Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, July 11,2010

Jim Feist

PICKS: (952) NEW YORK METS
REASON FOR PICK: The Mets would sure like to win this final game of the first half of the season so they can close the gap to just four games between them and the Braves. The Braves are one of the surprise teams this year in the NL. After a few years of mediocrity, the Braves have the most wins in the NL at 52 and the biggest lead of any division frontrunner in baseball. The Braves also have the biggest run differential in the NL (+72). The Mets were shutout on Saturday by Tim Hudson, 4-0. Now they turn to their ace, Johan Santana. Santana has had a good year with a 6-5 mark and 3.15 ERA. But the southpaw has had his troubles against the Braves, going 1-5 in his career. Derek Lowe brings his sinker ball to the mound today. As goes that sinker, goes Lowe. Lowe has nine wins this season which is great, but he also has seven losses. And, despite a nice 2.75 ERA his last two games, he is 0-2. Lowe is 3-4 lifetime against the Mets with a 7.01 ERA. The Mets seem to hit Lowe hard over his career and after getting shutout on Saturday I look for the Mets to bounce back here with a win on Sunday

Craig Trapp
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays (MLB) - Jul 11, 2010 1:05 PM EDT
Play: Total: 9.5/102 Over Pick Title:

Over 9.5 BOS/TOR: First two games of this series has scored a total of 31 runs as these two split lopsided wins. The rubber match will also be a high scoring game as both today's starters and even the bullpen are going to get drilled. Matsuzaka goes for BOS and tries to turn around what has been three bad outings as his ERA has ballooned to 4.71. He will be faced by Litsch who is 0-3 and has a plus 7.00 ERA. Both bullpens have been way overused the past week and these lineups will take advantage of bad pitching as this one goes way over this total.

GOLDENCONTENDER /Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals (MLB) - Jul 11, 2010 1:35 PM EDT
Play: Money Line: -113 Washington Nationals Pick Title: SUNDAY FREE PLAY + BIG 100% SYSTEM INFO BELOW
On Sunday the free play is on the Washington Nationals. Game 954 at 1:35 eastern. The Nationals blowout loss on Saturday sets them up in a solid system here today. What we want to do is play on certain home teams off a home dog loss by 5 or more runs if they scored 5 or more runs and our opponent is off a road favored win and scored 10 or more runs. This system has been very successful the past few years. The Nationals should take the rubber game here today as they have L. Hernandez making that start. The Nationals have won 9 of his 10 home starts this year and he has a 2.10 home era. Today Hernandez takes on San Francisco lefty Bumgarner. Washington hits left handed pitching better than rightys and have a solid 2.95 home bullpen era. With the Giants having lost 11 of 17 times on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 we will take the Nationals here today. For the free play on Sunday take the Washington Nationals. RV

BRETT ATKINS

Today's free winner comes to you in the form of the A's as I go with them to get the win over the Angels in Oakland.
Trevor Cahill is having a fine season for the A’s, posting an 8-3 mark and 3.17 ERA as we sit here in the final day before the All-Star break.
Cahill is 4-1 at home this season with a 2.52 ERA and in day games, he’s 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA. Despite an ugly outing in his Tuesday start, Cahill had won eight of his previous nine starts and held the opposition to four runs or less in all nine of those games.
On July 10, Cahill held the Angels to one run on six hits in eight innings of a 6-1 victory and in his five career starts, the A’s have won four. With Cahill on the mound, Oakland is on streaks of 8-2 at home, 5-1 in his last six, 7-1 when he pitches the third game of a series, 11-3 when he faces a winning team and 6-2 against A.L. West teams.
Go with Cahill to deliver a gem and play the A’s in this one.

4♦ OAKLAND (on a 1♦ to 5♦)

