Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday July, 1

Marc Lawrence

Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Washington Nationals

The Nationals and Braves wrap up a three-game set when Gio Gonzalez opposes Tim Hudson in the rubber match of this series Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. Gonzalez has been superb away from the nation's capitol this season, coming up big in seven of his eight team starts. He's also 1-0 in this park with a neat 2.57 ERA. Meanwhile, Hudson has struggled more at home as opposed to on the road this campaign where his ERA at Turner Field (4.69) is nearly two and a half runs worse than on the road (2.34). Back the value dog here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Washington.

David Chan

Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays
PICK: Los Angeles Angels

The Angels' (43-35) CJ Wilson (9-4, 2.36 ERA) is set to square off against the Jays' (40-38) Aaron Laffey (0-0, 1.80 ERA) on the mound this afternoon.

Wilson was dominant in his last start, giving up one run off six hits over seven frames in his team's 7-3 victory over the Orioles on Tuesday; he finished with two walks and two K's. Wilson has arguably been the hottest starter in the league over the last month and a half, going 5-0 with a 1.30 ERA over his last seven outings. He's amassed 34 strikeouts to just 16 walks during that span.

And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, Wilson will be throwing with the added confidence today in knowing that he's already dominated the Jays this year, giving up two runs over eight frames in the win on May 5th.

Laffey looked good in his first start of the year, going six scoreless frames vs. Boston last Tuesday; he gave up three hits, but his bullpen let him down. In five appearances this year, the southpaw has yet to pick up a decision. The 27-year old has been pressed into the starting rotation because of a rash of injuries.

The Angels have lost the first two games of this series, and getting their "ace" on the mound is just what the doctor ordered to stop the mini-slide.

Whenever we can get a pitcher of Wilson's caliber at what I feel is a fantastic price, then it's time to make the books pay. You may want to consider a second look at the Angels to bounce back in the final game of this three game set!

Sean Murphy

Montreal @ Calgary
PICK: Over

This has been a high-scoring series in recent years, with the 'over' going a perfect 4-0 in four meetings over the last two seasons. All four of those games surpassed the total we're dealing with this week, with two of those reaching at least 67 total points.

While past results aren't always a good predictor of the future, I do believe we're in for more of the same between these two high-powered offenses on Sunday.

The Alouettes don't rebuild, they simply reload, and I certainly expect that to be the case here in 2012.

2011 was truly a disappointment for this franchise, as the Als finished second place in the East Division and failed to make it out of the first round of the playoffs, suffering a shocking loss to the Ti-Cats at home.

Offensively, the Als turned in another banner season, leading the league in points per game and total yards per game. They shouldn't miss a beat in 2012, with most of the key pieces back in the mix, including ageless wonder Anthony Calvillo under center.

It's the Montreal defense that concerns me. They underwent a major overhaul on that side of the football in the offseason, and it will undoubtedly take some time for them to round into form. The Stampeders are probably one of the last teams they want to be facing this week, but it is what it is, and I think the Als will come in knowing they're going to have to score in bunches to win this game.

Calgary was just behind Montreal in most offensive categories a year ago, and should be even better in that regard here in 2012. Drew Tate is now the unquestioned leader at quarterback, with veteran Henry Burris moving on to Hamilton.

Tate will have plenty of help. RB Jon Cornish took over the starting role three quarters of the way through last season, and looked dominant at times, rushing for a league-high nine touchdowns. The Stamps wide receiving corps is loaded, even following the departure of Ken-Yon Rambo. Johnny Forzani had a breakout year in 2011, and he should be one of the league's most explosive players this season.

Defensively, the Stamps have talent across the board, but they did last year as well, and still gave up 31 and 27 points in two meetings with the Alouettes. Much like it is for Montreal's re-tooled defense, this is also a tough matchup for the Stamps veteran 'D'.

This is the highest total on the Week 1 CFL board, but it's warranted in my opinion. Both of these teams are loaded with talent and confidence on the offensive side of the ball, and should be able to march up and down the field, trading points for four quarters at McMahon Stadium on Sunday.

