LT Profits
The San Diego Padres have taken the first three games of this four-game series vs. the New York Mets, but we look for the Mets to salvage the final game behind their ace Johan Santana.
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Even in what may be an off year, most pitchers would be very happy to be 12-8 with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP, which is where Santana stands after 145 innings this year. Expect to see the vintage Santana today though, as the Padres are batting a disgusting .197 vs. left-handed pitching here at home this season, and Santana has already dominated them twice in two starts since coming to the Mets last season, allowing three runs in 13 innings.
The Padres counter with Tim Stauffer, and while he has looked good in five starts this year, he is coming off of his roughest outing in his last start vs. the Atlanta Braves where he allowed 10 baserunners in five innings. Stauffer has been a disappointment since being a first-round draft pick way back when, and we feel his last start should begin his descent back to mediocrity.
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Finally, are the Padres really good enough to sweep a four-game series against anyone? We think not and will take our chances with the Mets and one of the best pitchers in the league on the Run Line today.
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Pick: Mets -1.5
Tommy Gill
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Tennessee Titans -2.5 2 units
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Can't believe I am doing this but I am going to attempt to bet NFL Preseason this year and with the first game coming up this Sunday I guess it is a good time than any to start on the handicapping of the NFL. The Bills have lost alot of the offensive line this offseason and they brought in a few free agents like TO. I see the Titans are going to have more depth overall on defense this year and offense they have more depth at RB and Offesive line in this game. I don't see a big scoring game on either side here either with two mediocre and run first offenses but I will trust Vince Young to take this game and give us a win here.
Michael Cannon
Florida at PHILADELPHIA +105
Take the Phillies for the home win over the Marlins.
I know this is a tough spot because Josh Johnson is an absolute stud for Florida, but Philadelphia’s Jamie Moyer has had nothing but success against the Marlins in his career and pitching at Citizens Bank Park should give him the advantage needed for the Phillies to win here.
Moyer is 13-2 with a 2.83 ERA in his career against the Marlins. The left-hander has also alternated bad outings with good ones over the past two months, allowing 26 runs in 26 innings in five outings while posting a 1.41 ERA in the other five.
Like I mentioned before, Johnson is a stud for Florida but Philadelphia’s big bat, Ryan Howard, is 7-for-19 with two homers in his career against the Marlins right-hander.
Take the Phillies as they grab the home win.
3♦ PHILADELPHIA
John Ryan
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Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Twins as they face the Tigers set to start at 1:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 34-15 making 19.7 units since 2003. Play on road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 after allowing 1 run or less facing an opponent after allowing 7 runs or more 2 straight games. Twins are 24-12 (+16.6 Units) against the money line versus a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start over the last 2 seasons; 7-0 (+8.0 Units) against the money line after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. Tigers are just 11-25 (-14.5 Units) against the money line versus an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better over the last 2 seasons; 2-9 (-7.7 Units) against the money line after allowing 9 runs or more this season. Take the Twins.
King Creole Sports
This is a game that I normally do NOT wager on. But there ARE plenty of people who WILL be making a bet on Sunday night as we welcome the first game of the 2009 season. SO.... some of tonight's ATS and OU tendencies and patterns are 'on the house' from KING CREOLE:
Since 1999, HALL OF FAME game favorites are 6-4-1 ATS (and 3-1-1 ATS last 5 years)....
Since 1999, the HALL OF FAME game has gone 6-5 O/U....
Average game line in the HALL OF FAME game has been -2.7 points since 1999....
Average OU line in the HALL OF FAME game has been 34.3....
Average total points scored in the HALL OF FAME game has been 34.1....
Now let's look at both of tonight's teams:
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS in Game One of the pre-season the last 6 years... and 1-5 O/U (average total points: only 24.8 PPG).
TENNESSEE is 6-4-1 ATS in Game One of the pre-season the last 11 years (1-3 ATS last 4).... and 2-4 O/U in last 6 years (average total points: only 28.7 PPG).
Since the 2002 season, ALL NFL exhibition GAME ONES with an OU line of 32 or less points have gone 3-7 O/U... with an average of 26.7 points per game.
Bryan Leonard
3* Florida at Philadelphia
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The Marlins are a young free swinging club that has troubles with crafty veterans. Which is why we are a big fan of Jamie Moyer when these two clubs tangle. Because he's a soft tosser and an old one at that he's often overlooked by the general public. But we receive extreme handicapping value when he faces the Marlins.
Look at how Moyer has matched up against Florida the past few years. This season he's faced them twice holding them to a .208 batting average and .250 slugging percentage. Last year the veteran faced Florida five times holding them to a .216 average and .302 slugging percentage. In 2007 it was more of the same with a .217 batting average and .435 slugging mark. Even as far back as 2006 he held Florida to a .239 batting average. Simply put the Marlins are not built to hit a pitcher like Jamie Moyer and to get him as an underdog at home is simply a bargain we don't pass up.
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Philadelphia hits .23 points better at home vs right-handed starters than lefties. They are 13-2 in Moyer's last 15 starts against the Fish. Josh Johnson has allowed 3 earned runs or more in 4 of his last 5 starts and he's facing a Phillies club who has won 16 of 22 at home. With Florida winning the first two games of this series we can't expect the host to be swept today. Look for the old crafty veteran to salvage one game for Philadelphia.