JEFF BENTON

For Sunday, we’ll back the Astros and the red-hot Wandy Rodriguez in a virtual pick-em contest against the Cardinals.
Rodriguez (like the rest of his team) got off to a terrible start to this season, but he’s been brilliant in his last three outings, going 3-0 with a 0.95 ERA. He held the Giants, Brewers and Pirates to a combined four runs (two earned), 15 hits and four walks while striking out 19 in 20 innings. Rodriguez has always had the kind of stuff to dominate any lineup, but for the first two months of 2010, he couldn’t find his strikeout pitch. Clearly, he’s found it in his last three starts.Rodriguez has faced the Cardinals twice this season, and the Astros split those two contests. And despite just a 4-10 career record against St. Louis, Rodriguez has actually pitched fairly well, posting a 4.29 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.St. Louis hands the ball to rookie Blake Hawksworth, who is 2-5 with a 4.88 overall, including 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in his four starts. The right-hander has pitched five innings or less in three of those four starts – and hasn’t gone longer than six innings yet – which is a big deal because the Cardinals bullpen has been a mess this week and sports a 6.67 ERA over the past 10 games.
The Astros enter this game having won six of their last seven home games and 13 of Rodriguez’s last 18 home starts. They’re also 5-1 in the last six meetings with St. Louis this season and 8-3 in the last 11 series clashes in Houston.

(based on a 1♦ to a 10♦ Rating)

5♦ HOUSTON ASTROS

CHUCK O'BRIEN

Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from the City of Brotherly Love, as I’ll play the Phillies on the run line (-1½ runs) in their series finale with the Reds.Philadelphia left-hander Cole Hamels sure hasn’t had an All-Star-type first half of the season, as he’s just 6-7 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts. However, if there’s one team Hamels could’ve hand-picked to conclude his first half and build confidence going into the All-Star break, it’s the Reds. Hamels is 5-0 with a 1.50 ERA in six career starts against Cincinnati, and the Phillies won all six games (five by more than one run).Hamels has faced the Reds twice at Citizens Bank Park and all he did was lead Philadelphia to victories of 5-0 (in 2008) and 22-1 (in 2009), yielding just that one run and six hits in 16 innings.As for Cincinnati starter Matt Maloney, he was recalled from Triple-A this week for the first time this season and suffered a 3-0 loss at the Mets on Wednesday. Since a strong big-league debut last June 6 (4-3 home win), Maloney has posted an ERA over 5.00 in seven big-league starts, with the Reds losing five times (all by multiple runs).
The lefty has surrendered 10 home runs in his eight career starts over just 46 1/3 innings, and now he’s pitching in a ballpark where the ball flies over the wall very frequently (especially in day games). Maloney is also facing a Philly lineup that is hammering left-handed pitching lately (.316 average last 10 games prior to Saturday).
In losing the last two games in brutal fashion, the Reds have now dropped five of their last eight on their 10-game road trip (which ends today). Meanwhile, 13 of Philadelphia’s last 17 victories have been multi-run blowouts. Also, the Phillies are on a 13-5 roll against Cincinnati, winning nine of the last 11 at Citizens Bank.

3♦ PHILLIES (-1 1/2 runs) (on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)

By Bobby Maxwell

Today's FREE winner comes from the N.L. West as I go with the Padres on the road in Colorado to take care of the Rockies.
The Padres are fighting to stay ahead of the Rockies in the N.L. West standings. Today, they will get a strong outing from lefty Clayton Richard (6-4, 3.00 ERA) as they close the first half of the season with a victory in Colorado.
Richard is 3-1 on the road this season with a 2.98 ERA. He wasn’t very good in Washington on Tuesday when he gave up five runs in six innings of a 6-5 loss. But he was very good in his three roadies before that, giving up just two runs in 20 innings. He’s already faced the Rockies three times this season, holding them to three runs or less all three times, including a June 30 start when he allowed two runs in seven innings and struck out 10 en route to a 13-3 victory.Jeff Francis goes for the Rockies and he was also opposite Richard in that June 30 start in San Diego when he allowed eight runs in three innings. In his last nine outings against the Padres, the Rockies are just 3-6 and Francis has allowed five runs or more five of those nine games. With Richard on the hill, San Diego is on runs of 7-3 against the N.L. West, 8-1 against winning teams and 4-1 after getting four days off. Meanwhile, Colorado is just 0-5 when Francis faces N.L. West rivals and 1-5 in his last six in the third game of a series. San Diego is 5-2 when they face Francis in Colorado and 10-4 when they see him anywhere.
Let’s go with the Padres and Richard to win this one today.