Jim Feist

Cleveland Indians vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Cleveland Indians

Cleveland is still in the pennant race hunt, 3 games behind the first place White Sox. This offense is 8th in baseball in on base percentage and Justin Masterson has a 1.64 ERA his last three starts. He's off a loss, but that start broke a streak of four consecutive quality starts for the Indians' pitcher. He's matched up against Brian Matusz (5-9, 5.24 ERA), who is 0-3 with a 7.04 ERA his last threee starts. The Orioles are 7-19 in Matusz's last 26 starts. Play the Indians!

Vegas Experts

Royals at Twins
Play: Twins

Francisco Liriano is a completely different pitcher since his short stint in the bullpen, and we'll back him here this afternoon. Since returning to the rotation, Liriano has held opponents to 1 earned run or less in four of his six outings, and is matched up against Chen for Kansas City who owns a 3-6 team start record away from home this year with an ERA north of six. Take the Twins at a very reasonable price.

Dave Price

Chicago Cubs -113

The Cubs have won the first 2 games of this series, and 4 of their last 5, and I expect them to earn a sweep against a Houston club that has dropped 23 of its last 33 overall and 58 of its last 76 on the road. Chicago's Wood is in great form. He's won back-to-back starts while giving up just 1 run in 13 innings. He has also been sensational against the Astros, allowing just 2 runs in his last 3 starts against them spanning 17 1-3 innings. The Astros are 1-7 in their last 8 at Wrigley. Take the Cubbies.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
Play: Chicago White Sox

Chicago is a sizeable dog here and offer plenty of value as their is a solid plays against system here against New York. We want to plays against home favorites of -140 or higher off a home favored win by 2 or more runs at -140 or higher if they scored 4 or less runs and had 4 or less men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss by 2 or more runs if they scored 2 or less runs and had 4 or less hits and 4 or less men left on base. This complicated system has cashed 8 of 11 for the dog at a nice price, including 6 of the last 7. The Sox have the #1 road bullpen and road defense in the league. Gavin Floyd and Phil Hughes is a good matchup but Floyd has shown he can do well here winning his only 2 starts allowing just 4 runs in 15 innings. Look for Chicago to take the finale here as a nice dog.

Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants -144

The Giants have lost back-to-back games since winning four in a row to start the week, but I like them to get back in the win column here with Vogelsong on the mound. The Giants are 9-1 in his last 10 starts, including 6-0 at home during this stretch. Also, he has given up three earned runs or fewer in 11 straight starts. The Reds haven't received the same kind of consistency from Arroyo. They have dropped four of his last six starts overall and four of his last five on the road. He has allowed four earned runs or more in five of his last nine outings. The Giants are 27-10 in their last 37 games as a home favorite and 18-4 in their last 22 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Take San Francisco.

Scott Spreitzer

Milwaukee Brewers -149

I was bummed when Josh Collmenter was moved to the pen following four weak starts to begin the season. But due to a short-handed Arizona rotation, the righthander is back on the starting bump for the second time in three appearances. Collmenter has been punished for 21 earned runs and 36 base runners in five starts this season, spanning just 22 1/3 innings. That's an 8.48 ERA & 1.61 WHIP and he owns a horrible 2.83 HRs per 9 IP mark. He'll face a Brewer lineup that may not be as strong as last year's, but does average 5.09 rpg in home day games in 2012. Yovani Gallardo has been on a tear over most of his last 10 starts, posting a 3.29 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and a 9.14 Ks per 9 IP average. His team is a perfect 8-0 when Gallardo has toed the rubber against the Diamondbacks and the righty owns a 1.23 ERA & 0.96 WHIP in those outings. Finally, Milwaukee is on a 21-7 run in Gallardo's last 28 home starts. There are times when I believe a -150-ish favorite is well short of where it should be. This is one of those situations. I'm recommending a play on the Brewers on Sunday.

Wunderdog

Phoenix at Washington
Pick: Phoenix +5.5

The Washington Mystic have reached the point where they are as bad as Tulsa. The Mystic are 3-23 over their last 26 games, so to be favored against anyone at this point is certainly crediting them with much more than they have accomplished. Phoenix has had to endure injuries all season long to key players, but this team is starting to adjust and the new group is starting to develop some chemistry. The Mercury have recorded four straight ATS wins including one vs. this same Washington team. The Mercury, after averaging an un-Phoenix-like less than 70ppg in six straight, have gotten it going on the offensive end scoring 80 or more in each of their last four. That presents a problem for the Mystics who have scored 80 points in just two of their last 25 without overtime. Mercury has been at their best off a day of rest at 20-7 ATS in their last 27, while Washington is now 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. a team with a losing record. Play on Phoenix.