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PLAY PHILADELPHIA
Triple Threat Sports
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Hall of Fame Game Under
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Bill are 0-3 to the Under in preseason openers for Dick Jauron, and the league is 2-5 to the Under in the Hall of Fame game when they fit a specific parameter that is in effect for today in regards to the type of teams participating. We look for a low scoring affiar today.
Scott Rickenbach
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners
PICK: Under 8.5
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The Rays are 23-11 to the under in day games this season. Tampa Bay is also 9-5 to the under when the total is an 8 or 8.5 in road games this season. Seattle is also 23-11 to the under in day games, just like Tampa Bay is. Also, the Mariners are 16-10 to the under when they are at home and the total is an 8 or 8.5 this season. Seattle’s Ryan Rowland-Smith has only given up 18 hits in his 21.1 innings this season. His only day game start stayed under the total as he battled with the Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays in a 3-2 pitchers duel.
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Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir is certainly back in the zone again. His last start went over the total but it was another fine outing for the southpaw. Also, Kazmir’s six prior starts had gone 5-1 to the under! He’s allowed three earned runs or less in five of his last seven starts. The left-hander has allowed just 38 hits in his last 41.1 innings of work. The first two games in this series have flown over the total but this one absolutely has the makings of a pitchers duel. Consider a small play on UNDER the total in Seattle on Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -125
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I look for the Rays to continue their run of strong play this afternoon behind Scott Kazmir, who has dominated the Mariners in his career. Kazmir 3-0 when starting against Seattle with an ERA of 1.53 and a WHIP of 1.023 lifetime. Plus, the Rays are 4-1 in Kazmir's last 5 starts and 25-11 in his last 36 starts as a favorite. In addition, the M's have struggled severely against southpaw starters, going just 1-6 in their last 7 games vs. a left-handed starter. I'll take the Rays this afternoon.
JR TIPS
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Red Sox at Yankees
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The New York Yankees will go for the sweep against the Yankees and try to beat Jon Lester for the first time, a starter they have never beaten.New York (68-42) who entered this series 0-8 against Boston (62-47) has used outstanding pitching to stretch its win streak to six games as the Boston Red Sox have failed to score in 24 innings after being shut out for the second straight game after losing 5-0 on Saturday. Lester (9-7, 3.79 ERA) is 3-0 with a 3.43 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees with 45 strikeouts over 39 1/3 innings. The left-hander is 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA with 17 strikeouts in two starts against them this year while Alex Rodriguez is 1 for 11 (.091) against Lester, and second baseman Robinson Cano is 3 for 17 (.176).Lester is 4-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last eight starts and he only gave up one run over six innings Tuesday in a 4-2, 13-inning loss at Tampa Bay.Pettitte (9-6, 4.35) will try to win two straight starts after he ended a season-high five-game stretch without a victory Tuesday. Pettitte had been 0-3 with a 5.34 ERA in his winless stretch before he only allowed one run over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-3 win over Toronto and Roy Halladay as he improved to 8-2 with a 3.55 ERA in 15 night starts. Pettitte is 3-4 with a 5.76 ERA in 10 starts and 11 overall appearances against the Red Sox. His lone outing this year was at Boston on April 26, and he gave up four runs over six innings in a 4-1 loss.The yankees have a chance to extend the distance tonight as manager Joe Girardi said, " any time you have a chance to do that, they're really important games. This game will be a battle as the pitchers will be at their highest comjpetitive level knowing the importance for both team as it will be like a playoff game.
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TAKE UNDER 9 1/2
GREG SHAKER
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Oakland Athletics at Kansas City Royals
Play: Over 8.5
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A very good combination of a Royals pitcher not in good form, a Royals Bullpen that does not even know what good form means, a Royals Team that has hit Lefty Pitching very well and two teams that have nothing to look forward to but play out the season. That last one means that managing games will be lax and perhaps some throwers might be thrown to the wolves with both Pens being very stretched due to the last few days of activity. Hochevar is still showing good stuff and that is one of the reasons why we have such a low line for this one. He is making mistakes in the K Zone though and he has payed dearly for that with 3 Dingers allowed over his last 3 games. Hochevar has not liked throwing at these A's and is 0-2 with an 18.90 ERA lifetime against Oakland. He allowed eight runs and seven hits over two innings of a 12-3 loss at Oakland on May 12. Kansas City is hitting the ball. The Royals have registered 10 or more hits in five of six games, including 17 on Saturday, tying their season high in runs. They are on a current 6-0 OVER Streak and it has not all been about their hitting. Have I mentioned yet that KC's Bullpen is Piss Poor? Wait a minute! The A's are hitting that ball as well. They are playing an enormous amount of OVERS recently with 17 of their 22 doing just that. Are you ready for some Trends? OVER is 8-0 the last 8 times Oakland has faced a Righty. OVER is 4-0 the last 4 times KC has faced a Southpaw. The fact is, both squads are posturing very well for this one as both are in their best hitting situations. Have I mentioned yet that KC's Bullpen reaks of Rotten Hereford Cattle Carcus The Homeplate Ump is pretty much neutral for this game, the wind is our friend today, blowing out to leftcenter. And, the KC Bullpen is....oh never mind..