3♦ SAN DIEGO

MARC LAWRENCE

GAME: St. Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros Jul 11, 2010 2:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Houston Astros
Offered at: -105 BetJamaica
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: Houston w/Rodriguez
Note: The Astros and Cardinals conclude their three game series Sunday afternoon in Houston when Wandy Rodriguez takes on Blake Hawksworth. Rodriguez takes the mound in terrific KW form with four walks and 19 strikeouts in his last three starts. He is also 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA in this efforts. With Rodriguez at his best this time of the season *8-2 last 10 team starts during July), look for Hawksworth to dip to 1-4 in his career team starts here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Houston

Al McMordie

GAME: Chicago Cubs @ Los Angeles Dodgers Jul 11, 2010 8:05PM
SPORT: Major League Baseball Picks
PICK: Los Angeles Dodgers
Offered at: -140 Belmont
REASON FOR PICK: At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. Righthander Vicente Padilla was named the Dodger's opening day starter (surprisingly) and then proceeded to completely underwhelm in his first four starts (1-1 with a 6.65 ERA) before heading to the DL with a nerve problem in his throwing arm. But since returning in mid-June, Padilla has found his stride and, after an initial so-so start on June 19 (obviously shaking a lot of cobwebs), he's now had three dynamite outings in a row and nobody could be happier than his coaches and teammates as he gets a chance to pull his team closer to the division-leading Padres heading into the second half. When they initially scheduled this game as the last game before the break, Major League Baseball must have envisioned a classic battle between two teams that would be in the mix, but only one such team is showing up tonight as the Cubs have been a huge disappointment in the first half and in fact one of the only good things about their first three months has been the surprising success of righthander Carlos Silva. But Silva's fairy tale season is beginning to fade as he's just 1-2 in his last five starts and his team is only 1-4 in those. Silva is probably the #1 candidate for a second half meltdown as after all, we're talking about a guy who, before this year, was 60-64 with an ERA around 4.7 runs. Let's also not forget how bad his team is right now. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 8 runs bet. Angels and Oakland

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Braves again Saturday. Sunday it's the Braves.

The deficit is 680 sirignanos.

Hondo

Slumping Hondo staggered to his fourth straight de feat yesterday when the Dodgers went down meekly against the Cubs, causing the deficit to expand to 970 torgesons.

Today, he'll close out the front nine by double-dip ping with the Braves and Cubs -- 10 units apiece on Lowe and Silva.

ROCKETMAN

Free play

Play On: LA Angels -105 (Weaver/Cahill) Listed

LA Angels are 45-22 the past 3 years when playing on Sunday. LA Angels are 86-37 in days games the past 3 years. LA Angels are 41-20 in the month of July the past 3 years. Oakland is 14-31 since 1997 and 4-15 the past 3 years when the total is 7 or less. Oakland has lost 4 of their last 5 games overall. Jered Weaver is 8-4 with a 2.97 ERA overall this year and has a 2.66 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on the LA Angels today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Hollywood Sports
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Alouettes at Eskimos
Prediction: Over
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Montreal enters this game on the heels of their disappointing 54-51 double-overtime loss to Saskatchewan in the rematch of last season's Grey Cup. That game proved two things: the Alouettes can still score but they are vulnerable on defense as that game was tied 40-40 at the end of regulation. Veteran QB Anthony Cavillo still has got it as he threw for 368 yards on 28 of 42 passing. Last season's top scoring offense in the CFL (34.2 PPG) will still put up plenty of points this year. But the defense allowed the Roughriders' QB, Darian Durant, to enjoy a 30-44 day for 478 passing yards. In fact, Saskatchewan produced a whopping 657 total yards of offense. Eskimos' QB Ricky Ray looks to have a big season leading an offense that has the potential to be dynamite with a super set of wide receivers. Stamps led the CFL with his 1402 reception yards last season. He is joined by Kamau Peterson who was 3rd in total receiving yards and 2nd in catches just two years ago. But the exciting "X-Factor" is the return of Campbell who took a run with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season. The former Georgia Tech star blossomed in his rookie season in Edmonton in '08 by leading the CFL with his 22.6 yards-per-reception average. Add into the mix Jason Barnes who had eight receptions for 99 yards and two TDs in preseason. Coach Richie Hall has taken over the defensive coordinator duties while Edmonton has seen a number of personnel changes on defense. However, it may take a few weeks for the CFL's #5th ranked defense from last season to improve. For this Sunday night contest, expect an old-fashioned, Canadian Football League scoring fest.