Tony Stoffo

White Sox vs. Yankees
Play: Over 10

Free Play - Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees Here we have another game while the weather conditions can have a major effect on the outcome. I grew up in New York and when you get a day while the tamps are in the 90's with a high dew point also thrown in - will make for tough conditions for today's starters to handle - yesterday I told you that the starters in the Nationals/Braves game would have a major problem with the high heat index and Strasburg had to leave the game in the 4th inning to due heat exhaustion. Plus add in the fact how the ball travels in day games at Yankee stadium will only add to a higher scoring game and a highly recommended play on the over here today.

Jack Jones

Detroit Tigers +112

The Detroit Tigers are showing solid value as an underdog to the Tampa Bay Rays Sunday. I believe Detroit has the edge on the mound in this one with talented rookie Drew Smyly over Alex Cobb.

Smyly has posted a 4.48 ERA and 1.332 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Those numbers are a bit inflated due to a poor start at Texas his last time out, giving up 6 earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. He'll be much sharper at Tampa Bay this time around.

Cobb is 3-4 with a 4.73 ERA in seven starts this year. He's nothing more than a fill-in starter for the Rays, and really shouldn't even be in the big leagues. Smyly gave up one earned run over 4 innings of a 7-2 win over the Rays on April 12th.

The Tigers are 37-14 in their last 51 Sunday games. Detroit is 4-1 in their last 5 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. The Rays are 1-8 in their last 9 vs. American League Central. Tampa is 0-6 in their last 6 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rays are 0-5 in their last 5 games as a favorite. Tampa is 1-4 in Cobb's last 4 starts. Bet the Tigers Sunday.

Rob Veno

Boston at Seattle
Play: Over

The lack of offense in Safeco Field has been a topic of discussion inside the sabermetric community this week as pitchers have had more than the normal success here this season. Seattle has now gone under the total in eight consecutive games and Manager Eric Wedge had a 20+ minute meeting with his club prior to batting practice yesterday to see if he could get the offense jump started. Their three runs, .231 game batting average and .590 game OPS aren’t exactly what the skipper had in mind but today looks like a real opportunity for Mariners run production to break through. Boston starter Felix Doubront has not been very good over his last four games allowing a whopping 57 total bases in the 23 inning span. The lefty has a 1.52 WHIP and 6.65 ERA in those contests with location being an admitted problem in his last start. Safeco as mentioned above has been a park that among other things eats up fly balls but Doubront’s 10 long balls yielded in his last 41 innings and at least one in eight straight games is alarming. Figure the M’s to be good for 4+ runs here against Doubront and the mediocre Red Sox pen. Seattle southpaw Jason Vargas and his fly ball ways have benefited from his home park as his enormous number of 21 home runs allowed shows a lopsided split of 16 road/5 home. However, he has allowed all five of those in three home starts this month against the less than dynamic offenses of Oakland, the LA Dodgers and San Francisco. Boston’s lineup has done some damage to him in the past and certainly they possess the capability to do some here. The Bosox offense was on a huge 10 game tear prior to this series where they hit .306, had a .953 OPS and averaged 7.4 runs per game. Look for them to get back to that type of production today against a somewhat struggling Vargas and worn down bullpen.

John Ryan

Chicago White Sox at New York Yankees
Prediction: Chicago White Sox

5* graded play on the Chicago White Sox as they take on the New York Yankees set to start at 2:05 PM ET. The Yankees are struggling right now and they have failed to distance themselves from the rest of the contenders in the American League East entering the upcoming all star break. The second place Orioles picked up the perfect match for their DH power outage acquiring Jim Thome from Philadelphia for two minor league prospects. Thome ranks seventh on the all-time home run list with 607 and is a great veteran teammate for the Orioles to have on their roster. The Yankees need to pay attention.

The White Sox have been red hot going 6-1 over their last seven games and have not yet reached a level of performance where I feel they could fall flat. They face right-handed Gavin Floyd, who has posted a 2.50 ERA and a 1.222 WHIP striking out 18 batters in his last three start spanning 18 innings of work. He has not allowed an earned run in his last two starts spanning 13 ⅓ innings of work. I strongly believe he will dominate the Yankees in this start and the White Sox will win.