division with a 13-3 record. Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to get the bulk of the playing time early on as he puts up some points and outduels Vince Young as they Bills win the Hall of Fame game with Bruce Smith and Ralph Wilson getting enshrined. Play Buffalo
Carlo Campanella
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St Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
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St. Louis took Game #1 in this 3 game series, 6-4 yesterday and is a very strong road Favorite in Pittsburgh for Sunday's Game #2 as they start Joel Pineiro on the mound. Pineiro has won his last 3 trips to the mound and will now face a slumping Pittsburgh club that's lost 10 of their last 12 games. He should have plenty of run support as the Pirates pitching and defense has fallen apart, allowing 4 Runs or more in 8 STRAIGHT games! Expect those troubles to continue as we find Pittsburgh at 2-17 during their last 19 efforts as a home Dog between +150 & +200.
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7* Play On St. Louis
Rob Vinciletti
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks
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Arizona fits a nice system here that is 29-12.What we want to do is play on road favorites off a road favored loss at -140 or higher that lost by 2 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs,vs an opponent off a home dog win that scored 5+ runs and had 5 + hits.This system has cashed 29 of 41 times.If our opponent left 10 or more on base the system tops out at 8-1.Arizona is 12-4 vs losing teams in the second half and should avoid the sweep here today.In the pitching matchup they have Y.Petit and he has been coming on of late with a 2.95 era over his last 3 starts.Washington counters with J.D.Martin and he has struggled with a 6.97 home era.The Nationals have shown they have not thrown in the towel playing hard for their new manager.However look for the 7 game win streak to end today.In late phone action were 3-0 the last few days.
Karl Garrett
Florida at PHILADELPHIA +110
G-Man brings a 20-10 comp play run the 30 days into action this Sunday.
Have to go with the Phillies to avoid the broom at home against the Marlins.
Jamie Moyer has been a major thorn in Florida's side as the Phillies are a whopping 13-2 the last 15 times he has started against Florida. Most recently, Moyer worked 7 scoreless in a July win over Florida down in Miami.
Moyer is just 4-6 at home with an over 7 ERA, but it is hard to overlook the numbers I just listed above, so I won't.
Josh Johnson is 10-2 this season for the Marlins, but he has been showing some cracks in his armor, as the righty has allowed 10 runs his last 20 innings of works, but is 2-0 to show for it.
The bottom line is that I just don't see the Phillies getting swept on their home field.
G-Man going with old man river, Jamie Moyer to work his magic against the Marlins once again.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Sports Gambling Hotline
Boston at NY YANKEES -125
Saturday comp play winner on the Padres, now 14-3-1 the last 18 days with our comp plays.
Boy, oh boy, talk about a change of events. The Red Sox came to the Bronx on Thursday having won ALL 8 season series meetings against the Yankees, but 3 days later, and the Yankees have built a 5 1/2-game lead in the East.
They are also riding a 6 game win streak, while the BoSox have now lost their last 5.
Boston has also been held without a run in their last 24 innings of play!
Andy Pettitte's last 2 starts have seen just 2 earned runs cross in his last 13 innings of work.
Jon Lester will try to salavge this lost weekend for Boston, and while the southpaw is 3-0 over his last 5 starts against New York, it is hard to make a case for him when you can't count on the Red Sox to deliver at the plate.
If Boston can win 8 straight over the Yankees, New York can certainly win 4 straight over the Red Sox.
Things are just going to well for the Yanks right now, and we are all about riding the Pinstripers into the winner's circle once again tonight.
Play on the Yanks.
3♦ NY YANKEES