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Orioles at Rangers
Prediction: Under
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Baltimore's Jake Arrieta has just a 2-2 record with a 4.96 ERA and 1.59 WHIP for the season. But Arrieta is much better away from Camden Yards as evidenced by his 3.86 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .238 opponent's batting average as opposed to his 6.06 ERA, 1.84 WHIP and an opponent's batting average of .297 at home. He faces off against C.J. Wilson who has been very consistent this season with his 7-4 record with a 3.24 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Wilson enjoys a 2.41 ERA over his last three starts. He should fare very well against a Orioles' club that is hitting just .236 against lefties when on the road.
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Both of these starting pitchers share a deeper sabermetric statistic that we consider important. Isolated Power (ISO) is a sabermetric determined by slugging percentage minus batting average. This metric identifies the net percentage of hits that are going for extra-bases. Just as slugging percentage privileges homeruns over triples and triples over doubles, this metric maintains that weighted-value system. The MLB ISO average is in the .145-.155 range. For pitchers, low ISOs are good and high ISOs are bad. Arrieta and Wilson have low ISO's of .134 and .097 respectively which indicates they both have been very stingy regarding giving up extra-base hits. Why are statistics like ISO helpful for us? The importance for sabermetric statistics like this is that it exposes a deeper picture regarding the expected future performances of starting pitchers. Most bettors evaluate pitchers based on a starter's Won-Loss record and ERA. By analyzing statistics like ISO, we get a better sense as to why a pitcher has a certain W-L record or ERA which produces a more sophisticated perspective when now evaluating a pitcher's future.

Larry Ness
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Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Boston Red Sox
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The Red Sox have been decimated by injuries and while the three-day break will be welcomed, key Boston players are not coming back soon (or at all). Boston won 14-3 on Friday night in Toronto but the Jays bounced back yesterday afternoon, winning 9-5. The rubber game of the series goes today, as Matsuzaka faces Jesse Litsch. Matsuzaka is not the same pitcher who went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA in 2008 (Red Sox were 23-6 in his starts and his moneyline mark of plus-$1,353 was 4th-best in MLB that year). He went was just 4-6 with a 5.76 ERA in 12 starts last year (team was 5-7) and 5-3 with a 4.71 ERA in 11 starts this year (team is 6-5), as injuries have continued to plague him (nothing new to Red Sox fans!). However, Dice-K is 5-1 with a 3.51 ERA in his career vs the Jays (team is 7-1 in his eight starts) and he's facing a Toronto team which is just 7-14 in 2010 as a home dog. Jesse Litsch starts for Toronto and the good news is that he's 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA in six career games vs the Red Sox, including 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA in three home starts against them. The bad news is, he's struggled to recover from surgery that ended his season last June. Litsch was 13-9 with a 3.58 ERA back in 2008 but after just two starts in 2009, underwent Tommy John surgery. He finally returned to the mound for the first time in the majors on June 13 at Colorado. He's made five starts this season, going 0-3 with a 7.30 ERA (team is 1-4). Litsch hasn't won since September of 2008 and manger Cito Gaston hardly sounds optimistic. "I?m not going to let him work it out (until he struggles even more) then he?ll lose all the confidence he has,? Gaston told the team?s official website. ?One good (start), one bad, you might let him work it out. But if he starts throwing back-to-back (bad outings) and gets beat up, that?s not good for him either.? I'm going with the Red Sox.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Netherlands @ Spain
PICK: Over

There are many options when wagering on soccer; this play is based off Pinnacle Sports Book on the "over" 2 goals +101:

First off, I'd like to thank everyone that's joined me for the 2010 World Cup! It's truly been a special one for me. I've had many big *10* WINNERS including my ONE AND ONLY W.C. "TOTAL OF THE YEAR" on the Argentina/Germany "over" (4-0 German destruction) and my "GAME OF THE YEAR" on Netherlands over Uruguay!

I'm also JUST coming off my *10* "TOP TOTAL" on the Spain/Germany "under" (1-0 laugher).

I'm 17-8-5 (67%) with my paid/free 2010 World Cup picks…and guess what?! It's not over folks!

I've just posted my *10* WORLD CUP WINNER!

Don't miss out!

But back to business: What more can be said about these two sides that hasn't literally been said millions of times by every news and sporting agency across the globe already?

Netherlands is a massive underdog here as oddsmakers aren't giving them much of chance to score against the stingy Spaniards.

However, I believe the Dutch will find the back of the net in this one, which in turn will force Spain to open it up itself.

On the other side of the pitch: Remember, this is a Holland club that beat Brazil, and then a tough Uruguay team in the semi's, 3-2!

Some would suggest that the Netherlands haven't looked "up to par" in either of their last two victories and are "lucky" to be in the Final; to that I say: WHAT?!

Brazil is a monster; any team would have a tough time against it, including Spain. The fact that Netherlands knocked it off the way that they did is a testament to how deep and talented this club is.

Bottom line: Neither side has won the World Cup; I believe both will be pushing the tempo on Sunday; consider a second look at the OVER 2 goals +101 in the 2010 World Cup Final!

Scott Rickenbach
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Reds @ Phillies
PICK: Phillies -1.5
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The Phillies are looking to sweep this four game set from the Reds with yet another victory this afternoon. While the first three games in this series have all been tight, we feel that is giving us line value for backing an expected blowout this afternoon. The Phillies are very pricey on the money line this afternoon but by taking them on the run line (we feel strongly that they win this game by two runs) we are able to get back a plus money return with Philadelphia. Cole Hamels gets the start for the Phillies and he’s provided a quality start in 9 of his last 12 outings. He’s also a perfect 5-0 against the Reds in his career with an amazing 1.26 ERA as Hamels has held Cincinnati to a .150 batting average! Look for him to dominate again in this one and, at the same time, the Phillies should have very little trouble with the offerings of Cincinnati’s Matt Maloney. The Reds left-hander has made just 8 starts in his career and he’s compiled a 4.86 ERA and been hit hard at a .284 clip. Maloney’s only two career daytime starts have been ugly. He’s lost both while compiling an 8.49 ERA and being clobbered at a .318 clip. More of the same here and the Phillies should win this one in a rout. Consider a small play on Philadelphia on the Run Line -1.5 runs on Sunday afternoon.

BEN BURNS

Netherlands @ Spain
PICK: Spain
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Having a few good friends from the Netherlands, I've been cheering for the Dutch since the World Cup began. I expected that they'd do very well in this Tournament and they certainly haven't disappointed.
That said, I expect Holland's magical run to come to an end on Sunday.

Give the Dutch credit for beating Brazil. That is never an easy task. However, with the exception of that game, they've been very fortunate with the teams which they have faced.
Last game, Holland faced an Uruguay team which was somewhat lucky to have beaten Ghana and which was playing without dangerous striker Luis Suarez.
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Prior to the Brazil game, the Dutch faced Slovakia, another team which wasn't expected to even make it that far. Group play saw them face Japan, Denmark and Cameroon. None of those three teams were very strong. That makes one win against an "elite" team and five games against "mediocre" teams.

Spain played in arguably a more talented group. Besides Spain, Group H teams included Chile, Switzerland and Honduras. Chile, in particular, was quite highly ranked. Since elimination play began, the Spaniards have faced Portugal Paraguay and Germany. Portugal and Germany were both considered to be very good teams and Paraguay was ranked higher than Uruguay, prior to the Tournament. Therefore, the Brazil game notwithstanding, I would argue that Spain has played the more difficult schedule.
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Spain entered the World Cup as the favorite to win it all. There was a good reason for that. They are an extremely strong team. They're talented offensively and very stingy defensively. In their game vs. Germany they limited the Germans to just five total shots and only two shots on goal.

That's very impressive, when considering that the Germans had just scored eight combined goals vs. England and Argentina.
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After his team was blanked, German coach Joachim Loew had this to say of Spain: "In the last two or three years they have been one of the best and most united teams. They move the ball well and we couldn't play the way we like to play."

In fact, Spain hasn't allowed a single goal since the end of the Group stage. By comparison, the Dutch have given up four goals since the Group stage finished.
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They say that "defense wins championships." In this case, I look for Spain to be the better defensive team and look for them to win their first World Cup. Consider Spain.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Padres +120

I like the Padres and Clayton Richard in this match up against the Rockies and Jeff Francis in Colorado. Richard is 6-4 on the season and currently has a 3.00 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. Rockies' starter Jeff Francis has been hit hard his last two appearances, giving up 8 runs to this Padres team on 6/30, then giving up 5 earned runs to the St. Louis Cardinals in his most recent appearance. Francis is now 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the season. Colorado hits well at home, but Richard should help neutralize that effect, plus San Diego's line up is built to face left-handed starters, and they have hit them well so far this season.

Tom Freese
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Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Minnesota Twins
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Minnesota starter Carl Pavano has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Twins are 13-6 their last 10 games as road favorites and they are 44-21 their last 65 games as favorites. Minnesota is 35-16 vs. AL Central teams and they are 28-10 their last 38 games as favorites of -110 to -150. Detroit starter Andy Oliver has allowed 13 runs in 13.2 innings of work in his 3 starts this year. The Tigers are 3-7 their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP off less than 1.15 and they are 3-8 their last 11 games as underdogs.

Jeff Alexander
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1 Unit on Red Sox -125
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Boston is struggling through some injuries right now, but they've got a good chance to pick up a win against Jess Litsch and the Blue Jays Sunday. Litsch is 0-3 in 5 starts this season with a 7.30 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. The Red Sox send Dice-K to the mound and while he doesn't have great numbers, he's still winning games for the Sox. Over 11 starts, Dice K is 5-3 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. The Red Sox might be banged up, but they should be able to get to Litsch enough to give Dice K some cushion to pick up the victory.

SPORTS WAGERS

Netherlands +3.00 over Spain

Netherlands +1.67 (to win the WC) over Spain

The Netherlands has been playing up and down to their opponents throughout this installment of the World Cup. During the group stage they never left 3rd gear. The Dutch narrowly, but confidently, defeated the likes of Denmark, Japan and Cameroon en route to a sweep of group E. In their Round of 16 match the 2-1 score line doesn't do the Netherlands any justice, as the lone Slovak goal came via an erroneous penalty kick in the dying seconds of the game. The Dutch then did the unthinkable in scoring two unanswered second half goals to claim a 2-1 victory over a heavily favored Brazil. They came out sluggish against the Uruguayans in their semifinal match but again scored two goals in the second half, this time to claim a 3-2 victory. The Spaniards have continually picked up momentum throughout the course of the tournament. Things certainly looked bleak for "La Furia Roja" when they dropped their opening match 1-0 to Switzerland. That result is still one of the biggest upsets of this World Cup and although it happened just 24 days ago, it seems like ancient history now. Spain responded with convincing victories over the Hondurans and Chileans to claim victory in group H. The Spaniards went on to win all three of their knockout stage matches by the slimmest of margins at 1-0. However, they completely dominated the impactful statistics in all three of those matches. Most impressively they have surrendered just nine shots on target and dominated possession 58-42% in matches facing elimination. The issue with Spain, however, is they are dependant on finding that perfect opportunity and making good on it. The Dutch are very capable of shutting down the Spaniards, as its defending enters this match rather underrated. Two of the five goals they have surrendered in the tournament came via penalty kicks and they were able to hold an electrifying Brazil to just one goal. The Dutch also have the advantage of seeing what "sitting back" did for the Germans and are full aware that they will have to push forward if they want to be crowned World Cup champions. The "Oranje" sport one of the best combos in the world of football in Snejder and Robben and you can rest assure they will leave an impression on this World Cup final. The Netherlands certainly aren't lacking confidence entering the match, as they are currently riding a 25-game unbeaten streak that extends over two years. It's hard to bet against the likes of David Villa, Andres Iniesta and Xavi (all Golden Ball nominees) but the fact of the matter is that Spain offers no value entering this match at just slightly over even money. The name of the game is value and that rests solely on the side of the Netherlands. They’re a capable underdog that has all the right tools to break through the Spanish midfield and defense. The Dutch have better than a puncher's chance in this one and taking 3-1 on them is just too hard to pass up. Hup Holland Hup! Play: Netherlands +3.00 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Netherlands +1.67 to win the World Cup (Risking 1 unit).

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San Francisco +1.06 over WASHINGTON
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The Giants are playing its best ball of the season with five wins in its last six games with only loss over that stretch coming against Stephen Strasburgh. The Giants aren’t just winning but they’re blowing away the opposition as evidenced by its last five wins by scores of 6-1, 6-1, 15-2, 9-3 and 10-5. Let’s also not forget that the Giants scored seven runs on Cy Young favorite, Ubaldo Jiminez one week ago. This team is seeing beach balls right now and they’ll face a very hittable Livan Hernandez. Hernandez is having a tremendous year but is a big risk as a favorite every time he takes the mound. The Giants ripped him apart earlier this year to the tune of seven hits and four runs in five innings and it’s also worth noting that current Giant hitters have 182 career AB’s against Hernandez. In those combined 182 AB’s, the Giant hitters have 64 hits for a BA of .352, an OPS of .977 and a slugging percentage of .588. The Giants will counter with a guy the Nats have never seen, Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner has an impressive 15/5 K/BB, and has completed seven innings or more in each of his three starts since his June call-up. It’s only three starts but Bumgarner’s command and groundball tendency (47% GB%) absolutely provide seeds of success. He’s also faced three tough offenses in the Red Sox, the Rockies in Colorado and the Brewers in Milwaukee. In those three starts the opposition hit just .210 off him and his ERA is 2.86. The Giants a pooch here is incorrect. Play: San Francisco +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

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DETROIT +1.06 over Minnesota
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The Twinkies are looking forward to the break more than any other team. The Twins will most certainly be in this thing after the break but they’re limping into it with four losses in a row and six losses in its last seven. The bullpen is running on fumes right now after the Twins whole staff has allowed six runs or more in each of its last seven games. Carl Pavano is having a strong year thus far and his pinpoint control is the main reason. He’s walked just 17 batters all year in 118 innings but he’s by no means dominant and he’s definitely showing signs of slowing way down. The Jays torched him in his last start and the Rays were very close to knocking him out a few times the start before that. Pavano is a guy who puts the ball in play the Tigers will have a much clearer idea of how to approach him this time around after he beat them in late April. The Tigers are also running good with five wins in a row and seven wins in its last eight, Andrew Oliver has made just three starts and because of one bad one he has a misleading ERA of 5.93. Fact is, he has two good PQS scores (see bottom of page for explanation of PQS and BPV) in his three major-league starts amid indications that misfortune has plagued him. The 4.25 xERA, 35% hit rate, and 63% strand rate testify to his lack of fortune. Also note that Justin Morneau is a no-go and that the Tigers are red-hot while the Twins can’t wait for tomorrow. Play: Detroit +1.06 (Risking 2 units).

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Cleveland +2.33 over TAMPA BAY
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The price on Justin Masterson is just too sweet to pass up on and it’s for that reason, among a couple others that the Tribe is certainly worth some consideration. Masterson (62 BPV, 2-5-1-4-1 PQS) has alternated PQS-DOM (dominance) and PQS-DIS (disaster) performances in his last four starts, giving him a 41%/29% PQS-DOM/DIS split. His struggles vs. lefties and his lack of control are problematic, but Masterson's skill level and 63% GB% ensure he is capable of dominating in any given outing and with this tag on him he’s a great risk. Jeff Niemann has compiled four consecutive quality starts. However, he continues to benefit from an inflated 82% strand-rate and depressed 24% hit-rate, contributing to a substantial gap between Niemann's 2.65 ERA and 4.07 xERA. Of course Niemann could dominate here and the Rays could go on to win handily. Having said that, this take-back on Masterson in the final game before the break is once again too juicy to pass up on. Big overlay. Play: Cleveland +2.33 (Risking 2 units).

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Montreal –5½ over EDMONTON
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After watching Saskatchewan rip apart the Lions yesterday, it sure is hard to imagine the Eskies doing anything against the 0-1 Als. Edmonton looked like a University school against the Lions last week and now they’ll have the unenviable task of playing the best team in the business that blew a 21-point lead to Saskatchewan last week and that has had an extra two days to prepare for this one. The Als offense is wickedly potent and while laying road points is seldom a good idea in any form of football, one could make an exception here. The Eskimos defense looks very shaky and when you consider that a very pedestrian Lions offense racked up over 400 yards on them, one can only imagine what this potent offense will do to them. The Eskies managed to score just 10 points and looked completely out of sync. Yes, they’ll be sharper this week but they’re taking a big step up in class and the Als will be sharper too and in now way will you see them blow a big lead again. Play: Montreal –5½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Bryan Leonard

San Francisco at Washington
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The Giants have broken out of their offensive funk in a big way the last 8 games totaling 61 runs. They put up 10 yesterday against the Nats. San Francisco has won 7 of the last 9 meetings here and 14 of 18 overall vs Washington.
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Livan Hernandez is having a very good year by his standards but he has really struggled against San Francisco in his career. In his last 5 starts against them he has allowed 25 earned runs in only 27.2 innings of work. Even in his career year of 2010 he has permitted 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his only start against San Francisco. Madison Bumgarner, a highly touted rookie is off to a solid start with the Giants. In his last outing he pitched 8 innings of shutout ball against Milwaukee.
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With the Giant bats in fine form we will back the rookie in the underdog role.
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PLAY SAN FRANCISCO